Fantasy

Week 18 Fantasy Football Rankings And Tiers. Kenneth Walker Is A Top-20 Flex Option.

by Dwain McFarland

10 months ago

Table of Contents

Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Week 18
Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Week 18
Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Week 18
Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Week 18

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 18 of the fantasy football season.

Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.

Notes:

Players are now tiered across all positions (RB, WR and TE) to help with flex decisions in larger formats. Because of this, TEs might not have a player deserving of Tier 1 compared to RBs and WRs.
Defensive yards and TDs allowed exclude overtime play.
All references to defensive ranks are for this week (bye Week teams excluded).

Last updated: 6:30 p.m. ET, Jan. 4. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Week 18

Rank	Tier	Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Team Total	Spread	PPG
1	1	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	MIA	26.25	-3.0	24.1
2	1	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	WAS	29.50	-13.0	20.4
3	1	Jalen Hurts	PHI	QB	NYG	23.50	-5.0	23.7
4	2	C.J. Stroud	HOU	QB	IND	24.25	-1.0	19.0
5	2	Justin Fields	CHI	QB	GB	20.50	3.0	19.8
6	3	Jordan Love	GB	QB	CHI	23.50	-3.0	19.5
7	3	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	QB	BUF	23.25	3.0	17.9
8	3	Kyler Murray	ARI	QB	SEA	22.75	2.5	18.7
9	4	Jared Goff	DET	QB	MIN	24.50	-3.5	17.8
10	4	Geno Smith	SEA	QB	ARI	25.25	-2.5	15.7
11	4	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	QB	TEN	22.25	-5.0	18.0
12	4	Baker Mayfield	TB	QB	CAR	21.00	-4.5	17.5
13	5	Derek Carr	NO	QB	ATL	22.50	-3.0	14.0
14	5	TyRod Taylor	NYG	QB	PHI	18.50	5.0	7.2
15	5	Nick Mullens	MIN	QB	DET	21.00	3.5	13.0
16	5	Gardner Minshew	IND	QB	HOU	23.25	1.0	13.6
17	5	Jake Browning	CIN	QB	CLE	22.25	-7.0	16.3
18	6	Mason Rudolph	PIT	QB	BAL	19.50	-4.0	10.5
19	6	Sam Howell	WAS	QB	DAL	16.50	13.0	16.8
20	6	Taylor Heinicke	ATL	QB	NO	19.50	3.0	14.0
21	6	Easton Stick	LAC	QB	KC	19.25	-3.5	14.5
22	6	Tyler Huntley	BAL	QB	PIT	15.50	4.0	2.9
23	6	Aidan O'Connell	LV	QB	DEN	20.50	-3.0	11.9
24	6	Carson Wentz	LAR	QB	SF	18.50	4.0	0.0
25	6	Will Levis	TEN	QB	JAX	17.25	5.0	12.4
26	6	Bryce Young	CAR	QB	TB	16.50	4.5	11.2
27	7	Sam Darnold	SF	QB	LAR	22.5	-4.0	0.8
28	7	Bailey Zappe	NE	QB	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	8.6
29	7	Jarrett Stidham	DEN	QB	LV	17.5	3.0	6.8
30	8	Jeff Driskel	CLE	QB	CIN	15.25	7.0	-
31	8	Blaine Gabbert	KC	QB	LAC	15.75	3.5	-0.9
32	8	Trevor Siemian	NYJ	QB	NE	14.25	2.0	8.5
33	9	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	QB	JAX	17.25	5.0	9.2
34	9	C.J. Beathard	JAX	QB	TEN	22.25	-5.0	3.1

Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Week 18

Rank	Tier	Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Team Total	Spread	PPG
1	1	Rachaad White	TB	RB	CAR	21.00	-4.5	14.3
2	2	Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB	HOU	23.25	1.0	13.4
3	2	James Cook	BUF	RB	MIA	26.25	-3.0	13.0
4	2	Breece Hall	NYJ	RB	NE	14.25	2.0	14.0
5	2	Travis Etienne Jr.	JAC	RB	TEN	22.25	0.0	14.9
6	2	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	RB	MIN	24.50	-3.5	14.9
7	2	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	RB	ARI	25.25	-2.5	12.6
8	2	De'Von Achane	MIA	RB	BUF	23.25	3.0	16.7
9	3	James Conner	ARI	RB	SEA	22.75	2.5	13.3
10	3	Zamir White	LV	RB	DEN	20.50	-3.0	4.0
11	3	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	PHI	18.50	5.0	14.0
12	3	Tony Pollard	DAL	RB	WAS	29.50	-13.0	11.2
13	3	Devin Singletary	HOU	RB	IND	24.25	-1.0	8.7
14	3	D'Andre Swift	PHI	RB	NYG	23.50	-5.0	11.4
15	3	Bijan Robinson	ATL	RB	NO	19.50	3.0	12.5
16	3	Raheem Mostert	MIA	RB	BUF	23.25	3.0	17.1
17	3	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	CHI	23.50	-3.0	10.5
18	3	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	CLE	22.25	-7.0	13.4
19	3	Ezekiel Elliott	NE	RB	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	8.8
20	3	David Montgomery	DET	RB	MIN	24.50	-3.5	14.6
21	3	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	JAX	17.25	5.0	13.2
22	3	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	ATL	22.50	-3.0	14.6
23	3	Ty Chandler	MIN	RB	DET	21.00	3.5	6.3
24	4	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	KC	19.25	-3.5	12.3
25	4	Khalil Herbert	CHI	RB	GB	20.50	3.0	8.9
26	4	Elijah Mitchell	SF	RB	LAR	22.50	-4.0	3.1
27	4	Brian Robinson Jr.	WAS	RB	DAL	16.50	13.0	12.6
28	4	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	RB	TB	16.50	4.5	9.6
29	4	Jaylen Warren	PIT	RB	BAL	19.50	-4.0	10.2
30	4	Najee Harris	PIT	RB	BAL	19.50	-4.0	10.1
31	4	Javonte Williams	DEN	RB	LV	17.50	3.0	9.1
32	4	Ronnie Rivers	LAR	RB	SF	18.50	4.0	2.1
33	4	Isiah Pacheco	KC	RB	LAC	15.75	3.5	13.9
34	4	Tyjae Spears	TEN	RB	JAX	17.25	5.0	6.7
35	5	Jerome Ford	CLE	RB	CIN	15.25	7.0	11.6
36	5	Gus Edwards	BAL	RB	PIT	15.50	4.0	11.1
37	6	Roschon Johnson	CHI	RB	GB	20.50	3.0	5.9
38	6	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	RB	LAC	15.75	3.5	4.3
39	6	Antonio Gibson	WAS	RB	DAL	16.50	13.0	6.8
40	6	Jamaal Williams	NO	RB	ATL	22.50	-3.0	3.4
41	6	Chase Brown	CIN	RB	CLE	22.25	-7.0	4.1
42	6	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	RB	NO	19.50	3.0	7.6
43	6	Zack Moss	WAS	RB	DAL	16.50	13.0	11.6
44	6	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	RB	ARI	25.25	-2.5	5.5
45	6	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	RB	NYG	23.50	-5.0	5.1
46	6	AJ Dillon	GB	RB	CHI	23.50	-3.0	7.1
47	6	Kareem Hunt	CLE	RB	CIN	15.25	7.0	7.9
48	6	Jordan Mason	SF	RB	LAR	22.50	-4.0	3.8
49	6	Royce Freeman	LAR	RB	SF	18.50	4.0	5.5
50	7	Alexander Mattison	MIN	RB	DET	21.00	3.5	7.9
51	7	Justice Hill	BAL	RB	PIT	15.50	4.0	6.2
52	7	Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	RB	LV	17.50	3.0	5.6
53	7	Jeff Wilson Jr.	MIA	RB	BUF	23.25	3.0	3.3
54	7	Samaje Perine	DEN	RB	LV	17.50	3.0	6.0
55	7	John Metchie	DEN	RB	LV	17.50	3.0	1.5
56	8	Pierre Strong	CLE	RB	CIN	15.25	7.0	0.0
57	8	Melvin Gordon III	BAL	RB	PIT	15.50	4.0	6.1
58	9	Dameon Pierce	HOU	RB	IND	24.25	-1.0	5.4
59	9	Miles Sanders	CAR	RB	TB	16.50	4.5	5.1
60	9	Ameer Abdullah	LV	RB	DEN	20.50	-3.0	1.9
61	9	Kevin Harris	NE	RB	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	6.2
62	9	Isaiah Spiller	LAC	RB	KC	19.25	-3.5	1.8
63	9	Emari Demercado	ARI	RB	SEA	22.75	2.5	4.8
64	9	Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	RB	NO	19.50	3.0	2.3
65	9	Israel Abanikanda	NYJ	RB	NE	14.25	2.0	2.8
66	9	Ben Skowronek	LAR	RB	SF	18.50	4.0	0.9
67	9	Chase Edmonds	TB	RB	CAR	21.00	-4.5	2.5
68	9	Ty Johnson	BUF	RB	MIA	26.25	-3	3.9
69	9	Latavius Murray	BUF	RB	MIA	26.25	-3	4.7
70	9	Michael Carter	ARI	RB	SEA	22.75	2.5	3.2
71	9	Patrick Taylor Jr.	GB	RB	CHI	23.5	-3	2.5
72	9	Joshua Kelley	LAC	RB	KC	19.25	-3.5	3.7
73	9	D'Ernest Johnson	JAC	RB	TEN	22.25	0	1.9
74	9	La'Mical Perine	KC	RB	LAC	15.75	3.5	0.0
75	9	Dare Ogunbowale	HOU	RB	IND	24.25	-1	0.9

