The Ron Rivera "era" in Washington ended with a 26-40-1 record and *zero* playoff victories. 

Never fear, Dan Quinn is here—and the former Cowboys defensive coordinator is teaming up with ex-Cardinals coach/Thailand enthusiast Kliff Kingsbury. Together they'll look to turn around what was a brutal scoring offense (25th in points per game) and defense (32nd) alike in 2023.

Of course, the 2024 edition of the Washington Football Team (can we still call them that? It's technically true) will look quite different from last year's disappointment. A quick overview of the Commanders' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Like a lot of franchises: There's a good chance the overall success of this group is determined by just how high their shiny new QB can fly, so let's dive into the Washington Commanders fantasy football outlook for 2024.

Washington Commanders Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner racked up ridiculous numbers as both a passer (3,812 yards, 40 TDs) and rusher (135-1,134-10) during his magical 2023 campaign. The latter production is particularly encouraging when projecting Daniels in 2024 considering dual-threat QBs tend to be a bit of a cheat code in fantasy land.

It's not erroneous to believe Daniels will be one of the position’s top-five most-productive rushers the second he steps on an NFL field. The man posted 11-163-1, 12-234-2, 10-96-2, and 11-120-0 rushing lines during his final four collegiate games, regularly proving capable of making men miss in the open field and absolutely erasing pursuit angles from second-level defenders on his way to racking up chunk gains:

  • Daniels’ rate of 0.31 missed tackles forced per rush attempt tops what guys like Lamar Jackson (0.25), Justin Fields (0.24), Jalen Hurts (0.22), and Kyler Murray (0.18) achieved during their collegiate careers.
  • The LSU product’s 28.5% explosive run play rate is within shouting distance of what Jackson (30.5%), Murray (30.6%), and Malik Willis (31.9%) managed in college.
  • Overall, Daniels' 14.5 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production in his final collegiate season easily led this class and bested what guys like Kyler Murray (12.3) and Anthony Richardson (10) managed in their final year in school.

The fact that Daniels achieved this against the best competition that college football had to offer also matters. Our only red flag here is Daniels' recklessness in the open field: He can slide, but as Yahoo’s Nate Tice points out: There’s some Johnny Knoxville to his game.

<a target=

Apr 25, 2024; Detroit, MI, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels poses after being selected by the Washington Commanders as the No. 2 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There are reasons to be concerned about how Daniels' game will translate at the NFL level. The LSU offense provided one of the coziest offensive environments in all of college football, and Daniels REALLY finds himself in some bad company when looking at his ability to not let pressured dropbacks turn into sacks.

And yet, high-volume rushing QBs simply don't have much of a habit of busting in fantasy football. Fifteen of 16 QBs to rack up 125-plus carries in a season ever went on to post top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game—including 11 top-five finishes. This is certainly something Kingsbury has plenty of experience with, dating back to his time with Kyler Murray in Arizona: Only the Saints (s/o Taysom Hill) utilized more designed QB runs than the Cardinals during the 2019 to 2022 seasons.

Only four rookies have posted top-12 numbers at the position over the past 10 years (Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray), but Daniels boasts the sort of day-one starting job and rushing upside to become the fifth.

Bottom line: Daniels doesn't have to be a particularly good real life QB yet in order to be a fantasy stud in 2024. He deserves to go alongside Caleb Williams on the QB1 borderline and potentially profiles as THE late-round QB of this year should his ADP stay low enough.

Running Back

The good: Ekeler has worked as one of the game’s most productive RBs over the last half-decade:

  • 2019: 19.3 PPR points per game (RB6)
  • 2020: 16.5 (RB9)
  • 2021: 21.5 (RB3)
  • 2022: 21.9 (RB1)
  • 2023: 13.2 (RB21)

The bad: Last season’s steep drop-off in production was far from ideal.

Still, it’s worth wondering just how much of an issue his Week 1 high ankle sprain wound up being. We've all seen the long run against the Packers when Ekeler reached just 13 miles per hour, but he looked plenty spry before the injury, notably hitting 19.6 miles per hour on this screen.

The 28-year-old veteran isn’t a spring chicken at this point, but historically RBs haven’t really fallen off the fantasy mountain until after their age 30 season. Do 26-year-old veterans Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard REALLY deserve that much more benefit of the doubt when it comes to their down 2023 seasons than Ekeler?

The presence of Robinson will certainly limit Ekeler's touch count (head coach Dan Quinn is a fan), but then again, the longtime Chargers stud never had more than 206 rush attempts in a single season anyway: Ekeler's fantasy cheat code has always been his receiving volume and red zone usage—two features that seem to have as good a chance at persisting in Washington with Anthony Lynn as the running backs coach as they would just about anywhere else.

Both Lynn and Kingsbury have histories with enabling multiple productive RBs inside the same offense:

Two RBs putting up solid fantasy production is hardly unheard of in the modern NFL: An average of 1.9 offenses enabled multiple top-24 RBs in PPR points per game from 2013-2022.

It’s not a certainty that Ekeler will be on the right side of this upcoming two-back committee; just realize that both Kingsbury (13th in RB targets) and Lynn (2nd) led offenses that regularly FED the RB in the passing game—a role that is wide open in Washington after Antonio Gibson took his talents to New England during free agency.

It’d be terrifying to draft Ekeler as his usual first-round self in this new situation, but you don’t have to! Early Underdog ADP has the veteran sitting as the RB33 one spot ahead of Robinson (RB34)—a late-ninth-round pick isn’t too steep of a price for someone *checks notes* 12 months removed from winning fantasy football leagues around the globe.

