The Utilization Report. Everything You Need For Fantasy Football In Week 8.
- 1. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are now a pass-heavy offense?
- 2. Josh Downs UPGRADES to WR3 status and is a MUST ADD.
- 3. Darrell Henderson gets off the couch and steps into a 20-opportunity role.
- 4. Jakobi Meyers is a target-earning MONSTER.
- 5. Emari Demercado regains the lead RB role (for now) in Arizona.
- 6. The Browns could deploy a committee if Jerome Ford misses time.
- 7. Calvin Ridley DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status.
- 8. Jordan Addison looks like the WR we saw in college.
- 9. Can Dalton Kincaid capitalize on more playing time?
- QB Utilization Bytes:
- RB Utilization Bytes:
- WR Utilization Bytes:
- TE Utilization Bytes:
Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).
- Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
- Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
- Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
- Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
- Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
1. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are now a pass-heavy offense?
We heard about Baltimore moving to a pass-friendly offense all offseason under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. They backed up the talk by adding Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft and securing Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency.
But over the first month of the season, the Ravens remained reliant on their ground game despite the lack of rushing playmakers outside of Jackson. The team had a negative DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) in each game, and Jackson averaged only 199 passing yards.
Jackson erupted for 357 yards and three TDs via the air in Week 7 against the Lions, and while efficiency was a significant factor, the team registered its highest DBOE of the season at 12%. That marks the second game in the last three weeks where the Ravens qualified as a pass-heavy offense based on historical comps. Deciphering whether these data points are trends or faulty signals is always challenging, but the transformation of Baltimore’s offense might be occurring.
Implementing a new scheme takes time. The quarterbacks and receivers must all be on the same page, and the Ravens might just now be hitting their stride. Beckham, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman have missed time with injuries, and Flowers is only a rookie.
Oct 22, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) celebrates with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) after socking a \2aq\touchdown against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Jackson has always had QB1 overall upside thanks to his rushing prowess, but if this offense is truly moving to a pass-friendly approach, the chances just dramatically improved. Imagine a world where a QB has a 300-plus yard ceiling as a passer and a 100-plus yard ceiling as a rusher — and games where both occur. That is what we could have in Jackson.
Outlook: Jackson is a high-end QB1 who will challenge for the QB1 overall crown if the Ravens evolve into a pass-first operation.
2. Josh Downs UPGRADES to WR3 status and is a MUST ADD.
We have pumped up Downs for weeks, but he somehow remains available in 74% of fantasy leagues despite delivering, making him our Waiver Wire Add of the Week once again.
The rookie WR has developed into the undisputed No. 2 option in the Colts passing attack and has performed more like a fantasy WR2 over the past five games rather than a free agent. He has four top-30 finishes and two top-18 outings in that span.
Based on historical comps since 2011, Downs comps to Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Jordan Matthews and Sterling Shepard in their rookie seasons. That foursome averaged 12.5 points per game and a WR30 finish in their inaugural campaigns.
We don’t often have opportunities to add ascending talent in known roles at this point in the fantasy season, making Downs a PRIORITY option if he is available in your league.
FAAB Recommendation: 40-50%
Outlook: Downs UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status and offers high-end WR3 upside.
3. Darrell Henderson gets off the couch and steps into a 20-opportunity role.
Just one week removed from watching football on TV, Henderson took over the RB1 role for the Rams with a 58% snap share. He accounted for 60% of attempts and played in high-leverage situations inside the five-yard line and in the two-minute offense.
Freeman kept the backfield interesting, but it seems telling that Henderson — who has a history of bell-cow workloads with McVay — was the clear No. 1. He wasn’t incredibly efficient with 3.4 yards per carry, which could keep this a committee, but this coaching staff has a history of riding one back — just as we saw with Kyren Williams.
Henderson is available in 76% percent of Yahoo! leagues.
FAAB Recommendation: 30-35%
Outlook: Henderson is a low-end RB2 that could quickly move into high-end RB2 territory until Williams returns. If Henderson performs well, he could carve out a role that makes him worthy of a roster spot the rest of the way.
