Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. De’Von Achane has the talent, but will the workload be there?

In Achane’s first true NFL action, he delivered an astounding 51 fantasy points on 233 total yards and four TDs. While the 188-pound third-round NFL draft pick will almost certainly remain in a rotation without multiple injuries to teammates, his upside in this offense is undeniable.

The Dolphins lead the NFL with a whopping 47% of their drives ending with a TD. That is 16 percentage points ahead of the second-place Chargers. On the surface, this sort of dominance doesn’t seem sustainable, but Miami isn’t your typical offense. Their team speed and scheme continuously put opposing defenses in no-win situations.

Achane is right at home in this environment. He delivered a 75th-percentile explosive rush rate, with 20% of his carries going for 10 yards or more at Texas A&M. The Shanahan coaching tree has had a longtime infatuation with this RB archetype (i.e., Clinton Portis, Tatum Bell, Elijah Mitchell) that can hit the long ball on any play.

How Mike McDaniel will ultimately divide up this backfield moving forward is uncertain, but the first data point was solid. Achane led the team in rushing attempts.

The Dolphins rested many starters in the fourth quarter when Chris Brooks saw most of his action. Over the first three quarters, Achane played 46% of snaps and led the team with 52% of rushing attempts. Mostert was the primary option in the passing game, but Achane was heavily integrated into the game plan with a 36% targets per route run (TPRR).

Salvon Ahmed was inactive for Week 3, and while it’s true that might have opened the door for Achane, the rookie garnered a far more significant workload than Ahmed did in his two chances as the No. 2. Ahmed’s best game was 16% of the rushing attempts.

Of course, the Dolphins backfield isn’t even at full strength right now. Jeff Wilson is eligible to return from the PUP in Week 5. 

These factors could create doubt in the minds of some of your league mates. However, the same thing played out in 2017 with Alvin Kamara. Many couldn’t see past Kamara playing behind Mark Ingram (Mostert) and Adrian Peterson (Ahmed/Wilson) remaining in the picture early in the season.

What many fantasy managers didn’t envision was talent winning out and Kamara finishing as the RB3 overall without reaching 30% of the team’s rushing attempts. The Saints released Peterson in Week 4 that season and consolidated their attack down to two backs. While the Dolphins won’t likely release Wilson, his role could be minimal.

Achane is available in 59% of Yahoo! leagues, so many of you will be forced to make a decision on how to approach this situation. For that, we need to consider the range of outcomes.

Realistic Floor: Three-way backfield

  • 30% rushing attempts
  • 25% route participation
  • 8 to 10 fantasy points per game (PPG) with significant spike games
  • Low-end to mid-range RB3

Realistic Median: Two-way backfield

  • 45% rushing attempts
  • 35% route participation
  • 11 to 13 PPG with significant spike weeks
  • High-end RB3 to low-end RB2

Realistic Ceiling: Lead in a two-way backfield

  • 55% rushing attempts
  • 50% route participation
  • 14 to 16 PPG with eruption weeks
  • Mid-range RB2 to low-end RB1

From an expected workload standpoint, Achane doesn’t grade out as well as Jerome Ford from last week, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t approach the waiver wire aggressively.

Two weeks ago, we didn’t expect Kyren Williams to find himself as the No. 1 in L.A. suddenly, but here we are. Things can change quickly, and we want to buy into players with big-play ability on high-scoring offenses.

FAAB Recommendation: 65%+

Outlook: Achane is a low-end RB2 with RB1 upside that can dramatically swing matchups in your favor when he hits.

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2. Tank Dell is the second-best rookie WR in the NFL.

In a class loaded with first-round NFL draft picks like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston, it has been the non-first-rounders to make fantasy headlines through three weeks. Dell’s 17 PPG ranks second behind only Puka Nacua (26).

Dell's role has improved since Noah Brown went on IR after Week 1. The third-round NFL draft pick trailed only Robert Woods in route participation in the last two contests and led the team in targets in both weeks.

If we isolate two games where Dell was in a full-time role, he averages a mouthwatering 22.5 points.

