Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. Zay Flowers is closing his rookie campaign with a bang.

Since the Ravens lost Mark Andrews in Week 11, Flowers has averaged 17 fantasy points. The Round 1 NFL Draft pick has led Baltimore's receiving corps with a 22% target share, and in Week 17 he registered his fourth finish inside the top 13 WRs in that five-game span.

Flowers leads the team in end zone targets and third- and fourth-down targets, and a juicy 42% of his looks come against play action. Over the last five seasons, a play-action target has been worth 20% more than a non-play-action target when it comes to fantasy points.

Ravens Passcatchers

Flowers could have had an even bigger day against the Dolphins but was battling a calf injury that kept him out of practice most of last week. The Ravens didn’t give Flowers his usual workload, limiting his route participation to 54%.

The Ravens have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, securing home-field advantage and a first-round bye. We might not see Flowers in Week 18 if the Ravens want to get him healthy, but the rookie WR could be a significant factor in playoff best ball tournaments if Baltimore makes a Super Bowl run.

Outlook: Flowers UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.

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2. Aaron Jones is healthy but stuck in a three-way committee.

Jones has averaged 14.5 fantasy points over the last two games, averaging 20.5 attempts and two targets. Jones could have had an even bigger day in Week 17, but his services weren’t needed in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand for the Packers.

A.J. Dillon also battled a wrist injury, making it hard to decipher the potential workload split in Green Bay moving forward. Still, Jones certainly deserves the edge after the last two games.

Packers RBs

Dillon remains a nuisance inside the five-yard line, and Patrick Taylor is stealing the passing down work that would send Jones’ fantasy stock to the moon.

The Packers will punch their ticket to the playoffs with a victory over the Bears in Week 18, and Jones looks like a mid-range RB2 heading into that matchup. However, we know the ceiling is much higher based on history — Jones is capable of putting up RB1 performances as the lead option in a time-share situation.

Outlook: Jones is a mid-range RB2 who offers high-end RB1 upside if more of the passing game work comes his way.

3. Isiah Pacheco has every-down prowess if given the opportunity.

With Jerick McKinnon on IR and Clyde Edwards-Healaire out due to illness, Pacheco handled 92% of the snaps. The second-year back handled 90% of the rushing attempts and notched an 82% route participation against the Bengals, delivering a colossal fantasy performance with 30 points.

The most impressive aspect of his Week 17 performance was his 25% target share, which led the Chiefs.

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In recent years, Andy Reid has embraced the committee approach at RB, but there was a time not too long ago when playing RB for Reid was considered the creme de la creme situation.

In two games where Pacheco has reached 65% route participation, he has proven that still to be the case, averaging 28 fantasy points.

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Dec 31, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) carries the ball out of the backfield in the first quarter during a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Edwards-Helaire could be back next week, and McKinnon is eligible to return in the divisional round if the Chiefs advance out of the first round. We will likely see a return to some form of committee, but the upside of Pacheco in an every-down role is now quantifiable.

Outlook: Pacheco is a high-end RB2 with massive RB1 upside if the Chiefs expand Pacheco’s role in the passing attack.

4. Jaylen Warren has taken over all of the passing-down work.

Warren has route participation marks of 83%, 59% and 81% over the last three games. He has handled 97% of LDD situations and has been on the field for 98% of the Steelers’ two-minute offense snaps.

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The second-year back has averaged 10.3 attempts and a sweet 5.3 targets per contest in his new role. Based on the last 12 years of data, Warren’s closest comps averaged 16.2 points per game.

Outlook: Warren UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and offers high-end RB2 upside.

5. Demarcus Robinson stays hot as the WR3 for the Rams.

I still don’t buy into Robinson as a WR2 in fantasyland, but it is hard to argue with his 16-point per-game average over the last five contests. Over that span, Robinson has earned an every-down role, reaching a 94% route participation or better in four of five contests. Over that stretch, he has a 20% target share and leads the team with eight end-zone opportunities.