4. Jakobi Meyers is a target-earning MONSTER.
Meyers averages a 28% target share and ranks No. 13 in the NFL in targets despite missing a game. The free-agent addition is dominating despite QB issues and the presence of an alpha in Davante Adams. How in the hell did this man get away from the WR-deprived Patriots?
Meyers is the WR12 on the season with three top 12 performances and he only has one finish outside the top 24.
While it might be tough for Meyers to keep up his WR1 status with Adams around, he looks like a strong WR2 option. Based on utilization data since 2011, Meyers comps averaged 15.1 points per game with a WR18 finish.
Why didn’t someone just tell me to draft Mike Evans, Jakobi Meyers, Adam Thielen and Puka Nacua? Who knew that drafting four top-16 WRs could be so easy?
Outlook: Meyers UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.
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5. Emari Demercado regains the lead RB role (for now) in Arizona.
The Cardinals' coaching staff has given us mixed signals with their backfield utilization since the James Conner injury in Week 5. Demercado was the guy, then he wasn’t, and now he is again.
Demercado is the team’s primary passing-down back, but his usage in the run game has been erratic. The Cardinals have trailed by nine-plus points on at least 25% of plays over the last three games, so the game script doesn’t appear to be the primary driver of the rookie’s opportunities. That makes this a tough situation to decipher.
How many snaps Demercado plays could be tied to how he is performing. In Week 7, that was good enough to keep Keaontay Ingram from taking a snap. In the games where he gets usage, like the Seattle matchup, Demercado offers low-end RB2 value. It is just hard to guarantee more of those games are coming, and Conner could return in Week 10.
To further complicate matters, Arizona faces the Ravens and Browns defenses over the next two games. Once we add all of the factors up, it is hard to get too excited about adding Demercado to our fantasy squads. Unfortunately, some of you are facing dire injury situations, and he is one of the only options on the wire who has a chance to play meaningful snaps immediately.
FAAB Recommendation: 10-15%
Outlook: Demercado UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status until Conner returns. He is an RB5 option with contingency upside upon Conner’s return.
6. The Browns could deploy a committee if Jerome Ford misses time.
Ford went down on the 12th drive of the game with an ankle injury that could force him out of action. Over the final four drives without Ford, Pierre Strong Jr. led the way with 63% of the team’s rushing attempts and a 46% route participation. Kareem Hunt stayed in the same role we have seen over the past two games, handling 33% of the snaps, 25% of attempts and 31% route participation.
We are dealing with a very small sample, so it is hard to say how the Browns will proceed, but at a minimum we are dealing with a two-way backfield. Hunt was questionable all the way up to Sunday, so that might have played a factor in his role not growing after Ford departed from the game.
Hunt has back-to-back top-15 RB finishes with 16 and 15 fantasy points, so any expansion in the role would be notable. He would be an RB2 if he takes over Ford’s snaps.
While Hunt is rostered in 64% of leagues, Strong is available in 99%, and there is at least a chance he will take over Ford’s role. That makes him worth a small FAAB bid in deeper leagues. If we find out that Ford’s injury was of the high-ankle variety, we could bump that up.
FAAB Recommendation for Hunt: 20-25% (30%-plus if Ford has a more serious injury)
FAAB Recommendation for Strong: 3-5% (10-15% if Ford has a more serious injury)
Outlook: Hunt is a borderline RB2 if Ford is out while Strong upgrades to RB4 status.
7. Calvin Ridley DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status.
Coming into the season, Ridley offered the strongest target-earning profile of the Jaguars WRs, and he was Trevor Lawrence’s favorite option in the preseason. Things looked great in Week 1, with a 35% target share and a top-six finish.
Unfortunately, that turned out to be the first hill on a roller coaster of ups and downs. Since then, four out of six games have provided fantasy managers with a frustrating WR48 or lower finish.
Ridley continues to play a full-time role and his 21% target share ranks third on the team behind Christian Kirk (23%) and Evan Engram (22%). There is a chance Ridley is still the best option on this team, but Kirk and Engram often get the better matchups on the inside, and even when Ridley beats tougher coverage, Trevor Lawrence doesn’t feel the need to force things.
