I’ll give the same general advice I wrote before all the bad weather games on Sunday.
Don’t freak out.
News (like the forecast and tweet threads about weather impacts) compels us to react. And we should. But a reaction doesn’t have to result in action. Reviewing our rosters, finding weak spots, and strengthening them — for a rainy game or a playoff run — requires the same approach you’ve used all season.
So, again, don’t freak out.
While we’ve still got injuries, and the stakes are higher, let’s review the waiver wire landscape yet again for the top pickups for Week 15.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
Injury Round-Up
- Texans
- C.J. Stroud (head)
- Nico Collins (calf)
- Raiders
- Josh Jacobs (knee)
- Chargers
- Justin Herbert (finger)
- Rams
- Tutu Atwell (head)
- Vikings
- Justin Jefferson (chest)
- Alexander Mattison (ankle)
QB
Jake Browning, Bengals
After a rough start in Week 12 against the Steelers, Jake Browning has scored over 20 fantasy points in two straight games. Fortunately, for fantasy purposes, nothing’s fundamentally changed about the offense.
- DBOE Rate: +9.0% (Weeks 1-10), +7.0% (Weeks 12-14)
- Designed Run Rate: 5.0%, 2.9%
- Play-Action Rate: 23.0%, 25.0%
Browning has primarily kept his passes short (4.7 air yards per attempt) but also looked downfield with at least one pass of 20 air yards or more in all three starts. Plus, he’s involved in the rushing game. Not only does the Bengals’ QB2 have a 5.1% scramble rate (matching Joe Burrow’s 4.0% rate in healthy games), but Browning has also had a 2.9% designed rate. The result has been 38 yards on the ground and two rushing scores.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning (6) throws in the second quarter during a Week 14 NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.
Accordingly, his efficiency (and the lack of No. 9 under center) has forced the Bengals’ coaching staff to incorporate more options into their passing game.
They’ve used more two-TE sets (bringing Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson into our lives), with Browning still keeping Ja’Marr Chase as the offense's focal point. It’s not as potent as if Burrow were there, but for what we’ll need, Browning is worth an add if you just lost Justin Herbert. And with his defense facing two backup QBs through the fantasy playoffs, Browning will have more shots to put up points over the next three weeks.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%
RB
Leftovers
- Chuba Hubbard: temporarily left the game due to injury; still had over a 2-to-1 lead in carries over Miles Sanders and was the only RB with a target (two of next three games against defense in the bottom half of the league in rushing EPA allowed).
Ty Chandler, Vikings
After Alexander Mattison got rolled up, Ty Chandler took over as the Vikings’ RB1. Chandler handled nine of 12 RB carries, and no other RB got more than two. Minnesota’s RB2 had a 69.6% route rate (16 routes) – the other rushers combined for three. And neither earned a target (Chandler got two).
Assuming Mattison is out, Chandler becomes a priority target. You may have better options already on your roster, but your opponent might not. And Chandler will have favorable environments with matchups against the Bengals, Lions, and Packers. So, at worst, play to block your competition while getting a starting RB for the playoffs.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 35%
Chase Brown, Bengals
If you’re not a highly-rostered player and score a TD, you make the waiver column. I don’t make the rules. But it’s important to understand Chase Brown’s role and potential value moving forward.
Brown’s snap share nearly doubled from Week 13 to this past Sunday. He also had his first multi-target game, earning 12.0% of the looks from Browning. But the Illinois product is yet to crack 30.0% of the team’s carries in a single game.
However, Brown has two things working for him. Cincinnati has been looking for speed (outside of Chase), and it was already on the bench. Brown clocked the second-fastest top speed of any ball carrier this season on his TD reception.
