The Utilization Report. Everything you need for Fantasy Football in Week 16
Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.
- Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
- Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
- Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
- Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
- Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
For this season, Fantasy Life has partnered with PFF to collaborate on the Utilization Report.
Get access to the full Utilization Report, all the data tables, and team-by-team analysis by subscribing to PFF+
Week 15 Takeaways
Waiver Wire
To make the waiver wire section of this column, a player must be rostered less than 50% of the time in typical leagues like Yahoo! or ESPN. If players are trending upwards in utilization or performance and are over that threshold, they will be found under the upgrade or buy-low section.
RB – Zack Moss
Jonathan Taylor’s season is over, landing on IR after suffering a high-ankle sprain on the Colts’ first drive in Week 15. After his departure, Moss decidedly controlled the backfield with 24 rushing attempts.
Moss taking the SDD snaps wasn’t a surprise as the bigger-bodied option, but he also led the way in LDD situations with over 60% of the work. Deon Jackson had been a passing-down option at times this season, which makes that development notable. Moss ceded snaps to Jackson in the two-minute offense (33% vs. 67%), but his utilization mirrored what we have seen from Taylor this season.
Since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, the Colts have shown a willingness to run the ball more than the NFL average in all game scripts.
- Trailing by four-plus points: 40% (+6)
- Within three points: 45% (+4)
- Leading by four-plus points: 50% (+1)
The Colts get three great rushing matchups to finish the season against the Chargers, Giants, and Texans. We only have one data point, but time is short and at RB, volume is king, making Moss worth a big final bet off of the waiver wire.
- FAB: 75%+
WR – Jahan Dotson
Dotson has shown signs of life over the last two games with WR18 and WR9 finishes, thanks to a 20% target share and 30% air yard share. Washington is scheming optimal looks for their 2022 first-round selection, with 38% and 60% of his targets coming off of play-action passes.
| Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR |
| 12 | 63% | 7% | 5% | 22.0 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| 13 | 90% | 19% | 21% | 10.5 | 28% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 16.4 |
| 15 | 89% | 17% | 19% | 21.8 | 32% | 50% | 0% | 60% | 20.5 |
| YTD | 54% | 13% | 9% | 15.7 | 16% | 22% | 8% | 32% | 10.2 |
Dotson has as many endzone targets as Terry McLaurin (22%) for the season, despite missing multiple games. The rookie isn’t dominating looks (13% TPRR), making his long-term profile questionable. However, his recent trends are positive, and the high-leverage nature of his targets provides upside.
The Commanders face the 49ers this weekend, which will be a sub-optimal spot for the rookie. However, he gets the Browns in Week 17.
Dotson moves into upside WR4 territory and is available in over 80% of leagues.
- FAB: 50%+
WR – Russell Gage
Gage demonstrated WR3 traits during his time in Atlanta despite a terrible offense. Injuries have derailed his inaugural season in Tampa Bay, but Week 15 was a reminder that he can play. The veteran WR registered a team-leading 29% target share and finished as the No. 5 WR in Week 15 with Julio Jones out.
He was Tom Brady’s favorite option on third and fourth downs (36%) and in the endzone (100%) in a game where the Buccaneers were forced into comeback-mode against the Bengals. He now sits at a respectable 19% TPRR, given his season-long battle with a hamstring injury.
The Bucs remain a pass-first offense, and Gage attacks the underneath and intermediate areas of the field where Brady has found success. The veteran WR belongs in the high-end WR4 discussion in Week 16 against the Cardinals if Jones misses another game.
- FAB: 25%
QB – Gardner Minshew
Jalen Hurts suffered a sprain to his throwing shoulder in the victory over the Bears in Week 15. While he hasn’t been ruled out for Week 16, early reports lean towards Minshew as the starter.
Minshew averaged 214 yards and 2 TDs in two starts last season for the Eagles, including a game against their Week 16 opponent, Dallas. With QB waiver wire options picked over more than ever due to injuries and busts, Minshew is a solid option for Hurts managers.
The Eagles will likely try to lean into their rushing attack against a Cowboys’ front that is susceptible to the run. However, Minshew could have a big efficiency day, given the Eagles’ elite weapons. The veteran QB has eclipsed 275-plus yards in 32% of his NFL starts with at least 25 dropbacks.
Hurts fantasy managers should proactively add Minshew if they don’t have a backup and/or the waiver wire is thin.
- FAB: Do what you need to do if you don’t have other options.
