Week 1 Matchup of the Week. Dolphins @ Chargers Breakdown.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
- Projected Total: 50.5
- Spread: Chargers -3
I can’t even try to hide the amount of fantasy goodness between the Dolphins and Chargers to start the 2023 season.
Look at the projected total. Vegas has two games in Week 1 with projected totals over 50 points: one features Patrick Mahomes, and we’re talking about the other here. But fantasy gamers probably already knew this would be a game to watch on Sunday.
Look at the skill players on either team. By ADP, you won’t leave the early rounds without seeing six names from this game come off the board. And I might’ve had some things to say about a late-round TE you’ll see running around in SoFi Stadium that day.
Regardless, drafters heavily invested in both squads, so let’s break it down starting on the Miami side.
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Miami Dolphins Week 1 Outlook
If the preseason is any indication, the Dolphins’ passing attack will pick up where it left off in 2022. When Tua Tagovailoa was under center, Miami had a +5.3% pass rate over expected (PROE). Only the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals threw the ball more. But none of them had the same depth. Tua’s 10.1 passing aDOT ranked second in the league. And with his receiving options, it’s easy to see why.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (aka “The Blur Brothers”) accounted for 67.4% of Tua’s yards. Across his 12 healthy games, Hill (3.43) and Waddle (3.13) were first and second in yards per route run (YPRR). They were both top 10 in total YAC. And, theoretically, their ability to turn a big gain into six points would put them at an advantage.
he Chargers allowed the third-highest explosive pass rate last season (9.9%). But Chargers’ HC Brandon Staley doesn’t slouch when it comes to defensive game planning.
Tua’s average time to throw was 2.5 seconds in his 12 other games. He got the ball out as fast as Joe Burrow. But when Tua faced LA last season, it was like his controller got disconnected while playing Madden. He averaged 2.76 seconds to throw and only mustered eight first downs.
A third option in the aerial attack would keep the offense moving, and the Dolphins added a viable solution through the draft.
Devon Achane averaged 7.5 YAC per reception over his final two seasons at Texas A&M. Albeit different positions, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7.6) and Jordan Addison (7.0) were similarly devastating in the open field. Regardless, Achane should force a different approach from the Chargers defensively.
So while Raheem Mostert will dominate the carries with Jeff Wilson on IR, Achane’s likely usage in obvious passing situations and two-minute snaps will be the X-factor for Miami’s offense.
Nov 6, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) celebrates his first quarter touchdown against the Chicago Bears with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
But let’s talk fantasy value on the Dolphins' side a bit more.
The Chargers’ secondary will return J.C. Jackson and Asante Samuel. There are others, but I’m focusing on these two for our purposes. By ’22 metrics, Jackson ranked dead last in PFF’s coverage grade, with 81.2% of his snaps played on the perimeter. However, he spent over half the season rehabbing from a torn patellar tendon.
n his final season with the Patriots, QBs averaged the fourth-lowest passer rating when throwing Jackson’s way.
Meanwhile, Samuel played opposite Jackson when healthy (86.3%). However, the team has moved Samuel into the slot, with his starting role only recently solidified. As a result, I’d be looking to target the interior option for Tua in Week 1.
In Tua’s 12 healthy games last year, Tyreek Hill’s 43.9% slot rate dwarfed Jaylen Waddle’s (22.5%). And Hill’s slot role didn’t change this year, with half of his snaps from the inside through the preseason.
There’s no question that with Waddle back practicing, the two will resume their hoarding of Tua’s targets. But the Chargers’ defensive adjustments favor the former Chiefs’ speedster.
Conversely, I have concerns about Miami’s running game. The Dolphins ended 2022 with the 12th-worst run block win rate, they brought back four of five starters, and Terron Armstead is yet to practice. And it’s not like we’re looking to Raheem Mostert for his high-end efficiency.
You’ll find the former 49ers’ RB sandwiched between Cam Akers and Antonio Gibson in rushing success rate. Regardless, it’s Mostert’s explosiveness we want.
In games with Armstead on the field, Mostert had a 15.6% explosive run rate. Without the star LT, it dropped to 13.6%. He’ll garner most of the touches once the team gets into the red zone, likely saving his day. However, without a short run into the end zone, Mostert may struggle out of the gate.
Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 Outlook
Meanwhile, the Chargers are probably happy to have a healthy starting offense.
Justin Herbert spent most of the season nursing fractured rib cartilage, his starting left tackle went down in Week 3, and he was without at least one of his primary WRs for 11 games. But it didn’t stop LA from throwing the ball.
Despite the injuries, the Chargers were among the six teams in the top 10 for overall PROE and red-zone PROE. But Herbert’s 7.0 aDOT ranked just ahead of Matt Ryan. However, with him back healthy and the Dolphins’ secondary already ailing, we might be in for some fireworks from the Bolts.
Unfortunately, Miami didn’t get beat deep often and allowed the ninth-lowest explosive play rate in ’22. So, teams took to the interior. Pass-catchers manning the slot totaled 11 of the 26 passing touchdowns scored against the Dolphins last season. As a result, fantasy managers should have Keenan Allen locked into one of their starting spots come Week 1.
The 31-year-old veteran had a 64.3% snap rate from the inside last season and, when healthy, led the Chargers’ receivers in red-zone targets. But his (and Mike Williams’s) absences pushed the team to add another option for Herbert. And with their rookie addition showing out in the preseason, LA has a better shot at moving the chains.
Regardless, we shouldn’t forget Williams after a sad end to the 2022 season.
When healthy, the Clemson product’s 19.6% target share was the most on the Chargers’ offense. Admittedly, players like Donovan Peoples-Jones (20.0%) and Curtis Samuel (20.2%) earned more looks within their respective squads over the same span. However, neither had the same potential for an explosive game.
Jan 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81) catches the ball in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Williams’s 36.8% air yard share was eighth-best among all WRs. And, when he could, Herbert would look for Williams downfield. Of receivers with 50 or more targets, Williams was ninth in attempts of 20 air yards or more.
So, we’ve got a pass-catcher tied to a high-end QB, who challenged his competition for the most touches and created explosives. Coincidentally, the deep ball is where Miami struggled last season.
The Dolphins allowed the fifth-most completions of passes thrown downfield (32). Jalen Ramsey is on IR, and Eli Apple, Miami’s latest addition to the secondary, is no stranger to seeing the back of his opponent’s jersey. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler are the safe, simple options for this game. However, if there’s a third with top-12 potential, it’s a healthy Mike Williams.
Well, maybe there’s a fourth.
I’ve talked about Gerald Everett’s value as a late-round dart since the beginning of the summer. His 22.1% targets per route run rate (TPRR) and 19.4% red-zone target share ranked 12th amongst all TEs last season.
While Allen’s and Williams’s absences inflated some of his workload, Everett was still third in high-value looks from Herbert when the crew was all healthy down the stretch in ’22. So, volume shouldn’t be an issue for the 29-year-old vet to start the season.
And, if last year was any indication, Miami’s struggles against TEs may work out in our favor.
The Dolphins tied for the most top-12 finishes surrendered to an opposing team’s tight end (10). They gave up the sixth-most top-6 results. And it’s not like they got steamrolled by the elites. Cole Kmet tagged them for 22 PPR points on six targets, and Dawson Knox nearly cleared 100 yards (98) against the Dolphins in their divisional rematch.
Given Everett’s role on the team and their passing tendencies, the late-round TE has an equal shot at finding the end zone against Miami in Week 1.
Regardless, I’m interested in what Quentin Johnston brings to the table in his rookie season. Most fans clamored for the Chargers to add a speedster, which would fit with the cannon attached to Herbert’s right shoulder. However, I valued efficiency over speed when thinking about ways for LA to improve their passing game.
The Bolts’ ancillary receivers couldn’t crack the Top 100 in YPRR. Accordingly, Herbert’s aDOT continued to drop without Williams or Allen on the field. Johnston certainly has the athletic profile to create explosives, but having an intermediate target to convert third downs will be critical against the Dolphins.
But, of course, so is Austin Ekeler. While Miami’s defensive front was top 8 in rushing EPA and success rate allowed, Ekeler’s dual-threat ability keeps every opponent on their toes.
He was the only RB with top-5 marks in red-zone carry rate and overall target share. And with Miami allowing the fourth-most PPR points to RBs, Ekeler will remain in the RB1 discussion for the 2023 season.
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