Dell was a dominating target earner in college, reaching a 32% target share or better in his last three seasons. While transitioning from an offense like the Houston Cougars to the NFL isn’t always easy, Dell demonstrated he wasn’t a gimmick player in college. Only 15% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage and only 11% came off of motion.

The NFL is evolving as smaller skill position players like Achane, Dell and Tutu Atwell are blowing up fantasy box scores. So, don’t be discouraged by Dell’s size (5-foot-8 and 165 pounds) when considering his prospects for the rest of 2023. 

The Texans have posted a positive dropback over expectation (DBOE) in the first three contests. Houston is letting C.J. Stroud play, and the rookie ranks fifth in passing yards per game with 302.

Robert Woods and Nico Collins will continue to challenge for targets, but Dell looks like one of the top two options on the team. Dell ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per route run (2.61), and Collins ranks 20th (2.52) — the Texans have the makings of an excellent young WR duo.

When you add it all up, we have a talented young player in a strong role in a fruitful offensive environment. That makes him a HIGH PRIORITY in this week’s waiver wire run.

Recommended FAAB: 50%+

Outlook: Dell is locked into the upside WR3 conversation and will push into the WR2 range with another strong performance in Week 4.

3. Jerome Ford needs more work to sustain his Top 12 standing.

Ford was the waiver wire darling of Week 2 and came through 19 fantasy points while leading the team with a 55% snap share on Sunday against the Titans. However, the Browns split their rushing attempts across three backs and involved Elijah Moore and Deshaun Watson.

This split wasn’t the result of a big lead late in the game. Ford handled 27% of the attempts and registered a 50% route participation in the first half. It is only one data point, so we don’t want to panic, but Ford might be a SELL HIGH candidate.

So far, over half of his production has come through his five receptions for 58 yards and two TDs. Unfortunately, he wasn’t a high-end target earner in college, and his 14% TPRR is well below historical RB3 thresholds. He is a strong candidate for regression as a receiver.

On the ground, Ford ranks fourth in yards after contact (4.12) and 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt (22%), but only 4.9% of his attempts have gone for 10-plus yards, which ranks 31 out of 41 backs with at least 20 totes. He was the primary short-down-and-distance (SDD) option in Week 3, so he might not need the big plays to score, but he is walking a fine line.

Outlook: Ford’s strengths are in the run game, where he needs more volume to sustain his current RB1 pace — he is due for regression in the passing attack. He is a mid-range RB2.

4. Adam Thielen isn’t done yet.

The 33-year-old WR delivered his two lowest TPRR marks of his career over the last two seasons, with 21% and 20%. However, this preseason he dominated targets in snaps, with the starters leaving the door open for a hot start.

Battling through an ankle injury in Week 1, the veteran could not get anything going. But over the last two games, he scored 18 and 32 points. His 29% and 25% target shares led the Panthers, and he rarely leaves the field on passing downs.

Playing from the slot on 75% of his routes has put the wind back into Thielen’s sails. Historically, we have seen aging target earners revive their careers playing inside and winning mismatches against linebackers and safeties in zone coverage. Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Anquan Boldin all delivered WR1 or WR2 finishes at 33 and older.

The Panthers’ plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) have been in plus territory every week and their DBOE is at +7% and +14% over the last two contests. Despite the challenges Bryce Young’s return to the lineup (Andy Dalton started Week 3) might cause, this isn’t a terrible environment for racking up catches and PPR points.

Thielen is available in 53% of Yahoo! leagues. With the QB questions and more injury risk due to age, he comes in under Dell in the recommended FAAB. However, there are runouts where a healthy Thielen outperforms Dell.

FAAB Recommendation: 20 to 30%

Outlook: Thielen UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and moves into the WR2 conversation if Young can improve.

5. Sam LaPorta is a top-six TE the rest of the way.

The rookie TE was a high-end target earner in college, and that is translating to the NFL. Without solid depth chart options to overcome on the Lions' offense, LaPorta is the eighth-ranked TE in route participation (79%) and is fourth in TPRR (26%).

Since 2011, we have seen 28 instances where a TE topped 75% route participation and a 22% TPRR. They all finished inside the top 12 and the average finish was the TE4.

