Strength Of Schedule: The Best and Worst Fantasy Football Matchups in November.
Matchups aren’t the end-all-be-all difference-maker in fantasy football land.
Things like elite volume and high-end talent can help overcome difficult matchups. Abraham Lincoln is believed to be the first man to subscribe to the adage of, “Start your studs.”
Then again, we do have eight weeks of defensive analysis in the books, and at a minimum directionally understanding which defenses tend to funnel more production to the pass vs. run game can mightily help when forced to pick between meh FLEXs during tough bye weeks.
Matchups aren’t the biggest piece of the puzzle when it comes to making fantasy football decisions, but they are still a piece nonetheless. Cool? Cool.
Without further ado: the toughest and easiest strength of schedules from Week 9 to Week 13 for QB, RB, WR, TE and even DST. (No kicker analysis. Never. Never ever. That’s where I draw the line.)
A full schedule list for all 32 teams can be found here; we’ll just break down the top five units in the ensuing paragraphs. As always: It’s a great day to be great.
Quarterback
Easiest schedules
- Patriots: WSH, IND, BYE, NYG, LAC
- 49ers: BYE, JAX, TB, SEA, PHI
- Texans: TB, CIN, ARZ, JAX, DEN
- Titans: PIT, TB, JAX, CAR, IND
- Saints: CHI, MIN, BYE, ATL, DET
Overly betting on Mac Jones and the Patriots’ 31st-ranked scoring offense doesn’t exactly sound like a good time, but the other four offenses all conveniently offer QBs who are available in a solid chunk of leagues:
- Brock Purdy (86% rostered in Yahoo leagues)
- C.J. Stroud (78%)
- Will Levis (6%)
- Derek Carr (38%)
Purdy and Stroud — probably in that order — deserve to be prioritized thanks to the reality that they have been the best performers of the group all season, although Carr probably represents the best bet for managers strictly looking at the next two weeks.
That said: Don’t bet against Levis putting together another boom or two sooner rather than later. After all, the rookie hasn’t even gotten a chance to show off his rushing skillz yet.
Toughest schedules
- Eagles: DAL, BYE, KC, BUF, SF
- Chargers: NYJ, DET, GB, BAL, NE
- Broncos: BYE, BUF, MIN, CLE, HOU
- Raiders: NYG, NYJ, MIA, KC, BYE
- Steelers: TEN, GB, CLE, CIN, ARZ
Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert are the sort of QBs in fantasy that you start no matter what — even if there’s a fire.
Elsewhere, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kenny Pickett will be challenged week after week for the near future. Credit to Russ for already having as many passing TDs this season as he did in all of 2022; just realize even then he’s just the QB14 in fantasy points per game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that mark dip even further during this tough upcoming stretch.
Running back
Easiest schedules
- Patriots: WSH, IND, BYE, NYG, LAC
- Browns: ARZ, BAL, PIT, DEN, LAR
- Rams: GB, BYE, SEA, ARZ, CLE
- Titans: PIT, TB, JAX, CAR, IND
- Buccaneers: HOU, TEN, SF, IND, CAR
The Patriots, Browns and Buccaneers already have pretty straightforward backfield situations, while the Rams are presently deploying a fairly evenly split two-back committee between Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman until Kyren Williams (knee, IR) hopefully returns in Week 11 when he’s eligible.
Ultimately, Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears are the real story here. The former remains the engine of this ever run-first Titans offense and just might be ready to really catch his stride if history is any indication.
Henry career yard per carry by month
- September: 3.9
- October: 4.6
- November: 5.1
- December: 5.5
- January: 4.9
Obviously Henry managers have already been firing up the RB13 in half-PPR points per game as a weekly start anyway; the real takeaway here is to stash his rookie backup if available — which he is in 51% of Yahoo leagues.
Spears is the Titans' only non-king RB to even receive a touch this season, indicating that his current role as more of a pass-first scat back could be expanded in a major way were Henry forced to miss any time.
That’s a scary thought considering just how good Spears has been with his opportunities on the ground this season:
- PFF rush grade: 79.8 (No. 13 among 59 RBs with 30-plus carries this season)
- Missed tackles forced: 0.38 (tied for No. 2)
- Yards per carry: 5.8 (No. 3)
- Yards after contact per carry: 4.2 (No. 3)
Spears joins De’Von Achane and Jaleel McLaughlin as the top-three RBs in those final three metrics. Each has benefited from small sample sizes … but then again this film is pretty gnarly!
It’s possible the Titans would find another early-down RB to lean on in the absence of Henry; just realize Spears would be pretty difficult to put near the fantasy bench with something close to 15 combined carries and target per week if he can keep this high-end efficiency up.
