The Best Free Agent RBs in 2023

Finding the best free-agent running backs

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Today, we look at the RBs, where Dwain analyzes the top free agents and a couple of names that are on the trade block.

Tier 1 – Every-Down Backs

Tony Pollard

Pollard doesn’t have the same draft pedigree as several peers on this list, but his underlying talent profile is the most well-rounded and electrifying. Only two RBs eclipsed an 80.0 PFF rush grade and a 75.0 PFF receiving grade in 2022: Austin Ekeler and Pollard.

43 RBs had at least 100 rushing attempts; 47 RBs had at least 150 routes

While Pollard isn’t a big back, he is exceptional at creating yards after first contact, ranking well above the three-year NFL average of 2.9 yards in every season. He isn’t a traditional bruiser, but has strong contact balance and can escape arm tackles regularly.

Those traits, paired with his acceleration and speed, make the fifth-year RB a threat to score from anywhere. Pollard has consistently registered runs of 10-plus yards, with 14%, 10%, 13%, and 16% over his first four seasons. The average for a top-12 fantasy RB is 12% since 2011.

What is even more impressive is the fact that Pollard has delivered these results on typical down and distances. His stats aren’t cushioned by plays where the defense is giving up the run to take away the pass. Over the last two seasons, he ranks No. 1 in PFF rush grade (88.7) on first and second down with three to 10 yards to go when the score is within three points.

In the passing attack, he doesn’t have a peer in the free agent market. He has high-end RB1-worthy yards per route run (YPRR) marks of 2.01 and 1.51 over the past two seasons. Pollard can run routes beyond the line of scrimmage – he ranked sixth in ADOT (1.5) for RBs – and he is a mismatch against many linebackers and safeties.

Pollard underwent surgery for the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the 49ers during the Divisional Round in late January. He should be ready to go ahead of training camp and will only be 26 years old in April.

The former fourth-round pick can make an impact on any team. Compared to his peers, his estimated average annual salary of $9M looks like a bargain. 

Pollard has high-end RB1 fantasy upside in a scheme that gives him 175-225 carries and most passing-down duties. Like Ekeler, he doesn’t necessarily need a bell-cow role to hit his ceiling potential.

Josh Jacobs

If you drafted Jacobs in fantasy in 2022, you likely made the playoffs based on that one genius selection. He led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB2 in fantasy scoring.

Jacobs flashed high-end yards-after-contact prowess as a rookie by averaging 3.5 yards per carry. However, that number slipped to 2.8 over his second two seasons before rebounding to 3.4 in 2022.

Outside of that rebound, most of Jacobs’ efficiency metrics align with previous years in his career. The big difference this past season was getting an 85% share of the Raiders’ rushing attempts, which enabled 340 totes. He also registered a career-high in route participation (53%), but his TPRR (18%) and YPRR (1.17) were in line with previous seasons.

The former first-round selection will only be 25 years old next season and figures to battle Saquon Barkley for the largest RB offseason contract.

Jacobs doesn’t possess the same dual-threat ability as Pollard, but he isn’t a zero in the passing game. He is a high-end early-down option who can punch in TDs inside the five-yard line. He is above average in the big-play and make-you-miss departments, which keeps long scoring plays on the table.

From a fantasy perspective, Jacobs will carry a high-end RB1 upside if he lands on a high-scoring team where he can maximize his ability to score TDs. The worst-case landing spot would be a low-scoring team with a top-notch receiving back.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is more of a “tweener” between Tier 1 and Tier 2. He definitely has every-down ability, shown by his 295 attempts (4th) and 76 targets (4th), but his underlying data suggests the former No. 1 overall NFL draft selection isn’t what he once was.

If there were only one concerning data point across his talent profile, it wouldn’t be a big deal. However, Barkley grades out as average to below average in almost every category. Historically speaking, these marks are more in line with a volume-dependent RB2.

Of course, we can’t lean too heavily into a bad efficiency year, especially for a soon-to-be 26-year-old. Barkley was better after contact (3.3 yards) and in attempts of 10-plus yards (12%) as a rookie, but he could easily rebound like did Jacobs last season.

The biggest concern around Barkley’s profile is his ability in the passing game. As a rookie, he demonstrated high-end upside with a 24% TPRR and 1.53 YPRR. Since then, he’s had two sub-20% TPRR and three sub-1.20 YPRR campaigns. Expectations were higher in 2022 considering the lack of receiving weapons on the Giants.

Barkley has some red flags, but he should get a hefty contract by RB standards and has an every-down skill set. That should be enough to provide him with mid-range RB1 upside regardless of the landing spot, but his talent profile is more replaceable than some might think. That creates a risk of losing snaps, similar to what we saw with Leonard Fournette last year.

Tier 2 – High-End Early-Down Backs

Miles Sanders

In Year 4, Sanders rebounded with career-highs in rushing yards (1,271) and rushing TDs (11) on his way to his second top-15 RB finish of his career.

The 25-year old back eclipsed an 80.0 PFF rush grade for the first time in his career. He has the fifth-best PFF rush grade out of 13 free agent RBs with at least 100 carries last season. In 2021, he demonstrated elite playmaking ability, with a 15% 10-plus yard attempt rate, and followed that up with the No. 9 mark at 13% in 2022. 

Sanders accounted for a career-high 58% of the Eagles’ rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, which was a major factor in bolstering his TD production. He scored zero times in 2021, but only handled 27% of the totes inside of the five.

In the receiving game, Sanders couldn’t get things on track after a promising rookie year when he delivered a 20% TPRR and 1.61 YPRR. He set career lows in TPRR (10%) and YPRR (0.29) in 2022. 

