Week 3 Matchup of the Week. Bills @ Commanders Breakdown.
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders
I love the first few weeks of the regular season.
It’s a time when we get to learn about each team. What we see on the field challenges our offseason priors, and it makes us look back at last season to square it all. Plus, we can make grand statements that will (likely) look ridiculous in a month.
Like this one: The Washington Commanders are better than the Buffalo Bills.
Well, I mean, one team is undefeated, and the other lost to the Jets piloted by Zach Wilson. #TeamWinz have to count for something. But the Commanders’ dominance loses strength once you get past both win-loss columns.
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Buffalo Bills Week 3 Outlook
The Bills are one of six teams in the top 12 for EPA per rush and EPA per dropback. Josh Allen can (usually) beat you through the air. Meanwhile, the trio of James Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray can break or avoid tackles. They sometimes do both on the same attempt. Buffalo has a balanced type of offense that should give any defense fits. And it all starts with No. 17.
After a mistake-prone Week 1, Josh Allen was back on his game against the Raiders. The word “decisive” comes to mind when reviewing the game. Allen’s average time to throw was down and he leaned on Buffalo’s short-area options more (he threw ten air yards or less on 62.1% of his dropbacks). But the tell-tale sign that OC Ken Dorsey settled his QB down was Allen’s lack of scrambles.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates a touchdown in a 38-10 win over the Raiders. Credit: Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK
Allen hasn’t had a game with zero scrambles since 2020. At the same time, his entire arsenal got involved in the passing game. It meant fewer targets to his WRs (third-lowest target rate for WRs since 2020), which meant less for Stefon Diggs.
But Allen’s top option still tied for the most overall looks (7) and was the only WR with more than one attempt thrown his way in the red zone. Regardless, being on an offense with the fourth-most yards per drive allows fantasy managers to get interested in other players connected to the Bills. Luckily, Dalton Kincaid already had our interest before the season even started.
At first glance, Kincaid’s box score looks worrisome. His snap rate dropped to 62.2% after a solid outing during the season opener (79.4%), and the rookie TE only has nine targets to Dawson Knox’s ten. For their offseason ADP gap, we expected more. But his peripherals are encouraging.
- Targets per route run: 10.5% in Week 1, 26.1% in Week 2
- Air yard share: 1.6%, 22.7%
- Targets out of 12 personnel (Kincaid and Knox on the field): 5.0%, 27.3%
Kincaid has become a larger branch in Allen’s decision tree in just a couple of weeks. Against the Raiders, the Utah product had a higher share of the team’s air yards than Diggs. And, like the above highlight (well…) highlights, Kincaid’s versatility as a blocker who can release for short-yardage gains is invaluable to Allen.
With Washington’s defensive front getting pressure on 52.4% of Russell Wilson’s dropbacks last week, an Allen-Kincaid connection looks like the perfect pairing to short-circuit the Commanders’ defensive approach. However, James Cook has the potential to do the same thing on his own.
As expected, Cook has maintained the lead role in the Bills’ backfield. His 59.2% snap rate and 61.7% of the team’s carries lead the RB trio. But his improvement as a rusher is a welcome surprise.
Last season, Cook ranked 23rd and 28th among all RBs (min. 50 carries) in EPA per rush and yards after contact per attempt. By those metrics, he compared well to rushers like Brian Robinson and Zack Moss.
This season? He’s top 20 in both areas.
Cook’s 4.4 yards after contact per attempt are more than Bijan Robinson’s (4.0). And they have the same explosive rushing rate (17.2%). Washington still finished in the bottom 10 for rushing EPA allowed despite getting back Chase Young for Week 2.
Cook’s Week 3 matchup not only sets him up for a solid outing as a runner, but his 13.3% target share (14th among all RBs) should secure his position in the high-end RB2 discussion for Sunday and beyond.
Washington Commanders Week 3 Outlook
On Washington’s side, let’s give some credit where it’s due.
OC Eric Bienemy has made the offense functional. And I’m using "functional" purposefully not to overhype the squad or oversell the QB. But, at 2-0, it works.
