The Utilization Report. Everything You Need For Fantasy Football In Week 9.
- 1. Trey McBride’s breakout game wasn’t a fluke.
- 2. Tony Pollard doesn’t look right and Dallas isn’t feeding him.
- 3. Kirk Cousins is done for the season: Vikings fallout.
- 4. Gus Edwards gets the rare double-whammy: UPGRADE and SELL-HIGH.
- 5. Chuba Hubbard claws his way up the Panthers' depth chart.
- 6. Javonte Williams registered an EYE-POPPING 82% rush share.
- 7. Who in the hell is Demario Douglas?
- QB Utilization Bytes:
- RB Utilization Bytes:
- WR Utilization Bytes:
- TE Utilization Bytes:
Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).
- Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
- Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
- Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
- Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
- Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
1. Trey McBride’s breakout game wasn’t a fluke.
With Zach Ertz placed on IR, McBride stepped into a full-time role in Week 8 and delivered a 26-point eruption performance — including a sweet team-effort TD. The second-year TE registered an 88% route participation rate and led the Cardinals with a 40% target share.
While the big bump in playing time pushed McBride to new heights, he already earned more playing time and targets from Week 5 to Week 7.
McBride was the Cardinals’ second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft after a stellar senior campaign at Colorado State. That year, he caught 90 balls for 1,121 yards, notching a 2.83 yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA).
Adjusting production for the team environment with metrics like YPTPA helps us compare players across different offenses, and McBride’s best season ranked in the 95th percentile for TE prospects since 2017.
McBride graded out in the 78th percentile of the Fantasy Life Supermodel as a collegiate prospect. Historically, almost half of prospects at that range deliver a top-12 finish in their first three seasons. We have also seen 11% of those prospects notch a top-three season.
While we don’t have a massive sample for McBride in 2023 (127 routes), he ranks second in TPRR at the TE position (27%), behind only Travis Kelce.
In case you are wondering, McBride had a 30% TPRR as a senior and a 23% TPRR for his career.
We could see Kyler Murray back under center in Week 10 if he isn’t moved at the trade deadline. The Cardinals aren’t a high-end passing unit, but Murray’s return would boost the overall accuracy of their attack and make 300-yard passing games a weekly possibility.
Expecting McBride to finish as a top-three TE is unrealistic, but dismissing his Week 8 point total as a fluke would also be unwise.
FAAB recommendation: 30-40%
Outlook: McBride UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status and might have mid-range TE1 potential with Murray at QB.
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2. Tony Pollard doesn’t look right and Dallas isn’t feeding him.
Pollard was one of the more explosive backs in the NFL over the last few seasons, but he has been anything but in 2023. Out of 52 RBs with at least 35 carries, Pollard ranks 39th in 10-plus yard attempts at 6.5% — well below the three-year NFL average of 9.5%.
Pollard is lagging in other efficiency metrics as well.
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 7.4% (50th)
- Average yards after contact: 2.6 (36th)
Per Next Gen Stats, only 28% of Pollard’s carries go for more yards than expected — the fifth-worst mark in the league. That puts him in the same company as Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray, Cam Akers and Miles Sanders. Ewwwwwww.
While the Cowboys' offensive line isn’t as dominant as it once was, the team still ranks 12th in PFF run block grade. There is a chance Pollard still isn’t himself after offseason ankle surgery, but most timelines indicated a three-month time to heal. If Pollard isn’t well after eight weeks coming off of a bye, should we really expect a change in 2023?
While Pollard's snaps have remained fairly steady, his overall touches have declined over the past four games. Over that stretch, he averages 11.5 attempts and four targets.
Per PFF, he ranks third-worst in expected points per game at -3.3 in that span. If those numbers stick, this is bad news for Pollard managers. Since 2011, similar profile backs have averaged 13.6 points with an RB20 finish.
While that isn’t terrible, it isn’t the high-end RB1 upside fantasy managers thought they were getting when they drafted Pollard in Round 2. Things can always turn around, but we must temper expectations until we see either a) improvement in Pollard’s game and/or b) an increase in utilization.
Outlook: Pollard DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
3. Kirk Cousins is done for the season: Vikings fallout.
Cousins has averaged the seventh-most passing yards (269.5) and 2.02 TDs (sixth) per game since 2020. So, replacing him 1:1 isn’t a realistic expectation, regardless of what the Vikings do at QB. However, this situation might not be as bad as everyone thinks for fantasy purposes.
