Week 4 Matchup of the Week. Dolphins @ Bills Breakdown.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

I know this is just a game preview, but I wonder how many DFS lineups will revolve around this game.

They combined for 107 points last week. The Dolphins rank first in EPA per play, and the Bills are nipping at their heels (fins?) at third. And both offenses are succeeding in the ways we want for fantasy.

After a shaky season opener, Josh Allen is back in the top 10 after dicing up the Commanders in Week 3. The Bills are eighth in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Allen is second in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Everything looks as expected.

Well, almost everything.

Part of Allen’s appeal for fantasy was his mobility. The 6’5”, 237 lb. passer will still take off when needed, but it’s not as frequent compared to years past. Allen has a career-low 4.7% designed rushing rate through three weeks. We’ll dive in a bit more in a minute, but the shift hasn’t been as detrimental for fantasy.

On the flip side, Miami looks like they’re going to the Super Bowl. If I could pinpoint any change in Tua Tagovailoa’s game from last year to now, it’s swagger. The man has style. And his demeanor has filtered down to the rest of the team. It’s not much of a surprise the Bills are favored by slightly less than a field goal (-2.5) at home. Regardless, let’s dive into the Dolphins’ offense (Get it? Dive? Because they’re Dolphins.) and see who all we can trust in our rosters.

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Miami Dolphins Week 4 Outlook

OK, start everyone from Miami.

Wait, sorry. I should clarify.

Tua has the lowest pressure rate of any QB through three weeks. As a result, he simultaneously has the fastest average time to throw (2.24 seconds) and the fourth-highest passing aDOT (9.6 yards). But it’s not like the entire passing game relies on explosive plays.

On throws of 10 air yards or less, Tua is averaging 0.54 EPA per dropback. For reference, Patrick Mahomes’s best single-season mark across all throws was 0.33. But Mahomes didn’t have the same juice Tua currently has at his disposal.

Sep 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) congratulates running back Raheem Mostert (31) after scoring a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Well, Mahomes did have Tyreek Hill. The vet speedster accounts for 34.7% of the team’s targets. He’s everywhere. Hill has generated more first downs (21) than DeVonta Smith’s earned targets (20). And after solid outings from other WR1s (Garrett Wilson 5-34-1, Davante Adams 8-84-1, Terry McLaurin 6-41-0), Hill will garner most of the attention from the Bills’ secondary. However, Hill isn’t the only WR that can threaten a defense deep.

Jaylen Waddle will return after missing Week 3 with a concussion. Last year, Hill and Waddle were one of the best WR duos in the league. In the first two weeks of the ’22 season, the pair was responsible for 60.5% of Tua’s targets. Together, the two totaled 524 yards by the end of Week 2. The rest of the team combined didn’t even amount to half of their production. 

Subsequently, the two had early-round ADPs over the offseason. But while Hill has met (and exceeded) expectations, Waddle has lagged behind to start the season. 

The third-year receiver’s target share has dropped to 15.1%. Meanwhile, ancillary options like Braxton Berrios (8 targets) and River Cracraft (7) have dug into Waddle’s workload. 

Berrios has the luxury of operating out of the slot. He’s earned more looks from Tua on third and fourth downs than Waddle so far this season. And Cracraft’s ability to get behind defenders in the red zone becomes another hurdle for Waddle to clear. But, assuming he plays, Week 4 uniquely sets up for Waddle to bounce back in a big way if fantasy managers were worried about tossing him into their starting lineup.

Garrett Wilson kept hope alive for the Jets with his acrobatic TD catch against CB Tre’Davious White in Week 1. The following week, Davante Adams shakes White for a score. Coincidentally, the 28-year-old veteran corner is the only Buffalo defender to allow the opposing team to score. And yet another coincidence, he’s yet to record a snap from the slot.