The Commanders are 12th in EPA per drive after being 27th last season. Their 35-point outing on Sunday was their highest mark in any game since 2020. But their success has come at a cost.
In ’22, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel accounted for 44% of Washington’s fantasy points. As I mentioned, the offense wasn’t efficient, but it was a concentrated squad. So, we knew who to start and how to set expectations based on matchups. Through two weeks of this year, fantasy managers can’t apply the same process.
The same WR group only represents 29.1% of the fantasy points generated by Washington. Three different TEs have multiple targets. Both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson are part of the passing attack. In the year of our Lord 2023, Logan Thomas has more receiving yards than Jahan Dotson. And OC Bienemy is right to give Sam Howell this many options at his disposal. However, Howell isn’t the best at maximizing their talents yet.
The former UNC QB ranks 28th in air yards per attempt (5.9). Surprisingly, he’s just ahead of Geno Smith (5.7). But one of the main differences between the two passers, including Geno’s propensity to find himself in hilarious mic interactions, is their downfield aggression. Smith’s top 12 in attempts of 20 air yards or more. Howell has two throws in this range.
Howell has the same number of deep ball attempts as Gardner Minshew.
But I’m still leaving the light on for McLaurin.
McLaurin still has the highest air yard share (28.8%) of the Commanders’ pass-catchers despite lagging behind Thomas and Dotson in total targets. McLaurin is responsible for half (1) of Howell’s deep-ball completions, and WR1s have been serviceable against the Bills’ secondary.
Sep 10, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) runs pass Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker (3) after a first half catch at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Davante Adams laid a 6-84-1 statline on Buffalo before getting concussed. Plus, Garrett Wilson was at least able to find the paint and put up 14.4 PPR points with Zach Wilson. McLaurin’s yet to get a look from Howell once the Commanders get into scoring position. But the veteran WR is the only Washington receiver with targets in contested situations. And he has the highest contested catch rate on the team.
Dotson’s speed will allow him to sneak by the Bills for an explosive play. He might haul in a touchdown downfield. Regardless, McLaurin’s air yards and ability to fight through traffic against a tough coverage unit should keep him in the WR2 conversation for Week 3. But the Commanders’ backfield has my eye more so than the passing attack.
Brian Robinson has taken over Washington’s ground game. I expected a traditional split between Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Heck, I leaned more toward Gibson over the offseason. OC Bienemy got some utility out of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon vaulted into the RB2 ranks with his usage on passing downs. And with Gibson being a receiver in college, his fit with the new OC was perfect.
Until Week 1 arrived.
Gibson fumbled against the Cardinals on his third carry, and HC Ron Rivera banished him to the shadow realm. Since then, he’s had two attempts. Meanwhile, Robinson has carried the ball 37 times. And he’s been efficient with his carries, too.
The second-year runner ranks top 20 in EPA per rush and yards after contact per attempt. Robinson has more rushing yards than Derrick Henry and more receiving yards than Tony Pollard. Gibson, the guy everyone expected to be the passing-down RB, actually has fewer targets than Robinson. And if his share holds, he has the chance to be a contrarian option for Week 3.
Let’s look at the two primary RBs to face the Bills in 2023: Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs.
Hall not only smoked the Bills on two explosive runs of 26 and 83 yards but also added in a long catch-and-run for 20. His speed and dual-threat ability were too much. But OK, let’s hop to Week 2 with Jacobs. Buffalo tightened up their front and gave Jacobs a career-low single-game rushing total (-2 yards). But, Jacobs ripped off 51 yards on 5 catches as a receiver.
Enter Brian Robinson.
Robinson is tenth in explosive rushing rate (8.1%), right behind Christian McCaffrey (9.5%). And Robinson has the receiving work to complement anything he can produce on the ground. There’s no doubt Buffalo will force Washington into a pass-heavy approach as the match unfolds. But given Robinson’s opportunities as a runner and receiver, he’ll be the RB to roster from Washington.
