Week 2 Waiver Wire Report. Target the Ravens' Backfield.
Set our rosters. Watch football. Make waiver claims. Rinse and repeat.
It’s the start of Week 2, and we’re already back into the cycle of redraft season. But, even with some live action under our belts, let’s take a beat.
Of course, fantasy managers should react to what they saw over the weekend. We got clarity on some situations, saw multiple highlight reels, and will want to click on the hot option. But there are months of action ahead of us. A one-week sample shouldn’t dictate our season.
So, keep in mind who you’re dropping to churn your roster. And I’ll provide as much context as possible to guide your decisions. Now, let’s dig into the potential adds for this week.
Injury Round-Up
- Colts
- Evan Hull (knee) – exited in the third quarter with a knee injury
- Steelers
- Diontae Johnson (hamstring) – pulled up after a big gain and was taken out
- Ravens
- J.K. Dobbins (ankle) – got rolled up on and tore his Achilles
- Eagles
- Rashaad Penny (lack of team confidence) – a healthy scratch in Week 1
Waiver Claims
The List
- Ravens RBs Justice Hill and Gus Edwards
- Chargers RB Joshua Kelley
- Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier
- Rams WR Puka Nacua
- Rams RB Kyren Williams
- Steelers WR Allen Robinson
- Stash: Titans RB Tyjae Spears
Running Back
Just In Case: Kenneth Gainwell, RB - Eagles (vs. Vikings)
After Penny was a healthy scratch, I assumed D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell would split reps against New England. Swift got two touches.
Meanwhile, Gainwell got all the red-zone carries and was third in targets per route run (0.25) among the pass-catchers.
I’m still holding out hope for Penny, but we can’t ignore this type of workload on the Eagles’ offense.
Budget: 40-45% FAAB
Justice Hill and Gus Edwards, RB - Ravens (at Bengals)
Here’s where reacting, but not overreacting, may decide your season. J.K. Dobbins’ injury opens up opportunities for the rest of the backfield. But we only got about a quarter and a half to see how the Ravens would handle the fallout.
Sep 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill (43) reacts after running for his second touchdown of the third quarter against the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Justice Hill got the first carry after the injury (and scored a touchdown), but Gus Edwards got the two-point conversion. Ultimately, Edwards outcarried Hill (8 to 7), and the two ran a pair of routes, per TruMedia. However, Hill got the only two red-zone carries. Plus, there are issues to consider:
- Baltimore had a two-score lead for most of the second half.
- Lamar Jackson’s PROE went from +1% in the first half to -5% with a lead; we don’t know how often the team will use the RBs in a tighter game.
- The Ravens signed Melvin Gordon, cut him, and he’s sitting on the practice squad.
Prioritizing Hill and Edwards should be a no-brainer. At least for Week 2, we should expect double-digit touches for each against a Cincinnati team that just allowed 4.0 and 4.2 yards after contact per attempt to Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford. I’m comfortable with 10-15% FAAB bids, but let’s see how the team addresses the position with some time to breathe.
Budget: 10-15% FAAB
For more, check out our Waiver Wire tool for FAAB recommendations.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers (at Titans)
Kelley’s 16-91-1 rushing stat line was enough for me to take notice. In 2022, no other RB on the team had more than 10 carries in a single game. So, let’s contextualize Week 1 for the Chargers’ potential RB2.
Austin Ekeler had a 62% snap rate last season, which declined to 53.9% against the Dolphins on Sunday. Consequently, Kelley saw a bump in action. He was on the field for 44.7% of LA’s plays and split carries with Ekeler at 16 apiece. And the peripherals for the UCLA product look good, too.
- Short-Yardage Situations (3 or fewer yards): five attempts (Kelley) to two (Ekeler)
- Red Zone Attempts: Five to four
- Routes per Dropback: 37.5% to 57.5%
The last two are the most encouraging. Kelley earned 18 totes inside an opponent’s 20-yard line last season. He’s almost a third of the way there after one game in ’23. And while he mostly got a cardio workout in the passing game (just one target), his routes per dropback have doubled since last year (17.5%).
With the game remaining a one-score contest throughout, we can assume some stability in the usage. And the Chargers were second in EPA per drive as an offense.
While Kelley’s emergence dings Ekeler’s upside, I’d be (slightly) aggressive on getting another piece of this offense (15-20% FAAB).
Note: Two things. First, Austin Ekeler's ankle injury got my antennae up and I'm comfortable being a bit more aggressive on him. Also, the Chargers were much more run-heavy than last season (-5.4% PROE in Week 1 vs. +5% in '22). Both points may lead to more volume in the coming weeks.
