Sunday’s early games were yet another reminder of how chaotic the NFL can be. We (or it could just be me) walk into the weekend armed with projections and the hot take or two, confident in our knowledge. And, about 30 minutes after kickoff, the players casually toss our analysis out the window.
So, let’s regroup.
We learned more about each squad over the weekend. A few guys popped off in the boxscore, and some underlying trends caught my eye while sifting through the data. As a result, I’ve got the top waiver adds for Week 11 to help you reset your roster.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
Injury Round-Up
- Chargers
- Gerald Everett (back)
- Falcons
- Taylor Heinicke (hamstring)
- Vikings
- Alexander Mattison (head)
Waiver Claims
The List
- Brandin Cooks
- Devin Singletary
- Keaton Mitchell
- Ty Chandler
- Noah Brown
Stash: Elijah Mitchell
RB
Devin Singletary, Texans
Devin Singletary has had the Texans’ backfield to himself over the last two weeks. He’s carried the ball 43 times. Mike Boone is the only other Houston RB to earn a touch. And that’s all he has had: one carry.
Nov 12, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Houston Texans running back Devin Singletary (26) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
On Sunday, Singletary averaged 3.87 adjusted yards after contact per attempt. It’s the highest mark of any Texans’ RB this season. He’s also hit rushing success rates of 46.7% (Week 10) and 50.0% (Week 8). Pierce has been over 45.0% just twice.
Singletary adds nothing as a receiver (6 targets, 0.43 YPRR). But on an offense averaging the fifth-most yards per drive in the league since their bye, all he needs is the workload, which he has until Pierce returns.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 25%
Keaton Mitchell, Ravens
Keaton Mitchell’s hamstring injury likely kept fantasy gamers from starting him on Sunday. And just four touches in a competitive game against the Browns isn’t very inspiring. However, his peripherals are worth making him a priority add.
Despite the injury, he only played two fewer snaps than Justice Hill. Plus, Mitchell doubled his touch count (four to two). This usage suggests that Mitchell would be ahead of Hill if fully healthy. Additionally, the rookie (two targets) and Gus Edwards (one) were the only RBs involved in the passing game, a role typically reserved for Hill.
We already know about Mitchell’s explosive ability. He just needs more work to boost his floor. And, with his usage in Week 10, he’s moved into the RB2 role with a chance to be the 1B on Thursday night.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 18%
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Ty Chandler, Vikings
Alexander Mattison’s concussion automatically brings Ty Chandler into fantasy relevancy. But his usage through three quarters — while Mattison was still healthy — already caught my eye.
Chandler split the RB carries with Mattison (eight to eight) while running a route on 25.7% of Josh Dobbs’ dropbacks. Even if Mattison had stayed healthy, his passing-game usage (one target) might have given fantasy managers some hope for Week 11. But I don’t remember Kevin O’Connell drawing up plays like these for Mattison in the past.
Chandler’s 50.0% rushing success rate and 0.04 EPA per rush through three quarters highlighted his speed and efficiency. Assuming Mattison has to rest a week, he’ll likely get worked into a passing game that finished top 12 in yards per drive despite their third change at QB.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Rico Dowdle’s 12 carries to Tony Pollard’s 15 looks bad. Dowdle’s rushing TD, as Pollard hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, looks even worse. And, honestly, Dallas’ blowout win doesn’t cover up the notion that Dowdle could see more work.
Sure, half of his carries (and the TD) came in the final quarter on Sunday. But Dowdle still had 28.6% of the RB carries in the three beforehand. He mixed in on short-yardage and also had a red-zone tote. The workload alone isn’t enough to dissuade us from keeping Pollard as the RB1. But the results might.
Dowdle had the same number of explosive runs (two) on half as many carries as Pollard. Plus, Dallas’s RB2 was the more efficient rusher in every category. The only issue is he only ran one route, but his speed (on an already big-play offense) should put him on fantasy radars with favorable matchups over the next three weeks.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 1%
Stash: Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
San Francisco has won by more than two scores in four games before Sunday. Elijah Mitchell was active for two of them (Weeks 1 and 3). When the fourth quarter came in those contests, he split carries with Jordan Mason (seven touches to Mason’s three).
However, things changed against Jacksonville. It was all Mitchell with 68.4% of the snaps and 58.3% of the team’s rushing attempts (they were trying to get CMC the TD record). With some signal Mitchell’s regained his RB2 role, he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%
WR
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
At first glance, it’s tough to look at Brandin Cooks’ boxscore and discern what’s repeatable.
Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, Cooks’ role looked like it was diminishing. His target share dropped from 11.8% in Week 8 to 4.5%. He earned just 5.7% of the team’s air yards in what was a competitive game against the Eagles. So, a ten-target outburst against a Giants’ defense looking to 2024 looks flukey. However, there’s a bit more to his big day.
Nov 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks (3) stiff arms New York Giants safety Xavier McKinney (29) in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
While Dak Prescott was still on the field (up until the fourth quarter), it was Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and no one else (at least out of the WRs). The duo had 10 and 12 targets, respectively. The rest of the WRs? They combined for five. Michael Gallup, for all the hype around his resurgence, only accounted for 10.7% of the air yards. Cooks had three times as many.
Cooks emerging as the WR2 couldn’t come at a better time. Dallas has had a positive DBOE rate over their last month of games, and Prescott leads the league in yards. With a favorable schedule heading into the fantasy playoffs (Carolina, Washington, Seattle), Cooks is a viable starter.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 23%
Noah Brown, Texans
Like the Mitchell recommendation, I’ll contextualize Noah Brown’s situation coming into Week 10.
Brown led the team in slot routes (65.2% snap rate) in Week 9. But Robert Woods’ return (42.9% slot rate over the first six weeks) created an uncertain workload. However, Brown clearly separated from Bobby Trees on Sunday.
- Target Share: 20.5% (Brown), 7.7% (Woods)
- Air Yard Share: 28.3%, 6.2%
- Route Rate: 80.5%, 63.4%
- TPRR: 24.2%, 11.5%
- Red-Zone Target Share: 10.0%, 20.0%
Brown’s six explosive plays and 6.4 YAC per reception set up the game-winning FG for the Texans. And with Nico Collins still sidelined, we should grab as many options attached to C.J. Stroud as possible.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
Elijah Moore, Browns
Deshaun Watson aired it out downfield in his Week 9 return. The approach helped out Amari Cooper (52.9% air yard share) and Marquise Goodwin (38.0 air yards per target, second-most WR targets) but left Elijah Moore in the cold with a 7.1% TPRR. But the opportunity winds shifted in his favor on Sunday.
Not only did Moore notch the second-most looks for the Browns’ WRs (seven), but his 21.9% share was his highest mark since Week 3. It was also his third time all season with more than one red-zone target while also getting looks downfield. Moore’s 35.5% slot rate will serve him well in Week 11 as they’ll face the Steelers, who just allowed a 5-84-1 stat line from Green Bay’s interior WR.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 6%
Jayden Reed, Packers
Green Bay has run fewer plays with three WRs on the field over the last two weeks. As a result, Jayden Reed’s route rates have fallen to a paltry 46.7% and 57.1%. But it hasn’t stopped him from being a factor in the offense.
He was second in targets on a per-route basis amongst the WRs in Week 9, and his 20.8% TPRR on Sunday led the passing game. Reed tied for the most looks on third and fourth down and earned the second-most attempts thrown his way in the red zone.
Jordan Love is still coming into his own as a QB. But Green Bay’s yards and EPA per drive had steadily risen over the last three weeks. With stable usage for Reed, we can at least trust him on our benches again.