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Robinson has never been a high-end target earner, and the competition for targets is fierce with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. However, the Rams' passing offense is running hot at the right time, and Robinson’s role in the end zone keeps him in play even in games without significant target shares.

Outlook: Robinson UPGRADES to high-end WR4 territory based on comps using the last 12 seasons of data.

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

  • Josh Allen: Allen continues to score fantasy points, but his recent accuracy struggles paired with the run-heavy commitment of the Bills is problematic for the receiving weapons. Since Joe Brady took over the play-calling duties, Allen has completed only 57% of his passes — down from 70% over the first 10 games. Allen remains a high-end QB1 thanks to his rushing prowess, but his play is deflating the value of the receivers.
     
  • Justin Fields: Fields will be an interesting player to follow this offseason, with the Bears in position to take a QB high in the draft. The verdict is still out on the third-year signal-caller in NFL circles, but his value in fantasy isn’t in question. Since returning from injury, Fields has averaged 21 points per game with three top-three finishes in five games. He has garnered 22% of the Bears’ designed run concepts and has a 9% scramble rate over that stretch. Fields is a mid-range QB1 with an overall QB1 upside.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • De’Von Achane: With Raheem Mostert out, Achane commanded 59% of the rushing attempts and garnered a 14% target share on his way to 24 fantasy points. Jeff Wilson handled most of the LDD (94%) and two-minute offense (67%) snaps, but the rookie more than doubled the veteran in opportunities 18 to 7. Achane is a mid-range RB1 in any games without Mostert.
     
  • Devin Singletary: The Texans continue to use three backs, but Singletary is the clear lead option. Since Dameon Pierce’s return to the lineup, Singletary has handled 58% of the rushing attempts and has a 10% target share. If the Texans can beat the Colts in Week 18, they will be in the playoffs. Singletary is a low-end RB2.
     
  • Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell took over the primary rushing duties after a calf injury forced Christian McCaffrey to exit the game in Week 17. The 49ers have the No. 1 seed locked up, meaning Mitchell is on tap for a more prominent role while the team rests CMC. Of course, the team could also rest other starters, lowering the upside of the overall offense. Mitchell UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status if the 49ers roll with mostly starters in Week 18, but will be a low-end RB2 option if we see more backups.
     
  • Jaleel McLaughlin: McLaughlin’s utilization has surged over the last two games, with 27% of the rushing attempts and 23% route participation. The rookie RB has a tantalizing 38% TPRR on the season, so even a tiny increase in opportunity can yield results with his big-play ability. McLaughlin UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory.
     
  • Jamaal Williams: Alvin Kamara left the contest with an ankle sprain that could keep him out of action in Week 18. After Kamara left the game, Williams dominated the Saints backfield, bogarting 82% of the rushing attempts and registering a healthy 58% route participation. Rookie KenDre Miller could return to the fold to challenge for playing time, but Williams UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status if Kamara misses time.
     
  • James Conner: Conner has compiled a 19.5 attempts per game average over the last four games, averaging 22.3 fantasy points despite tough matchups, including the 49ers and Eagles. The Cardinals have turned to a run-heavy formula with a minus-9% DBOE to close the season, enhancing Conner’s value. The seven-year vet is a mid-range RB2.
     
  • James Cook: After sun running with a 24-point fantasy average in his first four games with Joe Brady calling plays, Cook has run ice-cold in his last two outings with RB38 and RB44 performances. The underlying commitment to Cook remains strong, with 20 and 19 opportunities in the previous two contests, thanks to the Bills' commitment to the run game. However, their minus-12% DBOE over the last three games also means less work in the passing game for the second-year RB, which is where he excels. Cook is a high-end RB2 option on a team that could leap into the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win over the Dolphins in Week 18.
     