Tier 2 – Kenneth Walker

Walker has taken firm command of the Seahawks ground attack over the last three games, handling 80% of the attempts. Zach Charbonnet remains involved as the primary LDD and two-minute option, but Walker still averages 17 opportunities per contest with 14.7 attempts and 2.3 targets.

Walker is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit him in practice again this week, but a lack of practice time hasn’t been a factor over the last two games. With the Seahawks must win this weekend to have a shot at a playoff birth, expect Walker to leave everything on the field against the Cardinals.

Arizona allows the most yards (143) and the fifth-most TDs (1.0) per contest on the ground, leading to huge fantasy outings for opponents. No other team allows more points per game (28) than the Cardinals.

The Seahawks carry the third-highest total on the slate (25.25) as 2.5-point favorites. If Walker gets to 20-plus touches, he has a chance to eclipse 100 yards and could have a multi-TD day. At $6,500, he will be a popular selection on DraftKings with so much uncertainty around playing time for teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, Browns and Rams.

The Seahawks play in the late window and won’t know their fate before the game starts. They need to win, and for the Packers — who also play in the late window — to lose.

Walker is in a SMASH play as my RB7 and is a top-20 flex option, assuming the shoulder is good to go.

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Tier 3 – Devin Singletary

Singletary has become the focal point of the Texans backfield over the last four games. The 26-year-old RB has bogarted 67% of the rushing attempts, including 75% of the work inside the five-yard line. He gives way to Dare Ogunbowale in LDD situations but remains the primary option when it matters most in the passing game — the two-minute offense.

Singletary averages 16 attempts and 3.3 targets per game over this stretch, making him a high-end RB2 option with C.J. Stroud back at the helm. Over the last 12 years, RBs with Singletary’s profile averaged 14.4 points and an RB15 finish.

The Texans and Colts will face off on Saturday night in one of the most exciting matchups of the weekend. Whoever wins the game is in the playoffs.

Indianapolis allows the sixth-most rushing yards (128) and the third-most TDs (1.3) per game, making this a potential blowup spot. The Texans won’t have Noah Brown, which could also open up additional targets for the backfield.

Singletary is also 165 yards away from a $125,000 incentive bonus. It will be hard to reach, but it doesn’t hurt just in case the game script breaks his way — it could keep him on the field even in a blowout if he is close late.

Singletary UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status as my RB13 and ranks inside my top-25 flex options.

RB Quick Hits

Several teams plan on resting starters this weekend, creating opportunities for players down the depth chart. Additionally, teams already eliminated from the playoffs will have an easier time benching players who aren’t 100% healthy. With RBs, we know volume is king, making the situations below worth monitoring as we get more news.