Toughest schedules
- 49ers: BYE, JAX, TB, SEA, PHI
- Saints: CHI, MIN, BYE, ATL, DET
- Bears: NO, CAR, DET, MIN, BYE
- Seahawks: BAL, WSH, LAR, SF, DAL
- Eagles: DAL, BYE, KC, BUF, SF
Difficulty of matchup doesn’t apply to people like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. Additionally, Kenneth Walker and D’Andre Swift are going to remain weekly recommended start options for the foreseeable future, even if Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker remain just a bit more involved than fantasy managers would prefer.
And then there’s this Bears backfield, which was a muddled mess during their Week 8 loss to the Chargers.
Fantasy managers can live with two-back committees in the year 2023, but three or more is when available volume becomes slim enough to make life in fantasy land difficult for all parties involved.
Khalil Herbert (knee, IR) is eligible to return in Week 10. Fifth in rushing yards over expected per Next-Gen Stats, Herbert should get every opportunity to reclaim his lead role, but whether or not he’ll be able to fully separate from this group — and survive against this brutal schedule — remains to be seen.
Wide receiver
Easiest schedules
- 49ers: BYE, JAX, TB, SEA, PHI
- Patriots: WSH, IND, BYE, NYG, LAC
- Cowboys: PHI, NYG, CAR, WSH, SEA
- Colts: CAR, NE, BYE, TB, TEN
- Titans: PIT, TB, JAX, CAR, IND
There are four main WRs involved here who are available on more than a few waiver wires and figure to take advantage of these relative cozy stretches:
- Demario Douglas (3% rostered on Yahoo): Ran a route on a team-high 84% of Mac Jones’ dropbacks in Week 8. Non-zero-percent chance that Douglas emerges as the offense’s new go-to receiver in the absence of Kendrick Bourne (knee, IR).
- Brandin Cooks (41%): Has posted 3-36-1 and 3-49-1 receiving lines in two games since the Cowboys’ infamous Sunday night debacle against the Patriots. While Cooks only has (exactly) four targets in five of his six games this season, some true booms could be on the horizon if Dak Prescott continues to play like one of the better QBs in football.
- Josh Downs (63%): Has ripped off 7-72-0, 5-125-1, 5-21-1 and 6-97-0 receiving lines in his last four games. Pretty, pretty, pretty good for the rookie third-rounder, who is averaging more PPR points per game (12.4) than guys like Zay Flowers (12.2) and Calvin Ridley (11.4) this season.
- Treylon Burks (21%): Worked alongside Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips and Chris Moore in his first game back from injury in Week 8; just realize Burks should be the clear-cut No. 2 WR before too long, which suddenly looks a bit more promising with aDOT king Will Levis slinging the rock around.
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (1) gains yardage with this catch against The New Orleans Saints, Sunday., Oct 29, 2023, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Among the four, Downs actually profiles as having the highest weekly floor thanks to his clear-cut status as the No. 2 pass-game option in this Gardner Minshew-led attack. Overall, Minshew has fed Michael Pittman (55 targets) and Downs (42) well ahead of No. 3 WR Alec Pierce (24) during his time under center this season.
Toughest schedules
- Chargers: NYJ, DET, GB, BAL, NE
- Dolphins: KC, BYE, LV, NYJ, WSH
- Cardinals: CLE, ATL, HOU, LAR, PIT
- Raiders: NYG, NYJ, MIA, KC, BYE
- Broncos: BYE, BUF, MIN, CLE, HOU
Key parties on the Chargers and Dolphins don’t need to be bothered with silly things like matchup concerns, while the top-two WRs on the Raiders and Broncos respectively continue to largely be held back by underwhelming playcalling and in the former’s case occasionally horrendous QB play.
And then there’s the Cardinals, who certainly don’t have an easy upcoming stretch ahead, but might just benefit from the return of one Kyler Murray (knee) sooner rather than later.
Nobody and I mean NOBODY will be happier to see Murray back under center than Marquise Brown, who went nuts during the first six weeks of last season while DeAndre Hopkins was serving his suspension:
- Week 1: 4 receptions-43 yards-1 TD (6 targets)
- Week 2: 6-68-0 (11)
- Week 3: 14-140-0 (17)
- Week 4: 6-88-1 (11)
- Week 5: 8-78-1 (10)
- Week 6: 5-68-0 (9)
Overall, the artist known as Hollywood worked as the PPR WR5 before breaking his foot.
Read that last sentence again. Madness. Only Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson had more PPR fantasy points than Brown during the first six weeks of his Cardinals career. His pre-injury pace: 122-1,374-9 — and he looked good doing it!
Trailing only Chris Olave in unrealized air yards: Brown is one of my favorite buy-low options at the moment due to the possibility of acquiring him far closer to his current WR3 valuation. This schedule won’t make life all that easy in the near term, but the improvement in QB play and available volume at hand should soothe most concerns.