Against zone coverage, things spread out evenly among the threesome, but against man coverage, Lawrence hasn’t favored Ridley thus far. Kirk leads the team with a mouthwatering 34% TPRR, and Engram is second with a 28% mark. Ridley comes in a distant third at 19%.
While the NFL plays zone coverage on over 70% of plays, historical trends favor WRs who can produce against man coverage. Watching Ridley, he is still beating man coverage, but with tougher assignments, Lawrence might just be opting for the better matchups.
Regardless of how we are getting here, the big takeaway is that the target competition is here to stay in Jacksonville. While Ridley might even regain the lead in the attack, no one is a strong bet to stray too far away from the pack.
Despite all of their weapons, the Jaguars haven’t evolved into a pass-first team, opting for a pass-balanced approach, ranking ninth in DBOE. That makes it tough to support high-end production from multiple weapons consistently.
Once you connect all of the dots between all of the data points, Ridley profiles more like a WR3 than the WR2 many drafters thought they were getting. Based on data since 2011, WRs in his comp group averaged 12.6 points per game and a WR29 finish.
Outlook: Ridley DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status, and we could continue to see boom-bust performances.
8. Jordan Addison looks like the WR we saw in college.
Addison exploded for 31 fantasy points on Monday Night Football, turning his 10 targets into seven receptions for 123 yards and two TDs. And his night could have even been bigger. He missed time late in the game with cramps, plus Kirk Cousins just missed him on a three-yard TD and he earned a DPI on another potential score.
The rookie delivered a 24% target share despite only participating in 73% of routes (cramps), thanks to his 30% TPRR. He also led the team in air yards for the second week at 38%.
The best part about Addison’s breakout is that we should see more huge games ahead. The Vikings are a pass-first offense (No. 2 in DBOE) with a quality QB, and most importantly, Addison was an absolute target monster in college.
Targets and yards per route run by season in college:
- Freshman: 25%, 2.00
- Sophomore: 28%, 2.94
- Junior: 22%, 2.78
Addison beat all coverage types in college, including press-man, where he had the sixth-best Power Five TPRR at 28%. This is a player that can win versus all coverage types playing inside or outside. His closest comp for me in our Fantasy Life Super Model was Diontae Johnson.
He graded out at the 85th percentile in the model, which has been historically good for WRs looking at their production over their first three seasons. Over half of them (56%) went on to deliver a top-24 finish, and 25% had a top-12 campaign.
After a big win over the 49ers and a Lions loss, the Vikings are only two games back in the division, which should quiet the talks about Justin Jefferson shutting down. Eventually, we should see Jefferson back in the lineup, which will create new target competition for Addison.
Fortunately for Addison, he just needs to play well enough to bump K.J. Osborn down the pecking order when Jefferson returns. I like the rookie’s chances, given Osborn’s lowly 13% TPRR.
Outlook: Addison UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status while Jefferson is out and is a low-end WR3 with upside when Jefferson returns.
9. Can Dalton Kincaid capitalize on more playing time?
Kincaid delivered a season-high 16 points on his way to a top-six finish on National TE’s Day. His role (63% route participation) didn’t change as he continued to split time with Dawson Knox, but that could change over the next few weeks. Knox is set to have wrist surgery, and while we don’t have details, it could be one to four games.
Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) runs against New England Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson (29) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Kincaid has a 21% target share this season when Knox isn’t on the field. In a Bills offense without a clear No. 2 behind Stefon Diggs and ranks No. 4 in DBOE, Kincaid is going to have every opportunity to shine. The rookie TE averages 27 routes per game, a number that could push closer to 40 without Knox.
At 40 routes, the rookie would become a six to seven targets per-game player, assuming no improvement as a target earner. That would make him a low-end TE1 option. If he takes a step forward earning more targets – as we have seen without Knox on the field – he could have a mid-range TE1 upside until Knox returns.
Kincaid is available in 57% of leagues and is a PRIORITY waiver add if you are hurting at TE.
FAAB Recommendation: 15-25%
Outlook: Kincaid is a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside until Knox returns to the lineup.
QB Utilization Bytes:
- Josh Allen: Allen hasn’t been very involved as a runner in 2023 but registered season-highs in designed rush attempts (15%) and scrambles (9%) in Week 7. Damien Harris (IR) was out, which might be a contributing factor. Allen is the QB1 overall through seven games, but his weekly ceiling and upside improve when more involved on the ground. Allen remains a top-three QB.