The Vikings could trade for a QB, but as of this writing, that hasn’t happened. A move for someone like Kyler Murray would obviously increase our confidence, but we are likely looking at some combination of Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens to close out the season. So let’s break those scenarios down.
Jaren Hall
I am not going to pretend to know a lot about Hall.
Let’s keep it simple: Most late-round QBs don’t turn into quality NFL starters. Since 2000, 117 QBs have been selected in Round 4 or later and only 11 managed to start at least nine games and average 200-plus yards per game.
Aug 26, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall (16) rolls out to pass against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
If the nine-game cutoff seems weird, well, it is. I chose it because Sam Howell was a Round 5 pick and has played nine games. However, only one other QB was excluded from the 200-yard club due to missing the minimum number of games played — Jake Luton with three.
So back to the lecture at hand — only 9% of QBs drafted in Round 4 or later have turned into 200-yard-per-game QBs since 2000. If we bump that threshold up to 250 yards, our list dwindles to four names: Tom Brady, Cousins, Sam Howell and Dak Prescott.
We will all be rooting for Hall to be the next name added to this list, but in reality, it probably isn’t happening. It is hard to bet on a 3.4% hit rate.
If the Vikings go with Hall, we should expect a dramatic drop in the DBOE as they look to protect the rookie from too many dropbacks. They could look to utilize Hall’s mobility in creative ways and increase their use of play action to try and win via efficiency.
Vikings with Jaren Hall as the starter:
- Justin Jefferson: high-end WR2 (If he plays)
- Jordan Addison: boom-bust WR5
- T.J. Hockenson: low-end TE1
Note: I wanted to include undrafted QBs due to names like Tony Romo, but I didn’t have a good source to count all of the undrafted free-agent QBs who never made it in the NFL. Ultimately, if they were included, our hit-rate percentages would decrease.
Nick Mullens
If Hall shocks the world, great, but in the likely event he doesn’t, Mullens is eligible to return in Week 10. This is where things get interesting.
In 17 games where the veteran QB has played at least 70% of the snaps, he averaged 268 yards and 1.4 TDs. Ummm. Hello.
Look, it is a small sample size, but this isn’t an average just getting driven up by one outlier performance. We can break his passing yardage performances down into buckets:
- 300-plus: Four (24%)
- 275 to 299: Three (17%)
- 250 to 274: Four (24%)
- 225 to 249: Two (12%)
- 200 to 224: Three (17%)
- Less than 200: One (6%)
Mullens has thrown for 250-plus yards in 65% of his NFL starts! His TD production hasn’t been as strong as Cousins, but he has thrown for at least one TD 94% of the time and has hit two-plus TDs in 35% of games.
If Mullens is the starter, the Vikings might throw the ball slightly less. However, they would have the option to stick to their strengths by focusing on their passing-game playmakers — especially if Jefferson returns.
Vikings with Nick Mullens as the starter:
- Jefferson: mid-range WR1 (if he plays)
- Addison: low-end WR3 until Jefferson returns, high-end WR3 until then
- T.J. Hockenson: mid-range TE1
So how do we handle this situation?
I am selling all of my Vikings assets now if I can get anything close to the values listed above under Mullens. That way, if Hall remains the starter, I profit but I also don’t feel bad if Mullens takes over. If my league is panicking, I am holding my Vikings and with any hint that Mullens is the guy I am trying to buy low — especially if Hall tanks in his first start.
4. Gus Edwards gets the rare double-whammy: UPGRADE and SELL-HIGH.
We have seen Edwards slowly push his share of the rushing attempts higher. Over the last two games, that mark eclipsed 60% and the veteran RB delivered 21 and 29 fantasy points.
This is an encouraging development for Edwards. If we break the season down into phases, we can see the steady improvement even more clearly.
- Weeks 1 through 3 Average: 31%
- Weeks 4 through 6 Average: 51%
- Weeks 7 through 8 Average: 66%
My first instinct was to chalk this up to leading game scripts, but the Ravens' propensity to lead extends beyond the last two games. Edwards has seen his role increase in games that have played out similarly over the last month.
Sep 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) carries the ball against the Houston Texans during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Whether the veteran RB can hold onto this workload is debatable. He hasn’t been very efficient compared to 52 RBs with at least 35 carries.
