Paraphrasing Bill Belichick here: We’re (hopefully) on to Week 16.

Last week was the first round of the playoffs for most, and it felt like it. The chaos started on Thursday with the Raiders defusing the Chargers, and the excitement picked up momentum over the weekend. Multiple games went down to the wire. The playoff picture got a little clearer. However, we still have to keep our rosters ready for anything. 

But let’s not go overboard.

We need impact players to help us get through the championship run — a.k.a. the guys you’d actually consider starting. So, I kept it tight this week to find the waiver pickups you’ll need to take down your league.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

Injury Round-Up

  • Bengals
    • Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder)
  • Packers
    • Jayden Reed (toe)
  • Jets
    • Zach Wilson (head)

QB

Leftovers

  • Jake Browning: another week, another multi-TD performance; after two games with a negative pass rate over expectation (PROE), Browning was at a season-high +5.0%. We’ll watch for Ja’Marr Chase’s availability, but a rematch against the Steelers (who’ve allowed top-12 QB finishes in their last two games) isn’t as daunting as before.

Derek Carr, Saints

Carr becomes a viable streamer if Chris Olave returns for this game. 

It’s a volatile aspect of his game, but he has the sixth-most deep-ball attempts this season. Accordingly, the Rams have allowed at least one explosive reception in every game. Four have resulted in TDs in the last two weeks.

Regardless, Carr turned in one of his more efficient passing days against the Giants. It was his fourth time with a passing success rate of over 50.0%, targeting ten pass-catchers.

Olave’s return would condense Carr’s options, but the matchup gives him (and Olave) a safe floor for Week 16.

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Jets QB

Wait. Hear me out.

The Jets are playing the Commanders.

Washington has allowed two or more passing TDs in five straight games. Before the trade deadline, they could generate pressure on 34.6% of opposing QB’s dropbacks (19th-best). Since trading away their two best pass rushers, they’re dead last at 23.9%.

The last five passers to face them finished QB5, QB5, QB3, QB9, and QB8.

If you’re desperate and need someone to blame for starting Zach Wilson or Trevor Siemian in the fantasy playoffs, I’ll take the fall for recommending it.

RB

Leftovers

  • Chase Brown: His rushing share increased from 25.0% in Week 14 to 35.0% on Saturday, along with another three targets. Unfortunately, it was all Joe Mixon in the red zone, and Brown played fewer snaps.
  • Zamir White: Took on 65.4% of the team’s rushing attempts with a 59.5% route rate. For reference, Josh Jacobs had a 79.7% with a 52.4% route rate.
  • Jerick McKinnon: Had a 36.1% snap rate and fell behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire in red-zone touches and overall carries.

Trey Sermon, Colts

Zack Moss missed the second half with an injury. His status for Week 16 is unclear, but the initial analysis is he’ll be available.

However, if Moss’s ailment lingers, Trey Sermon will be the guy you need.

After Moss exited the game, Sermon was the only other Colts’ RB with double-digit touches. Sermon did have a 57.1% route rate but failed to earn a target. All of the RB looks from Gardner Minshew went to Tyler Goodson. But with Sermon holding a 3-to-1 lead on the red-zone touches, look to the former 49er for volume.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%

WR

Leftovers

  • Noah Brown: He set a new career high in targets (11), and his 32.4% TPRR rate was the sixth-highest of any Houston WR this season.
  • Curtis Samuel: Saw a season-high 26.5% target share in Week 15, his second game all season with a TPRR rate over 25.0%

Dontayvion Wicks, Packers

We’re now at two games in a row without Christian Watson, and Wicks has seen his target share increase from 15.8% to 19.4%. Meanwhile, Romeo Doubs has become less of a factor, as he only earned three targets this past Sunday.

Wicks

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks (13) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during their football game on Sunday, December 17, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay Wis. Tampa Bay defeated Green Bay 34-20.

Wicks is the only Packers’ WR (other than Jayden Reed) with a TPRR rate over 20.0%, with Jordan Love’s pass-game options somewhat condensed. Wicks’s seven targets on third/fourth down are the second-most on the team, and all of his receptions have gone for first downs. 

Wicks has played 68.2% of his snaps from the slot. At the same time, Love’s passing aDOT has continually declined from 10.8 in Week 12 to 6.4 on Sunday. If anyone stands to benefit from a more conservative offense, it’ll be the short-area route runners with Wicks working behind Reed.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%

Joshua Palmer, Chargers

Despite getting blown out by the Raiders, Easton Stick was at least able to get the ball to the WRs: his +2.0% completion rate over expectation ranked in the top half of all starters in Week 15. 

And without Keenan Allen, Stick found the most success targeting Joshua Palmer.

In his first game back, Palmer’s four targets were the fewest of the primary pass-catchers for the Chargers. However, his 3.77 YPRR was the third-highest mark of any of LA’s receivers all season. Palmer was the only way they could generate explosive plays. If Allen continues to sit because of his injury, Palmer should benefit from his absence on a squad missing reliable receiving talent.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 25%

TE

Tucker Kraft, Packers

Since Luke Musgrave went on IR, Tucker Kraft’s role within the offense has grown.

  • Route rate: 87.9% (Week 12), 74.4% (Week 13), 88.1% (Week 14), 92.7% (Week 15)
  • Air Yard Share: 2.0%, 7.9%, 14.5%, 15.8%
  • Target Share: 6.7%, 17.1%, 10.5%, 16.7%

Jayden Reed (nine targets) and Kraft (seven) have the most looks from Love when the Packers get into scoring position. Nobody else has more than three (Doubs). As Kraft becomes a reliable target for Love (second-most attempts when Love is under pressure), the rookie TE should be a viable waiver option as the Packers travel to Charlotte to face a Panthers’ secondary that just got diced up by Baker Mayfield.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%

Tanner Hudson, Bengals

While Drew Sample and Irv Smith Jr. have mixed into the passing-game rotation, Tanner Hudson is the only Bengals’ TE with a target share over 10.0% since Joe Burrow went on IR. 

Hudson’s 14.3% red-zone target share is the second-most on the team. Plus, only Hudson, Chase, and Tyler Boyd have earned looks from Browning once Cincinnati gets inside the 10-yard line. 

Admittedly, Hudson’s maximum total targets in a single game is five. It’s happened twice: against the Vikings last week and the Steelers in Week 12. Coincidentally, the Bengals will face the Steelers for the second time this week, and their secondary is extremely banged up. If you’re looking for some help at TE and buy into the Browning hype, Hudson should be on your short list of options for Week 16.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 2%

Waiver Wire Report