Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Tiers. Kyren Williams' RB1 Workload.

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 4 of the fantasy football season.

Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.

Note: Players are now tiered across all positions (RB, WR and TE) to help with flex decisions in larger formats. Because of this, TEs might not have a player deserving of Tier 1 compared to RBs and WRs.

Last updated: 5:15 p.m., Sept. 28. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Week 4

Tier 2 – Justin Fields

Fields is off to a rough start in 2023. He was drafted as a top-six option as fantasy managers dreamed of a leap in passing production after the Bears added D.J. Moore. All the brain power in fantasy football land pointed to how much Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts improved after adding Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown, and thought Fields would do the same.

Unfortunately, Fields has gone in the opposite direction. His completion rate is fourth-worst in the NFL at 57%. Only Zach Wilson and Bryce Young average fewer yards passing per game.

Despite all of this, fantasy managers should show patience with Fields. While he hasn’t yet broken any of the long-rushing TDs that boosted his box scores in 2022, the underlying utilization is present. 

Fields has accounted for 21% of the Bears’ designed rush attempts, which ranks third only behind Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts. His 11% scramble rate is the second-highest in the NFL.

Fields has 25 total rushing attempts between designed rushes and scrambles — the most in the league. At 8.3 carries per game, he is on pace for 142 totes. Since 2011, QBs with at least 130 attempts average 22 fantasy points per game. If we limit that to QBs who also threw for less than 3,000 yards, it is 19.3.

Fields remains a great BUY-LOW candidate and is due for a big bounce-back game.

<Broncos defense enters scene stage left>

Sorry for being overly dramatic, but Denver’s defense is atrocious. According to PFF grades, they can’t do anything right.

• Overall defense: 40.4 (32nd)
• Run defense: 41.3 (31st)
• Tackling: 28.9 (32nd)
• Pass rush: 63.7 (27th)
• Coverage: 42.0 (31st)

To put it in simple terms, The Broncos allow the fifth-most passing yards (292) and most passing TDs (three) per game. Things don’t improve against the run, where they cough up the most yards (178) and the most TDs (2.3) per contest.

Labeling a struggling player like Fields as a SMASH play is risky, but all the data points towards a blowup game. Look for Fields to break a long run this weekend and register his best passing game of the season. 

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Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Week 4

Tier 2 – Kyren Williams

Williams came up small in the Week 3 box score with only nine points thanks to some misfires by Matthew Stafford, but the underlying utilization was once again pristine.

The second-year RB won’t be confused with Christian McCaffrey with the ball in his hands, but he sees similar usage. Combining attempts and targets, Williams registered 17, 23 and 17 opportunities over the first three weeks. 

No other back has a higher snap share than Williams’ 86%. With his ascending role in the passing game and high-leverage snaps inside the 5-yard line, Williams is a serious threat to finish as a top-12 RB. He can thrive in any game script. 

The Rams know Williams can’t handle this large of a workload, but they don’t trust their other options right now. We are currently projecting Williams below all of his utilization averages in Week 4 because he is in outlier territory. While things could come down some for the undersized back, we shouldn’t expect a dramatic dip unless the Rams add stronger competition.

The overall market remains slow in adjusting to the reality of Williams’ role.

Williams is my 12th-ranked player in Week 4, seven spots ahead of industry consensus.

Tier 2 – Kenneth Walker III

Walker is off to a blazing start with RB24, RB13 and RB3 finishes, and his underlying efficiency data backs up his 20-point-per-game average. The second-year RB is above or at historical RB1 thresholds across the board.

• 10-plus yard attempts: 12.8% (RB1 = 11.5%)
• Average yards after contact: 3.09 (RB1 = 3.1)
• Forced missed tackles: 29.8% (RB1 = 19%)
• Targets per route run (TPRR): 20% (RB1 = 20%)
• Yards per route run (TPRR): 1.78 (RB1 = 1.29)

Last season we saw Walker’s rushing prowess on full display, but he fizzled in the passing game as the season progressed. If he has staying power in that department, it could keep him among the top 12 options for the season.

The biggest challenge for Walker is keeping Zach Charbonnet off the field. The rookie second-round pick has the versatility to play on passing downs and steal work inside the 5-yard line. In Week 3, Charbonnet’s role almost doubled.

In the first half, Charbonnet out-snapped Walker 53% to 34%, so this wasn’t just a game script thing. While this is a situation to monitor, Walker still registered a season-high 18 rushing attempts in Week 3. If he gives up some passing-down reps but keeps a firm hold on the lead rushing role, that isn’t a bad outcome. 

Plus, Walker’s Week 4 matchup is juicy. The Giants have a leaky pass defense, but they have also let opposing rushers slip through their fingers for 138 yards per game. New York ranks 28th in run defense and 27th in tackling per PFF.

Walker is my RB6 and my No. 16 player overall this weekend.

Tier 3 – Derrick Henry

The start of the 2023 season has not been kind to Henry, who averages only 10.6 points. When we look under the hood, things don’t get any better — the King is running on empty.

• 10-plus yard attempts: 3.9% (Below RB5 territory)
• Average yards after contact: 2.73 (Below RB4 territory)
• Forced missed tackles: 9.8% (Below RB5 territory)

To make things worse, the Titans have trailed by 4 or more points on almost half of their snaps. While the team remains committed to the run, it hasn’t been with the same doggedness that Mike Vrable has shown in the past. Historically a team with one of the lowest dropback rates over expected (DBOE), in 2023, they sit only slightly below the NFL average at -2%.

