The Utilization Report. Three Situations To Monitor in Week 1.
We have tracked and analyzed every move NFL teams have made this offseason. Teams have signaled their intentions via free agency to the draft and provided clues on how things have progressed in training camp and preseason games.
Based on all those data points, we have a decent idea of how quite a few teams will look on Week 1 (of course, there will be surprises), but there are still a handful of quality offenses with depth charts shrouded by ambiguity.
As we head into the biggest reveal week of the NFL season, here are the top situations where we hope to gain clarity.
1. Will a WR emerge as a clear-cut starter in Kansas City?
Kansas City was the most prolific passing attack in the NFL in 2022, but Travis Kelce was the only receiving option worthy of a guaranteed spot in your starting lineup.
JuJu Smith-Schuster finished as the 32nd WR in points per game (11.8) but was never able to carve out a large enough role to push higher. Smith-Schuster only topped an 80% route participation in half of the Chiefs’ games.
The lack of high-end route participation was a challenge across the board:
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 71%
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 76%
- Justin Watson: 38%
- Skyy Moore: 25%
- Kadarius Toney: 22%
We saw much of the same in four drives with Patrick Mahomes this preseason.
This utilization also mirrors recent comments from General Manager Brett Veach.
All eyes will be on Moore this Thursday night against the Lions. The second-year WR steamed up draft boards this summer after failing to carve out a role on a bad receiving corps last season.
A 60% route participation would constitute a significant jump compared to his rookie season but would hardly be enough to make him a viable weekly starter in fantasy football.
If any of Toney, Rice, James or Ross register a healthy route participation in Week 1, their valuation will skyrocket heading into Week 2.
2. How will the Lions split the RB workload?
We haven’t seen Detroit’s starting offense this preseason, leaving us to guess how they might divide snaps between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Gibbs is an electric playmaker with high-end passing-down chops, making him an excellent candidate to handle passing-downs.
Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey were Gibbs’ closest two comps in the RB Super Model.
While some are speculating this could mean more work for Gibbs at WR, that wouldn’t open up much more fantasy upside. However, if the cryptic message we are missing in this tweet is Gibbs in a more prominent rushing role, including totes inside the 5-yard line, that scenario would have astronomical fantasy implications.
I only have Gibbs projected for 39% of the rushing attempts with a 50% route participation. In that role, he lands at 14.2 fantasy points per game.
There is a chance Gibbs is the lead back, with Montgomery spelling him. If we bump Gibbs to 50% of the rushing attempts and 60% route participation, he catapults to 17.3 points per game.
If Gibbs edges out Montgomery in utilization against the Chiefs on Thursday night, he will enter the RB1 conversation in Week 2.
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3. How confident are the Jets in Breece Hall?
The Jets indicated that Hall won’t be on a snap count in Week 1, but the team will play it smart.
Early reports indicated Dalvin Cook would lead the way out of the gate, with Hall eventually challenging for the lead role. However, we thought the same thing about Denver and Javonte Williams split work evenly with Samaje Perine in Week 2 of the preseason.
We could see something similar with the Jets, which could put Hall on track to take over the lead role much sooner in the season.
The second-year back is one of the most talented in the NFL and could end up looking like a bargain for those who acquired him in Rounds 4 and 5 of fantasy drafts this summer.