Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. The Bills are letting Josh Allen run with the season on the line.

Allen finished the season with 13% of the Bills designed rushing attempts — well below his three-year average of 18%. However, over the last two games, we have seen vintage Allen with 30% of the rushing attempts plus a 9% scramble rate.

Josh Allen

Altogether, Allen has compiled 27 rushing attempts over the last two games, fueling 111 yards on the ground. The fifth-year QB didn’t manage a rushing TD in Week 18, but he has handled eight of the Bills' 13 totes inside the five-yard line over the last four games, punching in five scores. 

Maybe no one can 100% replicate the success of the tush push, but Buffalo has the closest thing going with Allen. The 6-foot-5 237-pound QB is a good bet to score a rushing TD each week with 15 on the season.

It was also nice to see the Bills passing attack showing signs of life, tying their season-high in yardage with 359 yards. When Allen is at his best, he is a threat to throw for 300-plus yards with multiple TDs and add 50 yards and a score on the ground. 

Outlook: Allen is a high-end QB1 and could be peaking just in time for the NFL Playoffs.

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2. Devin Singletary is dominating the Texans’ rushing workload.

Singletary delivered a respectable 13.5 fantasy points in Week 18, but his underlying utilization was even more substantial. The fifth-year veteran posted season highs in snaps (86%) and rushing attempt share (100%). Since Week 14, Singletary has been the undisputed No. 1 in Houston, garnering 74% of the attempts on a 65% snap share.

Devin Singletary

Dare Ogunbowale has thwarted utilization in the passing game, but Singletary’s 61% route participation and 100% snap rate in the two-minute offense in Week 18 was a positive. Despite the passing game constraints, Singletary’s comp group averaged 14.7 points with an RB13 finish based on the last 12 seasons of data.

Outlook: Singletary UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside in friendly game scripts.

3. Amon-Ra St. Brown enters the playoffs on a heater.

Since registering a season-low 5.1 fantasy points in Week 14, the Sun God has been on fire, averaging 25.5. Over that stretch, ARSB has four top-eight finishes on the back of a 30% target share and 36% air yards share.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Lions will face the Rams on Super Wildcard Weekend without the help of Sam LaPorta, who is expected to miss time due to a knee injury — opening the door for an even more prominent role for St. Brown.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Jan 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) catches a pass and shakes a tackle attempt by Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans (21) during first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

While Jahmyr Gibbs has been a potent weapon out of the backfield (21% TPRR), the Lions have struggled to find another target-earner at WR or TE.

Outlook: St. Brown UPGRADES to high-end WR1 status.

4. Brandin Cooks has back-to-back top-18 finishes.

Cooks has delivered 17 fantasy points in each of the last two games. While CeeDee Lamb is the alpha in Dallas, Cooks could finally be locking down the No. 2 role. The veteran eclipsed the 20% target share threshold in consecutive performances and has six end zone targets since Week 17.

Brandin Cooks

Historically, Cooks has been an 18% to 20% TPRR player but is well below that at 16% this year. His career-high is 25% (2021), closer to his average over the last two games, so we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that the 30-year-old WR could settle in around a 20% target share in the playoffs.

Outlook: Cook UPGRADES to a mid-range WR3 profile and offers WR2 upside.

5. The Packers' backup WRs have been impressive.

Since Christian Watson left the lineup in Week 13 due to another hamstring injury, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton have stepped up with 22% and 30% TPRRs, averaging 12.4 and 11.8 fantasy points.

Packers WRs

The numbers are even more impressive when we isolate the games where each WR saw at least a 70% route participation.

Romeo Doubs picked up a chest injury in Week 18, leaving his status in doubt, along with Watson, for a Super Wildcard matchup against the Cowboys. If Doubs and Watson can’t go, Wicks and Melton are WR3 plays. If one of Doubs or Watson are out, Wicks and Melton are WR4 options.

Outlook: Wicks and Melton are WR3 options with WR2 upside when they have a path to playing time.

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

  • Jordan Love: Love registered a season-high completion rate (84%) and YPA (9.9) in the Packers’ Week 18 victory over the Bears. Over the season's final eight games, Love has averaged 21.9 points with a 70% completion rate and 7.7 YPA — massive improvements from his 59% and 6.7 marks over the first nine contests. Love is locked into the mid-range QB1 conversation heading into Super Wildcard Weekend.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Aaron Jones: With AJ Dillon out of action, Jones bogarted 85% of the rushing attempts on an 82% snap share. The veteran RB also took over a more prominent role in the passing game, playing 50% of the LDD snaps and 43% of the two-minute offense. Over the last three games, including two with Dillon available, Jones averages 21 attempts per contest. Jones UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory and offers mid-range RB1 upside if he retains the passing down work.
     
  • Elijah Mitchell: With Christian McCaffrey out, Mitchell led the 49ers backfield, handling 52% of the rushing attempts and posting a 42% route participation on a 53% snap share. Mitchell finished the day with 14 attempts for 52 yards and a TD on his way to 14.7 fantasy points. Mitchell profiles an RB4 that morphs into a mid-range RB2 with upside if CMC misses time in the postseason.
     
