The Utilization Report. Everything you need for the Conference Championships.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. Travis Kelce has flipped the switch.

From Week 13 to Week 17, Kelce averaged only 9.6 fantasy points per game, with his target share dipping to 18%. But the superstar TE might have been saving his best for last. He has looked like prime Kelce in two playoff games, leading the team with a 30% target share and 19.5 points per game.

The 34-year-old’s 14.7 points per game in the regular season is his lowest mark since 2016, so there is a chance father time is finally catching up to him. However, he delivered a 22% target share and a 1.96 YPRR when excluding missed games. That target share aligns with his three-year average, and his YPRR is still in high-end TE1 territory despite the slight decline from 2.18.

Outlook: Kelce remains a high-end TE1 capable of generating fantasy outputs similar to a high-end WR2.

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2. Lamar Jackson has improved as a passer.

The sixth-year QB continues to be a priority on the ground, ranking second in designed rushing attempts (18%) and first in scramble rate (11%) out of all signal callers with at least 450 snaps.

However, perhaps the bigger story is his improvement as a passer. Jackson’s 8.0 YPA, 67% completion rate and 85.5 PFF pass grade are all career-high marks. His 225 passing yards per game is his second-best finish, behind his 240 in 2021.

The Ravens don’t have to throw the ball often thanks to their offensive efficiency — ranking third in drives ending with a score (44%) — and the No. 1 yards per play (4.6) defense. However, Jackson has shown a high-end ceiling over the last five games, averaging 242 yards and 2.6 TDs through the air. Over that span, he has been a one-person wrecking crew, delivering 29.2 fantasy points per contest.

Outlook: Jackson is the top rushing QB in the NFL and now the passing game is starting to click. He UPGRADES to high-end QB1 status.

3. Jahmyr Gibbs continues delivering RB1 performances despite the timeshare.

We have a significant sample over the last 11 games, where Gibbs and David Montgomery have both been healthy. Over that span, the rookie first-rounder has averaged 16.8 fantasy points per contest — despite accounting for only 41% of the team’s attempts.

Gibbs has averaged 11.2 attempts and 4.1 targets over that span, which has historically been commensurate with a mid-range RB2.

On the surface, Gibbs appears to be due for regression, but the Lions' commitment to the run and their high-scoring offense (which Gibbs has helped to propel) is working in his favor.

Jan 21, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) runs with the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) during the second half in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit’s offense has scored the second-most TDs per drive (31%) and runs the football 70% of the time inside the five-yard line. Gibbs has parlayed that combination into five rushing TDs from in close since Week 10, to go along with another three from 10-plus yards out.

Outlook: Gibbs profiles as a mid-range RB1 and has the tools to post an RB1 overall season in the coming years.

4. Deebo Samuel’s status is in jeopardy for the NFC championship game.

After suffering a shoulder injury against the Packers, Samuel’s chances of playing next weekend were deemed 50-50 by the 49ers. While the 49ers are loaded, they have struggled without Samuel, going 0-3 from Week 6 to Week 8 against the Browns, Vikings and Bengals. Brock Purdy threw three TDs versus five interceptions over that stretch.

Still, it is hard to get too down on Purdy and the 49ers. Over the entire season, Purdy’s splits haven’t been that different with and without Samuel on the field.

The most significant difference is the interception rate, but those are high-variance plays and we are dealing with a small sample. The loss of Samuel won’t be a non-factor, but we should be careful tying too much value to four games when we can look at a larger sample of plays for the season. Expect the 49ers to keep the possibility of Samuel playing up in the air as long as possible so that the Lions must game plan for his unique skill set.

Samuel’s absence will be felt most against zone coverage, where he leads the team with a 25% TPRR. However, the Lions are one of the most man-heavy units over the last six games, which plays into the hands of Brandon Aiyuk and his team-leading 27% TPRR versus man.

On snaps without Samuel on the field this season, Aiyuk has led the way in target share (25%), followed by George Kittle (22%) and then Christian McCaffrey (18%). Jauan Jennings also benefits when Samuel is out with a 12% target share. In four games where Samuel hasn’t reached a 20% route participation, Jennings has notched marks of 58%, 79%, 85% and 72%, delivering 6.5 points per contest. 

Outlook: If Samuel can’t play against the Lions, Aiyuk moves into the WR1 conversation, and Kittle elevates to high-end TE1 status. Jauan Jennings enters the WR5 conversation, and Ray-Ray McCould becomes a WR6 punt play.

5. Sam LaPorta appears to be over his knee injury from Week 18.

LaPorta gutted out an 80% route participation on Super Wild Card Weekend but only garnered a 12% target share. However, the rookie rebounded against the Bucs in the Divisional Round with a 27% target share on his way to 15.5 fantasy points.

Since 2011, no other rookie TE has averaged more than LaPorta’s 13.7 points per contest, which is also good enough for No. 4 behind Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram this season.

LaPorta ranks third at the position in target share (21%), fourth in air yards (21%), second in end zone target share (32%) and first in third- or fourth-down target share (29%). Jared Goff trusts the Lions’ Round 2 NFL draft pick in every situation, which is another excellent sign of things to come.

Outlook: LaPorta is a high-end TE1.