Upgrades
QB – Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has three top-five fantasy finishes in his last four outings. Over that span, he averages 297 yards and 2.8 TDs per game through the air.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick ranks first in PFF pass grade (90.2) since Week 10 and is second in big-time-throw rate (7.5%) behind only Josh Allen. Lawrence and the Jaguars are peaking at the best time of the season for fantasy managers.
Week 16 provides a challenging matchup against the Jets before Jacksonville finishes out the season against the Texans’ and Titans' porous secondaries.
Lawrence is a mid-range QB1 moving forward.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon has back-to-back No. 1 RB performances, and his role in the passing game is as strong as ever, with 55% and 68% route participation marks.
| Week | Snaps | Rush Att | Routes | Targets | TPRR | SDD Snaps | i5 Att | LDD Snaps | 2MIN Snaps | PPR |
| 1 | 39% | 15% | 41% | 10% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 83% | 60% | 7.9 |
| 2 | 47% | 22% | 36% | 6% | 14% | 43% | 100% | 100% | 25% | 9.6 |
| 3 | 52% | 41% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 25% | 89% | 100% | 2.0 |
| 4 | 23% | 6% | 25% | 3% | 10% | 32% | 33% | 80% | 100% | 1.0 |
| 5 | 53% | 38% | 51% | 8% | 13% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 9.2 |
| 6 | 43% | 14% | 45% | 9% | 15% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 6.0 |
| 7 | 44% | 9% | 48% | 10% | 19% | 75% | 0% | 67% | 100% | 6.8 |
| 9 | 62% | 19% | 64% | 13% | 16% | 67% | 0% | 93% | 93% | 10.4 |
| 10 | 38% | 5% | 46% | 23% | 44% | 71% | 0% | 88% | 0% | 11.8 |
| 11 | 52% | 25% | 49% | 3% | 6% | 20% | 0% | 90% | 100% | 3.4 |
| 12 | 34% | 0% | 44% | 14% | 26% | 57% | 0% | 89% | 77% | 5.6 |
| 13 | 47% | 35% | 44% | 10% | 15% | 60% | 100% | 83% | 0% | 14.0 |
| 14 | 57% | 25% | 55% | 20% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 80% | 31.4 |
| 15 | 62% | 33% | 68% | 20% | 26% | 67% | 0% | 90% | 0% | 32.2 |
| YTD | 47% | 20% | 48% | 11% | 19% | 49% | 28% | 90% | 84% | 10.8 |
The journeyman RB has hit a 20%-plus target share in three games this season and two of them have come in the last two contests. McKinnon registered 16 targets, 14 receptions, 183 yards, and 3 TDs through the air in Weeks 14 and 15.
Isiah Pacheco remains the primary ball carrier, but the veteran RB is locked into the Chiefs’ passing plans. An afterthought only two weeks ago, McKinnon carved out a Tony Pollard-type role in short order. Like Pollard, he might not hit every week – his other two outings with a 50% route participation netted 9.2 and 10.4 fantasy points – but the ceiling is undeniable.
McKinnon is a must-start upside RB2 the rest of the way.
RB – J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins has 120 and 125 rushing yards in his first two games back from IR. However, the Ravens’ backfield remains a three-way committee, with Gus Edwards spelling Dobbins on 27% of rushing attempts and Justice Hill handling most of the passing-down duties.
Fortunately, the Ravens remain a run-first operation, which boosts the touch floor in a committee. Baltimore leans into the run game in trailing (+2), close (+3) and leading (+5) game scripts more than the NFL average and ranks No. 7 in non-overtime rushing attempts.
After toting the ball 15 and 13 times the last two weeks, Baltimore gets the Falcons in Week 16 in a matchup where the game script could provide Dobbins a chance to register season-highs in rushing attempts.
Dobbins is a borderline RB2 moving forward.
WR – Zay Jones
Jones has three top-seven finishes in his last four games, averaging 27% of the team’s targets. His 22% season-long target share trails only Christian Kirk (23%), and the duo has turned into more of a 1A and 1B situation with the eruption of Trevor Lawrence.
| Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR |
| 12 | 93% | 36% | 39% | 8.6 | 52% | 0% | 25% | 14% | 25.5 |
| 13 | 85% | 18% | 19% | 7.3 | 19% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 3.6 |
| 14 | 93% | 28% | 29% | 12.3 | 45% | 50% | 30% | 18% | 21.7 |
| 15 | 98% | 18% | 20% | 13.8 | 28% | 40% | 22% | 0% | 34.9 |
| YTD | 88% | 21% | 22% | 9.5 | 26% | 32% | 25% | 19% | 14.1 |
Jones is an interesting case study because he checked zero breakout boxes before his move to the Raiders last season, where he registered a WR4-worthy PFF receiving grade.