  • James Cook: Cook exploded for 24 points per game with a 31% TPRR in his first four outings with Joe Brady as the playcaller. However, he has slumped to a 6.7-point average with a 13% TPRR over the last three contests. Still, the second-year back averages 16.7 attempts and 3.7 targets per game with Brady, making it challenging to get overly down on his situation. Cook has a carry inside the five-yard line in consecutive games, but Allen is the real goal-line threat — similar to the split we see with D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Based on the last 12 years of data, Cooks’ comps have averaged 14.8 points per game with an RB14 finish. Cooks is a boom-bust RB2.
     
  • Jaylen Warren: Warren has taken over the passing-down work with a 69% route participation over the last four contests. He has handled 91% of the LDD snaps and 99% of the two-minute offense. However, the expansion has come with a tradeoff in the rushing department, where he has only accounted for 30% of the carries. Warren remains a low-end RB2 with upside.
     
  • Jeff Wilson: Wilson handled 50% of the rushing attempts against the Bills with Raheem Mostert out of action. The 28-year-old back also split time with De’Von Achane in the passing attack, garnering a 50% route participation. Wilson is a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside if Mostert misses more time.
     
  • Leonard Fournette: Fournette took over the RB2 role behind Cook in Week 18 against Miami. The veteran back had a 21% snap share, accounting for 22% of the rushing attempts. Fournette UPGRADES to RB5 stash territory, making him an RB3 option in playoff contests.
     
  • Najee Harris: Harris has turned over the keys for passing downs to Warren but has taken over the bulk of the rushing workload. Over the last four games, the former Round 1 NFL Draft selection has handled 61% of the attempts, including a season-high 68% in Week 18. Over the last two games, Harris has 27 and 26 attempts, leading to 24.2 and 24.3 fantasy points. Harris UPGRADES to volume-dependent RB2 status and offers RB1 upside in close game scripts.
     
  • Rico Dowdle: Dowdle missed Week 17 with an injury but returned to action and reclaimed the No. 2 role in Dallas against the Commanders in Week 18. The fourth-year back handled 32% of the rushing attempts and led their two-minute offense, playing 67% of the snaps. Dowdle is an RB4 with upside should Pollard suffer an injury.
     
  • Ronnie Rivers: Rivers led the Rams backfield with 41% of the rushing attempts and 42% route participation, with Kyren Williams resting. Royce Freeman stole the LDD snaps and the work inside the five-yard line. If Kyren Williams were to miss time, Williams looks like the best back to handcuff, but it would likely be a committee.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • Cedrick Wilson: Wilson has earned a 94% route participation over the last two games without Jaylen Waddle. Unfortunately, he only has six targets (10%) to show for his expanded role. Wilson is a WR6 punt play.
     
  • Gabe Davis: Davis suffered a PCL injury that knocked him out of action in Week 18. The fourth-year WR avoided a significant injury, but if he misses time, expect an uptick in routes for Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield, who reached season-high marks with 84% and 69% against the Dolphins with Davis hurt. If Davis is out, Shakir UPGRADES to WR4 territory, and Sherfield moves into the WR5 range.
     
  • Jameson Williams: The former Round 1 NFL Draft selection has been a disappointment in Year 2 with a 17% TPRR. However, Williams will get his most significant opportunity yet, with LaPorta expected to miss time due to a knee injury. While Williams hasn’t been impressive, no other Lions WR has been able to claim the WR2 position, leaving the door open. Williams remains a boom-bust WR4 but, with less target competition, could step into the WR3 conversation.
     
  • John Metchie: The former Alabama WR registered a season-high 77% route participation with Noah Brown and Robert Woods out in Week 18. Unfortunately, Metchie couldn’t get much going, with only an 8% target share. Metchie’s 17% TPRR on the season is WR6 material, making it difficult to get too excited about his prospects even with injuries to Brown and Woods.
     
  • Nico Collins: The third-year WR erupted for 35 fantasy points in Week 18. Collins notched a 36% target share and accounted for 46% of the Texans’ air yards. Since returning from a calf injury in Week 15, Collins has averaged 21 fantasy points per game with a 31% TPRR. Collins is a low-end WR1 with high-end WR1 spike potential, as we saw against the Colts.
     
  • Tyreek Hill: Hill demanded a 50% target share with Jaylen Waddle out of action due to a high-ankle sprain. There isn’t much target competition in Miami, so look for vacated targets to continue to flow toward the superstar WR. Hill remains a high-end WR1.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid continues to see less than optimal route participation with a 71% mark since the return of Dawson Knox in Week 14. However, he has 25% and 22% target shares over the last two games, leading to 13 and 15 fantasy points. The rookie TE doesn’t offer the same consistent floor we saw while Knox was out, but he still has the skillset to push for the No. 2 role in this passing attack any given week. Kincaid UPGRADES to low-end TE1 territory.
     
  • Dalton Schultz: Schultz has seen a downturn in route participation over the last three games with marks of 70%, 71% and 68%, with Brevin Jordan stealing opportunities. Still, Schultz made the most of his playing time with a 28% target share — second behind Collins in Week 18. Schultz continues to profile as a low-end TE1.
     
  • Tucker Kraft: Fellow rookie Luke Musgrave returned from IR in Week 18, but Kraft retained the lead role with an 82% route participation. It is hard to say if this will last. The team might have been easing Musgrave back into the fold. With the uncertainty around playing time, Kraft DOWNGRADES to high-end TE2 status.
Utilization Report