Week 15 Matchup of the Week. Cowboys @ Bills Breakdown.

At least for me, during all of the real-time hoopla of Kansas City turning the ball over on downs, Sean McDermott’s reaction was the best.

Most left Buffalo for dead, McDermott’s “motivational speech” over the bye week only added to the chaos, and a loss to Kansas City looked inevitable. So, you do, in fact, gotta hand it to them. But I doubt it was just the Bills’ HC breathing a sigh of relief on Sunday. It was (mostly) all of us.

Meaningful January football without Josh Allen is a dreary notion. We’ve already lost so many good starters that keeping a healthy one out would’ve felt like madness. But he’s still got a shot, even with another MVP candidate coming to town. So, let’s break down both squads from a fantasy perspective in Week 15’s matchup of the week.

Cowboys Week 15 Outlook

For Dallas, it’s not hard to see them putting up another 30-point outing. They’ve done it in six of their last seven games. But the impressive part, at least for fantasy purposes, is how Mike “I want to run the damn ball” McCarthy is letting his QB cook. 

Dak Prescott hasn’t thrown fewer than 30 times in a game since early October. He’s accounted for multiple touchdowns in every game since about the same time. As a result, we can roster a few extra Dallas skill players outside of his WR1.

But let’s give CeeDee Lamb his due for a bit. Since Week 8, there have been six WRs with a target share of over 30.0%. And only one has a YPRR over 2.5: Cedarian. He’s caught more than ten balls in over half of his last seven games. Plus, we’ve seen other WRs fitting Lamb’s archetype (DeVonta Smith 8-106-1, Davante Adams 8-84-1) find their way into the top 12. But again, with Prescott dropping back to pass over 30 times a game more often than not, Lamb is not the only one doing damage to opposing secondaries.

Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) celebrates during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Ferguson now sits as the TE8 on the season. But admittedly, there’s some flukiness to his fantasy production. While he’s generated explosives and has the second-highest first downs per target rate since the bye (46.7%), he has just an 11.3% air-yard share. 

So, is he efficient with what he’s earned? Absolutely. But he has the most targets from inside the 10-yard line of any TE this season (16). The next-closest of his brethren, Travis Kelce (who else?) has 9. His TD reliance is a product of his position, so we can’t and shouldn’t hold it against him. He’s getting money touches. Great! However, we’ve got at least one more primary part of the offense to consider, given the Bills’ defensive woes. 

Buffalo has only given up two RB1 finishes in their last four games. But they haven’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher since Week 4. Javonte Williams (4-31-1) and Breece Hall (5-50-1) got it done through the air. Coincidentally, Tony Pollard has seen five or more targets in the last four games. Rico Dowdle’s 25.6% share of the red-zone carries is a concern. But if you’re looking to lean on Pollard for a playoff win, he’s in the matchup to deliver.

Bills Week 15 Outlook

For Buffalo, the offensive game plan coming out of the bye was clear: Josh Allen must be Superman.

Sunday’s bout against the Chiefs was his fourth time over 40 passing attempts and the fifth time Allen’s dropback over expectation rate hit or exceeded 10.0%. However, most have struggled to find a weakness in the Cowboy’s ability to stop the run or pass.

Plus, for the Bills’ offense, it’s not just the matchup that’s the issue. It’s the volume. Yes, I know I just said Allen has been slinging the ball all over the place. Dude has attempted 93 passes in the last three weeks. My shoulder hurts just typing that stat. Regardless, our problem is how Allen is distributing his targets.

Ten different pass-catchers earned at least one look from Allen in Arrowhead Stadium. Seven of them got at least two or more. And four took part in catching passes in the red zone. So, on paper, the passing game looks convoluted. But, in reality, fantasy managers already know where to look for volume.

After taking a (slight) back seat to Gabe Davis in Week 12, Stefon Diggs was back in control as the team’s WR1. Admittedly, his 11 targets only amounted to 24 yards (marking the third under-50-yard performance in four games), but last Sunday’s outing was somewhat more encouraging. Diggs led the team in air yards (32.6%)—something he hadn’t done since their Week 9 loss to the Bengals.

So, while rostering Davis makes sense for the splash plays (eight such targets over his last five games), fantasy managers should know what to expect. And now, with a full game back, we have an idea of what to expect from the Bills’ TEs, too.

Luckily, Buffalo used 12-personnel on 29.0% of their plays, allowing Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox to co-exist from a route-rate perspective. The rookie TE had an 82.3% route rate with Knox out, and Kincaid was getting his cardio in on 87.5% of Allen’s dropbacks with Knox back. But Allen can only throw the ball to one of them. And Knox earned just enough to move Kincaid back to the low-end TE1 tier.

Kincaid ran the most red-zone routes (10 to 5) and got the only targets when the team got into scoring position. Plus, the freshman was Allen’s preferred target when under pressure compared to any other Bills pass-catcher (43.8% target share). It will take a TD for Kincaid to pay off, but the situational volume will be there for him in Week 15.

Nov 13, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) runs with the ball after making a catch against Denver Broncos cornerback Fabian Moreau (23) during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

But we also need to talk about Buffalo’s rushing attack. No, not Josh Allen. Well, he’ll be a factor, for sure. But there’ll be a need for a balanced attack to keep the offense moving. And the Eagles may have given them a blueprint for how to approach their pass rush.

Philadelphia has been a top-12 offense in early-down passing rate all season. However, they switched things up against the Cowboys. Because they anticipated the rush, D’Andre Swift used his, well, swift-ness to scoot by Micah Parsons and company. Accordingly, he ended the day with his second-highest rushing success rate of the season (63.6%). Kenny Gainwell, when subbing in for Swift, posted a positive EPA/play on 100.0% of his early-down totes. 

While Latavius Murray still mixes in for short-yardage situations, James Cook is still the early-down option for Buffalo. And he’s now earned five or more targets in his last two games. After the explosiveness he showed last week against Kansas City, if OC Joe Brady calls a similar game, we’ll see Cook racing down the field again in Week 15.