Nothing gets the offseason juices flowing like a good landing spot discussion.
Let’s add Bijan Robinson to the Cowboys and see what happens? Get Kareem Hunt a one-way ticket to Miami? Sign up Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Justin Fields’s new No. 1 WR?
The possibilities are endless—and it’s a good thing they are because how else are we supposed to get through the dog days of April?
Of course, not every landing spot is created equal. Touch competition, scoring environment, and scheme are just three of the many factors that help determine a player’s newfound fantasy value; not everyone is good enough to simply ball the hell out regardless of who they play for.
What follows is a breakdown of the most fantasy-friendly landing spots available for free agents, trade targets, and draft picks alike. The four main factors considered:
- Scoring environment: Mix of last season’s finish in points per game with slight tweaks to account for major roster turnover (especially at QB).
- Available carries/targets: How much opportunity is on the table based on vacated carries and targets? Special thanks to 4for4’s John Daigle for the updated info.
- Depth chart competition: Available carries and targets aren’t necessarily guaranteed to go to the new guy if the incumbent options are pretty, pretty, pretty good.
- Coaching tendencies: Certain NFL offenses are far more willing to feature committee backfields, while others lean on a true workhorse. Similar decisions are made regarding how often an offense uses two-TE sets, three-WR formations, etc.
Note that landing spots are only being considered for 2023.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals let Samaje Perine walk in free agency and don’t appear to be on the best terms with Joe Mixon at the moment. Specifically, Bengals EVP Katie Blackburn said, “Right now, he’s on the team.”
I don’t want to stir up too much drama, but the way she said it was not great!
Off-the-field concerns aside, the Bengals can save north of $10 million against the salary cap by cutting Mixon after June 1. It is curious that Mixon hasn’t been designated as a post-June 1 release already; teams don’t have to wait until after that date—just look at the Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott. This could ultimately be a post-draft decision that also comes down to whether or not Mixon is willing to restructure his contract.
This is why the Bengals earn the No. 1 spot: Where there is smoke, there is fire, and at a minimum it’s possible—if not likely—that Mixon isn’t wearing black and orange next season.
This would open up a pretty, pretty, pretty great workhorse role for a lucky someone. The following leaderboard reflects the leaders in expected PPR points per game in 2022; these RBs had the most fantasy-friendly workloads independent of what they actually did with those touches:
- Austin Ekeler (20.4 expected PPR points per game)
- Joe Mixon (19)
- Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
- Saquon Barkley (17.9)
- Josh Jacobs (17.4)
Subtracting Mixon from the equation leaves a true every-down role available inside the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring offense. The team’s trio of talented WRs will certainly be prioritized in the passing game; that said, Mixon and Perine did combine for 126 targets last season.
Whoever winds up getting the job will immediately be in the position’s upside RB2 conversation at worst. At best, we’re talking about a potential top-five fantasy asset.
Dream match: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler. Necessary? Probably not, but that’s why this section is named the way it is. Ekeler might not get the same volume of targets in Cincy, but his scoring upside and lethal ability in the underneath areas of the field would still be plenty appreciated.
This would undoubtedly shift the Bengals' Super Bowl Odds, currently sitting at +900 on BetMGM. You can get ahead of the curve if you think they acquire a top-end RB and bet today on BetMGM with up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Claim your First Bet Offer below.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders took his talents to Carolina, leaving the Eagles with ex-Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny alongside incumbent backups Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell, and Trey Sermon.
Sep 25, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny (20) rushes against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
It’s easy to see the allure with Penny. Out of all RBs with at least 300 attempts since 2018, Penny ranks No. 3 in average yards after contact (3.8) behind only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. Over that same span, he registered a 10-plus-yard run on a sparkling 15% of attempts, well above the NFL average of 10.5%.
And yet, Penny’s contract is a one-year, $3.5M deal with just $600,000 guaranteed. That’s life for an RB who has played in just 42 of a possible 82 regular season games since entering the league.
Maybe Penny runs away with the starting job and stays fully healthy all year for the first time…ever.
Or maybe the Eagles aren’t done adding to their RB room. Fantasy Life’s fearless leader Matthew Berry noted the following about this backfield in his article on the 23 most interesting things he learned at the combine:
“They really like Gainwell in his third down passing role but that's about it. One thing that was interesting was both sources told me the ‘running back by committee’ approach that Philly used the last couple of seasons was more about a lack of confidence in Sanders handling a massive workload, both from a health point of view and concerns on fumbling. If Philly were to land a ‘star running back’ from the draft (like if they somehow wound up with Bijan Robinson) they would ride that guy in a big way. In other words, a RBBC is not Sirianni's preferred way to deploy running backs but rather what he felt he had to do given who they had on the roster.”
A workhorse role inside the league’s reigning second-ranked scoring offense, behind PFF’s top-ranked offensive line from 2022—is that something you might be interested in?
Dream match: Texas RB Bijan Robinson. The Twitter discourse would be incredible: Simultaneous fantasy joy mixed with analytical nerds losing their minds over an RB being selected within the top 10 picks. Regardless: Robinson would instantly warrant top-three consideration in fantasy land—perhaps there would even be discussions around the No. 1 spot after a few drinks.
Click here for Robinson’s dynasty rookie profile.
3. Miami Dolphins
There was a lot of potential inside this backfield when free agency started: Each of Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Myles Gaskin entered the open market with free rein to sign with whoever they wanted.
Fast forward to present day…and all three RBs returned to Miami. This leaves the offense with few available opportunities, although it’s tough to be overly confident about either Wilson or Mostert nailing down the starting job considering how often they rotated down the stretch of 2022.