A change of scenery doesn’t always work – see Marquez Valdes-Scantling – but Jones deserves a lot of credit for parlaying his strong finish in 2021 into his role with the Jaguars.
Jones is a high-end WR3 in a red-hot passing attack.
WR – Drake London
London has taken over the Falcons’ passing attack with 50% and 44% target shares, which has led to WR20 and WR26 finishes.
| Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR |
| 11 | 92% | 14% | 17% | 7.7 | 20% | 100% | 20% | 33% | 7.2 |
| 12 | 96% | 12% | 13% | 4.7 | 11% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 4.9 |
| 13 | 88% | 55% | 50% | 15.4 | 49% | 100% | 33% | 42% | 15.5 |
| 15 | 83% | 38% | 44% | 8.9 | 42% | 0% | 43% | 55% | 14.0 |
| YTD | 86% | 27% | 29% | 10.7 | 30% | 42% | 25% | 40% | 9.9 |
Since Kyle Pitts’ injury in Week 11, London has a 30% TPRR and a 2.00 YPRR.
The top WR from the 2022 NFL draft has a 27% TPRR on the season – ranking first among rookies with at least 250 routes – but no one knows, because the Falcons are the fourth-most run-heavy team.
Atlanta’s run-at-all-costs offense and shaky QB play are barriers to a high-end eruption for London down the stretch. However, we have seen this style of offense support solid WR play when there is only one talented mouth to feed, and that is precisely the scenario in this instance.
London is a low-end WR3 with upside in season-long and a buy-low in dynasty formats.
TE – George Kittle
Historically, Kittle has seen an uptick in targets in games without Deebo Samuel, and that held true in Week 15. Kittle delivered the No. 1 TE performance with four receptions for 93 yards and two TDs on five targets.
The veteran TE still has weekly bust potential in a run-first offense where Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk will get looks, but this is a reminder that his upside is superior to almost every other TE.
Kittle is a high-end boom-bust TE1 as long as Samuel is out.
TE – Darren Waller
Waller returned from IR to post a top-eight TE finish. However, he was hardly targeted (9%), and his routes were limited (66%).
The veteran tight end has yet to prove he can earn the love and affection of Derek Carr with Davante Adams on the field. His 16% TPRR is well below his marks of 27% and 23% over the last two seasons.
Waller’s reputation earns him a low-end TE1 grade, but he isn’t a must-start until he shows more.
Downgrades
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper has finishes of WR53, WR61, and WR43 since Deshaun Watson took over at QB. Over the last two games, he only has 11 total targets.
| Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR |
| 12 | 96% | 26% | 31% | 13.2 | 38% | 0% | 47% | 0% | 16.4 |
| 13 | 100% | 38% | 43% | 11.0 | 61% | 100% | 57% | 33% | 8.0 |
| 14 | 90% | 14% | 16% | 12.7 | 21% | 25% | 25% | 33% | 6.2 |
| 15 | 88% | 17% | 20% | 8.0 | 35% | 50% | 17% | 20% | 9.8 |
| YTD | 91% | 23% | 26% | 13.0 | 37% | 38% | 33% | 15% | 14.4 |
Watson was atrocious in the first game, with a 57% adjusted completion percentage, but he has improved over the last two games with marks of 81% and 76%. Unfortunately, the yards per attempt haven’t followed (6.0, 6.6 and 5.8).
Cooper remains the No. 1 option in Cleveland, but it is uncertain if Watson can shake off the rust in time to make him the high-end player we saw with Jacoby Brissett under center.
The veteran WR drops to low-end WR2 status.
Get access to the full Utilization Report, all the data tables, and team-by-team analysis by subscribing to PFF+
Data notes and acronyms:
- 1st/2nd = First and second downs
- LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
- SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
- i5 = inside the five-yard line
- 2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)
- Close = score within three points
- Lead = leading by four points or more
- Trail = trailing by four points or more
- Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
- Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
- ADOT = average depth of target
- Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
- TTT = average time to throw
- PA = play action
- PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
- Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
- YPRR = yards per route run
- TPRR = targets per route run
- EZ = end zone
- TOP = Time of possession
- Pass vs. Run Splits = based on the percentage of time a team throws or passes
- FAB = Free agent budget (based on home leagues; adjust percentages in more competitive formats)