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) makes a catch for a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023.

The second-round NFL draft pick is in rare air, leading the NFL with a YPRR of 2.24. When we triangulate all of these data points, we get some amazing comps:

  • Travis Kelce
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Jimmy Graham
  • George Kittle
  • Mark Andrews
  • Zach Ertz
  • Greg Olsen
  • Delanie Walker

We are still dealing with a small sample, but early signs indicate LaPorta is an absolute stud. Only T.J. Hockenson has more targets through three games, and the rookie is off to a historic start.

If you have him in dynasty, congratulations. If you don’t, you should consider making a trade offer because more big games are likely coming soon.

Outlook: LaPorta is locked into the top six TEs and is worthy of a BUY HIGH recommendation.

6. Breece Hall’s role is growing.

The Jets offense isn’t an ideal habitat for cultivating fantasy points. Let’s just get that part out of the way. However, Hall flashed ELITE upside as a rookie, and if the team wants to get things back on track, it likely comes through the ground game and playing defense.

Hall’s share of the snaps, rushing attempts and route participation have increased every week.

Hall also saw an increase in short-down-and-distance (SDD) work, garnering 50% of the opportunities, but Michael Carter continues to dominate the obvious passing situations (LDD and 2MIN).

Not having the passing-down role in an offense that could trail often isn’t ideal, but we could see Hall’s utilization expand in that department the same way it has in the run game. Now isn’t a bad time to consider BUYING LOW on Hall.

Outlook: Hall is a boom-bust RB3, but if this trend continues, he will push for RB2 status and possibly more in the coming weeks.

7. Opportunity knocks for Quentin Johnston.

Mike Williams is out for the season with an ACL injury, and the Chargers invested a first-round pick in Johnston this past April in the NFL Draft. Those two events should open the door for a dramatic increase in playing time. However, Joshua Palmer has worked ahead of Johnston all season, and after the Williams injury, he played 100% of passing downs while the rookie was limited to 25%.

Still, even if Johnston must work behind Palmer early on, there is much room for additional playing time. The Chargers' primary personnel package is three-WR sets, with 62% of snaps coming from 11 personnel.

Whether Johnston can force his way into the No. 2 role or encourage the Chargers to increase their utilization of three-WR sets is up to him. He must perform.

While he hasn’t been able to lock down a steady role yet, his 21% TPRR is third on the team behind Allen and Williams. Palmer was not a high-end target earner in college and hasn’t flashed over his first two seasons. Last year, he stepped in for Allen and Williams for significant periods but could only finish the season with a 15% TPRR and a 1.20 YPRR.

The veteran will likely get the nod in playing time early, but with a few big plays, Johnston could quickly move up the depth chart. If and when that happens, Johnston will move quickly into WR2 with upside territory thanks to the pass-happy nature of the Chargers offense.

Johnston is available in 68% of Yahoo! leagues and Palmer in 96%.

Johnston FAAB Recommendation: 15 to 25%

Palmer FAAB Recommendation: 5 to 10%

Outlook: Johnston is a boom-bust WR4 in the short term but has WR2 upside if he can overtake the veteran in two-WR sets.

8. Josh Downs had his best game of the season.

Downs delivered 14 fantasy points on the back of a 27% target share in Week 3 against the Ravens. The Colts have opted to utilize more three-WR sets this season under Shane Steichen, a departure from their old ways under Frank Reich, where heavy TE groupings were the norm.

Indianapolis ranks first in the NFL in plays per minute at 2.49. No team leaves more time on the play clock in neutral situations than the Colts. This is an offense that wants to play fast.

This unique combination of events allows Downs to run enough routes to find fantasy relevance. Alec Pierce hasn’t shown any target-earning prowess, and the team needs a No. 2 behind Michael Pittman to step up.

Downs is available in 98% of Yahoo! leagues.

FAAB Recommendation: 3 to 5%

Outlook: Downs is a WR5 that offers WR3 upside if he can click with Anthony Richardson like he did with Gardner Minshew in Week 3.