- Kyler Murray: The Cardinals opened the 21-day practice window on Murray last week, and the latest timelines suggest a potential return to the lineup in Week 9 or 10. Joshua Dobbs has played admirably, but the completion percentages have dipped over the last three games (47%, 51% and 58%), impacting the receiving corps. When Murray returns, he should provide a boost to the passing game, but his fantasy allure ties primarily to his dual-threat nature and it could take some time before we see him running much. Murray is a mid-range QB2 but offers QB1 *IF* he gets to 75-80% as a rusher, which could come by the fantasy playoffs. He is available in over half of leagues and is worth a 5-10% FAAB bid.
RB Utilization Bytes:
- Aaron Jones: Despite coming off of the bye, Jones was limited in practice before the Week 7 matchup and carried a questionable tag up to game time. His role was once again limited, playing only 34% of the snaps. Jones remains the best RB in Green Bay, we just need him to get healthy. He should offer mid-range RB2 production with RB1 spike weeks once healthy, making him a BUY-LOW option.
- Alvin Kamara: The veteran RB has an eye-popping 24% target share since his return, which makes him a high-end fantasy weapon. Kamara averages 21 points per game and has finishes of RB9, RB7, RB9 and RB3. Jamaal Williams returned in Week 7 but didn’t have much of a role in a trailing game script. Most importantly, Kamara handled 82% of the short-down-and-distance (SDD) snaps and took 75% of the rushing attempts inside the five. Kamara UPGRADES to low-end RB1 status.
- Bijan Robinson: Robinson only played 16% of the snaps, reportedly due to not feeling well. While this frustrated Robinson managers, who received no warning, it shouldn’t be a long-term issue. Robinson remains a low-end RB1.
- Brian Robinson Jr.: Robinson suddenly found himself in a three-way committee in Week 7, leading to his lowest rushing attempt share (44%) of the season. Rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. saw a season-high seven carries and could see more work moving forward. Robinson is a low-end RB2 but could soon fall into RB3 territory if we get a similar data point in Week 8.
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.: The rookie RB saw a season-high seven rushing attempts on 39% of the Commanders’ carries. He isn’t a viable fantasy option, but he could be carving out a larger role and offers contingent upside if something happens to Robinson. Rodriguez is an RB6 stash play in deep leagues.
- D’Onta Foreman: Foreman broke out with a 33-point performance thanks to 120 total yards and three TDs against the Raiders. He registered 16 rushing attempts and four targets, similar to his Week 6 numbers of 15 and one. His role didn’t change, but the matchup was more favorable. Roschon Johnson has one more step to clear in the concussion protocol and could return in Week 8, but Foreman has played well enough to keep this a two-way backfield while Khalil Herbert is on IR. The Bears have shown us they prefer utilizing two guys — even giving Darrynton Evans 14 carries. Foreman will be a mid-range RB3 if Johnson misses Week 8. He falls to high-end RB4 territory when the rookie returns.
- Gus Edwards: Edwards tallied 64 yards and a TD on the ground, plus one catch for 80 yards on his way to a 21-point outburst in Week 7. The veteran back averages 15 opportunities (14 attempts and one target) over the last four games, which is decent, but he is below 50% of the carries inside the five-yard line. Historically, that has been a challenge for RBs without a role in the passing game; his comp group's average finish since 2011 is RB36, and Jordan Howard’s RB27 finish in 2019 was the high. The Ravens offense isn’t a bad place to put down a bet, BUT Edwards will need more work or lucky long receptions to come his way to become fantasy-relevant. Edwards is a low-end RB3 with SELL-HIGH written all over him.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: We now have two data points in games without David Montgomery, and Gibbs has averaged 14 attempts and 5.5 targets. Montgomery will return soon and likely take over the lead role, but seeing the Lions’ willingness to feed Gibbs is encouraging. His 28-point romp in Week 7 serves as a reminder of why dynasty managers spent a top-three pick. Gibbs is an RB3 with upside when Montgomery is active but is a low-end RB1 anytime Montgomery is out moving forward.