Jalen Hurts loves to run, and Philadelphia has three other high-end weapons, so we shouldn’t give up hope on Sanders in the receiving game. However, given our four-year sample, he likely isn’t a high-end target earner.

Sanders has high-end RB2 upside as the lead early-down back if he lands in a quality offense, but will profile more like a low-end RB2 to high-end RB3 option on an offense with questions.

Jan 22, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary (26) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during the fourth quarter of an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Devin Singletary

Singletary has hung onto the Bills' starting RB job over the last three years despite multiple attempts to replace him. While he isn’t a complete back, he is underrated by the masses as a runner.

Singletary has bested the three-year NFL averages in yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and 10-plus yard runs in every season of his career. He isn’t a burner, but his 16%, 13%, 11%, and 12% 10-plus yard rush rates indicate that Singletary can create big plays better than many NFL RBs.

He may never turn into a huge TD scorer, but the Bills have trusted him with 62% and 83% of rushing attempts inside the five-yard line the last two years. Whether that was out of necessity or because Singletary is good is unknown, but he has a respectable 12 TDs over the last two years on a pass-first offense.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to carve out a significant role in the Bills' passing game despite a sub-optimal receiving corps with only one major target earner – Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen’s willingness to scramble is certainly a factor, but Singletary’s bad PFF receiving grades tell us he hasn’t been able to maximize opportunities when they come his way.

Tier 3 – Upside With Injury History

Rashaad Penny

Penny only collected 57 attempts before suffering fibula and ankle injuries that ended his season, so his data doesn’t qualify for the 2022 rankings. However, Penny has an above-average 82.2 PFF rush grade for his career. 

Out of all RBs with at least 300 attempts since 2018, Penny ranks No. 3 in average yards after contact (3.8) behind only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. Over that same span, he registered a 10-plus-yard run on a sparkling 15% of attempts, well above the NFL average of 10.5%.

Of course, availability will be a big concern for any team taking a chance on Penny. The sixth-year RB has played 12, 10, 3, 10, and 5 games, which could hinder a team from investing big dollars or trusting him with a big workload.

Despite all that, the 27-year-old has the type of talent profile and first-round draft capital that should land him another job and keep us interested as fantasy managers. If he ever manages to play a full season as a starter, he has a higher ceiling than either back in Tier 2.

Damien Harris

Harris has yet to finish a full NFL season and doesn’t have as much upside as Penny, but he has early-down chops.

He registered career-lows across every rushing talent profile metric outside of yards after contact in 2022 as he battled through multiple injuries. Harris delivered PFF rush grades of 86.9 and 85.8 in 2020 and 2021, respectively – he can play when healthy.

Harris isn’t a plus in the passing game, but he isn’t an anvil. His TPRR and YPRR numbers are close to the three-year NFL averages for the position.

Tier 4 – Meh Talent Profiles With Every-Down History

David Montgomery

Montgomery regularly ranks among the NFL leaders in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.23). Unfortunately, the north-south explosiveness doesn’t match his east-west agility, which shows up in his subpar 10-plus-yard rush rates (9%).

In four seasons, the former third-rounder has never reached the NFL average in 10-plus yard rush rate. His 2020 17.7-point-per-game season looks like an outlier at this point, but separate coaching staffs have trusted him as the lead passing-down option.

There is still an outside chance that Montgomery finds himself in an every-down role in the right landing spot. However, his below-average talent profile will keep him at risk of losing reps. His best path to volume is likely via injury to a teammate rather than an outright takeover.

Kareem Hunt

A season ago, Hunt looked like one of the best backup RBs in the NFL, but life comes at you fast. In 2022, the veteran tallied his career's worst PFF rush grade after his efficiency metrics fell across the board.

Over the last two seasons, Hunt ranks 53 of 55 in PFF rush grade on first and second down with three to 10 yards to go when the score is within three points. In other words, Hunt's performance suffers when we remove some of the attempts that occur in obvious passing situations.

At age 28, Hunt is entering the twilight of his career, but he isn’t too old to come up with a rebound year. It just isn’t something we should go out of our way to project.

Tier 5 – Small-Sample Talents

Alexander Mattison

Mattison has three 80-plus PFF rush grades in his last three seasons and is above average in the 10-plus-yard attempt department. He has early-down RB2 upside if his role expands in a new home. The former third-rounder will only be 25.

D’Onta Foreman

Foreman registered a career-high 76.5 PFF rush grade in his sixth season in the NFL. He has slowly made his way back from a brutal Achilles injury and has RB2 upside as a TD- dependent banger in a good offense.

Tier 6 – Best of the Rest

Samaje Perine

Perine isn’t an explosive playmaker. Still, he has a decent all-around skillset that could make him a volume-dependent every-down back in the right situation. He could provide low-end to mid-range RB2 performance in a full-time capacity.

Jamaal Williams

Williams finished as the RB13 thanks to his 17 rushing TDs and injuries that kept D’Andre Swift off the field for a large chunk of the season. From a talent profile perspective, it is hard to imagine another finish this high – he ranks below the NFL average across most metrics.

Raheem Mostert

Mostert delivered career-highs in PFF rush grade and continued to demonstrate big-play ability, ranking fourth in 10-plus-yard attempts. He will be 31 when the 2023 season starts. Otherwise, he would slot in higher on the list.

Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson isn’t special in any regard compared to his peers, but he has managed to hang around the league for five seasons. He is a backup NFL RB.

Jerick McKinnon

McKinnon hasn’t shown much in the rushing department in a long time, but he is a viable passing-game weapon. He has three 1.50-plus YPRR seasons to his name now.

James Robinson

The sweetheart free agency pickup of the 2020 season (17.9 points per game) has seen his fantasy points per game and underlying data profile tumble in consecutive years.

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