Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 1 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus
It’s Week 1 and we’re already dealing with injury situations ahead of Sunday’s kickoff.
Start/sit decisions will be on everyone’s mind the next couple of days, but of course, the Fantasy Life crew has you covered.
Part of our rankings squad got together to find a few players they’re higher on than the consensus, or otherwise, more excited than normal to play this week.
With their analysis in hand, you should be able to roster these guys and take down your Week 1 matchup.
QB - Anthony Richardson (Colts) vs. Jaguars
Two key metrics from the preseason help support the idea that Richardson could provide some truly great fantasy football goodness while struggling on the real-life scene: Nobody utilized run-pass-options (RPOs) or the no-huddle more frequently than the Colts in August.
- 28.4% RPO rate (next-closest team: WSH, 24.5%)
- 13.7% no-huddle rate (next-closest team: SEA, 13.2%)
One of my bold calls for 2023 is that Richardson will set the NFL record for most carries by a QB in a single season—something that seems more possible than ever with disgruntled RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle/contract, PUP) unavailable for at least the first four games of the season.
Maybe, just maybe, this schematic trend helps lead to a fantasy boom as early as Week 1: The Jaguars were a bottom-five defense in yards per play (5.4) and EPA against (+0.11) vs. RPOs last season.
Guys like Tim Tebow and Taysom Hill have emerged as viable fantasy QB1s thanks to little more than that sweet, sweet rushing upside—I’m riding with Richardson as a top-10 option out of the gate thanks to his status as *checks notes* objectively the most athletic QB the position has ever seen.
RB - Aaron Jones (Packers) at Bears
The Packers kept Jones in bubble wrap this preseason because he is their best running back.
Yes, Dillon is going to get his carries, but there should be more than enough to go around in this matchup against Chicago.
The Bears gave up a whopping 158 yards and 1.8 TDs per game on the ground in 2022. They added Tremaine Edmonds at middle linebacker, but this is still a unit with big questions heading into Week 1.
The Packers won’t have Christian Watson (hamstring) and Romeo Doubs is questionable due to a knee injury. That could lead to extra opportunities for Jones, who is a proven commodity in the passing game. Don’t be surprised if Jones is one of the top two target earners for Green Bay this weekend.
Last year, Jones dropped 30.5 points on the Bears in Week 2 with 170 total yards and two TDs. That is the type of ceiling we are talking about in this game fore the hyper-efficient veteran back.
I have Jones higher than any other Fantasy Life ranker this weekend as my RB12.
RB - Brian Robinson (Commanders) vs. Cardinals
If you aren’t starting Robinson this week, why exactly did you draft him?
The Commanders’ lead early-down back is favored by a TD at home against the consensus worst team in the NFL, who just so happened to be rather horrendous against opposing RBs last season:
- Cardinals rush yards per attempt allowed: 4.5 (tied for No. 21)
- Explosive run-play rate allowed: 15% (No. 29)
- PPR points per game allowed to RBs: 28.8 (No. 29)
That was with guys like JJ Watt, Isaiah Simmons, Byron Murphy, and Markus Golden; it won’t be surprising if the “motivated” 2023 version of this Cardinals defense is even worse.
Dec 24, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) runs with the football during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Regarding Robinson’s porous efficiency numbers last season:
- Give the man a little bit of slack; he was recovering from a gunshot wound, after all.
- The underwhelming performances weren’t enough for the Commanders to demote him last year, and the only new addition (sixth-round RB Chris Rodriguez) wasn’t involved with the starters during preseason action.
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Robinson turn 20-plus touches into triple-digit yards and multiple TDs.
Don’t be afraid to make a habit of playing fantasy assets of all shapes and sizes against this sad excuse for an NFL football team.
RB - James Cook (Bills) vs. Jets
Cook doesn’t draw a great matchup with the Jets on Monday Night, but the market hasn’t caught up with the underlying upside of his new role.
With Devin Singletary and Nyheim Hines no longer in the picture, the second-year back is a near lock to handle all of the passing down work on a pass-first offense without a high-end No. 2 weapon.
While he disappointed in the playing-time department as a rookie, Cook’s limited sample mirrored what we saw from him in college.
- Missed Tackles Forced: 21% (RB1-worthy)
- Yards After Contact: 3.02 (RB1-worthy)
- Explosive Rush Rate: 14% (RB1-worthy)
- Targets Per Route Run: 26% (RB1-worthy)
We should expect Damien Harris to remain involved and maybe even steal some of the short-yardage work, but Cook dominated first-team reps this preseason, garnering 74% of the snaps.
Even if Cook falls short of 50% of the work on the ground, he should still have enough juice in the passing attack to squeeze out a top-24 finish. If his preseason utilization is an indicator of a growing role, he has top-12 upside in Week 1.
While the Jets' defense is one of the better units in the NFL, the Bills still carry a top-10 team total and project for the seventh-most TDs in our model.
Cook is my RB19 for Week 1. Let’s go y’all.
RB - Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) at Chargers
Mostert is 31 years old and unlikely to stay healthy for the entire campaign—but he’s healthy this week, and No. 2 RB Jeff Wilson (midsection/finger, IR) isn’t, so Mostert could see an expanded workload, especially since he should be fresh at the beginning of the season.
Jan 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) celebrates gaining yardage against the New York Jets during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
With 5.4 yards per carry for his career, he’s a playmaking back who can still produce (1,093 yards from scrimmage last year).
The Chargers in 2022 were No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.038), SR (44.8%), and DVOA (6.68%), and the Dolphins are 8-8 ML (29.8% ROI) and 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI) as underdogs with QB Tua Tagovailoa.
WR: Michael Thomas (Saints) vs. Titans
Thomas was dominant in his 2019 Offensive Player of the Year campaign with an NFL-record 149 receptions, but he has played just 12 games (including playoffs) since because of ankle and foot injuries.
Even so, he was productive in his two full games last year with 11-122-3 receiving on 17 targets (three within the 10-yard line), and he’s healthy right now (presumably).
The Titans last year were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (23.9 FPPG).
TE: Gerald Everett (Chargers) vs. Dolphins
Everett is my pick to be featured on the cover of Week 2 waiver wire articles *if* new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore hands him the same sort of every-down route rate that was on the table for Dalton Schultz over the years.
Dec 18, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett (7) runs with a ball during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Consider the difference in games with a snap rate north of 80% between Everett and Moore’s former No. 1 TE Dalton Schultz:
- Everett: 0
Schultz: 11
Everett was the TE10 in PPR points per game last season if you include playoff statistics for everyone.
Yes, the Chargers’ passing game is crowded enough to leave Everett as the likely No. 4 pass-game option.
Also yes, Chargers-Dolphins carries the highest game total left in Week 1, and Miami was one of just three defenses to allow 15-plus PPR points per game to opposing TEs last season.
With so many injuries impacting the position recently: Don’t be afraid to take a chance on a full-time baller inside one of the game’s most lethal passing attacks.