  • Jerome Ford: The second-year back erupted for 26 fantasy points in Week 17 against the Jets thanks to two receiving TDs. He has been a revelation in the passing attack, with a 20% TPRR this season. The Browns are on fire right now, which provides Ford with a new-found upside thanks to the scoring opportunities, but his utilization remains unchanged in a three-way committee. Kareem Hunt continues to bogart almost all the work inside the five-yard line. Ford is a mid-range to low-end RB2 option.
     
  • Justice Hill: The Year 5 vet popped for 22 fantasy points thanks to a significant role in the passing attack. Hill registered a 54% route participation and 23% target share, dominating the LDD (71%) and two-minute snaps (71%). Hill has RB31 and RB9 finishes since Keaton Mitchell left the lineup. Gus Edwards continues to get the early-down work and totes inside the five-yard line, but Hill UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status in PPR formats.
     
  • Kenneth Walker: Despite playing with an injured shoulder, Walker again dominated the ground game for the Seahawks. Over the last three contests, he averages 80% of Seattle’s rushing attempts. Zach Charbonnet handles almost all of the LDD and two-minute work. Walker is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside in friendly game scripts.
     
  • Khalil Herbert: With D’Onta Foreman out again (coach’s decision), Herbert again held down the lead role. The third-year back has a 56% rush share and an 8% target share in the last two games without Foreman, averaging 20 fantasy points. Roschon Johnson steals work inside the five-yard line and handles the LDD (87%) and two-minute (100%) snaps. Herbert UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status as a game-script-dependent back capable of RB1 performances. If Foreman returns for Week 18, all bets are off.
     
  • Tank Bigsby: Bigsby emerged from the Week 17 victory over the Titans with a 30% rush share. It was his first significant action since Week 12, and it wasn’t just a game script scenario. Bigsby handled 33% of the carries in the first quarter. Bigsby is a late-round stash option in Jaguars builds for playoff best ball.
     
  • Travis Etienne: Etienne is the new Tony Pollard — the utilization percentages are always healthy, but we don’t know what to expect in the box score. However, thanks to a long TD run in Week 17, Etienne notched a top-six finish with 26 fantasy points. Etienne remains a high-end RB2.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • Bengals WRs: Ja’Marr Chase returned to lead the team with a 23% target share, but Tee Higgins was unable to finish the contest due to a hamstring injury. With the Bengals eliminated from the playoffs, they could shut all of their stars down.
     
  • Bo Melton: The second-year WR has stepped up his game over the last two contests, with multiple Packers dealing with injuries. Melton has a 23% target share and a 37% TPRR, which unlocked a 23-point performance in Week 17 against the Vikings. Melton UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 status if Jayden Reed and one of Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks can’t play.
     
  • Calvin Ridley: Ridley bogarted 29% of the Jaguars' targets but ultimately came up small in the fantasy box score with only eight points. Since the loss of Christian Kirk, Ridley averages 9.4 targets and 127 air yards per contest. If the Jaguars get Trevor Lawrence back under center in Week 18, keeping Ridley outside the top 18 options at WR will be hard. Ridley remains a high-end WR2 if Lawrence starts, but DOWNGRADES to low-end WR2 territory if Lawrence can’t play.
     
  • Cedrick Wilson: Wilson took over Waddle’s role with an 89% route participation. Unfortunately, higher route participation doesn’t always mean more targets, and Wilson only corralled an 11% target share. Even if Waddle misses more time, Wilson is a WR5 at best.
     
  • Chiefs WRs: Despite a pregame report that the Chiefs would lean more intensely on Richie James and Justyn Ross, both WRs experienced a reduction in route participation in Week 17. James and Ross remain speculative WR6 punt plays in playoff best ball contests.
     
  • George Pickens: In two games with Mason Rudolph under center, Pickens has 24% and 45% target shares, unlocking 36- and 20-point fantasy performances. We saw the second-year WR shine early in the year with Diontae Johnson out of the lineup, but now he is authoring high-end fantasy finishes despite the target competition. Pickens UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory with Rudolph under center.
     
