The Utilization Report. Everything You Need For Fantasy Football In Week 16.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. James Cook moves into RB1 territory with Joe Brady calling plays.

In Week 15, Cook exploded for a season-high 36.1 points. Since Brady took over the play-calling duties in Week 11, Cook has been dominant, averaging 24.1 points per contest. While the Bills' run-heavy game plan against a Cowboys defense that wants to rush the passer was a significant factor, Cook registered his best utilization marks since Brady took over.

In seven drives with the starters, Cook had even better numbers than the game log shows. He accounted for 62% of snaps and 60% of the attempts in seven drives with the starters. 

While it is hard to know if Brady these numbers will hold moving forward — one thing is for sure — Cook is now a primary option in the passing attack with a 31% TPRR over the last four games. And we aren’t just talking dump-off passes. Cook averages a 3.4 aDOT with Brady as a mismatch weapon on downfield targets.

Latavius Murray and Josh Allen continue to poach carries inside the five-yard line, which holds Cook back from elite utilization. Still, the former Round 2 NFL draft pick averages 17 attempts and 4.8 targets per game under Brady and has a strong comp group, even after accounting for his limited role around the goal line.

Based on the last 12 years of data, the average finish is RB11, with 16.6 points per game.

Outlook: Cook UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory and offers high-end RB1 upside.

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2. Joe Flacco has UNLOCKED David Njoku.

Njoku has been a solid fantasy producer since Week 7, finishing as a top-12 option every week except Week 13. His 22% target share ranks fourth in the NFL, but the Browns' run-first mentality and QB accuracy woes have kept the talented TE from accessing ceiling games. 

However, since Joe Flacco took over the reins, the Browns have morphed into a pass-first operation with a 7% DBOE.

Cleveland ranks No. 1 in time of possession (55%) for the season, and now those plays are pass plays more often than not, with a dropback rate of 68% with Flacco under center. While the 38-year-old QB hasn’t been hyper-accurate, his 58% completion rate is a sizable upgrade over P.J. Walker (49%) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (54%).

In three games with Flacco, Njoku averages 19.1 fantasy points per game with 9.3 targets per contest.

Njoku has always had a solid underlying talent profile, but TE rotations, QB play, and scheme have derailed his path to high-end finishes — all things that have amazingly come into perfect alignment since the Flacco takeover.

Outlook: Njoku UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status and could challenge for a top-three finish over the final weeks.

3. Calvin Ridley’s utilization is WR1-worthy without Christian Kirk.

After steaming up fantasy draft boards last summer, Ridley hasn’t paid off, with just 12.3 points per contest. However, Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football of the year, averaging 281 yards and 1.8 TDs per contest since Week 11 — and Ridley’s target competition has depleted.

In two games without Christian Kirk, Ridley has 24% and 29% target shares — 11.5 looks per game.

Ridley averages 142 air yards per contest (33%) and has three end zone targets in two games without Kirk. It is a small sample, but this all adds up to WR1-worthy utilization.

With Zay Jones considered week-to-week after injuring his hamstring late in Week 15, the Jaguars passing attack could further consolidate with Ridley and Evan Engram as the primary beneficiaries.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) hauls in a reception for a touchdown score during the third quarter an NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Tennessee Titans 34-14. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

While things haven’t worked out so far for Ridley, the former first-rounder has delivered high-end fantasy finishes over his career, and he was close to a bigger game on Sunday. This column focuses on the larger picture, and regression says good things are coming for Ridley.

Outlook: Ridley UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and will quickly ascend toward WR1 status with another big utilization game in Week 16.

4. Rashee Rice’s role continues to grow.

Last week, Rice upgraded to mid-range WR2 territory thanks to a season-high 82% route participation. That high lasted only one game as Rice surged to 93% in Week 15.

Since establishing himself as a 65%-plus route participation player in Week 12, Rice has averaged 20.8 fantasy points. He leads the team with a juicy 29% target share over that span, with 9.5 targets per game.  

Things can change quickly in fantasy, and Rice has climbed from WR4 status into the WR1 conversation in just four games.

He is locked into a top-two role in a pass-first offense without much target competition and an elite QB in Patrick Mahomes. This is a dream scenario for the rookie.

Outlook: Rice UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory.