Tight end
Easiest schedules
- Bills: CIN, DEN, NYJ, PHI, BYE
- Saints: CHI, MIN, BYE, ATL, DET
- Texans: TB, CIN, ARZ, JAX, DEN
- Vikings: ATL, NO, DEN, CHI, BYE
- Packers: LAR, PIT, LAC, DET, KC
Hide your kids, hide your wife: Dalton Kincaid TE1 szn is here to stay. The Bills’ stud rookie is set up to work as a legit weekly top-eight option for however long Dawson Knox (back) remains sidelined.
It’s also fair to be optimistic about Dalton Schultz and Luke Musgrave putting together some solid weeks ahead after both disappointed in Week 8. Neither exactly has the total benefit of the doubt when it comes to consistency under center (especially Musgrave), but they’re at least checking two key boxes in terms of having a 1.) Winnable schedule, and 2.) Full-time role when healthy.
The real x-factor here is none other than professional vulture Taysom Hill. The Saints’ TE/RB/QB/whatever has received a nice boost in volume in recent weeks after fishing with five or fewer touches in all but one of his first five games:
- Week 6: 1-2-0 rushing, 7-49-0 receiving
- Week 7: 5-18-1, 4-50-0
- Week 8: 9-63-2, 1-14-0
Overall, only Travis Kelce (69.1) has scored more PPR points than Hill (51.5) over the past three weeks of action. What in the actual f*ck, man.
Expecting Hill to continue scoring so many rushing TDs (3 in his last 8 quarters) is probably wishful thinking, but his newfound pass-game role might just be here to stay. Overall, the 33-year-old jack of all trades didn't quite reach his robust route rates from Week 6 (69%) or Week 7 (75%), but his 43% mark in Week 8 was still far higher than expected given nominal starting TE Juwan Johnson was active for the first time since Week 3.
This Saints offense is finally showing signs of life and has racked up 109 total points in their last four games after only scoring 62 points during their first four contests of the season; Hill is deserving of weekly low-end TE1 consideration for however long he can hold on to this goal-line vulture/receiving TE role that he’s carved out for himself.
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Toughest schedules
- Rams: GB, BYE, SEA, ARZ, CLE
- Colts: CAR, NE, BYE, TB, TEN
- Eagles: DAL, BYE, KC, BUF, SF
- Steelers: TEN, GB, CLE, CIN, ARZ
- Broncos: BYE, BUF, MIN, CLE, HOU
Rams TE Tyler Higbee’s fantasy relevance hinges more on the health of Matthew Stafford (right thumb) than the schedule, but this certainly doesn’t help matters. Additionally, the Colts keep too many bodies consistently involved to ever really consider any as viable fantasy factors, and the Saints have largely ignored the position throughout the season aside from the occasional five target day for Adam Trautman.
Maybe Dallas Goedert projections deserve to go down a tad, although fading any of the Eagles’ key pass-catchers is the sort of decision managers do when they are just asking to get burned.
And then there’s the Steelers, who have given H-back Connor Heyward robust 96% and 80% route rates over the past two weeks with Pat Freiermuth (hamstring, IR) sidelined. This sort of usage would be good enough to overcome tough on-paper matchups … in a better overall pensive environment. Overall, Heyward has yet to crack 25 yards in a game this season and won’t be more than a TD-dependent TE2 during this tough stretch.
Defense and special teams
Easiest schedules
- Colts: CAR, NE, BYE, TB, TEN
- Saints: CHI, MIN, BYE, ATL, DET
- Dolphins: KC, BYE, LV, NYJ, WSH
- Vikings: ATL, NO, DEN, CHI, BYE
- Giants: LV, DAL, WSH, NE, BYE
The Colts’ status as the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense makes them a stay-away regardless of the cozy schedule. … Fantasy managers should strongly consider holding the Saints through their Week 11 bye: End-of-season matchups with the Falcons, Panthers, Giants and Rams through Week 17 more than makes up for a tough — but home — spot against the Lions in Week 13. … The Dolphins defense is getting stronger with CB Jalen Ramsey back in action; they are a prime pick-up ahead of Week 11 when many will likely let them hit the waiver wire. … Consistent QB play is going to make life tough for both the Vikings and Giants defenses; at least the former blitz-happy unit has proved to be a stellar real-life unit on its way to allowing 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games.
Toughest schedules
- Eagles: DAL, BYE, KC, BUF, SF
- Jaguars: BYE, SF, TEN, HOU, CIN
- Seahawks: BAL, WSH, LAR, SF, DAL
- Packers: LAR, PIT, LAC, DET, KC
- Ravens: SEA, CLE, CIN, LAC, BYE
Pretty far from ideal for all parties involved!
