The Best Free Agent TEs in 2023

Finding the best free-agent tight ends

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Today, we turn our attention to the TEs, where Dwain identifies the top options using historical data profiles for top-12 performers.

Top-12 Fantasy TE Data Profiles (2011 to 2022):

Tier 1 – Mid-Range TE1 Profiles

Dalton Schultz

Despite battling an MCL injury for almost half of the season, Schultz came through for fantasy managers when it mattered most. From Week 12 to Week 17, he averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game and notched three top-four performances.

Schultz finished the season as the No. 9 fantasy TE, demonstrating mid-range TE1 upside in his ability to earn targets when compared to data since 2011. However, his ability to squeeze additional value out of targets wasn’t as strong compared to his 2022 peers or historical thresholds.

Schultz 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

From Week 13 through the Divisional Round loss in the playoffs to the 49ers, Schultz returned to a full-time role. During that stretch, his average target share jumped from 17% to 22%. Schultz has also improved his TPRR over the last three seasons, averaging 15%, 18%, and 21%.

While target-earning isn’t an issue for Schultz, his YPRR over the last three years (1.11, 1.47, and 1.43) is just below the top-12 threshold for the position since 2011 (1.54). His average PFF receiving grade of 68.7 – which focuses on making the most of opportunities – echoes that sentiment.

Schultz has mid-range TE1 upside in a pass-heavy and/or high-quality offense (TD upside) as the No. 2 or No. 3 target. In a low pass-volume and/or low-quality offense, his value takes a significant hit due to his low-end efficiency profile.

Evan Engram

Engram took the fantasy world by storm as the TE5 in his rookie season, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game with 22% TPRR and 1.45 YPRR. 

His underlying data profile remained strong, along with his points per game (11.3 and 13.7) over the following two years, but injuries limited him to 19 total games. Then in 2020 and 2021, the former first-rounder fell to career-lows of 8.9 and 7.0 points per game, with his TPRR (15%) and YPRR (0.89) bottoming out in 2021.

This offseason, he signed with Jacksonville on a one-year prove-it deal for $9M at the age of 28, where he rebounded with a top-five fantasy finish.

Engram 2022 Data Profile  (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

From the most important perspective, target earning, Engram has now demonstrated mid-range to low-end TE1 ability in four of six seasons. 

As a playmaker, Engram hasn’t fully lived up to his high-end athletic profile. Engram is above average when it comes to yards after the catch (6.6) for tight ends, but historically he has operated as an underneath option, which played out again in 2022 with a 6.4 yard ADOT. When you add it all up, his 7.2 yards per target are below the top-12 historical threshold of 8.3 yards.

Engram offers a low-end TE1 profile that could push for mid-range TE1 status in a pass-happy offense with less target competition than Jacksonville. The Jaguars will add Calvin Ridley to Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in 2023, which could further dilute Engram’s offensive equity.

Tier 2 – Borderline TE1 Profiles

Mike Gesicki

Gesicki had three consecutive top-12 fantasy finishes entering the 2022 season. However, the Dolphins' offense required a tight end that could run block, which turned Gesicki into a passing-down-only option. He battled for slot reps in that role, and his route participation fell to a four-year low of 55%.

As a result, the former second-round draft pick notched his worst fantasy campaign since his rookie season, averaging a mere 6.0 points per game.

Gesicki 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

To get a full understanding of the soon-to-be 28-year-old’s potential in a new offense, we must rewind the clock to 2020 and 2021. In those two seasons, Gesicki delivered a 19% TPRR and 1.51 YPRR, both low-end TE1-worthy marks. He also registered 79.4 and 70.8 PFF receiving grades in those two seasons.

Gesicki hasn’t been much of a YAC threat (3.1), but he can attack deeper portions of the field, as indicated by his 10-plus-yard ADOT in three of the last four seasons. He is also a plus threat in scoring position, garnering 26% or more of the Dolphins' end zone targets in three of the last four years.

Gesicki has TE1 upside in a pass-first offense that isn’t concerned with his run-blocking ability. If he ever eclipses 80% route participation, he could push for a top-six finish with some TD luck.

Austin Hooper

Hooper finished as the TE27 thanks to a TE rotation on a run-first offense in Tennessee. However, his underlying data profile paints the picture of a player that could have more to offer under the right circumstances.

