Nothing gets the offseason juices flowing like a good landing spot discussion.
Let’s add Bijan Robinson to the Cowboys and see what happens. Get Kareem Hunt a one-way ticket to Miami. Sign up Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Justin Fields’ new No. 1 WR.
The possibilities are endless – and it’s a good thing they are because how else are we supposed to get through the dog days of April?
Of course, not every landing spot is created equal. Touch competition, scoring environment and scheme are just three of the many factors that help determine a player’s newfound fantasy value; not everyone is good enough to simply ball the hell out, regardless of their team.
What follows is a breakdown of the most fantasy-friendly TE landing spots available for free agents, trade targets and draft picks alike. The four main factors considered:
- Scoring environment: Mix of last season’s finish in points per game with slight tweaks to account for major roster turnover (especially at QB).
- Available carries/targets: How much opportunity is on the table based on vacated carries and targets? Special thanks to 4for4’s John Daigle for the updated info.
- Depth chart competition: Available carries and targets aren’t necessarily guaranteed to go to the new guy if the incumbent options are pretty, pretty, pretty good.
- Coaching tendencies: Certain NFL offenses are far more willing to feature committee backfields, while others lean on a true workhorse. Similar decisions are made regarding how often an offense uses two-TE sets, three-WR formations, etc.
Note that landing spots are only being considered for 2023.
1. Dallas Cowboys
Only five teams have 75 or more available targets directly from the TE position:
- Raiders (97 targets)
- Cowboys (89)
- Bengals (88)
- Texans (87)
- Titans (76)
Of course, the Cowboys are so high on this list due to the reality that Dalton Schultz took his talents to Houston. While it’s not a guarantee that head coach Mike McCarthy will keep the position as involved as ex-OC Kellen Moore did, even 90% of Schultz’s expected PPR points over the years would still be pretty good for the fantasy business:
- 2020: 9.6 expected PPR points per game (TE14)
- 2021: 10.8 (TE9)
- 2022: 11 (TE5)
The Cowboys don’t need to spend high-end draft capital here with decent enough young options in Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot to keep the boat afloat. Especially in an offense with plenty of other directions to go with the football, like CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks and Tony Pollard.
Still, it’d be a lot cooler if Dak Prescott had ANOTHER weapon because why not? Did you see the sort of skill-position talent that non-Patrick Mahomes-led offenses worked with during last season’s NFC and AFC Championships? Make it happen, Jerry.
Dream match: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer. The most NFL-ready TE in the class would provide some sneaky-YAC goodness alongside a three-down skill set to a perennial top-five scoring offense that declined to replace Schultz through free agency.
2. Detroit Lions
The Lions' current TE room is as follows:
- Brock Wright: Former undrafted free agent who managed just one game with more than 25 receiving yards after the Hockenson trade.
- Shane Zylstra: Former undrafted free agent who popped off for a 5-26-3 receiving line in Week 16 last season. His production in 16 other career games: 9-68-1.
- James Mitchell: Perhaps the most-intriguing receiving prospect of the group, Mitchell fell to the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft in large part because of a torn ACL just two games into his senior season. Mitchell’s 11-113-1 receiving line in 14 games as a rookie wasn’t dominant by any stretch of the imagination, just realize his collegiate reviews were largely sterling from a route-running and burst perspective.
- Derrick Deese Jr.: Former undrafted free agent hasn’t played an NFL snap, although his 47-730-4 receiving line during his final season at San Jose State does paint the picture of a TE with some level of receiving upside.
That’s life without a full offseason to replace former No. 8 overall pick T.J. Hockenson. It’d make a lot of sense if the Lions add another body (or two) to the room with one of their five picks inside the draft’s top-81 selections.
Dream match: Utah TE Dalton Kincaid. It wouldn’t make all that much sense for the Lions to devote serious resources to their TE room so soon after trading away Hockenson. However, Kincaid certainly boasts the receiving upside to improve the team’s current group. He’s THE TE1 in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie TE Super Model.
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3. Cincinnati Bengals
The absence of Hayden Hurst leaves the Bengals without a true No. 1 TE just one season after C.J. Uzomah also left for greener grass during the offseason.