5. Arthur Smith remains public enemy No. 1 in Fantasyland.

Over a four-game stretch from Week 10 to Week 14, it looked like Smith finally realized that getting the ball to his playmakers was a good idea. Bijan Robinson averaged 21.5 opportunities, delivering 18.9 fantasy points per game. 

Heading into a Week 15 matchup against Carolina — one of the worst run defenses in the NFL — fantasy managers licked their chops as they prepared for a fantasy playoff feast. However, Smith sent Robinson managers away on an empty stomach after allotting a season-low 10 opportunities to his prized first-round selection.

Robinson remained active in the passing game with a 57% route participation and 16% target share, but he was limited to only 23% of the rushing attempts. Cordarrelle Patters sniped a carry inside the five-yard line on an end-around that resulted in the Falcons' only TD on the day.

I wish I could console fantasy managers and tell them things will get better, but I can’t. Smith is unpredictable, and perhaps the only positive we can glean from this collapse against the Panthers is from the 30,000-foot view. Maybe this loss opens the door for the team to move on from their hard-to-like head coach. With the right coach and a QB upgrade, the Falcons likely have three fantasy superstars in Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Outlook: We can’t ignore Robinson’s solid utilization leading up to this game, but it is a reminder of the bizarre nature of his head coach — Robinson DOWNGRADES to low-end RB1 status.

6. Noah Brown stepped up his game with Nico Collins sidelined.

Despite a below-average target-earning ability with a 17% TPRR, the Texans saw something in Brown and signed him to a $2.6M contract for one year last offseason. The seventh-year WR might have earned all that in Week 15, keeping the Texans' post-season hopes alive with eight receptions for 82 yards and a TD from backup QB Case Keenum.

Brown dominated with a 32% target share and 46% air yards share, ending the day with 22.2 fantasy points.

While it isn’t realistic to assume Brown can retain this sort of target share, he also offers big-play ability, as demonstrated by his 27.3 and 24.2-point fantasy outings In Weeks 9 and 10 despite target shares of 16% and 21%. Brown provides a lot of outs in a pass-first offense with an elite young QB in C.J. Stroud.

Outlook: Brown UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status but offers WR2 potential in games without Collins if Stroud is in the lineup.

7. Gus Edwards falls back into a viable fantasy role.

Edwards was on a fantasy heater from Week 7 until Week 10, averaging 19.3 points per game before Keaton Mitchell transformed the Ravens backfield into a three-headed committee. With Mitchell now out for the season, Edwards should return to a role that offers 15-plus touch upside on an offense that provides him with multi-TD upside. The veteran bruiser has 17 attempts inside the five-yard line — the third most in the NFL.

In contests where Edwards has reached 45% of Baltimore’s rushing attempts, he has delivered 14.2 fantasy points per outing. Based on data since 2012, that number typically leads to a mid-range RB2 finish.

Expect Justice Hill to account for much of the passing down work, but Edwards is a decent bet to push for 50% of the attempts. The 49ers aren’t an easy matchup in Week 16, but James Conner registered 17.9 points against them in a role similar to Edwards in Week 15.

Outlook: Edwards UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and offers RB1 upside thanks to his high-leverage role inside the five.

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

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Running Back Utilization Bytes

• Aaron Jones: Jones returned to the lineup, commanding 74% of the Packers’ rushing attempts with A.J. Dillon (thumb) out of action. Patrick Taylor relieved Jones of LDD (long down and distance) and two-minute offense work. Jones is a mid-range RB2 who offers RB1 upside in games without Dillon.
   
• Antonio Gibson: Gibson only handled 25% of the rushing attempts despite the absence of Brian Robinson against the Rams. Rookie Chris Rodriguez led the team, lugging the ball 63% of the time. Gibson took all the two-minute work, but Jonathan Williams played in LDD situations. Gibson is a mid-range RB3 in games without Robinson.
   
• Breece Hall: In a blowout loss, Hall didn’t touch the field in the fourth quarter as the Jets let rookie Israel Abanikanda close out the game. In the first half, Hall handled 71% of the rushing attempts and posted a 45% route participation. Hall remains a mid-range RB2 despite his 2.8-point Week 15 flop.
   
