The Utilization Report. Everything You Need For Fantasy Football In Week 10.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. Tank Dell is a borderline WR2 after another scoring outburst.

Dell torched the Buccaneers' secondary with six receptions for 114 yards and two TDs on his way to a mouthwatering 30 fantasy points. Oh yeah, it could have been even bigger — he dropped two balls that would have given him another 25 yards before any run-after-catch goodness.

While this was Dell’s most significant performance to date, it was his third 20-plus point performance in only five games in a full-time role. The rookie is averaging 17.2 points in five contests where he has reached an 80% route participation.

While keeping up a 17-plus point-per-game pace might not be realistic in a crowded offense, Dell has a strong comp group based on utilization and efficiency data from the last 12 seasons. Similar profiles have averaged a WR23 finish with over 14.1 points per game.

My first inclination was to move Dell into the low-end WR2 range, but he still has a couple of obstacles to clear. First, Robert Woods hasn’t played the last two games, which has opened up a path for Dell to lead the team in routes. Second, Noah Brown has performed well since returning to the slot role, which could create a rotation once Woods returns.

Outlook: Dell UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and will move into WR2 territory if he holds onto playing time once Woods returns.

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2. The Packers cut Aaron Jones loose like they said they would.

Coach speak can be hard to decipher, but Matt Lafleur was saying all the right things about Jones heading into their Week 9 matchup.

And oh my… LaFleur backed it up.

Jones dominated the Packers backfield with 20 attempts and five targets on his way to 19 fantasy points.

We saw Jones on a similar trajectory in Week 1. Before his hamstring injury, he handled 70% of snaps, 45% of attempts and had a 73% route participation. 

While it is hard to be certain, there is a chance the Packers coaching staff has finally realized Jones is the superior option. A.J. Dillon is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry, and just 4.8% of his attempts have gone for 10-plus yards, ranking 44th out of 47 backs with at least 50 attempts.

Jones has finished as the RB4, RB3, RB12 and RB10 on a points-per-game basis over the last four seasons. Assuming his hamstring is well, Jones will quickly move back into the low-end RB1 conversation over the coming weeks.

Outlook: Jones UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status.

3. Is Jonathan Taylor back to bell-cow status?

JT managers thought the nightmare was over after a four-game IR stint while he and the team worked out a new deal. Never in their wildest dreams did they think Zack Moss would experience a breakout campaign that would keep Taylor locked in an annoying committee for another four games. Isn’t this a fun game that we all play?

While the situation has been frustrating, Taylor could be on the cusp of every-down territory. He has been trending upward for weeks, but in Week 9 he made a significant leap in almost every utilization category. The newly minted RB bogarted 75% of snaps, 62% of attempts and a 75% route participation. He didn’t leave the field in two-minute situations and took 80% of the LDD work.

In all, Taylor toted the rock 18 times and recorded five targets on the day. Unfortunately, his inefficiency woes continued, averaging only 2.6 yards per carry against a Panthers defense that has struggled against the run. 

For the season, Taylor’s 27.9% ROE% (percentage of rushes to go over expected) ranks fourth-worst per Next Gen Stats. Moss, on the other hand, has the eighth-highest mark at 44.7%. So, there is a chance the team reintegrates Moss if Taylor can’t get things turned around.

Outlook: Taylor UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status and will move into the RB1 group with another strong utilization day or if his efficiency improves.

4. Marquise Brown is a mid-range WR2 with Kyler Murray.

Brown is the No. 34 WR, averaging 12.5 points per game, but his underlying utilization tells us there could be much bigger days ahead. The fifth-year WR boasts the 13-best target share (28%) and air yards share (40%) in the NFL.

Unfortunately, out of all WRs with at least a 25% target share, Brown ranks second-to-last in catchable target rate at 68% despite his reasonable 11.6 aDOT. QB play has been a challenge for the Cardinals this year, and it reached a crescendo in Week 9 with Clayton Tune at the helm.