  • Greg Dortch: Dortch registered a 23% target share in Week 17 against the Eagles — leading the Cardinals WRs. Since Marquise Brown left the lineup, Dortch has a 15% target share, averaging 10.7 fantasy points. He has two top-30 finishes with WR28 and WR23 performances. Dortch UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 status with Brown on IR.
     
  • Jerry Jeudy: In a game without Courtland Sutton or Marvin Mims, Jeudy registered a lowly 64% route participation. He led the team with a 26% TPRR, but the limited exposure to the field kept his fantasy day in check with only eight points. Jeudy remains a mid-range WR4.
     
  • Julio Jones: Jones popped with 17 fantasy points thanks to two receiving TDs on a 72% route participation and 13% target share. The veteran WR isn’t a primary option in the offense, but DeVonta Smith suffered an ankle injury that could keep him out of action in Week 18. If Smith is inactive, Jones becomes a desperation play as a WR5.
     
  • Michael Pittman: Pittman only managed 10 fantasy points in Week 17 but notched a 96% route participation with a 35% target share in his first game back from a concussion. Pittman is a low-end WR1 heading into a Week 18 matchup against the Texans — with both teams battling for a playoff spot. 
     
  • Nico Collins: Collins led the Texans with a 26% target share despite a less-than-stellar 71% route participation in Week 17. The third-year WR could still be battling back from a calf injury that kept him out of Week 15. Collins has a WR1-worthy 26% TPRR on the season and could be the centerpiece of a Texans passing attack looking to beat the Colts for a playoff birth in Week 18. Collins is a low-end WR1 with high-end WR1 upside.
     
  • Rashod Bateman: With Flowers playing through a calf injury, Bateman notched his largest route participation (88%) of the season and led the Ravens with a 27% target share. This was the second significant target share for the third-year WR over the last three games — he had a 29% target share in Week 15. The fantasy points haven’t followed, but Bateman UPGRADES to low-end WR4 status and could make noise in the playoffs.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Dalton Kincaid: Dawson Knox left the game briefly to be checked for a concussion, but Kincaid led the team in route participation from the get-go in Week 17. The rookie garnered a 79% route participation and a 25% target share to lead the Bills. Predicting how Buffalo will deploy their TEs won’t be easy, but at least this shows they are still willing to use Kincaid in a full-time capacity in some matchups. Kincaid is a boom-bust low-end TE1.
     
  • Evan Engram: Engram pulled down a 100% route participation and 29% target share against the Titans. The veteran TE now has a 26% target share, averaging 9.6 opportunities per contest since the loss of Kirk. Engram UPGRADES to high-end TE1 status.
     
  • Isaiah Likely: In five contests without Andrews, Likely averages 14.4 fantasy points. He has TE16, TE3, TE5, TE21 and TE3 finishes over that stretch while averaging 4.8 targets (17%) per contest on an 85% route participation. His utilization mirrors that of a borderline TE1, but the second-year TE is running hot, making the most out of his opportunities. Likely profiles like a low-end TE1, but Mark Andrews could return to reclaim the No. 1 role in the playoffs.
     
  • Johnny Mundt: Mundt took over the vacated routes from T.J. Hockenson, posting an 84% route participation and registering a surprising 24% target share. Historically, the seventh-year TE has been known for his blocking prowess, but the Vikings are giving him a chance to contribute in the passing game. Mundt UPGRADES to mid-range TE2 status.
     
  • Juwan Johnson: Johnson has returned to the primary TE role with 74% and 69% route participation marks over the last two games. He has TE5 and TE1 finishes with 15 and 23 fantasy points on the back of 18% and 33% target shares. Johnson UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status.
     
  • Tanner Hudson: Hudson has 64% and 62% route participation marks over the last two games, making him the new Bengals’ TE committee leader. Hudson has a 23% TPRR on the season and could be the top option for Cincinnati next weekend if they shut down their star WRs with the playoffs now out of reach. Hudson is a high-end TE2.
Utilization Report