Hooper 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

Hooper has two top-six fantasy finishes already on his resume, with 10.1 and 14.6 points per game in 2018 and 2019 during his time with the Falcons. 

His move to Cleveland slotted him into a tight end rotation with high-first-round selection David Njoku in a run-oriented attack, which pushed his fantasy totals down. Hooper’s highest route participation with the Browns was 55%, but he had a career-high 21% TPRR in 2020.

If Hooper lands in an offense where 80% route participation is in play, he will offer sneaky TE1 upside in 2023.

Tier 3 – Upside TE2 Profiles

Foster Moreau

Moreau is a name the fantasy community has wanted to get excited about for years, but playing on the same roster as Darren Waller makes playing time tough.

Moreau 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

We have seen a decent sample of Moreau without Waller, including eight games this year where the fifth-year TE had an 83% route participation but only demanded a 13% target share. His TPRR was 14%, which matches his career average.

While Moreau hasn’t been a target earner, he has been excellent with the ball in his hands. He averages 8.9 yards per target for his career, which is what we see from top-three TE options. He is a yards-after-the-catch problem, posting top-12-worthy numbers each year of his career.

Moreau likely won’t suddenly demand more targets in a new offense, but in a creative offense, we could see his numbers padded with scheme-based targets. Of course, if he does take a step forward in the target-earning department, that would provide him with an upside the Tier 2 options don’t have.

Tier 4 – TE2 Profiles

Robert Tonyan

Tonyan broke onto the fantasy scene in 2020 with a top-three finish thanks to 11 receiving TDs. However, his TPRR and YPRR data have regressed in the last two seasons, and he finished as the TE20 in 2022.

Tonyan 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

As we look in the rear-view mirror, the 2020 season looks more and more like a fluke for the undrafted tight end. He hasn’t been a strong target earner in three seasons with a starting role. His highest target share is 11% and his best TPRR mark is 17%, both outside the top-12 range.

Despite his big 2020 TD campaign, he only accounted for 18% of the Packers’ end zone targets that season, which is his career high. That target share doesn’t point toward another TD outburst season in his future.

Tonyan doesn’t have a TE1 profile and will need a lot of luck to find fantasy relevance again.

Hayden Hurst

Hurst delivered his second-best season in terms of fantasy points per game, with 8.7, but the former first-rounder’s talent profile fell flat.

Hurst 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

Hurst missed almost four games due to a calf injury, and his average target share was 15% excluding those games. However, that is still not high enough for TE1 consideration; his TPRR accounts for missed time and falls below historical thresholds.

Unfortunately, there isn’t anything in his historical profile to suggest that 2022 was an aberration, with career-highs of 1.08 in YPRR and 17% in TPRR in seasons with at least 200 routes.

Hurst profiles as a backup-level talent for fantasy purposes, and his landing spot will only change his fit within the TE2 conversation.

Irv Smith Jr.

The former second-round selection out of Alabama only registered a 24% route participation in 2022, thanks to a preseason injury and the arrival of T.J. Hockenson via trade.

Smith will only be 25 next season, so someone will surely give him another opportunity, but his underlying data profile over the first 764 routes of his career aren’t encouraging. He has a 16% TPRR, 1.12 YPRR and 65.1 PFF receiving grade.

Tight ends can take longer than other positions to develop, but usually we see some sort of flash over their first three seasons. Smith is a name to keep an eye on, but his inability to ascend the Vikings' depth chart over his first two seasons is a concern.

Jordan Akins

Akins has never been able to earn a full-time role in his five-year career. He has eclipsed the 50% route participation threshold only once and has a career TPRR of 15%.

In 2022, he registered his second PFF receiving grade of 70 or better on his way to 7.8 fantasy points per game.

Akins 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

The veteran tight end has flashed upside in the YAC department by averaging over seven yards in three of five years. Moreau is more likely to earn a full-time role in a traditional offense where the tight end must block to play in heavy sets, but Akins could offer high-end TE2 upside in a pass-heavy attack.

Glossary:

ADOT = Average depth of target

Targets = Percentage of team targets

TPRR = Targets per route run

YPRR = Yards per route run

YAC = Average Yards after the catch

FPTS = Fantasy points per game

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