The Best Free Agent WRs in 2023

Finding the best free-agent wide receivers

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents and trade candidates. Today, we turn our attention to the WRs, where Dwain identifies the top options using historical data profiles for top performers.

Top-36 Fantasy WR Data Profiles (2011 to 2022):

Tier 1 – Mid-Range to Low-End WR2 Profiles

Tee Higgins

Higgins is under contract for the 2023 season, but trade rumors are swirling. The salaries for WRs exploded last offseason, and the Bengals are about to pay Joe Burrow huge money. Those two factors could push the team to search for a return on Higgins before the final year of his rookie deal.

If a team is willing to send a first-round or early second-round selection for Higgins, it wouldn’t be a terrible move for the Bengals. They could use that selection on another WR at a lower cost, which could be huge considering what they will soon need to pay Chase to remain with Burrow.

The third-year WR didn’t take the big step forward we were hoping for in 2022, instead flatlining or taking a step back across the board in his talent profile metrics.

Higgins’ 2022 Data Profile:

As a target earner, Higgins’ career TPRR of 21% puts him in the WR2-range, but his career-high is 22% (2021). His 1.99 career YPRR and average 80.1 PFF receiving grade are also firmly in the WR2 range.

Higgins could benefit in the target department if he didn’t play across from Ja’Marr Chase. He delivered a 26% target share in four games without Chase in 2022. This small sample doesn’t mean Higgins becomes a lock to ascend to high-end WR1 status, but it doesn’t hurt his case. 

The fourth-year WR is a mid-range WR2 profile that might challenge for low-end WR1 status in the right landing spot. His age pushes him to the top of Tier 1 despite performing at a lower level than the next two options.

DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins isn’t a free agent, but there have been reports that Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell wants to move on from the $34.4 million remaining on the WR’s contract over the next two seasons.

The 11th-year veteran – who ranks 36th all-time in receiving yards – might be hard for the Cardinals to extract much trade value from, thanks to his age (31) and recent injury history. The best suitor will be a team in a win-now window.

Despite potential longevity concerns, Hopkins’ performance in 2022 was undeniably great. After missing the first six weeks due to suspension, he dominated with the ninth-most fantasy points per game at WR (17.1). 

Hopkins’ 2022 Data Profile:

Hopkins checks the most important box for WRs – the ability to demand targets. Per PFF data, he averaged 10.3 targets (29%) in nine healthy games and ranked ninth in TPRR versus single-man coverage (42%). This was despite creating a step or more of separation on only 37% of routes, well below the league average of 51%. Hopkins doesn’t require separation to be considered open; he battled through tight coverage on 71% of his looks.

His 73.5 PFF receiving grade was the lowest of his career, thanks to a seven-year low averaging 2.8 yards-after-catch (YAC) and his second-lowest aDOT. That combination also led to his second-lowest yards-per-target season (7.7).

Unfortunately with WRs, it is hard to predict when the cliff will hit. We often don’t get a leading indicator, but Hopkins is in the window where deterioration can happen quickly. However, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith are examples of WRs who delivered high-end fantasy returns after Year 10.

Hopkins still has WR1 upside in the right offense thanks to his target-earning chops, but after factoring in age risk, he is in the WR2 conversation.

Keenan Allen

The Chargers currently project to be $19.8 million over the cap in 2023, which has put Allen’s $21.7 million cap hit under the microscope.

Allen’s age (31) will certainly play a factor in the Chargers’ decision, but when focusing on 2022 performance, the veteran demonstrated several WR1 traits.

Allen’s 2022 Data Profile:

There were concerns that Allen was slipping after a 1.77 YPRR and 77.5 PFF receiving grade in 2021. Both data points were seven-year lows, but he proved the doubters wrong as the No. 11 fantasy performer on a per-game basis.

Allen was still a high-end target earner in 2022, with an average target share of 27% in nine healthy outings. He was Justin Herbert’s clear No. 1 option, especially in clutch situations like third and fourth down, where he garnered a 38% target share.

The 11th-year veteran registered his highest yards per target (9.1) since his age-26 season in 2018. His 4.2 YAC per reception was in line with his career average (4.3), as was his 9.0 aDOT.

Allen is at the age where a sudden drop off could happen at any time, but playing inside from the slot on 65% of routes provides him a buffer. He saw 48% of his targets come against a linebacker or safety in primary coverage, the 12th most in the NFL. Even at 31, Allen should remain a mismatch in those scenarios.