However, Kyler Murray is set to return to the fold in Week 10. The Cardinals are clearly in tank mode — they would draft No. 1 if the draft were tomorrow — but they also want to know what they have in Murray or at least boost his trade value.

Over the last 12 years, the average finish for a WR with Brown’s profile is WR22 with 14.3 points per game. That alone represents a full-tier jump from his low-end WR3 status today. However, last year, over the first six games with Murray at the helm, he was even better, averaging 18.3 points. If we take the middle ground, Brown looks like a mid-range WR2 with a QB upgrade.

Now is the time to BUY LOW on the former first-round NFL draft pick. Just remember that this is a fluid situation in Arizona. There is no guarantee that Murray will remain the starter for the rest of the season. If he delivers a few strong performances, the Cardinals could put him on ice to avoid injury and winning games that hurt their NFL draft position. So, only make a move if you can acquire Brown at a low-end WR3 price tag.

Outlook: Brown UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status with Murray at QB.

5. Keaton Mitchell is making a case for more playing time.

The undrafted rookie out of East Carolina finally got an opportunity to showcase his skills in Week 9 in a blowout victory over the Seahawks. Mitchell erupted for 138 rushing yards — including a 40-yard house call off the left guard in the third quarter and a 60-yard romp on a toss play in the fourth quarter.

One thing is immediately apparent when watching Mitchell — he is extremely fast. He has angle-erasing acceleration and the speed to pull away from second and third-level defenders. It is reminiscent of what we saw earlier this season from De’Von Achane. 

Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell (34) celebrates his touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, this is nothing new for Mitchell. His 21% career explosive rush rate in college tied for the No. 1 mark in the 2023 draft class, and he backed that up with a blistering 4.37 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.

While Mitchell’s big runs came in the second half of the game, he carried the ball four times in the second quarter, with the Ravens only up by seven points. In the first half, he matched Gus Edwards (4) and Justice Hill (4) in carries. Hill dominated the snaps against the Seahawks, but Mitchell finished with only four fewer opportunities.

Some fantasy managers will look at this situation and see a gross three-way split they don’t want to deal with. And there is some validity to that thought — Mitchell will be a tough back to get into your lineups next weekend, given his snap limitations. However, when we zoom out, Mitchell offers elite upside on a team that should have a lot of opportunities to score points.

We can’t predict how this backfield will shake out over the coming weeks, but Hill has hardly done anything to make him irreplaceable. Edwards and Mitchell could develop into a dynamic combination of power and speed down the stretch. Mitchell has the talent to push for more playing time, and if one of Hill or Edwards goes down, he could quickly climb into the league-winner conversation.

FAAB Recommendation: 15-30% (50%+ in deep leagues)

Outlook: Mitchell is a boom-bust RB4 with a realistic RB2 upside with more playing time. If everything breaks his way, he offers an RB1 ceiling.

6. Kenneth Walker is losing work to Zach Charbonnet.

Over the last two games, Charbonnet led the Seahawks in snaps. Walker held onto the primary rushing role, but Charbonnet led the way in route participation, taking over 100% of the LDD and two-minute offense.

The Seahawks invested second-round draft capital into Charbonnet, and Pete Carroll has been quick to praise the rookie in recent weeks. When you analyze the recent utilization and comments by Carroll, this trend could have legs.

It is worth noting that Walker was battling an injury heading into Week 8, and the Seahawks played in blowout conditions in Week 9 against the Ravens. However, Charbonnet out-snapped Walker 69% to 35% in the first half of Week 9 before the game was entirely out of hand.

These trends sometimes come and go, so we don’t want to overreact. But it is also a scenario where not reacting is probably ill-advised.

Walker Outlook: Walker DOWNGRADES to high-end RB2 status but will slip further with a similar data point in Week 10. 

Charbonnet Outlook: Charbonnet UPGRADES to mid-range RB4 territory and shouldn’t be available in 56% of leagues.