- 10-plus yard attempts: 8.6% (27th)
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 11.4% (43rd)
- Average yards after contact: 2.5 (37th)
However, according to Next Gen Stats, 42% of Edwards’ totes have gone for more yards than expected — which ranks 12th out of 49 RBs with at least 40 carries. So, the big-bodied back hasn’t been flashy, but he has steadily gotten the job done, and the Ravens’ coaching staff is rewarding him.
Edwards still gives way to Justice Hill more often than not on passing downs, but over the last two contests, he averaged 16.5 carries and 1.5 targets per game. Edwards has also recently dominated work inside the five-yard line. He has five of the team’s six lugs from in close over the last three games.
These developments represent a significant upgrade to Edwards’ status should they hold. His early-season utilization was consistent with a low-end RB3, but now he looks more like a low-end RB2. The average RB with Edwards’ profile finished as the RB22 with 12.7 points per game based on data over the last 12 seasons.
If you have a league-mate desperate at the RB position willing to overpay for Edwards, he continues to be a great SELL-HIGH candidate. This is a TD-dependent profile that has cashed in on TDs with four over the last two games, which won’t happen every week. Edwards is your mid-season version of what Brian Robinson Jr. did to start the year.
Outlook: Edwards UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status but remains a SELL-HIGH candidate after two top-five performances.
5. Chuba Hubbard claws his way up the Panthers' depth chart.
Frank Reich handed over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown after an 0-6 start, and coming out of the bye week, Hubbard bogarted 66% of snaps and 71% of attempts.
The third-year RB did all this despite big-money free agent Miles Sanders’ absence from the injury report. Hubbard saw a similar role with Sanders out in Week 6 and has averaged 17 attempts and 1.5 targets over the last two contests.
Hubbard has been the more efficient runner this season, ranking ahead of Sanders in 10-plus yard attempts (7.2%), missed tackles forced (23%) and average yards after contact (3.0). So, unless the team is holding back information on an injury to Sanders, it appears Hubbard is the new No. 1 in Carolina.
Hubbard remains available in almost 40% of leagues and is a PRIORITY WAIVER option if you are hurting at RB.
FAAB Recommendation: 20-30%
Outlook: Hubbard UPGRADES to high-end RB3 status and will become a low-end RB2 with a similar utilization performance in Week 9.
6. Javonte Williams registered an EYE-POPPING 82% rush share.
Last week Williams received an upgrade to mid-range RB3 status thanks to a solid two-game trend, and that continued in Week 8. Williams delivered season-highs in snaps (66%), attempts (82%) and fantasy points (19).
The second-year back toted the rock a hefty 27 times and also had three targets — apparently, any restriction there may have been on touches is gone. And the Broncos might be converting into a run-first operation. Over the last three games, Denver has turned to the run game with negative DBOE marks.
Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin both continue to get work, and Williams’ role hasn’t expanded yet in the passing game, despite his RB1-worthy TPRR (29%). For now, Williams is still game-script dependent despite the Broncos' recent DBOE trends, but if he starts getting more passing-game work, he could be a major factor down the stretch.
Outlook: Williams UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status but will move to high-end RB2 status with another 70%-plus rush share outing.
7. Who in the hell is Demario Douglas?
Douglas was a gaudy 28% TPRR player over his collegiate career at Liberty. While small school WRs don’t always translate well to the NFL, the Patriots’ sixth-round pick is climbing the depth chart. He reached a season-high 84% route participation and 22% target share in Week 8.
Over the last three games, Douglas has taken over the lead slot role. And while we love to make fun of the Patriots’ inability to scout WRs, they do know how to find good slot options, as we have witnessed with Wes Welker (trade), Julian Edelman (draft) and Jakobi Meyers (draft).
With Kendrick Bourne (ACL) out for the season, Douglas and his 24% TPRR are looking pretty good. It is hard to see a ton of TD upside in this offense, but the rookie could become a PPR machine down the stretch. In a full-time role, he could push for seven to eight targets per game, and that provides a low-end WR3 return.
Douglas is currently available in most fantasy leagues and is a PRIORITY WAIVER wire option in PPR and half-PPR formats.
FAAB recommendation: 10-15%
Outlook: Douglas UPGRADES to low-end WR4 status and could be in the WR3 conversation by next week.