Perhaps Irv Smith is that guy, pal.
Hand up. I am a long-time Smith truther who has been burned again and again for drafting him in fantasy land. That said, the 24-year-old talent does boast the sort of size (6’2) and speed (4.63-second 40-yard dash) to theoretically provide more upside than your typical dad-bod option at the position.
And yet, Smith’s one-year, $1.75 million contract includes just $400,000 guaranteed. It’s tough to assume someone will be the starter when they could just as easily be cut before the season.
Glass-half full view: Like the Cowboys, whoever wins the starting job enters an already loaded passing game as the likely No. 4 (at best) pass-game option.
Glass-half-empty view: Unlike the Cowboys, the Bengals simply haven’t made a habit of keeping their TEs overly involved with Joe Burrow under center.
- 2020: C.J. Uzomah: 10.7 expected PPR points per game (TE10)
- 2021: Uzomah: 6.3 (TE27)
- 2022: Hayden Hurst: 8.4 (TE16)
Dream match: Georgia TE Darnell Washington. An athletic freak who doesn’t need a featured pass-game role in order to impact games. Washington would slide in nicely to an offense that could really use his blocking on the edge.
4. Miami Dolphins
New Patriots “TE” Mike Gesicki was used as a more traditional inline option under head coach Mike McDaniel in 2022 than in previous years. But yet, he still lined up in the slot or out wide on 66% of his snaps.
Gesicki doesn’t even celebrate National TE Day. He’s a big slot receiver who was playing out of position in 2022, thanks to the team’s high-end options at WR.
This takes us to the 2023 edition of the Dolphins' offense. Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert and Tanner Conner currently make up the TE room, and only Smythe (88-809-3 in 79 career games) has demonstrated any sort of receiving prowess at the NFL level.
Whoever winds up winning the job will be a distant No. 3 pass-game option behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Still, the TE depth is weaker than most squads. A young TE could do worse than a potential day-one starting job at a position notorious for slow fantasy starts.
Dream match: Iowa TE Sam LaPorta. Far more of a true inline TE than Mike Gesicki (who isn’t?). LaPorta would provide Tua Tagovailoa with a reliable underneath and intermediate option to complement the offense’s speedy game-changers.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The team never seriously replaced Rob Gronkowski or O.J. Howard, leaving fourth-round rookie Cade Otton and long-time No. 2 option Cameron Brate to shoulder most of the load in 2022.
Similar to Miami: Whoever earns the starting job will undoubtedly be behind the offense’s pair of stud WRs in the passing game pecking order.
Dissimilar to Miami: This doesn’t exactly profile as one of the league’s more efficient passing attacks.
Still, Otton played north of 80% of the offense’s snaps on seven separate occasions last season, which is awfully rare for a rookie at the position considering the nuance required to be NFL-ready as both a receiver and blocker.
It’s not a given that new offensive coordinator Dave Canales will replicate this willingness to let the starting TE cook. But the soft depth chart competition still lands the Bucs inside my top five most fantasy-friendly landing spots at the position.
Dream match: Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave. This would be a far bigger investment in the position than anyone else currently on the roster, and Musgrave boasts the sort of tools to be more productive in the pros than he was in college.
Other Notes
The next two teams with a pretty clear need at the position are the Packers and Commanders. Although, the former has a history of rotating three TEs at a time under head coach Matt LaFleur, and the latter is contingent on Logan Thomas getting cut and/or retiring. Even then, the potential new Washington TE would likely be the No. 4 pass-game option behind the offense’s trio of talented WRs in an offense not expected to blow up many scoreboards. … The Raiders technically have the most available targets available at the position, but already made some big-ish signings by bringing in Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard. … The Titans and Texans are similar to the Raiders in that they have plenty of available opportunity but also seemingly have guys in Chigoziem Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz ready to seize most of said available targets. … The Broncos stand out as one of the only other teams without a clear-cut starter or established committee. But even still, rising second-year TE Greg Dulcich showed off enough upside as a rookie to potentially warrant more chances under new head coach Sean Payton.