- James Cook: Latavius Murray continued to pick up most of the work left behind from Harris, but Cook saw his highest share of rushing attempts since Week 1 (65%) and delivered a 14% target share on his way to 19 fantasy points. Despite Cook’s 46 yards and a TD via the air, Murray steals most of the long-down-distance (LDD) work and is trending up in the two-minute offense. Cook hasn’t been the passing game revelation we hoped. His 14% TPRR is below historical RB marks. Since 2011, the average finish for backs with Cook’s profile is RB24 with 12.1 points per game — in line with his 12.7 points per game. Cook was trending toward low-end RB2 status, but the small spike in utilization with Harris out keeps him in mid-range RB2 territory.
- Javonte Williams: Williams collected a season-highs in rushing attempts (15) and routes (13) on his way to his best fantasy performance with 13 points. It was a great matchup against the Packers' run defense, but Williams made the most of it, averaging a season-high 5.5 yards per attempt. The second-year back might be returning to form, but the emergence of Jahleel McLaughlin — who is playing well — has this backfield bogged down in a nasty three-way committee. However, it is important to remember how quickly Breece Hall pushed aside Dalvin Cook, which could be Samaje Perine in this equation. We must constantly remind ourselves that the NFL season is chaos, and we know nothing. Williams UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status thanks to his talent profile, but he needs a break in the utilization department to enter the RB2 conversation.
- Jeff Wilson: Wilson only played 15% of snaps and didn’t have a rushing attempt in his first game back. However, the game got out of hand quickly, and the Dolphins let Salvon Ahmed handle fourth-quarter duties in a blowout loss. Wilson should see more work next week, but it is hard to consider him in fantasy lineups until he gets more work. Wilson remains an upside RB4 until De’Von Achane returns.
- Jonathan Taylor: Taylor saw his first start of the season, and his playing time continued to trend in the right direction. He has snap shares of 16%, 43% and 49%, which has led to seven, 14 and 22 opportunities (attempts plus targets). In an unexpected development, Taylor has a 27% TPRR as the team prioritizes him in the passing attack. His route participation (48%) isn’t in the Bijan Robinson range, but that is the best comp for Taylor’s new role. Zack Moss continues to play too much to upgrade Taylor to RB1 status, but we could soon be there. Taylor UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson has 20% and 21% target shares in the last two games, which have helped fantasy managers get back on track with RB7 and RB14 performances. The third-year RB is losing touches on the ground to Ezekiel Elliott in recent weeks, but we will take it if the Patriots keep Stevenson engaged as a receiver. Backs with a similar utilization profile have averaged 15.8 points with an RB11 finish since 2011. Stevenson UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
- Royce Freeman: Freeman kept things competitive in the Rams backfield but already took a backseat to the recently-signed Henderson, who has a history with McVay. Freeman is worth a small FAAB as a high-end RB4 until Williams returns.
- Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier split the backfield work with Cordarrelle Patterson, with Robinson feeling ill. The second-year back handled 58% of the rushing attempts and garnered 29% route participation and a 14% target share. That tied a season-high for the most opportunities for a Falcons’ back with 24 opportunities (21 attempts and three targets). Unfortunately, efficiency has been a challenge for Allgeier this season, and that continued — he could only deliver 14 fantasy points on that big volume. Allgeier is a mid-range RB4 that offers mid-range RB2 upside in games without Robinson.
WR Utilization Bytes:
- Christian Watson: Watson can’t catch a break in 2023 after suffering a knee injury that could force him to miss time. While some will call him the next Gabe Davis, citing raw targets, they have no clue what they are talking about because their methods don’t account for the team environment. On a per-route basis, Watson has a 20% TPRR this season, six percentage points above Davis. If your local Watson manager is panicking, kick the tires on a BUY-LOW offer, assuming Watson doesn’t have a long-term injury.
- Courtland Sutton: Sutton plays in a slow, balanced offense that makes it tough to register big fantasy production. However, he makes the best of it with five top-30 finishes over the first seven games. He has a 25% target share or higher in four contests and leads the team with a 93% route participation. Sutton’s closest historical comps are mid-range WR4s, but he is outperforming that with five top-30 finishes. Sutton UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory.