QB Utilization Bytes:
- Desmond Ridder: Taylor Heinicke took over after Ridder only registered 76 yards passing and a fumble in the first half. Ridder had to go through concussion protocol but was cleared, and Arthur Smith insisted it wasn’t performance-related. However, the leash could be short moving forward — Ridder has seven fumbles on the season, and the opposition has recovered six. He was sacked five times in Week 8, and his pressure-to-sack ratio ranks in the bottom five. The second-year QB isn’t helping the Falcons offense, but Smith likely has pressure from up top to stick with Ridder as long as possible. Ridder DOWNGRADES to low-end QB2 status.
- Joe Burrow: Burrow has thrown eight TDs over his last three games after only throwing two over the first four. Healthy and operating in an offense that ranks third in dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) with high-end weapons surrounding him, Burrow is ready to help win fantasy championships. Burrow UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory.
- Josh Allen: In two games with Damien Harris out of the lineup, Allen has 15% and 14% of the designed rushing attempts. Those marks align with what we have seen historically, but Buffalo added Leonard Fournette to their practice squad. Allen picked up a shoulder injury last Thursday night, but the Bills might look to protect their superstar passer moving forward by getting Fournette involved. Allen remains a high-end QB1, but we will have to wait and see if his recent uptick in rushing volume sticks.
- Matthew Stafford: Stafford left the game after the first drive of the second half with a thumb injury. He didn’t suffer a break but suffered a UCL injury and is day-to-day, according to Sean McVay.
- Will Levis: Levis threw for 238 yards and four TDs in his first career start. The second-round pick completed 66% of his passes despite pushing the ball down the field with a 12.3 aDOT — a whopping 29% of his attempts were 20 yards or deeper. While that isn’t sustainable, Levis delivered a 76.1 PFF pass grade, with 6.7% of his passes registering as big-time throws and was the spark the Titans offense needed. The rookie was also active with three designed rushing attempts and two scrambles. We don’t know if Levis will retain the starting job when Tannehill returns, but he is worth a pickup if you need upside at QB. Levis UPGRADES to mid-range QB2 status with upside.
RB Utilization Bytes:
- Cleveland Backfield: With Jerome Ford banged up, the Browns deployed a three-way committee in Week 8. However, it’s hard to take too much from the outing, considering Ford was playing through an ankle injury. Expect Ford to lead again once healthy, with Kareem Hunt operating as the No. 2 and Pierre Strong Jr. as the No. 3.
- Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary: Pierce and Singletary continued to split the backfield coming out of Houston’s bye week. Neither back is useful in fantasy until something changes. Both backs are RB4 material.
- Darrell Henderson: Henderson led the Rams backfield again with 12 attempts (52%) and three targets (10%). However, Stafford could miss time with a thumb injury which would hurt Henderson’s chances at scoring TDs. Henderson DOWNGRADES to low-end RB3 status if Stafford is out.
- D’Onta Foreman: The Bears split the backfield three ways between Foreman, Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans in Week 8. Khalil Herbert is eligible to return from IR in Week 10. Foreman DOWNGRADES to low-end RB4 territory.
- Emari Demercado: Demercado led the Cardinals backfield for the third time in four games with a 56% snap share and 67% of the rushing attempts. Over the last two games, he has 18 and 21 opportunities. Unfortunately, he has yet to turn those touches into much fantasy production, averaging 9.3 points. James Conner is eligible to return in Week 10, so the rookie has one more shot to serve as a bye-week filler. Demercado’s utilization makes him a borderline RB2 until Conner returns.
- Jeff Wilson Jr.: Wilson received his first five rushing attempts (21%) of the season and picked up two targets (5%) playing in a backup role to Mostert. Unfortunately, De’Von Achane is eligible to return after the Week 10 bye, leaving little runway for Wilson to get hot. Wilson is an RB6 stash play.
- Jonathan Taylor: Taylor reached a season-high 61% snap share, but the rushing workload has leveled off over the last three games (53%, 50%, 52%). Taylor continues to look good on his opportunities, but it is hard to project him for big touches until we see a change in utilization. Taylor is a mid-range RB2.
- Leonard Fournette: The Bills are signing the veteran RB to their practice squad (pending physical), and he could take over Damien Harris’ role (IR). Latavius Murray has been ineffective inside the five-yard line, and Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury. While effectiveness on carries inside the five can be a fluky stat, it can impact who the coaches want in the game. The veteran is a capable passing-down back and has the size to punch in scores, meaning a complete takeover isn’t outside Fournette's range of outcomes. Fournette UPGRADES to RB5 with upside territory and should be added off the waiver wire in medium-to-large leagues.
