I couldn’t think of a better time these two teams could meet.
Both are sitting at the top of their divisions. January football is (almost) a foregone conclusion. And yet, we’ve got questions about both squads.
The 49ers entered their bye with three straight losses. Seemingly cursed, the same defense that held the first three QBs they faced to 9.2 PPG gave up back-to-back +20-point performances headed into their break. And Brock Purdy has turned the ball over at least once in three straight games.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ passing game is still a work in progress. Trevor Lawrence has been surgical in the short and intermediate areas of the field but hasn’t consistently threatened secondaries with the deep ball. But if San Francisco’s offense gets back on track, we might see the aggressive Trevor back in action.
49ers Week 10 Outlook
On the 49ers’ side, let’s have a discourse about Purdy. By generally accepted metrics, he’s still up there with the best.
- EPA per Play: 1st
- Completion Percentage Over Expected: 10th
- Adjusted Completion Percentage: T-3rd
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt: 1st
The first two metrics mostly sum up his game. However, for fantasy purposes, we need QBs to answer two questions affirmatively:
- Can you be efficient on a down-to-down basis?
- Are you pushing the ball downfield?
Generally, if you’re doing both, then the fantasy points will come. And, with Purdy, he’s one of the best at doing either.
Before you ask, yes, I used the full season in this chart. But if you zoom into the last three weeks, Purdy’s rank in success rate and air yards per attempt drops to 5th. Plus, his 8.9% scramble rate has also been top 5. And with the Jaguars allowing the sixth-highest passing success rate (49.3%), the positive environment enables the rest of the San Francisco passing game.
Christian McCaffrey managers should be the most excited for this matchup. Just three weeks ago, Alvin Kamara earned a ludicrous 14 targets and put up 91 yards as a receiver alone. But with the Colts’ RBs combining for 13 looks and Najee Harris amassing 42 yards through the air, McCaffrey’s 21.8-point projection may seem kind of light. But then again, he’ll have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to contend with for production.
Samuel looks on track to return, bringing some normalcy back to the offense. Samuel hasn’t been a healthy, consistent contributor in two consecutive games since September. In the meantime, Aiyuk took the WR1 mantle, George Kittle had his mandatory big game to last him the rest of the season, and CMC continued to be CMC.
Aiyuk has had a 29.5% target share since Week 4 and averaged 3.25 YPRR over the span (third-most among all WRs). Samuel rejoining the lineup should cast some doubt on Aiyuk maintaining that level of usage. And, given how often Purdy looked to Deebo, it’s a fair expectation.
In Weeks 1-3, Samuel led the team in targets and air yards. And, of course, he was still lining up in the backfield, averaging 2.7 carries per game. Plus, with such a high volume, it’s apparent how integral Samuel was (is) to the passing game. But when looking at additional game situations, there’s no question about his status amongst the WRs if he’s on the field:
- When Purdy’s pressured: 38.7% target share (1st)
- Red-zone targets: 33.3% (1st)
- Deep targets: 42.9% (1st)
Facing the Jaguars' secondary is a dream scenario for folks rostering Samuel. Let’s say in his first game back, he matches his floor of 23.0% of the looks from Purdy. Jacksonville has faced seven WRs with a similar or higher workload, and they’ve averaged 19.2 PPR PPG. Three of the seven have cracked the century mark (Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman, and Tank Dell), and four found the paint. If Samuel is fully healthy, he’ll easily beat his top-12 projection on Sunday.
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Jaguars Week 10 Outlook
On the Jacksonville side, let’s start in a similar spot as we did for the 49ers.
No, I’m not worried about Lawrence. The offensive line has taken a step back, and his knee injury (sustained in Week 6) has reduced some of his pocket mobility. But it’s not like either issue has schematically changed how he approaches the game.
By the same chart we used to praise Purdy, you’ll find Lawrence well above the league average in success rate. But, like I mentioned in the intro, the deep passing game hasn’t materialized.
The result has been a ‘death by a 1000 cuts’ approach, which has been great for Christian Kirk. On the season, Jacksonville’s slot man has the same number of targets as Mike Evans (60). Kirk’s 21.7% TPRR is greater than D.J. Moore’s and Terry McLaurin’s. And while the opportunity has kept Kirk in the WR2 conversation, it’s left Calvin Ridley out of the WR1 discussion we expected him to be in during the preseason.
But it’s not for lack of trying. Ridley leads the team with a 39.5% air yard share. But he’s primarily been used on the perimeter. However, in Week 8, Ridley’s slot rate hit a season-high (16.4%), and he ran more routes over the middle of the field.
Accordingly, Lawrence hit his third-highest rate of attempts to the middle (45.2%), and it’s where Kirk Cousins (64.3%) and Joe Burrow 62.5%) found most of their success against San Francisco. So, while a short, quick-passing approach makes the most sense and would favor Kirk, Ridley’s increased usage going into the bye might be a sign of things to come in Week 10.
Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence (16) hands the ball off to Travis Etienne Jr. (1) during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on October 29, 2023. Credit: Michael Longo/For USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
But let’s talk about the bigger development in the Jaguars’ offense: Travis Etienne’s usage. Coming into the season, Jacksonville drafting Tank Bigsby put the second-year rusher’s RB1 role in doubt. However, Etienne has not only kept the backups off the field, he’s expanded his skillset as a receiver.
- Rushing Share: 61.0% (2022), 67.1% (2023)
- Route Rate: 49.5%, 63.1%
- Target Share: 7.1%, 13.0%
- TPRR: 12.7%, 17.5%
There are only seven RBs with more than 60.0% of their team’s carries, and Etienne has the second-highest target share of that elite group. Coincidentally, his pass-game usage may be his saving grace against the 49ers.
San Francisco has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and has given up four rushing TDs all season. Even worse, only three starting RBs have turned in top-12 results. However, all three earned multiple targets (Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, and Kareem Hunt) along with the carries from inside the 10-yard line to get them into the end zone. So, despite the defensive matchup favoring a pass-first approach, Etienne’s role as a receiver and rusher should keep him in the top-12 discussion for Week 10.