Browns: The Browns plan on resting some starters with Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper already ruled out. We could see a more significant workload for Pierre Strong even if Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are active. I would rather not play Ford or Hunt this weekend in DFS, but Strong becomes interesting at $4,000 on DraftKings if one is declared inactive.
Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco hasn’t practiced this week, and the Chiefs have already ruled out Patrick Mahomes. At a minimum, I think Pacheco’s touches get curtailed in Week 18. If Pacheco is a scratch, Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be in for a sizable role. La’Mical Perine is next on the depth chart, and Kansas City could also promote Deneric Prince. If Pacheco is out and CEH is active, he could bogart up to 70% of the playing time, making him a volume-based RB2. All three offer great pricing on DraftKings: CEH ($4,900), Perine ($4,500) and Prince ($4,000).
49ers: Christian McCaffrey won’t play in Week 18, leaving the door open for Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason and possibly even Tyrion Davis-Price to see significant run. Mitchell dominated the backfield in Week 17 after McCaffrey left, but given Mitchell’s injury history, the team could opt to lighten his load. In that case, Mason could lead the way. I currently have Mitchell projected to lead the way, but we must monitor the latest news over the coming days. This is another situation that could open up salary on DrafKings: Mitchell ($5,800), Mason ($4,600) and Davis-Price ($4,000).
Rams: Kyren Williams won’t play on Sunday, creating an opportunity for Ronnie Rivers and Royce Freeman to see more opportunities. Freeman was the lead option when Williams was hurt, but Rivers was on IR. Over the last two games, Rivers has taken over the No. 2 role as the only other Rams RB to see a snap. Based on this most recent data point, I have Rivers projected as the lead back, but we should expect some form of a committee. Rivers comes in as a mid-range RB3 in my ranks and offers salary relief as a $4,000 option on DraftKings.
Ravens: Lamar Jackson has already been ruled out, and some other starters could also rest. With Jackson out, there will be more designed rushing attempts to spread across the active options. Melvin Gordon or the freshly signed Dalvin Cook could get significant run if Gus Edwards or Justice Hill are inactive.

Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Week 18

Rank	Tier	Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Team Total	Spread	PPG
1	1	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	WAS	29.50	-13.0	19.3
2	1	Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR	BUF	23.25	3.0	20.1
3	1	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	WR	MIN	24.50	-3.5	16.6
4	1	Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	DET	21.00	3.5	15.6
5	2	A.J. Brown	PHI	WR	NYG	23.50	-5.0	15.0
6	2	Mike Evans	TB	WR	CAR	21.00	-4.5	15.0
7	2	DJ Moore	CHI	WR	GB	20.50	3.0	14.5
8	2	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR	CLE	22.25	-7.0	13.9
9	2	Nico Collins	HOU	WR	IND	24.25	-1.0	13.5
10	2	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	WR	HOU	23.25	1.0	12.5
11	3	DK Metcalf	SEA	WR	ARI	25.25	-2.5	12.7
12	3	Chris Olave	NO	WR	ATL	22.50	-3.0	11.5
13	3	Davante Adams	LV	WR	DEN	20.50	-3.0	12.6
14	3	Stefon Diggs	BUF	WR	MIA	26.25	-3.0	13.0
15	3	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	CAR	21.00	-4.5	9.8
16	3	Jayden Reed	GB	WR	CHI	23.50	-3.0	11.3
17	3	DeAndre Hopkins	TEN	WR	JAX	17.25	5.0	10.8
18	3	DeVonta Smith	PHI	WR	NYG	23.50	-5.0	11.8
19	4	George Pickens	PIT	WR	BAL	19.50	-4.0	11.1
20	4	Christian Kirk	JAX	WR	TEN	22.25	-5.0	10.5
21	4	Adam Thielen	CAR	WR	TB	16.50	4.5	11.0
22	4	Calvin Ridley	JAC	WR	TEN	22.25	0.0	10.6
23	4	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	ARI	25.25	-2.5	9.1
24	4	Jordan Addison	MIN	WR	DET	21.00	3.5	10.8
25	4	Christian Watson	GB	WR	CHI	23.50	-3.0	9.7
26	4	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	WR	NE	14.25	2.0	10.3
27	4	Demarcus Robinson	LAR	WR	SF	18.50	4.0	6.4
28	4	Rashee Rice	KC	WR	LAC	15.75	3.5	10.9
29	5	Deebo Samuel	SF	WR	LAR	22.50	-4.0	14.5
30	5	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	WR	LAR	22.50	-4.0	14.0
31	5	Joshua Palmer	LAC	WR	KC	19.25	-3.5	9.1
32	5	Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	DAL	16.50	13.0	9.7
33	5	Drake London	ATL	WR	NO	19.50	3.0	8.8
34	5	Gabe Davis	BUF	WR	MIA	26.25	-3.0	8.7
35	5	Puka Nacua	LAR	WR	SF	18.50	4.0	14.6
36	5	Jakobi Meyers	LV	WR	DEN	20.50	-3.0	10.9
37	5	Brandin Cooks	DAL	WR	WAS	29.50	-13.0	8.7
38	5	Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR	BAL	19.50	-4.0	9.2
39	5	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	WR	ARI	25.25	-2.5	7.2
40	5	Rashid Shaheed	NO	WR	ATL	22.50	-3.0	8.2
41	5	Darius Slayton	NYG	WR	PHI	18.50	5.0	7.0
42	5	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	LV	17.50	3.0	11.1
43	5	Rashod Bateman	BAL	WR	PIT	15.50	4.0	4.0
44	5	Tutu Atwell	LAR	WR	SF	18.50	4.0	5.8
45	5	Josh Downs	IND	WR	HOU	23.25	1.0	7.3
46	5	Curtis Samuel	WAS	WR	DAL	16.50	13.0	8.1
47	5	Romeo Doubs	GB	WR	CHI	23.50	-3.0	9.0
48	5	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	WR	PHI	18.50	5.0	6.6
49	6	Demario Douglas	NE	WR	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	6.3
50	6	DJ Chark Jr.	CAR	WR	TB	16.50	4.5	6.7
51	6	Nelson Agholor	BAL	WR	PIT	15.50	4.0	4.6
52	6	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	WR	LV	17.50	3.0	6.6
53	6	Greg Dortch	ARI	WR	SEA	22.75	2.5	4.2
54	6	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	CLE	22.25	-7.0	7.0
55	6	Jameson Williams	DET	WR	MIN	24.50	-3.5	5.7
56	6	Michael Wilson	ARI	WR	SEA	22.75	2.5	6.8
57	6	K.J. Osborn	MIN	WR	DET	21.00	3.5	6.3
58	6	Quentin Johnston	LAC	WR	KC	19.25	-3.5	4.5
59	6	DeVante Parker	NE	WR	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	4.6
60	6	Alec Pierce	IND	WR	HOU	23.25	1.0	5.0
61	6	Jahan Dotson	WAS	WR	DAL	16.50	13.0	6.1
62	6	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	MIA	WR	BUF	23.25	3.0	4.0
63	6	Khalil Shakir	BUF	WR	MIA	26.25	-3.0	5.0
64	7	Cedric Tillman	CLE	WR	CIN	15.25	7.0	2.1
65	7	Robert Woods	HOU	WR	IND	24.25	-1.0	5.0
66	7	Treylon Burks	TEN	WR	JAX	17.25	5.0	3.2
67	7	Josh Reynolds	DET	WR	MIN	24.50	-3.5	6.5
68	7	Rondale Moore	ARI	WR	SEA	22.75	2.5	4.9
69	7	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	WR	CHI	23.50	-3.0	5.8
70	7	Jalin Hyatt	NYG	WR	PHI	18.50	5.0	3.0
71	7	Trey Palmer	TB	WR	CAR	21.00	-4.5	4.8
72	7	Chris Moore	TEN	WR	JAX	17.25	5.0	3.3
73	8	Alex Erickson	LAC	WR	KC	19.25	-3.5	4.8
74	8	Tre Tucker	LV	WR	DEN	20.50	-3.0	3.4
75	8	Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	WR	LV	17.50	3.0	3.7
76	8	Parker Washington	JAC	WR	TEN	22.25	0.0	4.0
77	8	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	WAS	29.50	-13.0	4.4
78	8	Brandon Johnson	DEN	WR	LV	17.50	3.0	4.3
79	8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	DEN	WR	LV	17.50	3.0	2.5
80	8	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	KC	WR	LAC	15.75	3.5	3.0
81	8	Xavier Gipson	NYJ	WR	NE	14.25	2.0	3.2
82	8	Kalif Raymond	DET	WR	MIN	24.50	-3.5	4.6
83	8	Richie James Jr.	KC	WR	LAC	15.75	3.5	0.0
84	9	Bo Melton	GB	WR	CHI	23.50	-3.0	7.0
85	9	Keelan Doss	LAC	WR	KC	19.25	-3.5	1.3
86	9	Justin Watson	KC	WR	LAC	15.75	3.5	5.1
87	9	A.T. Perry	NO	WR	ATL	22.50	-3.0	4.0
88	9	Allen Robinson II	PIT	WR	BAL	19.50	-4.0	2.8
89	9	Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	WR	IND	24.25	-1.0	1.3
90	9	Tyquan Thornton	NE	WR	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	2.3
91	9	Trenton Irwin	CIN	WR	CLE	22.25	-7.0	3.0
92	9	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	WR	CLE	22.25	-7.0	1.7
93	9	Malik Heath	GB	WR	CHI	23.50	-3.0	2.0
94	9	Jalen Reagor	NE	WR	NYJ	16.25	-2.0	1.5
95	9	Jason Brownlee	NYJ	WR	NE	14.25	2.0	2.4
96	9	Julio Jones	PHI	WR	NYG	23.50	-5.0	2.9
97	9	Tyler Scott	CHI	WR	GB	20.50	3.0	1.7
98	9	Hunter Renfrow	LV	WR	DEN	20.50	-3.0	2.4