- Davante Adams: Adams only has one top-12 finish on the season but is due for another big game. He averages 10.1 targets per game. Since 2011, only three WRs with his profile have failed to finish in the top 12, and his comp group averaged 18.6 points per game. Adams is a mid-range WR1 and a great BUY-LOW candidate if your local manager is worried.
- Demario Douglas: The 2023 Round 6 NFL Draft pick has been pushing for more playing time since Week 3, and in Week 7, he registered a season-high 76% route participation. His 25% TPRR ranks first on the Patriots, and the team desperately needs targets beyond Kendrick Bourne. Douglas could be a top-two option in New England’s passing attack over the second half of the season. Douglas UPGRADES to WR6 STASH status but could move quickly up the ranks — you can probably get him for a minimum bid on waivers.
- Diontae Johnson: Johnson returned from IR and delivered 13 fantasy points on an 86% route participation and 26% target share. George Pickens continued to do his thing, with a 35% target share. We should see a condensed passing tree with Pat Freiermuth on IR. Johnson is a high-end WR3.
- Drake London: London looks like a dominant target-earning WR after posting a 32% target share against the Buccaneers. He has now reached a 24% target share or higher in five of seven games. If the man ever gets a QB in a pass-friendly offense, he will erupt, dynasty managers. He would be a top-12 option playing with a Kirk Cousins-caliber QB. London UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 status.
- Gabe Davis: Davis has two fantasy duds with WR55 and WR65 finishes in the last two games. This is what a low-end target earner in a good offense looks like when things go wrong. His 14% TPRR is WR6 material, and his 4.7 targets per game aren’t enough to sustain fantasy consistency — he is completely dependent on big plays and TDs. The Davis comp group since 2011 isn’t pretty. The average finish is WR46 with 10.3 points per contest. Davis DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status.
- Jameson Williams: With Marvin Jones out, Williams saw an uptick in route participation (45%) and registered a 23% TPRR. He has a healthy 24% TPRR on the season but needs more playing time. On the less encouraging front, Williams’ Round 1 NFL Draft capital wasn’t enough to keep him out of a timeshare with Round 7 pick Antoine Green. Williams remains a UPSIDE WR6 stash play, but this is the sort of game where we expected more playing time — it is a red flag.
- Jalin Hyatt: A week after making it into the Utilization Report, Hyatt delivered a season-high 10 fantasy points, and he just missed on another TD catch. The rookie had a 67% route participation and a 19% target share in Week 7. Hyatt UPGRADES to boom-bust WR5 territory and could continue to climb — he is available in 95% of leagues.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: With D.K. Metcalf out, JSN seized his opportunity, delivering 16 fantasy points on a team-leading 30% target share. Since the bye week, the Seahawks are rotating three WRs, and JSN has eclipsed 80% of the routes each game. He is also garnering looks further downfield with season-high aDOTs (7.4 and 10.3). Smith-Njigba UPGRADES to a mid-range WR4 with UPSIDE.
- Joshua Palmer: Palmer has averaged 7.3 targets per game since Mike Williams went down in Week 3. He has target shares of 35%, 21% and 25%. Despite never flashing high-end target earning ability in college or early in his career, Palmer might be one of the exceptions to the rule. Thanks to the pass-heavy nature of the offense and the lack of a challenger in rookie Quentin Johnston this is a great situation. Since 2011, Palmer’s historical comps averaged a WR29 finish and 13.1 points per game. Palmer UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status and he could climb into the high-end WR3 range.
- Kendrick Bourne: Bourne shines when JuJu Smith-Schuster isn’t in the lineup. He has WR5, WR47, WR9 and WR9 finishes when Smith-Schuster has a 50% route participation or less. Bourne now has a 21% target share despite a 79% route participation. However, he has been great on a per-route basis, with a 24% TPRR. We could Smith-Schuster return to the lineup in Week 8, but hopefully, New England keeps Bourne in his current role. Bourne UPGRADES to high-end WR4 status, and if we get a similar performance with JJSS back in the lineup, he enters the WR3 conversation.
