Based on the drama alone, I couldn’t avoid this game as the best matchup on Sunday.
Deebo Samuel thinks James Bradberry is trash. And he had no regrets about the offseason comment.
Philadelphia Eagles? With the fifth-fewest penalties called on them and their opponents having the third-most, more like the Refereagles. (I have no dog in this fight, but that’s a solid burn of a nickname. 10/10).
Regardless, there are too many storylines to count coming into this contest outside of the players jawing at each other. From Philly clinching a playoff spot with a win to the 49ers getting their revenge from last year’s playoff game (and setting the table for a rematch sometime in January), there’s much to discuss. But for our purposes, let’s focus on where the fantasy production will come from for both squads.
49ers Week 13 Outlook
For the 49ers, it’s as if those three straight losses didn’t happen. Since their Week 9 bye, they’ve won by more than 10 points in all three games. And while the results have obviously been better, it’s not like the 49ers’ offense has been schematically different.
Brock Purdy’s dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate has fluctuated due to his passing game’s efficiency. His 11.0% CPOE since the bye ranks first among all starters (he’s second zooming out to the full season), and his primary pass-catchers are averaging 6.9 yards after the catch. Pinpoint accuracy and receivers with juice are a lethal combo. And at least one of the 49ers’ WRs isn’t just winning with speed.
Simply put, Brandon Aiyuk is in a league of his own.
There are 17 WRs with a YPRR over 2.0. Aiyuk has the second-best efficiency mark at 3.22, right behind Tyreek Hill. Hill has 120 targets. Aiyuk has 65. And even with Deebo Samuel back, there hasn’t been much concern about the fourth-year receiver generating yards. We’ve now had two consecutive games with Samuel playing over 75.0% of the snaps, and Aiyuk still looks like the better option to roster:
- Air Yard Share (Weeks 11 and 12): 33.9% (Samuel), 24.1% (Aiyuk)
- YPRR: 3.38, 2.49
And with Philadelphia getting cooked by receivers, we could see both finding the paint on Sunday.
Samuel’s work out of the backfield in the red zone will always make him a real and fantasy weapon. But it’ll be Aiyuk’s efficiency that’ll get them there. And don’t worry about Christian McCaffrey. Even against the Eagles’ front, CMC has earned five or more targets in four straight games and handled all but one red-zone carry since their bye.
With this offense moving at 36.2 yards per drive (fifth-most) over the last month of action, all three should be viable fantasy options in Week 13. But their TE may go overlooked with all of the drama, although his workload says otherwise.
While folks may be debating over Aiyuk and Samuel, George Kittle has been outworking both of them. Since the trio has been healthy and back on the field, the veteran TE has been Purdy’s primary hook-up in almost every scenario.
- Target Share (Weeks 11 and 12): 25.5% (1st)
- TPRR: 25.5% (1st)
- Third/Fourth Down: 20.0% (2nd)
- Red Zone: 27.3% (T-1st)
- Play-Action: 26.7% (T-2nd)
Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) carries the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Samuel’s return has widened Kittle’s usage on the field. Per PFF, he played just five snaps lined up wide from the formation. With Deebo back, he’s been on the outside on over 10.0% of his snaps in three straight games.
Along with a 20.5% slot rate, the former Iowa TE has been all over the field. Funnily enough, another alum from his college playing the same position put up the most points against the Eagles with a similar route tree.
Hockenson had Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and K.J. Osborn to keep him having to go to the perimeter often, but the seam balls and short-area crossers cooked the Eagles. And Kittle still has the juice to make it happen regardless of his pre-snap alignment. With Philadelphia’s interior defense still ceding yardage to inside receivers (allowed 120 yards and a score against Buffalo), Kittle has the opportunity and matchup to put up another TE1 performance in Week 13.
Eagles Week 13 Outlook
And for the Eagles, it’s fair to wonder how much fight they’ll have in them after an overtime win against the Bills last week. Luckily, the extra playtime didn’t equate to an excessive number of plays to fuel any concern.
Philadelphia executed a nine-play TD drive to end the game, bringing their total to 65. They’ve blown past that mark in five other matchups this season. And with Jalen Hurts and D’Andre Swift averaging 4.6 and 5.7 YPC in Week 12, Hurts managing just 200 passing yards is forgiveable. Besides, we’d rather the passing game get back to form in this matchup anyway.
San Francisco has yet to allow an RB to eclipse 100 yards in a single game, and only one rushing score has come from outside the 10-yard line (Kareem Hunt, Week 6). It won’t stop a tush-push TD from Hurts, but it’ll take some help from his WRs to get there. And there’s a “slim” chance you know which one will do the most damage.
With Dallas Goedert out, DeVonta Smith has consumed the TE’s opportunity and added it to his WR2 workload. After A.J. Brown went on a six-game rampage of 120 yards, fantasy managers with Arthur Juan on their roster were just happy to see him get a touchdown after he hasn’t hit the century mark since October. And compared to Smith’s share of the offense, it’s hard to see it happening this weekend:
- Target Share (Weeks 11 and 12): 32.7% (Smith), 26.5% (Brown)
- Air Yard Share: 60.6%, 31.4%
- TPRR: 24.2%, 20.0%
San Francisco has allowed 25 or more PPR points to the following WRs: Jordan Addison (31.3, Week 7), Puka Nacua (30.1, Week 2), Michael Wilson (26.6, Week 4), and Ja’Marr Chase (25.2, Week 8). All four had a slot rate of over 25.0%. Addison, Wilson, and Chase all scored from the interior. DeVonta’s slot rate has slid up to 38.3% from 20.1% with Goedert out.
Brown can (and will) always make a big play. Plus, he’s the co-leader of looks from Hurts in the red zone. However, if this matchup sets up better for either of the Eagles’ primary WRs, the nod goes to Smith for Week 13.