Waddle has run the fewest routes from the interior of the primary receivers in Miami. Plus, with his 4.4-40 speed, it’s not shocking to see him with more yards per target (14.2) than Hill (14.1) when thrown to along the perimeter. Seeing Waddle regain his previous share of the offense would be ideal.

However, given his downfield usage, it’ll only take a few plays for him to be a fantasy hit in Week 4. But even if he pulls defenders with him, that leaves the short area of the field open for attack from Miami’s backfield.

Buffalo’s defensive front is yet to give up a rushing score, but they’re no stranger to an explosive play or two. Breece Hall got loose for an 83-yard scamper, and Brian Robinson broke free for a 23-yarder on Sunday. It’d be a shame if the Dolphins had runners with speed.

Oh, wait. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert rank in the top 20 for explosive rushing rate. Yep, start all your Dolphins.

And I’d take a similar approach to the Bills’ offense, too.

Buffalo Bills Week 4 Outlook

As I mentioned, Josh Allen’s rushing rate has declined relative to last year. So, we’ve got more volume to distribute to his pass-game options. And we’ve got a couple extra this year. 

Don’t worry, though. Stefon Diggs is still Allen’s go-to guy. With a 30.2% target share, Diggs has more looks than the next two Bills receivers combined. The former Viking trails only Adam Thielen (another former Viking) in pass attempts thrown their way in obvious passing situations. With Courtland Sutton (11-91-1), DeVante Parker (8-57-0), and Keenan Allen (9-76-0) turning in solid days, we can expect similar output from Diggs.

Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) celebrates with Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) after catching a touchdown pass against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

However, I’m not sure which of the Buffalo ancillary pass-catchers I should start. Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid have shown flashes, and the production pie should be big enough for both to eat. But I have concerns. Let’s talk it out.

I expected Davis to function as the WR2. He’s second on the team in targets and air yards. That all makes sense. However, based on his peripherals, his WR2 title is kind of like being the assistant to the regional manager.

Davis has a 14.0% target share. Parris Campbell (16) has had more passes thrown his way. Allen Robinson (albeit on a lower aDOT) has more receptions. As I said, the big plays (well, play, singular) have kept our worries at bay. But he’s third in targets in obvious passing situations and tied with Latavius Murray in high-value looks. Davis profiles more as a WR3 with upside, given the game environment. But if he doesn’t find the end zone, it may be a tough day.

And I’m still confused about Kincaid’s usage. His target share and looks on a per-route basis shot up from Week 1 to Week 2. It looked like he was starting to get into a rhythm with Allen. However, in Week 3, he posted his lowest TPRR of the season (0.87) despite running a similar number of routes as the previous week.

And, of course, Dawson Knox got the only red-zone target. Talent aside, the inconsistent usage makes Kincaid a risky play for Week 4. David Njoku and Jake Ferguson offer a higher ceiling with an even safer floor until we see more from the rookie TE. In the meantime, he’s more of a bench stash if you can afford the roster spot.

But I’m most interested in Buffalo’s backfield.

James Cook has taken over the Bills’ ground game with 51.2% of the team’s carries. He ranks in the top 10 in rushing success rate and target share. For an RB to be this efficient with this much opportunity, with Josh Allen as his QB, we should value him like a top-6 fantasy asset.

There’s just one problem: his high-value touch rate.

Here’s how the red-zone carries (from inside the 10-yard line) have shaken out for Cook so far:

• Latavius Murray: 6
• Damien Harris: 4
• Cook: 3

Allen’s penchant for scrambling into the paint muddies the waters even more for the sophomore rusher. But at least he’s shown to be capable in every other facet of his game. And against the Dolphins, Buffalo will need everything Cook can offer.

Pass-catching RBs have averaged 4.9 PPR points just on their work through the air. Meanwhile, the only RB not to score on the ground against the Dolphins was Javonte Williams (likely because the Broncos were trailing the entire contest). Cook may be lacking the coveted red-zone role, but his workload as a rusher and receiver should keep him in the fringe-RB1 discussion for Week 4.