- Raheem Mostert: Mostert has cooled off over the last two games with RB34 and RB18 finishes, but his utilization hasn’t changed. He continues to handle around 50% of the rushing attempts and 45% route participation. It just turns out that scoring TDs at a record-setting pace is really hard to do — even for Dolphins players. De’Von Achane will miss at least one more game before returning from IR. Mostert is a high-end RB2 with big-play upside until Achane returns.
- Roschon Johnson: Johnson led the Bears in snaps (37%) and route participation (21%), but it was a three-headed committee. With Herbert eligible to return in Week 10, Johnson’s window to seize the backfield is shrinking. Johnson is an upside RB5 who should be rostered in most formats but remains bench material.
- Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet saw season-highs in snaps (55%), rushing attempts (31%) and route participation (56%) in Week 8. He handled 100% of the long-down-distance (LDD) and two-minute offense snaps. Kenneth Walker was limited last week during practice, so it is hard to say if this utilization will stick. However, it serves as a reminder that Charbonnet is one of the best handcuff options in fantasy and shouldn’t be available in over half of fantasy leagues like he is today. Charbonnet is an upside RB5 that picks value if his expanded role sticks in the coming weeks.
WR Utilization Bytes:
- Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua: Stafford left the game with a thumb injury (UCL), and his status is up in the air for Week 9. If Stafford misses time, we will have to temper expectations for the dynamic WR duo.
- DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins went off for 35 fantasy points thanks to three long receiving TDs with Levis dealing. The veteran WR has proven he can still earn targets (27%), but the conservative Titans approach and Ryan Tannehill’s struggles have held him down. Hopkins offers WR2 upside if Levis has another strong start and holds onto the job, but for now, Hopkins is a mid-range WR3.
- Diontae Johnson: Johnson has 26% and 35% target shares in his two games since returning from a hamstring injury. He has finished as the WR21 and WR18, with the QB struggles continuing in Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett is questionable for Week 9, but Trubisky averages 216 yards in games where he plays at least 70% of snaps, and Pickett averages 217. Johnson UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory.
- Drake London: London was crushing again with a 25% TPRR before leaving the game with a groin injury. If the Falcons ever move to Heinicke, London could be in for a slight upgrade. Terry McLaurin averaged 15.6 points with Heinicke last year, and the veteran QB surprisingly supported more than one viable fantasy option in five of nine starts. London remains a mid-range WR3 but could have WR2 upside if healthy with Heinicke under center.
- Garrett Wilson: Wilson is bogarting SO MANY of the Jets targets he is overcoming the inaccuracy woes of his QB. Wilson averages 9.3 targets per game, ranks third in the NFL in target share and is one of only six WRs to average a 28%-plus target share against man and zone coverage. His 57% catch rate isn’t optimal, but his comps since 2011 have averaged a WR19 finish with 15.1 points per game — which aligns with Wilson’s 14.1 this season. Wilson UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.
- Jahan Dotson: Dotson FINALLY got on the scoreboard in 2023 with a WR6 overall performance on 25 fantasy points. The second-year WR’s 5.6 targets per game (16%) remain too low, but he rarely leaves the field (86% routes) on a pass-first offense with a drastically improved QB. Dotson is a boom-bust WR4.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: JSN scratched out 13 fantasy points thanks to a TD, but he saw four-week lows in route participation (67%) and targets (11%). Smith-Njigba DOWNGRADES to low-end WR4 status.
- Kendrick Bourne: Sadly, Bourne tore his ACL and is done for the season. Demario Douglas looks like the only rosterable WR on the Patriots roster, but JuJu Smith-Schuster could become relevant again in very deep formats.
- Khalil Shakir: Shakir registered season-highs in route participation (72%), target share (15%) and fantasy points (15). The second-year WR might see an expanded role if Buffalo sticks with the quick passing game moving forward. However, the team only had one TE available in Week 8, so we don’t know if the increase in routes will continue. Shakir UPGRADES to a WR5 with UPSIDE and is available in most leagues.