With the Bengals relying on their backup QB, they need all the weapons they can get. Brown also saw his first green-zone action, earning two carries from inside the 10-yard line to Joe Mixon’s six. Regardless of how the season ends for Cincinnati, keeping Brown involved (to evaluate him or push for a playoff spot) makes the most sense.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%
Zamir White, Raiders
Josh Jacobs didn’t leave the game until there were about six minutes left in the fourth quarter. As a result, we can’t get any sense of the touch share, assuming Jacobs isn’t ready by Thursday night.
Sep 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (35) carries the ball against the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Zamir White had mixed in with Jacobs and Ameer Abdullah and got an early-down carry in the third quarter. The second-year rusher was the only RB to take a tote as the Raiders attempted to mount their first scoring drive with minutes to go in the game. However, Abdullah already has the two-minute role and secured a steady flow of targets when Jacobs was still on the field.
So, while White might be the starter, he will still cede pass-catching duties to Abdullah. That means fantasy managers will depend on his efficiency in an already deficient offense for fantasy points.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs
I’m just noting Jerick McKinnon for thoroughness. Clyde Edwards-Helaire got more carries (11 to 4) and earned more targets (4 to 3). But, of course, when the Chiefs got into scoring position, McKinnon was on the field. He tripled CEH’s snaps and doubled his touches to get the only TD scored by a KC RB on Sunday.
And with Week 14 being his first game back from injury, McKinnon’s playing time could ramp up as the Chiefs fight for home-field advantage during the playoffs.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
WR
Leftovers
- Odell Beckham: Led the Ravens’ WRs in TPRR again (33.3%) with a 41.4% air yard share. He should be owned in every league at this point.
- Curtis Samuel: coming off his bye; tied for target lead (5) and most air yards of any WAS WR in Week 13 (43.9%).
Zay Jones, Jaguars
The logic for adding Zay Jones is pretty straightforward. In his first game without Christian Kirk, he earned 14 targets. That tied a career-high mark he matched back in Week 12 of last season, and it was just the ninth time in his seven-year career with double-digit looks from his QB.
On the one hand, he didn’t do much with the opportunity (29 scoreless yards). And it’s not like OC Press Taylor tried to find new ways to get Jones involved in the passing game. He played the third-fewest snaps from the slot against the Browns on Sunday, and his air yards per target (16.1) were the third-highest on the squad.
Dec 10, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones (7) slaps hands with a fan before the game against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
But on the other hand, he saw more passes thrown his way than Calvin Ridley. Jones hoarded 47.0% of the team’s air yards. Parker Washington will get some buzz because he caught a TD, but Lawrence only looked his way two other times. If you’re fighting for a playoff spot, you’ll need targets and yards to keep your hopes alive, and Jones has the best shot at both.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 35%
Jonathan Mingo, Panthers
Since all the conversation around Carolina has been on Bryce Young’s slow development and the coaching turnover, Jonathan Mingo becoming a more significant part of the offense has flown under the radar. Since Week 10, he’s their WR1.
- Target Share: 26.8% (1st)
- Air Yard Share: 33.6% (1st)
- Targets per Route Run: 20.8% (1st)
He’s seen six or more targets in five straight games and five or more in all but one contest since the Panthers’ bye. But Mingo still has to work on creating after the catch. Despite the volume, he hasn’t eclipsed 70 receiving yards in a single game all season. So, fantasy managers with deep starting rosters in a PPR league may benefit from adding Mingo. Otherwise, let’s wait until 2024.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 10%
John Metchie and Noah Brown, Texans
John Metchie and Noah Brown’s value hinges on C.J. Stroud’s availability for Week 15.
Brown led the Houston passing attack in air yard share (39.7%), while Metchie matched him in targets (five apiece). However, it’s worth noting that Brown shifted to the outside without Nico Collins, and Robert Woods resumed his full-time slot role.
It’ll make Brown’s usage less desirable, with fewer high-percentage looks from whomever’s under center, but his (and Metchie’s volume) are worth an add, assuming Stroud is back in Week 15.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: (Noah Brown 30%, John Metchie 2%)