6. The Ravens' backfield remains fluid, but Justice Hill is rising.

Since the loss of Keaton Mitchell in Week 15, Gus Edwards has commanded most of the work inside the five-yard line (69%), with Justice Hill handling the long-down-and-distance (87%) and two-minute offense (93%). However, a clear lead rushing option hasn’t emerged, with each back leading the team in attempts twice.

Edwards has averaged 11.3 attempts versus 6.5 for Hill since Week 16. I will still project Edwards as the lead early-down option for Championship Weekend, but the team might be mixing the backs based on the matchup.

In the Divisional Round, Dalvin Cook muddied the waters further, handling eight (21%) rushing attempts. Cook didn’t enter the game until the fourth quarter, so this might not impact things much in close contests, but it could hurt if the Ravens build a lead.

It is hard to get excited about any of these options, but it is a slight upgrade for Hill. Based on this small sample, his historical comps averaged 12.9 points per game in PPR formats — much better than Edwards at 8.1.

Outlook: Edwards DOWNGRADES to TD-dependent RB4 territory and Hill UPGRADES to high-end RB3 status in PPR formats.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

• Christian McCaffrey: The 49ers handed CMC a 98% snap share in a win-or-go-home situation. The veteran accounted for 76% of the rushing attempts and posted a sizzling 33% target share with an 80% route participation. Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason didn’t touch the ball. CMC is always a high-end RB1, but his role offers even more potential in the playoffs.
   
• Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco once again dominated the Chiefs backfield in the Divisional Round, notching 76% of the snaps. He led the team with 68% of the rushing attempts and a 60% route participation, leading to 18.1 fantasy points. Pacheco remains firmly entrenched in mid-range RB1 territory heading into the conference title game.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Sun God kept on keeping on against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round with 22 fantasy points on a 32% target share. His target share now sits at 29% — the fifth-best mark in the NFL — averaging 9.9 looks per game. While consistency is often a myth in fantasy football, ARSB is one of the exceptions, with only three finishes outside the top 24 this year. He has failed to reach 15 points only twice. St. Brown continues to profile as a mid-range WR1.
   
• Jameson Williams: Despite the increased routes with Kalif Raymond out again, Williams didn’t come through in the fantasy box score with only 5.5 points. The former first-round pick is now down to a 16% TPRR, which doesn’t bode well for his long-term prospects — especially with St. Brown and Sam LaPorta bogarting the love and affection of Jared Goff. However, Williams remains a boom-bust WR4 option if Raymond is out next weekend.
   
• Josh Reynolds: After garnering 23% and 28% target shares, Reynolds fell back to earth with a 7% mark against Tampa Bay. The seventh-year veteran has a 13% TPRR for the season, which always made him a boom-bust candidate, even with the improved route participation. Reynolds is a boom-bust WR4 profile if Kalif Raymond misses another game.
   
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS popped for his highest target share (19%) and second-highest air yards share (43%) of the season. Unfortunately, it only led to 8.2 fantasy points. Even more unfortunate, that was his second-best total of the year — not exactly what folks had in mind when thinking of the words spike week. While the veteran deep threat could get hot in the playoffs, his route participation (56%) remained entangled in a committee, making it unlikely. Valdes-Scantling still profiles as a WR6. 
   
• Mecole Hardman: Hardman continues to work into the rotation, registering a 40% route participation and 5% target share against the Bills. Hardman has been a highlight reel of miscommunications with Patrick Mahomes over the years, with the QB often visibly flustered by the former Georgia Bulldog. However, he took frustrations to a new level in the Divisional Round, fumbling twice on his only two touches, including one that went through the endzone to end a scoring drive and put Buffalo back on the field. Unfortunately, the Chiefs don’t have much speed on offense, which could keep Hardman in play if Kadarius Toney continues to miss time. Hardman is a boom-bust WR5.
   
• Odell Beckham Jr.: The 31-year-old WR is in a tie with Mark Andrews for the team lead in TPRR at 21% this year. However, even with the season on the line in a playoff contest, the route participation didn’t improve, and it wasn’t just due to him resting in the fourth quarter. Over the first three quarters, Beckham posted a 30% route participation — his worst outing of the year. With Andrews likely to return next weekend, things will only get more complicated for OBJ, creating a DOWNGRADE scenario — he is a WR5 at best.
   
• Rashod Bateman: Deciphering the Ravens’ utilization patterns isn’t something I have great confidence in, but Bateman finished No. 2 in route participation (72%) behind Zay Flowers. Nelson Agholor was close behind at 62%, but Bateman also received more rest in a meaningless Week 18 contest. Bateman remains a WR5 option.
   
• Zay Flowers: Flowers only managed eight fantasy points, but he led the team in route participation (86%) and target share (24%) against the Texans. It was a positive step in his recovery from a calf injury that limited him in Week 17 and caused him to sit in Week 18. Flowers could face more target competition next weekend with Mark Andrews nearing a return — Flowers profiles as a mid-range WR3 with WR2 upside.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

• Isaiah Likely: Likely stayed hot in the Divisional Round, thanks to a fantastic leaping end zone catch for a TD. Likely’s 13% TPRR is well below average compared to historical TE1s, but he has made the most of his opportunities. The second-year TE ranks second behind George Kittle in yards per reception (14.4) and first in TDs per target (15.4%). There is no doubt about Likely’s playmaking ability, but he is due for regression — especially if Andrews returns against the Chiefs. Likely is a boom-bust TE1 profile that drops to the TE2 conversation if Andrews plays.