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: CEH averaged 14.5 fantasy points as the team’s primary RB in two games without Pacheco. The former Round 1 NFL draft pick handled 65% of the team’s rushing totes and averaged an 11% target share. However, Pacheco should return in Week 15, per Andy Reid. Edwards-Helaire DOWNGRADES to RB5-status if Pacheco is back.
   
• Devin Singletary: Singletary dominated the Texans' backfield against the Titans, handling 75% of snaps, 81% of attempts, and a 58% route participation. In four games since Dameon Pierce's return, he has been the lead back in three contests, averaging 57% of the attempts. Singletary UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and offers RB1 potential if his Week 15 utilization holds.
   
• D’Onta Foreman: Foreman’s snaps (23%) and attempts (24%) plummeted after looking like the Bears’ committee lead in Week 14. Roschon Johnson led the team with a 53% snap share thanks to his role on passing downs in a trailing script. The Chicago backfield is unpredictable and best if avoided in fantasy. Foreman DOWNGRADES to high-end RB4 status.
   
• Isaiah Spiller: Spiller’s role has expanded over the last two games, with 32% and 59% of the rushing attempts. The Chargers were getting blown out in Week 15 against the Raiders, so we can’t assume this role sticks. However, he looks like the better option than Joshua Kelley at this point. Spiller is a stash RB6 option.
   
• James Conner: The 28-year-old RB continues to split time but has reached 16-plus opportunities in four of five games since returning from injury. The Cardinals' schedule isn’t easy with the Bears and Eagles up next, but Conner managed 17.9 fantasy points against a solid 49ers squad in Week 14. Over the last two games, the Cardinals have committed to the run with -11% and -14% DBOE marks. Conner is a low-end RB2.
   
• Jaylen Warren: The second-year back dominated passing-down work with a season-high 83% route participation against the Colts. Warren took 94% of the LDD snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense. We only have one data point, but if this role continues, it could be significant considering his 28% TPRR, which ranks No. 3 in the NFL. Warren remains a high-end RB3 but could enter the RB2 conversation in PPR formats if he takes over the primary passing-down workload.
   
• Javonte Williams: Williams crashed and burned in the fantasy box score with only four points. The game script pushed Williams down to a 48% snap share, but his rushing attempt share of 44% — his lowest mark in a healthy game this year — was even more concerning. However, his four-game utilization trend is still stronger than his 10.5-point average. Based on historical comp data, backs in his role averaged 14.4 points with an RB15 finish. Williams remains a mid-range RB2.
   
• Trey Sermon: After a shoulder injury knocked Zack Moss out of the game, Sermon led the Colts backfield. The fourth-year RB accounted for 61% of snaps, 59% of attempts and a 53% route participation, scoring 8.8 fantasy points. Tyler Goodson also worked in with 38% of the attempts and a 35% route participation with 9.9 points. Sermon offers low-end RB2 potential if Moss and Jonathan Taylor miss more time. Goodson would be a low-end RB3.
   
• Ty Chandler: The second-year RB exploded for 25 fantasy points, handling 82% of the rushing attempts and garnering a 12% target share with Alexander Mattison out. Mattison could rejoin the team in Week 16, but Kevin O’Connell noted that they want to continue to feature Chandler. What the word feature means to one coach is different than another, but there is a chance Chandler will take over the lead role the rest of the way after averaging 5.7 yards per tote. Chandler is a mid-range RB2 without Mattison and a mid-range RB3 with Mattison.
   
• Zamir White: White bogarted 70% of snaps and 65% of rushing attempts and posted a 59% route participation. Essentially, he stepped right into the Josh Jacobs role, making him a lock for solid volume should the veteran miss another game. White is a volume-based RB2 if Jacobs can’t play in Week 16.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

• Amari Cooper: Cooper notched his third-highest finish of the year with 20.9 points in Week 15. With the Browns moving to a pass-first offense with Flacco under center, the veteran WR averages 10.5 targets per healthy contest. Cooper UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
   
• Cedrick Wilson: Wilson was the No. 2 WR with Tyeek Hill sidelined. He posted a 76% route participation and 12% target share. Wilson isn’t a high-end target earner but could come up with a spike performance if Hill misses more time — he is a WR6.
   
