I can already feel it coming.
We won’t be able to take our eyes away or cover our ears from it. Given the magnitude of this game, its strength will reverberate for what’ll seem like days on end. And by “it,” I mean the discourse after the clock hits all zeros in the fourth quarter.
Think about what you’ve heard and what you’ll hear leading up to the game.
“If Josh Allen wins, he should be the MVP front-runner.”
“If KC gets the dub, the AFC Championship game goes back to being called the Arrowhead Invitational.”
All those ifs will convert into sweeping proclamations about the future of each team. New memes will be born. It’ll be a glorious time. But before we get to all the social media fun, let’s sift through the tense matchup to set expectations for one of the biggest games of the year.
Buffalo Bills Week 14 Outlook
For Buffalo, it’s do-or-die time. And the heightened sense of urgency hasn’t been lost on Allen and the squad. Since switching OCs, they’ve scored more than 30 points in two consecutive games. Accordingly, we’ve seen more of the offense, which has been beneficial for fantasy purposes.
Granted, they had to go into overtime, but no team ran more plays over the two-game stretch heading into their bye. And, given the Chiefs’ defensive weakness, they’ll need Allen’s arm and legs at full strength to keep their playoff hopes alive.
In 12 games, Kansas City’s defense has allowed just three QB1 finishes (Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Love). Love used play-action on 40.0% of his dropbacks while creating explosives downfield. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Hurts put up 29 yards and a score on the ground with a 28.2% designed rushing rate.
Allen has attempted no fewer than five rushes over the last two games. And, because he can, Allen’s 137 yards on deep attempts over the same span are the sixth-most. The setup is there, but some might wonder about his top weapon’s ability to enable a big day for Allen.
Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a 100-yard game since October and has two scores in his last month of action. And typically, we’d look at his season-long stats and shrug our shoulders. He has top-12 marks in target share (29.5%) and TPRR (26.9%). He’ll be fine! But in the last few weeks, there’s been some competition for the top spot.
Nov 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) celebrates touchdown with quarterback Josh Allen (17) during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Gabe Davis has been first in air-yard and target share, along with the team lead in TPRR in two of the last three games. Coincidentally, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs combined for 96 yards and a score on seven targets from the perimeter. As Khalil Shakir takes away slot reps (71.1% snap rate from the interior) and shots downfield, Diggs’s hold on the WR1 spot isn’t as secure as it was in years past. And, to make matters worse, the players vying to bogart some of his workload aren’t even limited to the WR position.
Buffalo’s backfield has been a point of consternation all season. We all thought James Cook would ascend into an RB1 role, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together. The sophomore rusher has the fourth-most explosive plays but ranks 35th out of 39 qualifying RBs in forced missed tackle rate. However, he has a shot to redeem himself against the Chiefs.
Despite living on less than half of the snaps, Cook touched the ball 20 or more times in the two games before their bye. Latavius Murray has still taken the majority of the short-yardage carries, and Cook’s retained the base-down work. And, more importantly, he’s been the passing-down RB. Since Week 8, his targets per route run rate has steadily increased from 4.0% to 39.0% against the Eagles.
In their comeback effort, it’s not just the fact that Cook was third in targets ahead of Dalton Kincaid and any of the ancillary options. Cook was Allen’s safety valve. When No. 17 was under duress, he looked the RB's way more than anyone else on the team (twice as often as Diggs). And Kansas City still ranks eighth in pressure rate.
However, they might be down a couple of defenders, and the top 3 rushers to face KC averaged four targets apiece. With Cook’s usage on the rise, he’s one of the keys to Buffalo’s success and continued playoff hopes in Week 14.
Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Outlook
For the Chiefs, I’ll reserve judgment until I see their first two drives before I start to worry.
Against the Eagles, Patrick Mahomes hit a season-high 43 pass attempts. But Isiah Pacheco hit his 2023 max touch count against the Packers on Sunday. Andy Reid planning for and adjusting to his opponent wouldn’t be breaking news. But then again, it makes rostering pieces of the offense a difficult proposition.
Actually, what makes things difficult is a lack of production. Well, at least a drop in output relative to years past. The Chiefs had ranked top three in average yards per drive for the last five seasons. Now, they’re tenth since their bye (33.2 YPD). So, they’re a good offense and not an elite one. Luckily, good is, well, good enough to get past the Bills’ defense after all of their injuries.
While our DvP tool has Buffalo as a tough matchup for WRs, they surrendered top-12 results in two of their last four games. But still, we’re only considering one of the KC receivers in our starting lineups this late in the season.
Coming out of the bye, Rashee Rice has run a route on over 60.0% of Mahomes’s dropbacks in back-to-back games. It’s something the rookie hadn’t done all season. However, on top of getting more cardio, he’s also earned more looks from Mahomes. He’s topped a 30.0% target share in both contests. And while Rice isn’t a polished route runner yet, his deployment from the slot and short aDOT allows him to work after the catch and pick up more yards.
But Buffalo’s main concern should be the Chiefs’ rushing attack. And not just Pacheco. Mahomes has generated the fourth-most EPA of any QB on scrambles alone. But the rusher out of Rutgers has an underrated workload in a Mahomes-led offense.
Without Jerick McKinnon in the last two games, Pacheco’s rushing share kicked up over 75.0%. But the second-year runner hasn’t absorbed just McKinnon’s two-minute and green-zone touches. Pacheco also has the receiving usage, too.
He’s now had target shares over 10.0% in two straight games. Combined with his carries, he has the utilization of a top-5 RB. And with playmakers like Travis Kelce (who’s still at a 20.8% target rate since the bye) to keep the chains moving, Pacheco will have another chance at a multi-score outing in Week 14.
