Week 18 Matchup of the Week. Vikings @ Lions Breakdown.

A Week 18 divisional rematch sounds slow-paced and low-scoring. The teams already know each other, and there are only four quarters left before the offseason. But the stakes are high for both squads, with both teams playing for something in the final week of the regular season:

• Detroit: Despite their crushing loss to the Cowboys in Week 17, the No. 2 seed (aka staying at home until the NFC Championship game) is still in play if they get a win.
• Vikings: Yes, at 7-9, Minnesota can still get into the playoffs. However, the IF, AND, and OR statements needed to make that happen look more like lines of code than a path to playing more football in January. But, most importantly, it requires a Vikings win for any of it to matter.

So, lucky for us, the chance for players to rest is minimal unless it happens late in the game due to a blowout.

Vikings Week 18 Outlook

With how the Vikings have played recently, it’s hard to see a lopsided matchup occurring. 

HC Kevin O’Connell’s QB problem has affected his playcalling. Minnesota has run fewer plays over the last two weeks, as Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall have combined for three TDs and five INTs over the same span. However, as we saw in their first meeting, the Lions’ secondary can be forgiving to opposing passing games.

In their first game without T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings essentially tried to replace the Pro Bowl TE with Johnny Mundt (career-high seven targets). The results went about as expected. Hall and Mullens (after Hall got benched during halftime) attempted 11 passes in obvious passing situations and got three first downs. But, overall, the volume went to the right players.

Justin Jefferson didn’t record a catch until the second quarter but soaked up 32.3% of the looks and almost 50.0% of the air yards (49.8%, to be exact). 

However, Jefferson was the biggest beneficiary of the switch at QB.

Per PFF, Hall’s average time to throw was 3.51 seconds through the first two quarters of the game. For reference, the only other passers this season who needed that much time to let the ball fly were Malik Willis and Marcus Mariota. Not great! As a result, Jefferson sat at a whopping 20.0 air yards per target on both of Hall’s passes thrown his way.

Think about that. Your best WR (heck, one of THE best receivers) gets reduced to a jump-ball, contested-catch merchant on a couple of deep shots. However, in the second half, Mullens (3.03 average time to throw, almost a full half-second faster) was able to get the passing game back on track.

• Air yards per target: 20.0 (first half), 10.1 (second half)
• Air yard share: 39.2%, 57.4%
• TPRR: 14.3%, 33.3%
• Target Share: 22.2%, 36.4%

Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) reacts with Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) during the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

For WRs, and specifically receivers like Jefferson (who sits just outside the top 20 in yards after the catch per reception), where they get targets matters almost as much as how often they earn targets. Jefferson ran over 40.0% of his routes from the slot with Hall under center but only got the ball thrown his way when he was on the outside. Accordingly, he had -1 YAC after the first half. 

Not only did Mullens look his way more often in the second half, but a quarter of Jefferson’s targets came while he was running from the interior. Combined with his shorter aDOT, unsurprisingly, we saw his YPRR jump to 1.92 over the final two frames. After the Lions just hemorrhaged 227 yards to CeeDee Lamb and Jefferson smoked them for 141 two weeks ago, the former LSU star is in line for another big day to keep the Vikings in the playoff hunt.

Between him and Jordan Addison (who was dealing with an ankle injury from Week 16), there’s little fantasy value elsewhere in the aerial attack. Even the backfield has some uncertainty tied to it.

Despite Ty Chandler still being the starter, Alexander Mattison has wedged himself into what was a lucrative role for Chandler. Chandler should still fall into the RB2 category for Week 18, but Mattison’s short-yardage role may turn into a vulture-like situation that helps no one in fantasy.

Lions Week 18 Outlook

For the Lions, let’s hope they can channel their frustration into a fantasy-point bonanza to close out the regular season. Fortunately, even if Detroit leans into their run-heavy tendencies, as we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, we know where the ball will go.

To his credit, Jared Goff has attempted no fewer than 30 passes in four straight games. Defenses have blitzed him on 40.5% of his dropbacks. And, for the most part, Goff has turned his greatest weakness into a minor strength. The Lions' QB ranks in the top 10 for passing success rate (53.3%) and passing yards (373). 

OC Ben Johnson expected DC Brian Flores to try to heat up Goff. Flores sent five or more on 63.4% of his dropbacks, and Goff responded with 250+ passing yards and a score. And after seeing how susceptible the Vikings’ defense can be against big plays from the Packers, we could be in for a big game from Detroit’s offense.

If one game could encapsulate how to approach the Lions from a fantasy perspective, it was Week 16. Amon-Ra St. Brown (8 targets) and Sam LaPorta (12) combined for 62.5% of Goff’s looks. No other player had more than three passes thrown their way. And with Jameson Williams suffering an ankle injury, we can’t even count on their WR2 for potential fantasy production in Week 18. So, naturally, we should turn to their backfield.

David Montgomery still has the starting role, but Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t too far off an RB1 workload. Gibbs was one of the pass-catchers to benefit from Williams’s absence, as the rookie rusher got three targets. His target share has been oscillating over the last four games, but he’s gotten more work in another area: short yardage. 

Montgomery has typically taken these totes and either converted on a third down or plowed into the end zone for a score. Gibbs's slight uptick in touches from inside the five-yard line is encouraging. However, we all know we’re more likely to see #5 and not #26 if the Lions get into scoring position on Sunday.

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