Tier 1 – Justin Jefferson

Jefferson was a letdown in the fantasy championship round, with 10.9 fantasy points. However, he only had 2.3 points at halftime before the team switched from Jaren Hall to Nick Mullens. In the second half, Jefferson accumulated eight targets, which he parlayed into four receptions for 46 yards.

From a real-life football perspective, Mullens is a turnover waiting to happen. Out of all QBs with at least 100 dropbacks, he ranks second in turnover-worthy play rate (7.5) per PFF. However, from a fantasy perspective, he is the best option for Jefferson, who leads the team with a 30% TPRR and 2.44 YPRR on routes with Mullens.

Since returning from injury in Week 15, Jefferson has dominated the Vikings' passing attack, averaging 9.7 targets (31%), 1.7 end zone targets (52%) and 164 air yards (50%) per contest.

The Vikings need to defeat the Lions and need the Packers and Seahawks to lose, plus one of the Buccaneers or Saints to lose. They are long shots to enter the postseason, but they are live heading to the river card. Minnesota plays early on Sunday, meaning they should be playing all their stars.

The Lions aren’t going to rest their starters because they still have a chance to secure the No. 2 seed if Dallas loses, which could propel this game into shootout status if the Vikings can get going on offense. Detroit has made significant improvements this season, but their secondary has remained a weakness, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards (260) and the sixth-most receiving TDs (1.6) per contest. Only the Eagles and Commanders concede more fantasy points to opposing WRs.

Jefferson has one of the better setups this weekend’s slate, but his price tag has also pushed higher ($8,500) on DraftKings. However, there should be plenty of salary relief options as we gain more clarity around injuries and which starters will sit out Week 18 for teams that have already clinched playoff births.

With every aspect of this game aligning for Jefferson, he is a SMASH play, ranking as my WR4.

Tier 2 – Michael Pittman

Pittman cooled off in the box score over the last two outings, but his underlying utilization remains impressive. He left Week 15 due to injury but was on pace for another big performance. Over the four-game stretch, Pittman has a 31% TPRR, averaging 17 fantasy points per game.

The fourth-year WR hopes to be the latest WR to torment a Texans secondary, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game at 262 yards.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) runs in the game-winning touchdown in overtime against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. The final score was 31-28.

In what is essentially a playoff game, the Colts carry the fourth-best team total (24.3) in a matchup with the third-highest game total (47.5). Look for the Colts to prioritize the WR1 in what could be a shootout in Week 18.