- Marquise Brown: Brown averages 13.4 points per game despite battling the ups and downs associated with Joshua Dobbs’ accuracy. However, he averages 8.4 targets per game as he dominates looks against man (37%) and zone coverage (25%). We could see Murray back under center in Week 9 or 10. Brown is a nice BUY-LOW candidate if Murray isn’t moved at the trade deadline. Brown would UPGRADE to mid-range WR2 status with Murray.
- Nico Collins: The Texans passing attack has hit the skids over the last three games. Collins is still earning high-end marks in the target share department (25% and 29% over the last two), but the team has a negative DBOE in four consecutive games, including a season-low -12% in Week 8. Collins’ talent profile screams WR2, which makes him a BUY-LOW. However, the Texans' recent offensive woes DOWNGRADE him to low-end WR3 territory.
- Quentin Johnston: Johnston’s average route participation is 63% since the loss of Mike Williams, and he hasn’t reached 70% yet. While that trend continued in Week 8, the rookie saw a season-high six targets (17%), with Joshua Palmer battling a knee injury. Johnston remains a WR6 stash, but the door could be open for a larger role while Palmer gets right.
- Rashee Rice: Rice has plateaued at the 60-65% route participation range over the last two games. We will see if he can use this as a launch pad to climb another step in the coming weeks. Rice is a mid-range WR4 with UPSIDE that could develop into a WR2.
- Tank Dell: With Robert Woods sidelined, Dell disappointed in the box score with only six fantasy points, but he registered a season-high 93% route participation. His TPRR is down to 20% on the season, but that is still WR3-worthy, and he has that big-play ability to provide spike-week upside. Dell remains a low-end WR3 with upside while Woods is out.
- Tee Higgins: Higgins returned to action with an 82% route participation and a 19% target share. The Bengals are the third-most pass-heavy team with a 7.5% dropback rate over expectation (DBOE), and Joe Burrow looks like his old self. With the Bengals' passing game just now clicking, now is the time to swoop and make a trade offer before Higgins registers a blowup outing. Higgins is a low-end WR2 with upside.
- Terry McLaurin: McLaurin averages 15.3 points per game over the last three contests with 10.7 targets per game (30%). The talented WR started the season slow, battling a turf toe injury but appears to be back to full health. On a team with the second-highest DBOE (7.6%) and an accurate young QB, McLaurin has room for more upside. Out of all the Commanders’ WRs, McLaurin has the lowest catch rate (53%) despite a reasonable 12.2 aDOT. Given Howell’s 67% completion rate, we should expect positive regression. McLaurin UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and has WR2 UPSIDE.
- Trey Palmer: Palmer has yet to earn many targets (12% TPRR), but he registered a season-high 88% route participation against the Bills. Palmer isn’t rosterable in most formats but is worth monitoring over the coming weeks.
- Treylon Burks: Burks returned to action for the first time since Week 3 but only played on 55% of pass plays. Burks could expand his role as he gets back into shape, but for now, he is splitting time with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore. Burks is a WR6 stash option in deep leagues.
- Zay Flowers: Flowers remains a focal point of the Ravens offense, leading the team with 7.4 targets per game (27%). He gets plenty of schemed looks and leads the team with a 26% target share against man coverage with a 7.8 aDOT. Flowers is a BUY-LOW option as a mid-range WR3 with upside.
TE Utilization Bytes:
- Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid saw a season-high 85% route participation and accounted for 18% of the targets, with Dawson Knox (IR) and Quintin Morris out. The rookie has seven and eight targets over the last two games. Kincaid is a mid-range TE1 until Knox returns.
- Jake Ferguson: Ferguson surpassed an 80% route participation for the second consecutive game, and his TPRR sits at 18% for the season. Ferguson is a low-end TE1.
- Kyle Pitts: Pitts could see expanded targets if London (groin) misses time. We could also see an improvement in QB play if Heinicke eventually pushes Ridder to the side. Heinicke proved capable of supporting up to two fantasy weapons in five of nine starts last season in Washington. Pitts remains a low-end TE1 but UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status if London misses time.
- Taysom Hill: Hill still managed to put up fantasy points with the return of Juwan Johnson to the lineup. While a 40% route participation isn’t great, Hill has hit at least one reception every time he has been around that number. Over the last two games, we have also seen Hill get three rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, which has led to two TDs. He has 14 attempts in that span – despite the return of Jamaal Williams. Of course, he also gets the occasional passing opportunity, as we saw him go two of three for 44 yards in Week 8. When you add it all up, you have a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside.