Week 16 Matchup of the Week. Cowboys @ Dolphins Breakdown.
There are too many logical factors pointing to a Dolphins victory.
Dallas has to play on the road, which has been something of a disaster for their offense. Their defense got smoked by the 49ers earlier in the year, and Miami just so happens to have a similar (albeit more stylish) mastermind pulling the strings. Plus, the Bills (and Eagles) laid out the “blueprint” for getting past the Cowboys’ pass rush: just run right by it.
All that to say, Dallas has a shot to win on the road.
Why? Well, so I can play both sides and still come out on top.
But seriously, teams with the right game plan and personnel have been able to put up points to keep pace with the Dolphins’ passing game. We might see more of 2022 Dak Prescott than ’23, but the result might be worth it.
Cowboys Week 16 Outlook
For Dallas, I get the concern. Prescott was inching his way into the MVP conversation, went on the road, and threw for the third-fewest passing yards in a single game in his career. And with how well Buffalo controlled the line of scrimmage, they dictated the game script, forcing Prescott into more throws on fewer total plays than we’ve seen over the last few weeks.
And let’s give credit where it’s due. Sean McDermott has shown himself to be a capable defensive mind when the situation calls for it. However, he’s not the only one. Let’s look at that home/road split narrative real quick:
- Passing Yards per Game: 303.6, 216.3 (Road)
- Passing Success Rate: 54.5%, 42.9%
- EPA per Play: 0.29, 0.01
- Fantasy PPG: 25.5, 14.4
Never mind the fact that Dak has had to face either good units at the time (Eagles, 49ers) or good defensive coaches (McDermott, Jonathan Gannon, Brandon Staley [yes, Staley]) on the road. Instead, let’s focus on how good he was at home when facing Matthew Stafford with a busted thumb, Tommy DeVito in his first start, and the Commanders without Chase Young or Montez Sweat.
Regardless, I won’t lie. With Vic Fangio calling the shots and Jalen Ramsey back on the field, Miami’s defense won’t make it easy for Prescott and the Dallas pass-catchers.
Since their bye, the Dolphins are second in rushing success rate and EPA per rush allowed. The last 100-yard rusher allowed by Miami was Austin Ekeler in Week 1. Derrick Henry needed two short-yardage scores to get into the top 12. Otherwise, he’d have sat at 6.1 PPR points for his efforts.
Their results bring Tony Pollard’s projection into question. But with Pollard still taking the majority of the carries from inside the 5-yard line and having a healthy 15.0% target share over the last month, few RBs can boast that type of workload. However, the bigger concern is for the receivers. I’ll use Patrick Mahomes’s passing chart against Miami as an example.
Per TruMedia, Mahomes threw to the middle of the field on 40.0% of his attempts against Miami. Across every other game this season, 53.3% of his throws have gone to the same area. The Dolphins’ secondary forces opponents outside into contested situations. Luckily, there isn’t a tight window Dak has shied away from this season. His 18.6% aggressiveness rate is fourth-highest among all passers with 120 attempts. And he has a few receivers that are beneficiaries of his knack for letting them make plays.
CeeDee Lamb carries the least concern of the Dallas pass-catching corps. Of note, in the five games before the Bills matchup, Lamb only had a 46.2% route rate but still led the way with 30.3% of the targets and a 36.9% air yard share. During that span, he was also the primary option when Prescott wanted to go deep. And given the WRs that have fared well against Ramsey and co., Lamb’s matchup against the star corner will be one for the ages:
- Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins (on deep targets): 3-103-0
- Week 13, Curtis Samuel: 3-58-0
- Week 11, Davante Adams: 5-66-1
The Eagles worked Dallas Goedert into their screen game (5-77-1), which gives Jake Ferguson a chance for a TE1 performance. Plus, Brandin Cooks (averaging 5.7 targets per game with the second-most looks of 20 air yards from Prescott) can always create an explosive to get the passing game moving. But outside of the primary three, there’s little more we can trust in fantasy for Week 16.
Dolphins Week 16 Outlook
On Miami’s side, HC Mike McDaniel already showed us what we can expect if Tyreek Hill doesn’t play. Folks rostered Cedrick Wilson in DFS or tried Durham Smythe as a desperation play at TE. Neither mattered (much) despite Tua Tagovailoa continuing to sling it downfield.
Without Hill on the field, Jaylen Waddle handled 34.6% of the targets and an absurd 89.8% air yard share. Eight different Miami players got at least one pass thrown their way. Waddle still got almost 90.0% of the air yards. And he was all over the place. Let’s hope Hill makes it back this week to join in on the fun, but I’m sure fantasy managers might be looking elsewhere for production after last week.
Our DvP tool may have the Cowboys as the ninth-worst matchup for RBs, but a couple of guys might disagree. James Cook hit a career-high in rushing yards (179), and D’Andre Swift hit his third-highest success rate of the season (63.6%) against Dallas the week before. And Miami’s offense has more than enough talent to test the Cowboys to see if they’ve fixed their issues against the Bills.
The Dolphins have had all three RBs (relatively) healthy and active the last three weeks. Regardless, it’s been the 31-year-old vet hoarding all of the high-end fantasy touches to himself.
Raheem Mostert has 20 total TDs this season. Before the year started, he had 19…in his entire career. What he’s done is nothing short of a fantasy MVP campaign, with an encore lined up for him on Sunday. Mostert leads in forced missed tackle rate (27.7%) and ripped off more explosive runs than his dynamic backup, DeVon Achane. However, Achane’s 31.4% TPRR rate since returning to the lineup is intriguing.
It was Cook’s early-down efficiency and pass-catching ability that kept him on the field for most of the game. Achane could see a similar role but with Mostert used more in tandem, given Achane’s slew of injuries. Regardless, fantasy managers should view both as potential RB1s for Week 16.
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