Budget: 15-20% FAAB
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (vs. Packers)
The sophomore RB forced a 40-60 split with Bijan Robinson and showed us why the Falcons were right to use him as a starter down the stretch in ’22.
- EPA per rush: 0.21 (Allgeier) to -0.15 (Robinson)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 3.7 to 3.1
- Explosive run rate: 20.0% to 10.0%
Atlanta ended 2022 with a -14.1% pass rate over expectation (PROE) and opened the ’23 season at -12.5%. With the potential volume for both RBs, Allgeier should be on everyone’s radar
Budget: 5-7% FAAB
Kyren Williams, Rams (vs. 49ers)
The drum beat for Williams was there in training camp. And then we saw it all come together in Week 1.
Williams doubled Cam Akers’ snap count (51 to 25) while securing 40.5% of the team carries. Despite fewer attempts, the rookie had more high-value touches (eight to three). Plus, he earned the only RB targets from Matthew Stafford.
Williams is a mid-level priority target, as his Week 2 outlook isn’t as favorable. I’d have said the same about Seattle coming into Week 1, but the 49ers only gave up 41 rushing yards to Pittsburgh last week. But with matchups against the Bengals and Colts in Weeks 3 and 4, Williams could find his way into your lineup.
Budget: 5% FAAB
Zack Moss, Colts (at Texans)
Deon Jackson lost more fumbles (two) than gained first downs (one). Evan Hull will need to have his knee imaged. Even Anthony Richardson got banged up.
Moss got in limited practices leading up to Week 1, and his debut may be imminent. The Colts were 31st in rushing efficiency against the Jaguars but had the 12th-most snaps in the red zone, giving Moss some viability as an RB3.
Budget: 3-5% FAAB
Stash: Tyjae Spears, Titans
Panic!
For context, Derrick Henry started the game for Tennesse, but there was a penalty on the first play. He switched out for Tyjae Spears, and calamity ensued online. Regardless, we still saw plenty of the Titans’ rookie.
Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears (32) runs into the end zone as he scores against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn., Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023.
Spears out-snapped Henry 33 to 28 but only got three totes. However, Tennessee succeeded in scheming up attempts for him in the passing game. With the Titans needing more playmakers, Spears could be a worthwhile stash in deeper formats.
Budget: 1% FAAB
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua, Rams (vs. 49ers)
Like Kelley, I didn’t expect a Puka Nacua explosion in Week 1. If anything, I was on Tutu Atwell coming into the week.
Don’t get me wrong, it was still awesome to see Atwell with a 9-119-0 receiving line, but Nacua’s production may be more repeatable after looking at his Week 1.
The Rams’ rookie WR ran 35 routes in Week 1. That’s on par with Deebo Samuel (34), Calvin Ridley (34), and Ja’Marr Chase (34). But his 15 targets puts his targets per route run (0.43) in the same conversation as Tyreek Hill (0.43) and DeAndre Hopkins (0.35).
His 42.9% air yard share matched Hill’s for first among all WRs.
And Nacua didn’t do it through high-percentage looks from the slot.
Only Chris Olave (4.4), Hill (5.3), and (surprisingly) Josh Reynolds (6.2) posted higher marks in yards per route run (YPRR) than Nacua (3.9) from the perimeter in Week 1. If he’s flashing the ability to win on the outside this early (and Matthew Stafford continues to be aggressive through the air), Nacua will be a viable flex play moving forward.
Budget: 5-7% FAAB
Allen Robinson, Steelers (vs. Browns)
Robinson was third in target share for the Steelers in the first half, tied with Pat Freiermuth at 15.8%. He was the only pass-catcher without a red-zone target through two quarters. But naturally, after Johnson’s injury, the veteran stepped into a more prominent role.
Robinson tied for the most targets on the squad over the final two quarters. All his targets came from the slot, which may work in his favor as Kenny Pickett was under duress on 36.7% of his dropbacks in Week 1. Week 3 against the Raiders might be the better time to start him, but Robinson has a more straightforward path to looks over the next few weeks
Budget: 3-5% FAAB
Tight End
Hayden Hurst, Panthers (vs. Saints)
Hurst had the fifth-highest target share among TEs in Week 1 (22.6%), with two targets on two routes (and a score) in the red zone. But his utility as a fantasy starter hinges on the health of his WRs.
We can’t expect the same level of participation when D.J. Chark returns and Adam Thielen is back to full strength. Fantasy managers should check the practice reports (and we’ll be doing the same), but Hurst has streaming upside for Week 2 against the Saints.
Budget: 1% FAAB