- Khalil Shakir: Shakir saw season-highs in route participation (41%) and target share (11%) in Week 7. He still has a long way to go before he becomes significant in fantasy, but there is room for someone to step up behind Stefon Diggs. Shakir is a WR6 stash option in super deep formats.
- Marvin Mims: Ahead of Week 7, Sean Payton stated Marvin Mims was dying to break out. Unfortunately, that didn’t translate to the box score, with Mims scoring minus one points. However, Mims did see a season-high 45% route participation. We don’t know if that is the beginning of a trend, but it is worth monitoring. Mims is a WR6 stash play.
- Odell Beckham: The veteran WR peaked his head out from underneath the fantasy covers to deliver 10 points in Week 7. However, his route participation (64%) and TPRR (18%) remain too low to plug into lineups. In a more pass-friendly Ravens offense, he could sneak into the WR3 conversation if he becomes a full-time player later in the season. Beckham is a mid-range WR5.
- Quentin Johnston: The rookie posted a 69% route participation in Week 7 as the team’s No. 3 WR. However, he continues to struggle to earn targets with a lowly 13% TPRR on the season. Johnston remains a WR6 stash play, but the vibes are bad.
- Rashee Rice: Rice posted a season-high 65% route participation with Justin Watson sidelined. Rice ranks second on the Chiefs with a 28% TPRR and has an amazing five top-36 finishes in seven outings despite never playing a full-time role. Rice breaks many of the historical utilization comp groups because the value of a target from Patrick Mahomes is worth more. Rice UPGRADES to low-end WR4 status and offers WR2 upside if his role grows.
- Romeo Doubs: Doubs has come back down to earth over the last two games and now sits at a 21% target share on the season. However, three teammates picked up injuries, and we await more information. If one or more of Watson, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave miss time, Doubs could see an uptick in opportunities. Doubs is a low-end WR3 but could offer short-term contingent upside.
- Tyler Scott: With Chase Claypool gone to Miami and Equanimeous St. Brown injured, Scott posted a season-high 67% route participation — topping his 63% from Week 6. Scott is a WR7 stash play in super duper duper duper deep leagues.
- Zay Flowers: It seems like we say this every week, but it bears repeating with the Ravens' recent uptick in DBOE: Flowers is due for a blowup game. The first-round NFL Draft has the No. 16 target share in the league (27%), averaging 7.6 looks per game. Since 2011, rookies in his comp group averaged a WR23 finish, and the list is CHOCK FULL of stars like Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Justin Jefferson and Mike Evans, in case your dynasty managers are wondering. Flowers is a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside.
TE Utilization Bytes:
- Cole Kmet: Kmet didn’t see a change in role with 79% route participation but could not secure a target. He remains a low-end TE1.
- Darren Waller: Waller is the clear-cut No. 1 option in the Giants' passing attack with a 23% target share and has reached seven or more targets in five of seven games. He has delivered two top-six finishes over the last three games and looks healthy. Waller’s comparison group averaged 12.8 points with a TE6 overall finish. Waller UPGRADES back to mid-range TE1 status.
- Michael Mayer: Mayer led the team with a 71% snap share and 54% route participation but had to help as a blocker. He is ahead of Hooper but needs 75%-plus route participation for a shot at better fantasy production in an offense with two high-end target earners. Mayer is a high-end TE2 with upside.
- Taysom Hill: Hill has 42% and 40% route participation in the last two games and is suddenly a key target in the offense with eight and five looks. In Week 7, Hill also pitched in with five rushing attempts for 18 yards and a TD. The do-it-all weapon has eclipsed 50 total yards in back-to-back weeks and has gadget upside in the passing attack. Juwan Johnson should return in Week 8, which muddies the waters. However, Hill is worth an add-and-hold because if this trend continues, he will move into the mid-range TE1 range.
- Trey McBride and Zach Ertz: The two TEs split route participation for the second consecutive game, with McBride at 50% and Ertz at 53%. There is a chance we see McBride continue to increase in playing time as the younger option with the Cardinals in last place with a 1-6 record. Ertz DOWNGRADES to low-end TE2 status while McBride remains an upside waiver-wire stash in TE premium leagues.