7. Can Jake Ferguson become an elite fantasy TE?

The second-year TE delivered a career-high 22 fantasy points against the Eagles in Week 9. The Cowboys desperately need a secondary option behind CeeDee Lamb, and Ferguson’s playing time has been on the rise for over the last four games.

Ferguson’s route participation is now in the high-end TE1 range, but his 19% TPRR is low-end TE1 material based on historical data. However, he may get a boost from a Cowboys attack that is suddenly more pass-friendly coming out of the bye. Over the last two games, Dallas has posted their two highest DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) outings of the season.

In Week 9, Ferguson parlayed his 23% target share into a whopping 10 targets thanks to an 11% DBOE. Dak Prescott is averaging 251 yards per game this year and is on a tear over the last three contests at 317.

If the Cowboys revert to their pre-bye passing attack and Ferguson doesn’t take a step forward as a target earner, he will finish the season as a borderline TE1. But if Dallas sticks to their recent game plan, Ferguson has mid-range TE1 potential.

Outlook: Ferguson is a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside.

QB Utilization Bytes:

• C.J. Stroud: Stroud is averaging a robust 284 yards per game after annihilating the Bucs secondary for 470 yards and five TDs. While the blowup game is excellent, Stroud has eclipsed 275 yards in four of eight outings and has multiple passing TDs in five. Since 2000, Justin Herbert, Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield are the only rookie QBs to average 265-plus yards per game. Stroud UPGRADES to low-end QB1 status.
   
• Deshaun Watson: Watson returned to action and posted the fourth-highest PFF pass grade of the week (78.5) with 219 yards and two TDs. Watson also scrambled three times for 22 yards on his way to 19 fantasy points. He is a high-end QB2 moving forward.

RB Utilization Bytes:

• Alexander Mattison: Cam Akers will miss the remainder of the season with another Achilles injury. With this development, Mattison is the frontrunner to handle the majority of the work in the Vikings backfield. Mattison UPGRADES to high-end RB3 status.
   
• Antonio Gibson: Gibson has five targets in each of the last two contests without Curtis Samuel patrolling the underneath zones. However, he averages only 2.8 attempts per game, which makes it difficult to deliver relevant fantasy performances. Gibson averages seven points per game, but his highest output is 13. Gibson is a low-end RB4.
   
• Bijan Robinson: I would love to look you all in the eye and tell you to remain calm, but I can’t. In the bizarro world that is Arthur Smith’s mind, the recipe for winning is handing the ball off to your TE inside the five-yard line. We haven’t seen a top-12 performance from the No. 8 pick in the NFL draft since Week 4. Robinson’s historical comps averaged 14.6 points and finished as the RB15. There is no doubt Robinson has outs due to his talent profile, but Smith is a fantasy heckler like none we have ever seen before. Robinson DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 status until something changes.
   
• Chuba Hubbard: Over the last two games, Hubbard averages 15.5 attempts and four targets. The Panthers offense isn’t good, but with that type of volume, he will have some relevant fantasy outings. Miles Sanders was the more efficient back in Week 9, but for now Hubbard looks to be the No. 1 in Carolina. He UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status.
   
• James Cook: Cook’s efficiency numbers remain healthy, but his inability to become more than an 8% target share player has torpedoed his fantasy value. Latavius Murray handled 100% of the two-minute offense in Week 9 and isn’t even good in the role. We could see Leonard Fournette take over those duties soon, and if he performs better than Murray, he could pose a more significant threat. The comp group for the Cook is deteriorating. The average finish for his profile is now RB26 with 11.8 per game — an exact match with his 2023 average. Cook DOWNGRADES to high-end RB3 status.
   
• Jerome Ford: Ford led the backfield in snaps (63%), rushing attempts (54%), route participation (59%) and targets (25%) against the Seahawks. In four healthy games since the Chubb injury, Ford averages 14 attempts and 4.5 targets. Kareem Hunt steals most of the work inside the five-yard line, but Ford handles most LDD (long down and distance) and two-minute snaps. RBs with that profile have averaged 14.6 points with an RB14 finish since 2011. Ford is a mid-range RB2 with additional upside if he can get more work around the goal line.
   