9. The Broncos need to get Marvin Mims on the field

Mims only saw the field on 28% of the Broncos passing plays in Week 3 against the Dolphins. However, he finished first in air yards (33%) and delivered a 15% target share, thanks to a whopping 45% TPRR.

For the season, Mims ranks first on the team in TPRR (33%) and PFF receiving grade (83.2) but continues to play behind Brandon Johnson. Johnson’s 13% TPRR and 60.4 grade are by far the worst on the team.

It is hard to say what is going on with Mims’ usage, but when he is on the field, he is doing what he did at the University of Oklahoma — pushing the vertical boundary and delivering big plays. Ultimately, we don’t know if Sean Payton will make a change, but the second-round NFL Draft pick has the talent to capitalize quickly if/when the move happens.

Mims is available in 73% of Yahoo! leagues.

FAAB Recommendation: 3 to 5%

Outlook: Mims is an upside stash WR6 for now but could quickly scale into a WR3-worthy performer with more routes.

Utilization Bytes:

QB

  • Justin Fields: It was another bad fantasy outing for Fields with only 12 points, but his designed run attempts are on the rise: 10%, 20% and 32%. He now ranks third on the season (21%) and is second in scramble rate (11%). History tells us that rushing QBs — even terrible passers — are almost always top-12 fantasy finishers. Fields remains a great BUY-LOW candidate.

RB

  • Roschon Johnson: Johnson saw a season-high in snaps (45%) and rushing attempts (36%) in Week 3. Khalil Herbert still led the way with a 55% snap share, but Johnson is pushing for more playing time. Johnson is an upside RB4.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs handled 59% of the snaps and 57% of the designed rushing attempts with David Montgomery out. He was in a route on 50% of the team’s passing plays but was rarely targeted (6%). Gibbs is a mid-range RB2 with upside if Montgomery is out again in Week 4.
  • A.J. Dillon: Dillon hasn’t been able to get anything going with Aaron Jones out of the lineup. He ranks 30th of 41 RBs in average yards after contact, 39th in explosive rush rate and 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt. That is not good. Dillon DOWNGRADES to low-end RB4 status when Jones returns and is in danger of losing work.
  • Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon came through with 18 fantasy points thanks to two receiving TDs in Week 3. However, his role was unchanged. McKinnon remains an RB4 with spike-week upside.
  • Joshua Kelley: Kelley laid an egg in a great matchup against the Vikings despite playing 75% of the snaps and handling 79% of the rushing attempts. He ranks in the bottom 10 in average yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt. Kelley DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 status in games where Ekeler is out.
  • Kendre Miller: The rookie led the team in rushing attempts (41%) and should push for the No. 2 role behind Alvin Kamara until Jamaal Williams returns from IR. Miller UPGRADES to high-end RB4 status while Williams is out.
  • Matt Breida: Breida handled 40% of the rushing attempts with Saquon Barkley out and was on the field for a 67% route participation. He is a high-end RB4 until Barkley returns.
  • Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet saw season-highs in snaps (44%), rush attempts (27%) and route participation (42%), and it wasn’t due to the game conditions — it started in the first half. Charbonnet is available in 56% of Yahoo! leagues and is a PRIORITY stash play. He UPGRADES to RB4 with upside status.