Whoever winds up working as McDaniel’s lead back will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside simply by existing in the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring offense, although no team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.
Ultimately, this Dolphins offense figures to continue to flow through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle before anyone else.
Wilson deserves the slight edge in the ole fantasy rankings thanks to his youth, superior contract, and enhanced playing time (even though Mostert was banged up); that said, it'll be tough to rank either as a top-30 RB without more information surrounding head coach Mike McDaniel's plans for the position.
Ideal scenario? The team adds a clear-cut No. 1 RB who erases the present unpredictability of this backfield.
Dream match: Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Even more speed inside the Dolphins’ already-electric offense. Gibbs could handle an Ekeler-esque role as the clear lead back (especially on passing downs) while getting spelled by Wilson and/or Mostert when the offense feels like running between the tackles.
Click here for Gibbs’s dynasty rookie profile.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White might have been better than Leonard Fournette in 2022, but that’s not saying much. Both were objectively bad RBs when it came to running the football:
- PFF rushing grade: White (65.1, 39th), Fournette (68.7, 36th)
- Yards per carry: White (3.7, 39th), Fournette (3.5, 41st)
- Yards after contact per carry: White (2.3, 41st), Fournette (2.3, 42nd)
- Elusive Rating: White (31.3, 40th), Fournette (31.7, 39th)
Tom Brady’s high checkdown rate made life in fantasy land just fine for whichever RB was getting featured in a particular week last season (Lenny finished as the PPR RB12!), but that’s not necessarily something fantasy managers can hang their hat on with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center in 2023.
Ultimately, White and recently-signed veteran RB Chase Edmonds represent one of the league’s weaker RB rooms on paper. Either could probably put up solid fantasy numbers with a true workhorse role—this honestly applies to a shit ton of professional RBs—but that doesn’t mean the team couldn’t stand to upgrade the RB room.
This offense will look different in the post-TB12 era; just realize the Buccaneers rank sixth in expected backfield PPR points per game since 2020. Even a dip in scoring upside might not be enough to keep whoever winds up leading this backfield outside of fantasy’s top 12 backs should a featured role emerge.
Dream match: UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet. Physical three-down RB inside an offense without an RB who has proven capable of being able to win between the tackles. Standing 6’0” and weighing 214 pounds, Charbonnet has the requisite size to stay on the field in an NFL draft class full of Mickey-Mouse-sized backs.
5. Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers’s 2022 campaign consisted of porous usage, trade rumors…and a surprising breakout during the final six weeks of the season.
- Week 13: 17-60-2 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving, 72% snaps
- Week 14: 12-42-1 rushing, 1-1-0 receiving, 42%
- Week 15: 12-65-0 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving, 76%
- Week 16: 23-118-3 rushing, 2-29-0 receiving, 75%
- Week 17: 19-123-0 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving, 78%
- Week 18: 21-104-0 rushing, 3-24-0 receiving, 100%
Akers’s projected volume will be at a workhorse level should the Rams continue to refrain from adding any serious backfield competition. Still, it’s tough to be overly optimistic about head coach Sean McVay’s RB usage considering just how finicky he’s been in the post-Todd Gurley era.
The important thing is that McVay has been far more willing to give his lead RB—whoever that may be—a true every-down role relative to other play-callers. Maybe that back will be Akers, maybe not.
Either way: It’d be a lot cooler to actually know who the team’s clear-cut lead back is vs. being forced to (again) play a guessing game throughout the summer months.
Do you think it will be Akers? You can start drafting him at his ADP of 82.1 on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 for doing so. Get your deposit match below and start drafting today.
Oct 31, 2022; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt (27) reacts after running for a first down in the third quarter during an NFL Week 8 game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, Oct. 31, 2022, at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland. Mandatory Credit: Albert Cesare-USA TODAY Sports
Dream match: Free agent RB Kareem Hunt. Head coach Sean McVay is no stranger to bringing in big-name veterans. Hunt’s per-touch metrics cratered in 2022, but at his best he’s an explosive three-down talent capable of winning across all three downs.
Other notes:
The Vikings are similar to the Bengals in that they could be waiting until after the draft to make a decision on Dalvin Cook’s future, although in this scenario the next man up appears to rather clearly be long-time backup RB Alexander Mattison.
Whether or not the Panthers go out of their way to add another pass-catching RB to the equation will be a good sign regarding just how big of a role they plan on giving Miles Sanders.
We love to imagine the Bills finally saying f*ck it and adding a true game-changer to their RB room; just realize Josh Allen’s play style hasn’t lent itself too kindly to RB fantasy production.
The Broncos signed Samaje Perine to an underrated two-year, $7.5 million deal; additional reinforcements would be a good indicator that Javonte Williams’s recovery could be rough.
Cleveland has been hesitant to give Nick Chubb a true every-down role over the years. Maybe Jerome Ford steps up as the clear No. 2 RB with Hunt a free agent and D’Ernest Johnson now residing in Jacksonville.
The Chiefs have yet to re-sign Jerick McKinnon, leaving them with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the projected leaders in the clubhouse at the moment.
Tony Pollard could be looking at a legit workhorse role should the Cowboys continue to refrain from seriously replacing Ezekiel Elliott.
A similar sentiment is true in Arizona for James Conner, although it’s unclear if the new coaching staff will use him in the same sort of bell-cow manner as Kliff Kingsbury and company did.
The Patriots have been rumored to be eyeing one of the draft’s best RBs; just realize Rhamondre Stevenson figures to retain plenty of involvement regardless.
The Bears, Jaguars, Commanders, Chargers, and Falcons are more squads who could feasibly look to add more reinforcements to the position, even if they’re probably fine with their current options.
