My case for this game as the Matchup of the Week was simple.
It’ll decide who wins the division. Well, it likely will.
A win for Jacksonville would put them at 4-1 in the division, and projections have them favored in four of their remaining six games. Trevor Lawrence still has an uphill battle in the “he’s overrated” debate, but we saw enough of his talent last week to keep believing if they get a win on Sunday.
But if the Texans win? Just give C.J. Stroud the MVP award right then (I’m kinda kidding).
Houston would have the same overall record (7-4) and a half-game back on the Jaguars in the division standings. Plus, they’d be giving points in the rest of their regular-season contests. We’d see the Texans in the playoffs for the first time since 2019. But let’s get through this matchup first before we start talking about January football.
Jaguars Week 12 Outlook
Lawrence played his best game in Week 11. And I’m not being hyperbolic. His 0.49 EPA per play was a career-high mark. The team averaged 1.9 EPA per drive, a franchise-high since Jacksonville drafted Lawrence. And, before you ask, their 47.8 yards per drive ranks the fourth-most over the last five seasons.
So, yes, Lawrence played his best game. But from a high level, it doesn’t look much different than the others.
Lawrence took his second-fewest dropbacks of the season in Week 11 (35). However, since the Titans only pressured him at a 25.7% rate (third-lowest this year), Lawrence could attack downfield. At 9.5 air yards per attempt, he shattered his season average coming into the game by 2.6 air yards. And while Lawrence’s aggression worked out for Calvin Ridley, it had an unintended effect. The Jags’ QB1 was aggressive…all the time.
Lawrence came into the game with a 4.9% designed rushing rate. It was up to 7.9% with two scrambles. He bogarted four red-zone totes from Travis Etienne (two of which turned into TDs) and kept Jacksonville’s RB1 from having a solid day. And Lawrence taking shots downfield did include RBs but to their special teams RB D’Ernest Johnson. Again, not Etienne.
During the first half, while the game was close, Etienne handled 71.4% of the team’s carries and earned an 11.1% target share. There’s no threat to his workload. And against the Texans’ defense, he may be the key to keeping the offense moving.
Rachaad White needed 46 receiving yards (on four catches) to crest 20.0 PPR points against the Texans in Week 9, and 60.9% of Alvin Kamara’s 17.4-point day in Week 6 came from his usage as a receiver. After a tough out against the 49ers and a dud in a big win, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll get back to averaging the third-most points amongst all RBs. But against a defense ranked 12th in generating pressure, Lawrence will have to look in the short area of the field, which will benefit his RB1.
But the big question will be about Calvin Ridley and his seemingly pop-up performance last week. As I mentioned before, Lawrence didn’t attempt more passes, but the lack of pressure allowed him to look downfield. Plus, his 26.3% play-action rate was the highest it had been since Week 6. So OC Press Taylor had Lawrence on the move more often. The same was the case for Ridley.
Initially, I liked the idea of Zay Jones being back as a reason for Ridley getting back in our good graces. Less defensive attention and more intermediate routes for the WR1. Subjectively, this made sense. But I’ll pose an even simpler idea: finding creative ways to get him the ball independent of who’s on the field. (OK, maybe it’s not that simple.)
Next Gen Stats lays it out for us. While we were happy in Week 5 (with Zay on the field), the game plan for Ridley was “please win for us.” He played from the slot on 8.6% of his snaps and worked out of bunched/stacked formations on 11 of his 70 plays. Luckily, that changed against the Titans.
- Slot Rate: 13.6% (Weeks 1-10), 25.5% (Week 11)
- Stacked/Bunched Set Rate: 22.5%, 43.6%
Taylor deployed his WR1…like a WR1. His 25.5% slot rate was a season-high, with his closest being 18.4% the week prior. And luckily, we’ve seen WR1s from the interior find their way into the end zone against Houston. Zay or nay Zay, proper scheming can get the best out of the best. And Jacksonville will need the best out of Ridley to keep their hold on the AFC South.
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Texans Week 12 Outlook
For the Texans, we’ve now seen C.J. Stroud throw at least one interception in back-to-back games. But, of course, I’m not worried.
- Passing Success Rate (Weeks 10-11): 52.5% (third amongst all passers – min. 30 dropbacks)
- EPA per play: 0.10 (7th)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 11.0 (2nd)
Similar to my quick detour about Brock Purdy a couple of weeks ago, Stroud’s still hitting all of the right levers for fantasy. He’s efficient on a down-to-down basis, still hitting big plays while taking risks (EPA per play takes his interceptions into account) and driving the ball downfield. If any of these data points were outside of the top 12, then we’d have room to worry. But Houston is still operating at a similar clip since their bye.
Accordingly, Tank Dell has been able to continue his rampage through defensive secondaries. After taking a week to get back up to speed from a concussion, Dell’s 28.1% target share leads the Texans’ pass-catchers. He’s accrued 584 air yards since Week 8. No one else has more than 300. He’s locked into starting rosters, but Nico Collins’s return should put him back on fantasy managers' radars.
The Texans’ perimeter WR earned the most looks from Stroud against the Cardinals in Week 11 (11 targets). With a healthy 32.4% TPRR (first on the squad), Collins and Stroud looked like they hadn’t missed a beat. Jacksonville’s defense has been tough on WRs in the past, but it is their weakness relative to how well they stop the run.
Top WR performances against the Jags have varied by archetype, but there’s some overlap with Collins’s skillset:
- Week 3, Dell: 25.5 (PPR points), 23.5% (slot rate), 19.4 (air yards per target)
- Week 5, Stefon Diggs: 24.1, 25.5%, 16.6
- Week 1, Michael Pittman: 23.7, 23.9%, 6.6
- Week 5, Gabe Davis: 22.0, 24.5%, 13.9
Three of the four were downfield threats. All rotated inside so they could access the deeper parts of the field. Luckily, Collins played 15.7% of his snaps from the inside in his first game back. So while the environment sets up for another big game from the rookie, Collins’s usage and rapport with his QB should net him WR2 value for Week 12.