Pittman is a SMASH play as my WR10 and ranks among my top 20 players overall.

Tier 3 – DeAndre Hopkins

Based on his incentive-laden contract, Hopkins could trigger significant bonuses in Week 18.

49 yards: $1M
Seven receptions: $250K

While the 49 yards don’t do much for Hopkins’ ceiling, it isn’t a bad floor, and if he gets to seven receptions, we could get a boom game. However, the most critical factor for Hopkins is the status of Will Levis, who got in a limited practice on Thursday.

From Week 8 to Week 15 with Levis, Hopkins averaged 147 air yards — a significant difference from his 90 per game with Tannehill.

Accuracy issues and deep targets have depressed Hopkins’ catchable ball rate with the rookie, but the upside is undeniable when the two are on the field together. Hopkins averages 15.5 points per game with Levis, including 35-point and 25-point outings.

Jacksonville can secure a playoff birth with a win, so they will be highly motivated to take Hopkins away. However, the Jaguars defense has endorsed the seventh-most receiving yards (262) and the sixth-most TDs per contest this season. In Week 11, Hopkins secured four catches for 59 yards and a score on five targets.

Hopkins UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and offers WR1 upside for $6,000 on DraftKings.

Tier 4 – Adam Thielen

It has been a season to forget for the Panthers, but Bryce Young & Co. will get one final opportunity to build momentum for the 2024 campaign. Thielen was the offensive engine early in the year, registering three top-five finishes over the first six contests. The 33-year-old receiver averaged 9.8 targets with a 32% target share over his first five healthy contests.

Unfortunately, as the season progressed, the Panthers became more run-oriented, and Jonathan Mingo emerged as competition for targets. Since Week 8, Thielen has only had three top-24 performances, averaging 10.1 fantasy points.

However, Mingo was placed on IR this week and the Panthers face a Buccaneers secondary granting the most passing yards (280) and the eighth-most receiving TDs (1.4) per contest. We may see early-season Thielen in Week 18 as the veteran looks to close out the year strong after signing a three-year $25M deal with the Panthers last offseason.

Thielen UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status for Week 18.

Tier 4 – Jordan Addison

Addison is only competing with Jefferson for targets now, with T.J. Hockenson out for the season. While that hasn’t led to an uptick in targets so far, the possibility is there, given his pedigree. Addison has shown an ability to come through without immense target volume — as we saw with his two-TD performance that fueled 29 fantasy points in Week 15.

In a must-win game against the Lions, Addison and the Vikings will have plenty to play for, and Addison should come in with a much lower rostership than Jefferson in DFS. At only $5,300 in a matchup that could unlock his big-play upside, the rookie is in an excellent spot for Week 18.

Addison UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory and is my No. 60 player overall, 40 spots ahead of industry consensus.

WR Quick Hits

Rams: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee won’t play in Week 18. Puka Nacua needs four receptions to break Jaylen Waddle’s rookie record of 104, and with 29 receiving yards, he will surpass Bill Groman’s rookie record of 1,473 set in 1960. However, based on Sean McVay's comments, we might not see Nacua once he reaches those marks. This means more significant roles for Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell, who have both flashed at different points. Carson Wentz is a clear downgrade from Stafford, but Robinson is $4,500 and Atwell is only $3,300 on DraftKings. Robinson is a mid-range WR3 and Atwell is a boom-bust WR4.
Ravens: Odell Beckham won’t play, and Zay Flowers is doubtful this weekend against the Steelers. Tyler Huntley has proven decent as a backup QB, which makes Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor intriguing options. Bateman has come on recently with a 22% target share over the last three games. Bateman moves into WR4 territory and offers WR2 upside, while Agholor climbs into the WR5 conversation.

Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Week 18

Rank	Tier	Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Team Total	Spread	PPG
1	3	Trey McBride	ARI	TE	SEA	22.8	2.5	8.1
2	4	Sam LaPorta	DET	TE	MIN	24.5	-3.5	11.3
3	4	Evan Engram	JAC	TE	TEN	22.3	0.0	9.9
4	4	Jake Ferguson	DAL	TE	WAS	29.5	-13.0	8.2
5	4	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	NYG	23.5	-5.0	8.1
6	5	Dalton Schultz	HOU	TE	IND	24.3	-1.0	8.3
7	5	Tucker Kraft	GB	TE	CHI	23.5	-3.0	3.7
8	5	Gerald Everett	LAC	TE	KC	19.3	-3.5	6.1
9	5	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	LAC	15.8	3.5	11.7
10	5	George Kittle	SF	TE	LAR	22.5	-4.0	10.7
11	5	David Njoku	CLE	TE	CIN	15.3	7.0	10.3
12	6	Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	GB	20.5	3.0	8.7
13	6	Isaiah Likely	BAL	TE	PIT	15.5	4.0	4.7
14	6	Darren Waller	NYG	TE	PHI	18.5	5.0	7.3
15	6	Juwan Johnson	NO	TE	ATL	22.5	-3.0	6.2
16	6	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	TE	MIA	26.3	-3.0	6.9
17	6	Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	TE	JAX	17.3	5.0	5.1
18	6	Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	NO	19.5	3.0	6.7
19	6	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	TE	BAL	19.5	-4.0	5.1
20	6	Taysom Hill	NO	TE	ATL	22.5	-3.0	7.9
21	7	Tanner Hudson	CIN	TE	CLE	22.3	-7.0	5.3
22	7	Tyler Conklin	NYJ	TE	NE	14.3	2.0	5.6
23	7	Logan Thomas	WAS	TE	DAL	16.5	13.0	6.7
24	7	Cade Otton	TB	TE	CAR	21.0	-4.5	5.6
25	7	Jonnu Smith	ATL	TE	NO	19.5	3.0	5.7
26	7	Davis Allen	LAR	TE	SF	18.5	4.0	1.1
27	7	Noah Fant	SEA	TE	ARI	25.3	-2.5	3.6
28	7	Noah Gray	KC	TE	LAC	15.8	3.5	3.5
29	8	Johnny Mundt	MIN	TE	DET	21.0	3.5	1.5
30	8	Hunter Henry	NE	TE	NYJ	16.3	-2.0	7.1
31	8	Mike Gesicki	NE	TE	NYJ	16.3	-2.0	3.1
32	8	Durham Smythe	MIA	TE	BUF	23.3	3.0	3.3
33	8	Dawson Knox	BUF	TE	MIA	26.3	-3.0	2.9
34	9	Kylen Granson	IND	TE	HOU	23.3	1.0	3.9
35	9	Austin Hooper	LV	TE	DEN	20.5	-3.0	1.9

Reminder: I have leveled my tiers across RB, WR and TE to help with flex lineup decisions. So, getting to Tier 1 is hard — often, Tier 2 is where you will find my highest-ranked TE.

Tier 6 – Chigoziem Okonkwo

Okonkwo hasn’t lived up to the hype that pushed him into the low-end TE1 conversation ahead of the 2023 season. However, his playing time is rising, with Josh Whyle now on IR. Okonkwo reached an 80% route participation only once over the first 13 games but has done so in each of the last two contests.

DeAndre Hopkins remains the No. 1 option in Tennessee, but Treylon Burks (10% TPRR) and Chris Moore (10% TPRR) haven’t established themselves as secondary options. While Okonkwo’s playing time has been an issue, his 18% TPRR is TE1-worthy based on the last 12 seasons of data.

Don’t be surprised if Okonkwo outperforms his $3,500 price point on DraftKings. The Jaguars have green-lighted the fifth-most receiving yards (262) and the sixth-most (1.6) TDs per game.

Okonkwo UPGRADES to borderline-TE1 material in Week 18. He is in the same tier with names like Darren Waller and Juwan Johnson.

TE Quick Hits

Davis Allen: With Tyler Higbee out for Week 18, Allen could play an every-down role. The rookie flashed in Week 14 with 15 fantasy points when given a 60% route participation due to a Higbee injury. Allen is a punt play option for $2,500 on DraftKings.
Isaiah Likely: There is a chance Likely doesn’t play a full complement of snaps, but with Beckham out and Flowers unlikely to go, the Ravens are thin on pass catchers. If Likely plays a full-time role, he could dominate the passing attack, making him a boom-bust borderline TE1.

Dwain McFarland