Allen ultimately grades out as a mid-to-low-end WR2 for 2023 due to the risk associated with his age, but he still has WR1 upside in a high-end offense.

Jan 8, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) pulls in a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Tier 2 – Borderline WR2 Profiles

Jakobi Meyers

After scoring only two TDs in his first three seasons, Meyers finally got things going with six scores in 2022, and fantasy managers were rewarded with a career-high 13.0 points per game.

The undrafted prospect out of North Carolina State is the latest rags-to-riches slot WR to emerge from the Patriots' offense. Much like Julian Edelman, Meyers was originally recruited as a QB in college, a resume bullet New England seems to value.

Meyers finished as a WR3 this year but registered WR2-worthy marks in TPRR, PFF receiving grade, and YPRR.

Meyers’ 2022 Data Profile:

His three-year 23% TPRR suggests Meyers could be a WR2 fantasy option in a pass-heavy offense that primarily deploys 11 personnel looks. Despite playing in a balanced attack without high-end QB play, Meyers has already found a way to deliver two top-36 finishes.

The fifth-year WR isn’t just an underneath option – while he isn’t a deep threat, his 10.4 career aDOT tells us he can threaten the intermediate areas of the field. Meyers is below average after the catch (3.7 yards), which could turn some teams off at his projected price tag. However, he earns targets at a higher clip than any other option in this free-agency class.

Meyers is a WR3 option that could upgrade to WR2 status in a quality pass-first offense.

Tier 3 – Boom-Bust WR3 Profiles

Michael Thomas

After missing half of 2020 and all of 2021, Thomas stormed out to a strong start in 2022. He averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game thanks to three receiving TDs over the first three games before suffering a season-ending foot injury.

No team is further over the salary cap than the Saints at $57.4 million, making Thomas a post-June 1 cut candidate.

While Thomas was hot early in the season, his underlying data profile wasn’t as strong as his fantasy output. His 21% TPRR was the lowest of his career and a dramatic drop from 30% and 26% in 2019 and 2020.

Thomas’ 2022 Data Profile:

The soon-to-be 30-year-old posted the lowest PFF receiving grade of his career. Prior to 2022, his career low was 84.6. Thomas simply wasn’t able to add much value after the catch on his small opportunity sample, averaging an anemic 1.6 yards after the catch and 7.8 yards per target.

There is a chance Thomas can play up to a WR2 level in a new home, but there is a lot of bust potential, given his injury history and age.

D.J. Chark Jr.

Chark averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game and eclipsed 14 points four times in 10 healthy games with the Lions.

Chark’s 2022 Data Profile:

While he has never proven to be a high-end target earner, with a career-high 19% TPRR, he has something that is hard to find in the 2023 free agency class – speed. Historically, WRs own their aDOT, and Chark has the highest at 15.9 yards.

The former second-rounder out of LSU also has a top-six YAC (4.6) in the class, providing him with an interesting combination of skills that could make him a hot commodity. Chark can score from anywhere on the field.

Given his skillset, Chark doesn’t need to be a 25% target share player. He could provide WR3 upside in the 17 to 20% target share range in a pass-heavy offense with a high-end QB (think Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen). The sixth-year veteran had adjusted target shares of 21% and 18% in 2019 and 2020, so 17 to 20% is attainable if healthy.

Tier 4 – Borderline WR3 Profiles

Allen Lazard

Lazard delivered a career-high 11.7 fantasy points per game in his fifth season in Green Bay, which is the average for WR36 production since 2011.

With Davante Adams gone, Lazard also registered career-highs in route participation, TPRR, target share and PFF receiving grade. The undrafted WR’s talent profile straddled traits of WR3s and WR4s in 2022.

Lazard’s 2022 Data Profile:

He has above-average ability after the catch and demonstrated value in the end zone, leading the Packers with a 31% target share last season. However, he doesn’t offer field-stretching or big-play upside and ultimately showed his target-earning ability has limitations.

In the right landing spot, we could see Lazard push for another low-end WR3 finish, but his career talent profile still suggests a WR4.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster worked his way back into the low-end WR3 conversation, averaging 11.8 points per game in 2022, but that was far less than the upside many hoped for in the high-octane offense in Kansas City.

The veteran’s TPRR remained in line with the 18% average he delivered from 2019 to 2021, but the quality of targets and pass volume in the Kansas City offense helped push his YPRR to a four-year high.

