Week 11 Matchup of the Week. Cardinals @ Texans Breakdown.
The idea of a game between the Cardinals and Texans being appointment viewing wouldn’t have made sense back in August.
Heck, it wouldn’t have made sense about a month ago.
In fact, as of two weeks ago, we might have seen this matchup as Clayton Tune going up against a rising star in C.J. Stroud. Luckily, the football gods are on our side for Week 11.
Kyler Murray made his 2023 debut on Sunday and met the hype of his comeback video posted just days beforehand. And for Stroud, we’re past the discussion of him as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s time to talk about his legitimacy as the MVP. But with both showing out, there’s bound to be some fantasy value when the two collide. So, let’s see who’s worth a roster spot (or spot start) for Week 11.
Cardinals Week 11 Outlook
For Arizona, it’s best to start with how Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing adjusted the offense with Murray back on the field.
I’m ignoring Week 9 since Gannon subjecting Tune to the Browns’ defense is an OSHA violation. Regardless, the Cardinals’ dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate did pick up when compared to Josh Dobbs’s final three starts. However, he’s still knocking off the rust.
The glass-half-full report is that Murray’s 10.4 aDOT was his highest single-game mark since Week 14 of 2021. With more passing volume relative to the previous weeks, it’d be prudent to roster options outside of Marquise Brown if Kyler continues to sling it to the intermediate parts of the field. But his passing chart from Next Gen Stats gives us the glass-half-empty side of the story.
Murray only threw for 55 air yards on his completed passes to WRs. His reliance on short-area throws brought Rondale Moore back into fantasy relevancy, as the diminutive receiver led the team in target share (25.8%). In PPR formats, Moore’s 29.6% TPRR (second-highest rate this season) has WR3 appeal.
And with Marquise Brown right behind Moore in air-yard share (21.0%), Murray’s WRs are well positioned to take on the Texans’ secondary, who just let up big plays to Ja’Marr Chase (6-124-1) and Tyler Boyd (12-117-0) in Week 10. But everyone’s real focus is on the Cardinals’ TE.
Trey McBride now has a target share of 25.0% or more in three straight games. Since Week 8, he’s second in TPRR (33.3%) and YPRR (2.95). Only George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson have more receiving yards. Our rankers have McBride back in the top 12 again this week, and with his volume and QB upgrade, he’ll likely remain there for the rest of the season.
However, the Cardinals’ offense will need more than just an efficient passing game. Since their bye, the Texans are fifth in average yards (37.9) and EPA (0.6) per drive. Arizona will need another element of their offense to keep pace, and luckily, their best rusher also returned in Week 10.
After working through a knee injury that kept him out for the previous month, James Conner took 16 of the 19 RB totes on Sunday. He played 38 snaps, while Keaontay Ingram and Tony Jones combined for half that amount. Undoubtedly, this is Conner’s backfield. But something was missing from his workload.
Conner averaged 4.0 targets per game with Kyler last season. Murray targeted the position at a league-average rate (19.3%), but it boosted Conner’s touch floor. Regardless, Murray didn’t look Conner’s way at all last Sunday.
- Route Rate: 47.1% (Weeks 1-4), 38.9% (Week 10)
- Target Share: 8.3%, 0.0%
- TPRR: 15.6%, 0.0%
A potential explanation: the team didn’t want Conner exposed to additional contact. It was his first game back, plus Moore and McBride operate in the same area. And it’s not like Conner had any competition for targets from his peers.
Conner ran the most routes (Ingram – 7, Jones – 3), and neither of the other RBs got an attempt thrown their way. But against Houston, we should see Murray get back to using Conner as a receiver.
The Texans rank 8th in EPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed. They’re yet to give up a 100-yard game to a rusher in a single contest but rank 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. And just looking at the top 4 performers against Houston, Conner’s path to an RB1 finish becomes clear.
- Rachaad White: 27.9 (PPR points), 20 (carries), 4 (targets)
- Zack Moss: 20.7, 18, 4
- Travis Etienne: 17.8, 18, 5
- Alvin Kamara: 17.4, 18, 8
Conner already commands the short-yardage and inside-the-five carries based on his usage last week. All we need is for his receiving work to return, and he’ll outkick his mid-range RB2 ranking in Week 11.
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Texans Week 11 Outlook
For the Texans, there’s not much else to say about Stroud.
He has the second-most passing yards on the season. Stroud is right behind Patrick Mahomes in EPA per play. At 7.5, he leads the league in TD to INT ratio. The next closest is Russell Wilson at 4.5. The gap between Stroud and Wilson is the same gap dividing Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence ranks 21st in the same metric.
Nov 5, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) makes a touchdown reception during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
So, starting Stroud is a no-brainer. And really, which of his pass-catchers to roster isn’t much of a question either.
Tank Dell has been the WR1 over the last three weeks, with Nico Collins sidelined in Week 10. Dell’s 40.1% air yards share dwarfs the other pass-catching options by a 16-point margin. But Noah Brown has been the WR2 Houston needed and then some.
Brown made the critical catch and powered through two tackles to set the Texans up for the winning field goal against Cincinnati. But even before that, the former Cowboy was a menace. Despite running the third-most routes of the primary options, Brown had 5.21 YPRR on eight targets. He averaged 24.6 yards per catch.
Between the two, Stroud has more than enough to face the Cardinals’ secondary. And with Devin Singletary hitting season-high marks in rushing efficiency, Stroud has the potential for another big day in Week 11.