WR

  • Marquise Brown: Joshua Dobbs’ drastic improvement in completion percentage (73%) has given the veteran WR new life, averaging 14.4 points per game (26th). He proved he was a high-end target earner last season in games without DeAndre Hopkins, and he is doing it again with a 28% target share (17th) to start 2023. Brown gets his second UPGRADE in as many weeks up to mid-range WR3 status.
  • D.J. Chark: Chark registered a 97% route participation, with Jonathan Mingo knocked out of the game early with a concussion. The veteran WR delivered 19 fantasy points on 11 targets with Andy Dalton under center. Chark moves into WR5 territory and offers WR4 upside if Mingo misses time.
  • Elijah Moore: Moore leads the Browns with a 24% target share but has yet to uncork a big fantasy performance. In Week 3, his 1.2 aDOT was a challenge, but the Browns continue to move him all over the formation, and he is a top-two option in the attack. Moore is a high-end WR4 with WR2 potential if the offense ever clicks.
  • Michael Gallup: Gallup delivered 15 fantasy points on a 19% target share in Week 3. He is battling Brandin Cooks for the No. 2 role in the pecking order. Gallup is a WR6 that could get lucky for you when bye weeks hit, but we shouldn’t read too much into this performance.
  • Skyy Moore: Moore’s route participation hit a season low of 59%, and it was even worse when isolating to plays with Patrick Mahomes still in the game (56%). The second-year WR isn’t playing enough, and his 15% TPRR is not even WR4-worthy. Moore DOWNGRADES to WR6 stash-only territory and can be dropped in most formats.
  • Rashee Rice: The rookie saw a season-high 51% route participation with Richie James out. His 36% TPRR is the best on the team. Rice is my favorite stash play on the Chiefs and can be picked up for nothing right now.
  • Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has 38% and 27% target shares in his two starts, which has fueled 29 and 16-point fantasy outings. In a consolidated passing attack, Meyers is dominating and might be one of the steals of the offseason. Meyers UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.
  • Chris Olave: Olave ranks in the top five in target share (33%) and is eighth in air yards share (40%). It is hard not to dominate fantasy box scores when doing those two things. Jameis Winston will take over until Derek Carr returns from his shoulder injury. Olave is the WR15 heading into Monday night, but his talent profile screams mid-range WR1 upside — BUY HIGH (his value will go higher).
  • Parris Campbell: With the return of Wan’Dale Robinson, Campbell’s route participation plummeted to 39%. Campbell shouldn’t be rostered in any format.
  • George Pickens: Pickens has accounted for 33% and 23% of the targets in two games without Diontae Johnson. He is showing promise in a more diverse role, attacking multiple areas of the field. Pickens is a high-end WR3 with upside until Johnson returns (and he could hold onto a more prominent role).
  • Calvin Austin: The second-year WR has an 88% route participation in two games without Johnson. His 23% TPRR was a season-high in Week 3. Austin is an upside WR5 until Johnson returns.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie first-rounder’s route participation struggles continued in Week 3 (63%). When he is targeted, it is low-value looks near the line of scrimmage (2.6 aDOT). JSN remains a hold in most formats, but DOWNGRADES to WR5 with upside status. He is dropable for Tank Dell.
  • Treylon Burks: The second-year WR continues to work behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Burks is the No. 2 target-earner on the team behind Hopkins, but in a run-first offense with QB challenges, he is in a tough spot. Burks DOWNGRADES to WR5 with upside status.

TE

  • Kyle Pitts: Pitts isn’t battling the playing-time issues that plagued him in 2022. His 91% route participation is elite. Unfortunately, this is still a run-first offense with QB issues. In Week 3, Pitts saw a season-high nine targets, but only five were catchable. Pitts remains a boom-bust TE2.
  • Isaiah Likely: The second-year TE isn’t seeing much playing time. His 23% and 17% route participation marks in two games with Andrews make him dropable formats outside of TE premium leagues. Likely DOWNGRADES to TE stash territory.
  • Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid hasn’t eclipsed 70% route participation since Week 1, and so far, he isn’t earning targets. His 14% TPRR is well below TE1 thresholds. Kincaid DOWNGRADES to low-end TE2 status.
  • Jake Ferguson: Ferguson continues to demonstrate ELITE target-earning ability. He ranks third in TPRR (27%) out of TEs with at least a 40% route participation. He saw a season-high in that department in Week 3. Unfortunately, that was only 62%. Ferguson looks like he has TE1 talent, and if he ever gets the route participation, he could offer top-six upside. He UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status.
  • Juwan Johnson: Johnson’s route participation is trending in the wrong direction (82%, 73% and 66%), and he isn’t earning targets (14% TPRR). Johnson downgrades to low-end TE2 status.
  • Cole Turner: Turner played a season-high 56% of pass plays with Logan Thomas out. Sam Howell loves this guy, and his 33% TPRR is by far the best in the TE room. If he ever finds his way into a full-time role, Turner has TE1 upside.
Utilization Report