Smith-Schuster’s 2022 Data Profile:

Smith-Schuster’s 5.9 YAC and 9.6 yards per target were back in line with his early-career numbers before the demise of Ben Roethlisberger. However, his inability to carve out a larger share of targets despite a challenged Chiefs’ receiving corps behind Travis Kelce means we can finally call his 23% target share season in 2018 what it is – an outlier.

Despite heading into his seventh season, Smith-Schuster will only turn 27 in the 2023 campaign. He is young enough to expect more productive seasons in a good landing spot, but the days of hoping for WR2 upside are far behind. 

Consider Smith-Schuster a WR4 with WR3 upside in optimal conditions.

Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (29) gets the stiff arm from Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (9) during the second quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Tier 5 – WR4/WR5 Profiles

Darius Slayton

Slayton has never been a high-end target earner, but he has big play ability. The four-year veteran averages 14.8 yards per catch and registered a career-high 10.3 yards per target, thanks to a 5.8 YAC average. His 1.79 YPRR was also a career-best.

Slayton’s 2022 Data Profile:

Richie James Jr.

James was thrust into action after rookie Wan’Dale Robinson was lost for the season. The fifth-year veteran responded well by posting a career-high 19% TPRR and was Daniel Jones’ favorite option against single-man coverage with a 35% TPRR. He has now eclipsed 1.65 YPRR in three straight seasons, albeit on a limited number of routes. He could make noise as a slot receiver on a depth chart without intense competition.

James’ 2022 Data Profile:

Mecole Hardman

Hardman has never been able to carve out a full-time role, despite the Chiefs' second-round investment and the team’s need for another WR to step up over the last four seasons. He has elite run-after-the-catch ability, averaging over 6.5 in YAC each season. If a team can develop him into a full-time option, he has upside even without a high-end target earning profile thanks to his big-play potential.

Hardman’s 2022 Data Profile:

Tier 6 – WR5 Upside with Small-Sample Profiles

Jauan Jennings

Jennings hasn’t demonstrated any elite traits in his three years in the NFL, but he was a man-coverage beater for the 49ers, gaining a step or more of separation on a whopping 70% of routes, well above the 51% NFL average. San Francisco signal callers looked his way 29% of the time he saw single-man coverage.

Jennings’ 17% TPRR and 1.37 YPRR are relatively impressive when you consider the intense competition for targets with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. The former seventh-rounder could flash in a new home with less competition.

Jennings’ 2022 Data Profile:

Ashton Dulin

Dulin has never been able to earn a significant role, but when on the field, he has impressed. His 19% TPRR and 1.60 YPRR over the last two years (237 routes) would put him in the WR4 range if we had a larger sample. Dulin will only be 26 next year, and if he lands on a roster with an open competition for the WR2 or WR3 spot, he could be a name we are discussing as a waiver wire addition early in 2023.

Dulin’s 2022 Data Profile:

Tier 7 – Best of the Rest

Jarvis Landry

Landry was never healthy in the 2022 campaign and notched his worst NFL season by far with career lows across every talent profile metric. The soon-to-be 31-year-old could be washed, but his 1.76 YPRR and 24% TPRR in 2021 provide hope for a WR protected from high-end coverages by slot duties.

Landry’s 2022 Data Profile:

Olamide Zaccheaus

Zaccheaus worked his way into a near every-down role, with a career-high 74% route participation in 2022. He has bested 1.45 YPRR in two of the last three years. The undrafted WR will be 26 when the 2023 season starts.

Zaccheaus’ 2022 Data Profile:

Mack Hollins

Hollins delivered some viable fantasy outings in 2022 and registered a career-high 9.1 points per game. Unfortunately, his underlying data points are all still in the WR5 to WR6 range. Hollins will be 30 years old in 2023.

Hollins’ 2022 Data Profile:

Parris Campbell

Campbell finally experienced a healthy season, playing all 17 games and notching an 88% route participation. However, he was unable to make the most of his opportunity, registering career lows in TPRR and YPRR. The former second-rounder out of Ohio State will only be 26 and offers high-end athleticism, but his inability to garner more significant targets is a limiting factor.

Campbell’s 2022 Data Profile:

Glossary

Routes = routes per team dropback

TPRR = targets per route run

Targets = percentage of team targets

PFF Rec Grade = PFF receiving grade

YPRR = yards per route run

FPTS = PPR fantasy points per game

YAC = yards after the catch (average)

aDOT = average depth of target

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