Henry has never been much of an option in the passing game, but last season additional routes led to a few extra targets that helped in trailing game scripts. That isn’t the case this season, with Tyjae Spears dominating passing-down work.

On a positive note, Henry is the lead option in the run game, and if the Titans can keep games closer, he still has 20-plus touch potential. We saw him tote the rock 25 times in Week 2.

If there is a week for the big dog to get right, it is against the Bengals, whose offense isn’t operating at 100% with Joe Burrow battling a calf injury. That factor will give the Titans a chance to keep a game close, and Cincinnati has been underwhelming against the run, allowing 152 yards per contest. The Browns and Ravens roasted the Bengals for 206 and 178 yards on the ground.

In an as-good-once-as-he-ever-was performance, look for Henry to register his first 100-yard game of the season and punch in at least one score.

Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Week 4

Tier 2 – Tee Higgins

Higgins had two duds in three games. In Week 1, he posted a solid 24% target share, but only 14% were catchable, leading to zero fantasy points. He bounced back with 29 points in Week 2, reminding us why we drafted him but fell back to WR66 in Week 3 with only four points thanks to multiple drops.

The connection between Joe Burrow and his receivers has been hit or miss, with the QB working his way through a calf injury. They just haven’t been able to get the practice reps, but Burrow showed signs of life last weekend with 242 yards and the team showed confidence in him by dropping back to pass 13% above expected on Monday night.

More good news: Burrow registered a full practice participation on Wednesday.

Even more good news: The Bengals play the Titans in Week 4.

Tennessee allows 300 yards per game via the air — the third-most in the NFL and is a bottom-five EPA pass defense. Derek Carr threw for 305 and a TD, Justin Herbert tagged them for 305 and 2 TDs, and a struggling Deshaun Watson got right with 289 yards and 2 TDs.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) catches a pass while warming up before the AFC championship NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

In a pass-first offense against a pass-funnel defense, we should expect a big rebound game. Higgins’ 24% target share tells us he is still doing his thing, and once this offense clicks, fantasy managers are going to like the results.

I have Higgins 10 spots ahead of industry consensus as my WR14. He has WR1 upside in Week 3.

Tier 3 – George Pickens

Pickens’ target-earning ability was in question heading into 2023 after posting a lowly 14% TPRR in his rookie season. Yeah, the highlight reel catches were plentiful, but the overall integration into the offense was lackluster.

Since the injury to Diontae Johnson, we have seen Pickens’ route tree expand. After posting a 15.6 aDOT as mostly a vertical threat in his rookie campaign, he is at 11.4 through three games, and his target share is blossoming.

To steal a saying from my granddad… BOY HOWDY!

Pickens has always had the big-play ability to keep him in that boom-bust WR3 conversation, but with this development, he is climbing the ranks.

We have the potential for loads of receptions and big plays sprinkled throughout. Those are the underpinnings of a WR1 profile; the second-year WR could soon force his way into that conversation.

The market is a bit slow on the uptake with the evolution of Pickens’ role with Johnson out. I am 10 spots ahead of industry consensus, and Pickens is inside my top 36 players for Week 4.

Tier 3 – Jakobi Meyers

Meyers demonstrated WR2-worthy target-earning ability as a Patriot, but he’s soared to new heights. The Raiders love to use two tight ends and fullback formations, which means fewer three-WR sets, which reduces target competition. When you combine that with Meyers’ already proven target-earning prowess, you get a 33% target share in two games played.

His 34% TPRR ranks third in the NFL for WRs with a 50% route participation or higher. Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams are the only two names ranked higher. Not too shabby, Mr. Meyers.

I could stop here, and most folks would know to get this man into lineups. But there is more.

The Raiders’ Week 4 opponent is the Chargers, and the Bolts have been lit up for 360 receiving yards per game (most) and 2.3 TDs (third-most). The Raiders aren’t expected to score much this weekend with the bottom-seven team total (21.5), but this is the type of game where we could see unexpected fireworks, or Meyers can just get there on pure volume in PPR and half-PPR formats without a score.

Meyers is a SMASH play in Week 4, and I have him 10 spots ahead of industry consensus as a top 50 overall option.

Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Week 4

Tier 5 – Darren Waller

Reminder: I have leveled my tiers across RB, WR and TE to help with flex lineup decisions. Travis Kelce is my highest-rated TE in Week 4, and he is in Tier 2 due to the change in process based on feedback (thanks!).

Deciphering Waller’s start to 2023 requires context. First, a hamstring injury limited him to a 52% route participation in Week 1 in a blowout loss to the Cowboys.

fSecond, the Giants ran into another buzzsaw defense named the 49ers in Week 3. San Francisco threw a lot of coverage at Waller, and when combined with pressure on Daniel Jones, we saw an uncharacteristic 42% catchable target rate for the big TE.

So, really, we have seen one healthy game against a normal defense, and that was the Cardinals in Week 2, where Waller delivered 14 PPR points as the TE4 on the week. Waller is still the leader in this passing game, with a 20% target share.

In a matchup against the Seahawks this weekend, being the leading target earner is a really good thing. Seattle allows 341 yards per game to opposing pass catchers – the second-most in the NFL. The Giants also carry a healthy team total of 24 points heading into Monday night in a game that could offer shootout upside (-1 spread).

Waller is my TE6 this weekend and comes in eight spots ahead of industry consensus in my overall ranks and has TE1-overall upside in a tasty matchup.