• Khalil Herbert: Herbert is eligible to return from IR in Week 10, but he will be hard to trust in lineups until we get a better feel for his role. The Bears have deployed a three-way backfield with Tyson Bagent under center and a two-way split with Justin Fields. Herbert is RB3 material for now.
   
• Rachaad White: White averages 14 attempts and 4.3 targets per game this season. He hasn’t been good on the ground, averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, but his historical comp group is still solid. Based on data from the last 12 seasons, the average finish of his comp group was RB16 with 14.4 points per game. That is right on the nose with the second-year back’s 14.6 average this year. White UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
   
• Ty Chandler: With Akers done for the season, Chandler could step back into his role as the backup to Mattison. Chandler is an RB6 stash option in large formats.
   
• Zack Moss: Moss has been a tremendous fantasy asset over the first eight weeks, but that might be over. He only played 19% of the snaps and handled 24% of the attempts in Week 9. He scored only three fantasy points and might only be handcuff material moving forward. However, don’t cut him if you have room. Moss has been much more efficient than Taylor, which means he has a path to relevance beyond just an injury. Moss DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB4 territory.

WR Utilization Bytes:

• Christian Watson: We now have four games where Watson cleared an 80% route participation. He has an 18% target share, averaging only 7.3 points. The second-year WR has only one top-36 finish in those four games. In a feeble passing attack with multiple weapons, Watson is struggling to make ends meet in 2023. Watson DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status.
   
• Davante Adams: Adams led the team with a 29% target share but only scored seven fantasy points with Aidan O’Connell at the helm in a blowout win. Adams has fantasy finishes of WR38, WR56, WR22, WR80 and WR35 over the last five games. The Raiders could struggle to average over 200 yards passing moving forward, given their run-heavy nature and QB struggles. Adams should be able to snap out of this cold streak, but the days of ranking as a WR1 are over until we see dramatic changes in this offense. Adams is a high-end WR2.
   
• DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has WR2 and WR20 finishes over the last two games, with Will Levis starting. In their second game together, the rookie targeted his veteran WR a healthy 10 times. Hopkins isn’t dust — he ranks 12th in target share (28%) on the season, and Levis gives him upside that we haven’t seen with Tannehill. Hopkins UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory if Levis remains the starter.
   
• DeVonta Smith: Dallas Goedert suffered a fracture in his forearm and will miss time. Over the last two years, when Goedert isn’t on the field, Smith boasts a 30% target share — significantly higher than his 23% with Goedert. Smith UPGRADES to high-end WR2 territory while Goedert is sidelined.
   
• Demario Douglas: Douglas led the WR group for the second consecutive game (83%) and tied for the team lead in targets (17%). He has scored two top-30 finishes in his last three games. Douglas UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 territory.
   
• Gabe Davis: In Week 8, the Bills utilized Davis differently with quick-hitting throws (6.9 aDOT), providing some hope for fantasy managers. Coming off of a season-high target share (31%), the old Davis joined the group chat with just a 9% share and a 22.3 aDOT. Davis is who we thought he was — just a boom-bust WR4.
   
• George Pickens: Pickens has 13% and 18% target shares in the last two games, with Diontae Johnson hogging looks. Pickens showed us he can earn targets and deliver big plays, but he has a long-standing trend of struggling with Diontae on the field. Over the last two years, Pickens has a 16% target share with Johnson on the field and a 24% without. The fact that Kenny Pickett looks like a 200-yard per-game passer at this point also caps things. Pickens DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory.
   
• Isaiah McKenzie: Josh Downs reinjured his knee in Week 9 and could miss time. McKenzie registered a 61% route participation and saw three targets. McKenzie is a low-end WR5 if Downs is out.
   