The biggest problem here is whether or not the overall upside is really worth chasing due to the likelihood that Daniels makes a habit of 1.) scrambling instead of checking the ball down, and 2.) factoring into the run-game equation near the goal line.

Among 55 QBs who registered at least 80 rush attempts (5 per game) since 2010…

  • 15 of their RBs turned in top-12 finishes in PPR points per game (27%)
  • 28 of their RBs racked up top-24 numbers (51%)
  • The average RB finish: RB22
  • The median RB finish: RB24

Not wonderful, but then again, even low-end RB2 production would be more than fine at each RB's current RB3 price point.

Bottom line: Both Ekeler and Robinson profile as solid zero-RB targets thanks to the likelihood this is a condensed two-RB committee, even if the presence of a high-volume dual-threat QB will likely prevent either from truly ascending to the top of the fantasy ranks.

Wide Receiver

McLaurin is this generation's Allen Robinson: An incredibly talented receiver sadly forced to play with one mediocre QB after another.

I mean, how hard is it to get this guy the football!

Credit to McLaurin for rolling with the punches and ripping off four consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus yards, but 25 TDs in five years reflects the reality that this has hardly been an overly fantasy-friendly environment:

  • 2019: 13.7 PPR points per game (WR29)
  • 2020: 14.9 (WR20)
  • 2021: 12.6 (WR30)
  • 2022: 13.5 (WR23)
  • 2023: 12.3 (WR36)

I would like to think Daniels will be the best QB that McLaurin has ever had the privilege of playing with, but it's not a guarantee that the rookie edition will be much of an upgrade over what Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett brought to the table last season.

The history of rookie QBs enabling high-end fantasy WRs is, well, not good. The No. 1 fantasy WR in PPR points per game has posted the following production from 41 offenses that have started a rookie QB for at least 10 games in a season since 2010:

  • 5/41 finished in the top-12 (12%)
  • 13/41 finished in the top-24 (32%)
  • Average finish: WR33
  • Median finish: WR35
  • High: WR7
  • Low: WR67

Not necessarily a death blow—McLaurin's WR33 ADP is right in line with the average finish—but it also doesn't exactly leave a ton of optimism surrounding the potential for anyone in this passing game to boom in a truly meaningful way in 2024.

That point holds true for Dotson, whose disappointing 2023 campaign can't be explained away by an injury or lack of on-field opportunity. Maybe Howell just really didn't like the 2022 first-round pick; it's hard to explain otherwise how Dotson only earned a target on a team-low 12.4% of his routes last season.

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Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1) catches touchdown pass against Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Josh Jobe (28) and safety Terrell Edmunds (26) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Look, Dotson flashed in 2023 and proved capable of creating separation at all three levels of the field, but he profiles as the hopeful No. 2 pass-game option in an offense not exactly expected to resemble the 1999 Rams. Fantasy Life projections have Daniels tabbed for just 3,334 yards and 20 TDs; don't expect any WRs other than McLaurin to emerge as someone you're overly excited about getting into your lineup on a weekly basis.

That point holds true for "LMC" for now. Maybe Luke got the Christian McCaffrey genes, or maybe he got the Max McCaffrey ones. Either way, the QB-convert is still learning the nuances of the position and could struggle to play an every-down role in an offense that looks ready to lean into 12 personnel.

Bottom line: McLaurin is appropriately priced as a mid-tier WR3, while neither Dotson nor McCaffrey are shaping up as particularly appealing later-round darts due to the likelihood this Daniels-led attack doesn't make for the world's most fantasy-friendly passing environment.

Tight End

Ertz signed a one-year, $5 million deal in Washington despite looking all kinds of washed over the past two seasons. Consider: 125 players have received at least 100 targets over the past two seasons, and Ertz's average of 5.3 yards per target ranks 121st as well as dead last among all TEs.

And yet, the 33-year-old veteran profiles as this offense's lead TE based on his history with Kingsbury in Arizona. Overall, Ertz received at least 10 targets in 9 of his 28 games with the Cardinals—more than anyone other than Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson during this span even though Ertz has missed a full 17 games over the past two seasons.

Will Ertz make much out of his opportunities in Washington? Probably not! But that didn't stop Kingsbury from featuring him ahead of another former stud second-round pick in Trey McBride back in 2022. Overall, McBride had just four total targets in Weeks 1-10 as a rookie before Ertz was lost for the season.

This isn't to dismiss the possibility that Sinnott finds a way to make an early impact. The reigning Lowman Award winner presented to the nation's best collegiate fullback, Sinnott combines elite athleticism coming off an impressive (for a TE) 49-676-6 senior campaign. Still, his Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model comps aren't great, and it's possible the second-round pick finds himself in a part-time role inside a probably meh passing game to begin his career.

Bottom line: Ertz is the sort of "progress stopper" veteran TE who will soak up snaps despite likely not providing much efficiency in return, making Sinnott more of a mid-round dynasty stash as opposed to a late-round TE you should be going out of your way for in redraft and best ball land.

Washington Commanders 2024 Season Prediction

There are some solid enough pieces on this offense to believe that Daniels could experience some solid year-one moments, although expecting a complete turnaround from the league's reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense is probably wishful thinking considering the group's lack of blue-chip resources outside of the defensive tackle room.

Excuse me for not being overly enthralled about a franchise that has done very little in the way of winning football games for the better part of the 21st century and has now resorted to being led by two coaches who flamed out rather miserably during their last head coaching gigs, but I'm going to go ahead and take under 6.5 wins for a squad that continues to look like one of the worst teams in football.

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