• Chris Godwin: Godwin quietly bogarted 39% of the Buccaneers targets in Week 14 while delivering a WR31 finish. However, he exploded for a top-five outing with 26 points on a 42% target share in Week 15. The seventh-year WR has a long history of providing fantasy value, so there is a chance he stays hot through the end of the year. Godwin UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status.
   
• Darius Slayton: The Giants' receiving corps has been a mess all year, but Slayton has a 95% route participation over the last two contests. There is a chance they have finally settled on the threesome of Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt. Slayton re-enters the WR5 conversation.
   
• Demarcus Robinson: Robinson tallied his second top-24 WR finish in as many weeks with Tutu Atwell sidelined again. Robinson has an 18% target share with 14.5 fantasy points per game since Atwell went down. Expect Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to make it challenging for a third option to shine consistently in L.A., but the Rams offense is peaking. Robinson is a low-end WR5, with Atwell likely to return on Thursday.
   
• D.J. Montgomery: The undrafted fifth-year WR posted a 77% route participation and a 25% target share after Michael Pittman left the game due to a concussion. Montgomery made the most of his opportunity, snaring two of four targets and compiling 48 yards and a TD. Montgomery is a WR6 in deeper formats and could offer DFS salary relief if Pittman misses time.
   
• Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks delivered 15.7 fantasy points with Christian Watson out of the lineup in Week 15. The rookie WR has a respectable 20% TPRR and 2.00 YPRR on the season. Wicks is a name to remember in dynasty formats and is a WR4 in games where the Packers are missing a WR.
   
• Jameson Williams: The former Round 1 NFL Draft selection garnered a season-high route participation of 72% and a 27% TPRR. He finished second on the team behind Amon-Ra St. Brown with a 22% target share. It is only one data point, but Williams worked ahead of Josh Reynolds for the first time. Reynolds was limited by a back injury in practice, which could be the driving factor. However, Williams could take over the No. 2 WR role in Detroit and is available in almost 80% of leagues. Williams UPGRADES to WR5 status.
   
• Jayden Reed: Reed battled injuries that limited him to a 41% route participation in Week 15. Thanks to a sizzling 47% TPRR, the rookie still led the team with seven targets (22%) on his way to 17.2 fantasy points. Reed is a low-end WR2 to high-end WR3.
   
• Jaylen Waddle: With Tyreek Hill out of the lineup, Waddle dusted the Jets’ highly lauded secondary for 28 fantasy points on a 38% target share. However, the absence of Hill isn’t the only reason Waddle went off — this performance was overdue. The third-year WR had target shares of 29%, 33% and 24% in the games leading up to Week 15. Waddle is a mid-range WR2, and more WR1 performances are in his range of outcomes even when Hill returns.
   
• Jonathan Mingo: Mingo continues to dud in the fantasy box score but has a 20% target share or higher in six straight games — averaging 24%. The rookie is now up to 18% for the season with a 26% air yards share, and he could up that further. As of Week 15, his closest historical rookie season comps are mostly busts, but we do have a few decent names in Robert Woods, Nico Collins, Kenny Golladay and Josh Gordon. Mingo remains a WR6 stash play, but we will revisit his dynasty status at the end of the season.
   
• Jordan Addison: Despite Justin Jefferson’s return to the lineup, Addison notched a 92% route participation. Before Jefferson’s injury, he was the WR3 after K.J. Osborn, so this is encouraging news for the rookie WR. He is still likely the No. 3 option after Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, but he isn’t reliant on 11 personnel to see the field and offers big-play upside. Addison scored a whopping 29 fantasy points despite finishing third on the team in targets in Week 15. Addison is a boom-bust WR4.
   
• Joshua Palmer: Palmer returned from IR with an 83% route participation and 13% target share. He delivered a WR12 finish with 21.3 points with Keenan Allen out of the lineup. The third-year WR won’t have the benefit of playing with Justin Herbert (IR) but should be the No. 2 for Easton Stick moving forward. Palmer UPGRADES to high-end WR4 status.
   
• Kadarius Toney: Rice isn’t the only player surging higher in route participation. Toney tallied a season-high 50% route participation in Week 15. Skyy Moore left the game early with a knee issue and landed on IR on Monday. Toney has a healthy 24% TPRR on the season and could provide some nice spike performances in an expanded role. Toney UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory on the chance that his new role sticks.
   