• Khalil Shakir: The average route participation for the second-year WR is 73% in two games without Dawson Knox. Shakir’s target earning hasn’t improved, though — only 15% during the two-game stretch. There is a chance Shakir can make noise in deeper leagues, but he will need to show us something he hasn’t yet as a target earner. Shakir has back-to-back top-24 fantasy finishes but still profiles as WR5 material.
   
• Noah Brown: Brown erupted for 27 fantasy points, snagging all six of his targets for 153 yards and a TD. The 27-year-old WR has never been a high-end target earner, and he only accounted for 15% against the Bucs. He ran pure in a game where his QB threw for almost 500 yards, but he isn’t a high-priority waiver-wire option. Brown is WR6 material.
   
• Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham has two top-36 finishes in the last three weeks, including a season-high 17 points in Week 9. The veteran may be finding his groove with Lamar Jackson based on his 27% TPRR average over the last four outings. Still, we need the Ravens to expand his role — his route participation over that stretch is only 60%. Beckham could push his way up the ranks with more playing time, but for now, he remains a WR5.
   
• Tee Higgins: Higgins delivered a 19-point performance, leading the team with a 23% target share in Week 9. The talented young WR now has a 23% average in healthy games and looks poised to push for high-end WR2 status with Joe Burrow looking healthy. Higgins UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
   
• Zay Flowers: Flowers had his worst performance of the season, scoring only two fantasy points. He played all the passing downs until the fourth quarter was in a blowout state, but Beckham is now challenging for targets. Over the first three quarters, OBJ saw a 25% target share versus 4% for Flowers. Beckham has a 27% TPRR over the last four games, and the new target competition is bad news for the rookie. Based on the last 12 years of data, Flowers DOWNGRADES to low-end WR3 status.

TE Utilization Bytes:

• Cade Otton: Otton has elite route participation (86%), but he rarely gets targeted (15%), with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin bogarting looks. However, against the Texans, Otton saw a season-high 32% target share and scored a whopping 25 points thanks to his two TDs. Otton UPGRADES to mid-range TE2 status, but don’t chase his spike performance.
   
• Cole Kmet: The 24-year-old TE averages 12.1 points per game — on pace to smash his previous high of 8.7. He has been Tyson Bagent’s favorite option, with a 28% target share over the last two contests. Of course, he has multiple 20%-plus outings with Justin Fields at the helm as well. Kmet UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status based on historical comps since 2011.
   
• Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid upgraded to mid-range TE1 status last week in the Utilization Report, and he backed that up in a big way. The rookie registered a season-high 11 targets (32%) and delivered 18 fantasy points. Over the last three games, he has reached 16 or more. Kincaid looks like the No. 2 Buffalo has been waiting for and is a must-start option until Knox returns.
   
• Dalton Schultz: Schultz was the TE1 in Week 9 with 29 points and is now the TE8 on the season. His historical comps point to a low-end TE1 profile, but the newfound upside in the Texans' passing attack could push him higher. Schultz is a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside.
   
• Jonnu Smith: Smith is now the TE14 on the season with 9.8 fantasy points per game. His 21-point outburst in Week 9 was his top outing of the season, but his underlying utilization remained unchanged. Based on the last 12 years of data, his comp group averaged 9.1 points and finished as the TE16. Smith isn’t going away in Atlanta, but don’t chase this spike performance. Smith is a high-end TE2 who will give you TE1 performances when he scores.
   
• Taysom Hill: Hill remained integrated into all three phases of the offense and scored 20.6 fantasy points. He finished with 11 carries for 52 yards, four receptions for 13 yards and a TD on five targets. Hill also had one passing attempt for three yards and a TD. Hill UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status.
   
• Trey McBride: Week 9 was a forgettable performance for the entire Arizona offense, with Clayton Tune getting sacrificed to the rabid Dawg Pound in Cleveland. McBride was no exception, with only five fantasy points. However, he posted another monster target share (28%), and things could look much better in Week 10 if we get Kyler Murray back. McBride remains a low-end TE1 with upside and is a priority pickup if someone cuts him in your league.