The last five days of football action felt like a conventional week. We got big performances out of most of our top players. There was an upset or two. Five games topped 50 points.

But this isn’t the time for our usual approach to waivers. For most leagues, it’s the final game of the regular season. Usually, we’re making pick-ups to plan for the future. But for some fantasy managers, it’s now or never.

So, keeping some of the injury storylines in mind, I’ve got the top waiver adds for Week 14.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

Injury Round-Up

  • Cardinals
    • Marquise Brown (heel)
  • Browns
    • Amari Cooper (head)
  • Texans
    • Tank Dell (leg)
  • Patriots
    • Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)
  • Saints
    • Derek Carr (shoulder, head)
  • Commanders
    • Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring)

Waiver Claims

The List

  1. Tyjae Spears
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. Roschon Johnson
  4. Noah Brown
  5. Elijah Moore

RB

Holdovers from Week 13

I’ve talked about these guys in past weeks, but to keep it thorough with the playoffs, I’ll re-list them here with a quick thought or two as to why they’re worth an add:

  • Roschon Johnson: he jumped to team lead in carries in Week 12 with D’Onta Foreman out; he also earned five targets heading into their bye.

Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots

If I were to tell you a backup RB got this amount of work after the starter got injured, we’d empty the clip to pick up the healthy option:

  • Team Rushing Share: 84.2% (no other RB got a carry)
  • Target Share: 27.8% (2nd on the team)

This rusher got 20 touches in just three quarters. And with a quick turnaround for TNF, his rule over the backfield is less likely to get challenged. There is only one problem: he plays for the Patriots.

Ezekiel Elliott took over for Rhamondre Stevenson after a hip-drop tackle claimed another victim. So, despite the unfortunate circumstances, the former Cowboy has the opportunity for high-end volume in a low-end situation. New England is averaging 26.4 yards per drive (25th-most) over the last month and snapped the ball 24 times in their opponent’s red zone (third-fewest). 

And with a tough out against the Steelers on Thursday (defense ranked top 12 in EPA per rush and success rate allowed over their last six games), all we can rely on is volume for the veteran RB.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 30%

Tyjae Spears, Titans

Derrick Henry’s practice participation will be the storyline for Tennessee’s offense. Henry handled 65.6% of the carries through the first three quarters on Sunday. However, after The King went down, Tyjae Spears fell into the role we envisioned for him at the start of the season.

Spears

Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears (32) is tackled by Indianapolis Colts safety Julian Blackmon (32) during the second quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023.

The Tulane product took all of the RB carries while tacking on two targets for a 15.4% share of the looks from Will Levis. Returning to our analysis of Spears’s collegiate production, he has the efficiency and explosiveness to operate as the team’s RB1 should Henry miss time. And against the Dolphins in Week 14, who just gave up 11.2 PPR points to Antonio Gibson, Spears should be at the top of our priorities.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 30%

Antonio Gibson, Commanders

At first, I thought Antonio Gibson’s situation (with Brian Robinson likely sidelined with a hamstring injury) would be similar to Spears. Gibson has been the primary ball carrier, with opportunities in the passing game. So, if Robinson can’t go in Week 15 (they’re on bye this week), we’d typically consider Gibson the guy to stash. But the Commanders’ backfield isn’t that simple:

  • RB Rushing Share: 50.0% (Gibson), 50.0% (Chris Rodriguez)
  • Short-Yardage: 60.0%, 40.0%
  • Two-Minute: 20.0%, 80.0%
  • Third/Fourth Down: 25.0%, 75.0%

Rodriguez pried enough touches away from Gibson to put a dent in his fantasy production. Gibson’s only edge was his opportunities in the passing game (four targets to Rodriguez’s zero), and Gibson got the nod in the red zone. So, while stashing Gibson makes sense, don’t overspend if you have FAAB left or make him your second or third addition to your priority list.

WR

Holdovers from Week 13

Again, we’ve still got a few WRs from the past few weeks that are still under the 50% roster rate threshold. 

  • Curtis Samuel: A second straight game with a target share of at least 20% (tied for the team lead in Week 13); highest air yard share of WAS WRs on Sunday
  • Odell Beckham Jr.: led BAL WRs in air yard share and TPRR despite coming into the game with an injured should and will have had two weeks to rest before playing in Week 14

Elijah Moore, Browns 

Let’s start with Elijah Moore’s situation.

With Joe Flacco under center, the Browns’ aerial attack saw the most passing attempts in any game all season. Flacco threw for 543 air yards. The next-closest mark was 395 by Deshaun Watson back in Week 2. Both marks are (usually) the ingredients for a fantasy-friendly passing game. We just needed most of them to go toward one player. And they did.

After Amari Cooper left for a concussion evaluation, Elijah Moore assumed the WR1 role. Since Moore and Flacco had spent time together in New York, the two reconnecting was a foregone conclusion. But Moore earning nine targets was the result of a perfect storm.

Moore

Oct 1, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore (8) runs with the ball in the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Moore’s 29.3% target share was the third-highest of any Browns’ WR this season, and he joined Cooper in cresting the 50.0% mark in air yards. With competitive matchups ahead (JAX, CHI, HOU), an aggressive passing game should keep Moore in the WR2/3 conversation, depending on Cooper’s Week 14 availability.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%

Jameson Williams, Lions

On the one hand, Jameson Williams is yet to run more than 70.0% of the routes in a single game this season. He hasn’t earned more than five targets in a game since Week 7 (he got six and caught none; not ideal). But there’s been a positive shift for the second-year WR over the last month.

He’s been over a 60.0% route rate in three straight games. And while Jared Goff has only looked his way a few times per game, a third of his targets have come in obvious passing situations. Over half of those specific attempts have gone for a first down. He has the highest first downs per target of any skill-position player on the squad since Week 10. 

So, he’s coming up with positive results for the team. Now, they’re at least testing out an expanded role for Williams with his rushing score against the Saints. If the team continues to get his speed involved in their offense, he’s worth an add for the playoffs.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%

Noah Brown, Texans

Simply put, it’ll be hard to replace Tank Dell. The diminutive rookie WR greatly impacted not just the Texans’ passing game but the league at large. Despite missing a game and playing in less than 50.0% of the snaps in two others, he was 10th in the league in explosive play rate and has a higher YPRR (2.22) than Stefon Diggs (2.15), Chris Olave (2.10), Ja’Marr Chase (2.06) – the kid’s going to be a star in the league when he returns.

Now, to figure out who will fill a (literal) Tank-sized void.

It was good to see John Metchie get involved in the three quarters after Dell left the field. His 29.5% air yard share bested Nico ‘I Can Catch 50-yard Bombs All Day’ Collins, but Metchie only ran a route on 48.0% of the team’s dropbacks. And, if I’m looking for anyone to recreate Dell’s explosive potential, I’ll look at Noah Brown.

Admittedly, Brown’s Week 13 usage looks weak. While running 98.2% of the routes, he only earned two targets in a competitive contest. His 6.7% TPRR was a season-low, and, of course, not catching anything doesn’t inspire much confidence.

However, Sunday was Brown’s first game back since rehabbing a knee injury that kept him out for two games. From Weeks 6 through 10, Brown led the team in targets with a 50.0% explosive play rate. Brown’s already shown a rapport with C.J. Stroud and will be one of the strongest options for the Texans (available for most fantasy managers on the wire) moving forward.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 25%

Waivers SEC