• Michael Wilson: The rookie WR returned to action in a near full-time role with an 89% route participation. He came up empty in the box score and only accounted for 8% of the Cardinals’ targets. Wilson now sits at a 14% TPRR for the year, which isn’t a great sign for his future. Most third- and fourth-round NFL Draft WRs with his Year 1 profile haven’t gone on to much fantasy success in the following years. His closest comps are Gabriel Davis, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Terrance Williams. However, with Marquise Brown looking iffy with a heel injury, Wilson has one more chance to flash over the final three games of 2023. Wilson is a stash WR6 and punt play for DFS purposes. 
   
• Tee Higgins: Higgins came through with 22.1 fantasy points — his second-highest total of the season. He averages 12.7 points in contests with at least an 80% route participation. Ja’Marr Chase suffered a shoulder injury, which could push Higgins up the ranks in the coming weeks if Chase can’t play. Jake Browning has proven capable of supporting fantasy points, and Higgins has flashed WR1 upside in the past in games without Chase. Higgins remains a WR3 but UPGRADES to WR2 status if Chase misses time.
   
• Terry McLaurin: McLaurin erupted with six catches for 141 yards and a TD on 12 targets against the Rams. However, 93 of his yards and the TD came on three targets from Jacoby Brissett, who replaced Sam Howell. McLaurin remains a low-end WR3.
   
• Treylon Burks: Burks registered his highest route participation (89%) since Week 1. He delivered a 12% target share and 9.4 fantasy points. Finally healthy, he could be the No. 2 behind Hopkins moving forward. Burks UPGRADES to WR5 territory.
   
• Wan’Dale Robinson: The second-year WR has an 85% route participation over the last four games with a 21% target share. Robinson UPGRADES to low-end WR4 status.
   
• Xavier Hutchinson: Hutchinson registered a season-high 88% route participation, receiving more playing time than John Metchie in back-to-back weeks. Hutchinson hasn’t done much with his routes, with a 9% TPRR on the season, but he could offer salary relief in DFS. Hutchinson is a WR6 punt play.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

• Dalton Kincaid: In the second game with Dawson Knox back in the fold, Kincaid saw his route participation fall to 68% in seven drives with the starters. While it is only one data point, it is worth noting that 68% was Kincaid’s average over the first five games of the year with a healthy Knox. Over that stretch, he had only an 11% target share and averaged 5.8 fantasy points. I don’t want to overreact and boot Kincaid from the TE1 ranks, but he DOWNGRADES to low-end TE1 territory.
   
• Dalton Schultz: Schultz returned from a two-game absence with an 85% route participation. He scored 9.8 fantasy points but could be in store for much more when C.J. Stroud returns to the lineup. Schultz is a mid-range TE1.
   
• Darren Waller: Waller played his first game since Week 8 and led the team with a 22% TPRR on a 49% route participation. The Giants offense is hardly anything to get excited about, but Waller doesn’t have much target competition. He garnered 38%, 23% and 30% target shares in his last three games before the injury. Waller UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status and could rejoin the low-end TE1 group with more routes.
   
• Hunter Henry: In three full games with Bailey Zappe, Henry averages 14.3 fantasy points thanks to three receiving TDs. His 20% target share with Zappe ranks third behind DeVante Parker (27%) and Ezekiel Elliott (24%). Henry UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status.
   
• Isaiah Likely: The second-year TE led the Ravens with a 29% target share in Week 15 on his way to another good fantasy outing with 18 points. Likely has back-to-back top-5 finishes and could be in for more — he has elite route participation (87%) since Mark Andrews went down. Likely UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.
   
• Tommy Tremble: Tremble registered a season-high 71% route participation, with Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas missing the game. Hurst is out for the season, so if we get another game without Thomas, Tremble moves into punt-play territory for DFS purposes.
   
• Tucker Kraft: In four games without Luke Musgrave, Kraft has averaged 10.8 fantasy points and has three top-12 finishes. He hasn’t done much as a target earner (13% TPRR), but his 86% route participation is elite. The rookie will likely need a TD to offer fantasy relevance, but that is true for many TEs. Kraft UPGRADES to the high-end TE2 conversation until Musgrave returns.