Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Weird. It’s the only word I can think of to describe this game.
To explain my confusion, let me rattle off some stats about Patrick Mahomes:
- At 0.16 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.16), Mahomes is just ahead of Baker Mayfield. At this point last year, he was first (0.30).
- Mahomes is 21st (no, not a typo) in CPOE. He’s currently behind Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.
- In Week 4, he threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1) for the first time since 2021
At the same time, the Vikings look like they used all their luck last season. They have the third-most fumbles of any team (8) but only recovered one. Kirk Cousins has the second-lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays per PFF (1.7%). However, he ranks sixth in total interceptions (4).
If this were 2022, fantasy managers would have this contest circled on their calendars. But after four weeks of play, it doesn’t look as straightforward as we may have thought coming into the season.
Chiefs Week 5 Outlook
For Kansas City, their funk is likely a confluence of multiple factors. The loss of OC Eric Bienemy has been Washington’s gain, as the Commanders are at least battling within the NFC East. Travis Kelce’s injury and slow start (TE7 behind Hunter Henry) certainly don’t help. And Mahomes has to get in sync with yet another batch of receivers.
In 2022, No. 15 threw a pass to 11 different receivers over the first month of the season. Five of them had double-digit targets. Those same numbers are up to 13 and seven, respectively. He’s throwing to more people more often. However, they’re not exactly ready for prime time.
Of Mahomes’s options with ten or more targets, Rashee Rice (Day 2 rookie pick) stands out. He’s 13th in yards per route run (2.5) with more YAC per reception than CeeDee Lamb. The only problem is, he has fewer air yards per target than Allen Robinson. And after Rice, it doesn’t get much better. However, at least Mahomes has a receiving option out of the backfield to keep the offense moving.
Oh, you thought I meant Jerick McKinnon? Not this year.
Isiah Pacheco has solidified his role as the Chiefs’ RB1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s injury throughout most of ’22 (and McKinnon’s re-signing with the team) created an ambiguous situation for their rushing attack. But after four games, the seventh-rounder has been the guy.
McKinnon still has his pass-catching role in long down and distance scenarios. Plus, he’s split red-zone snaps with Pacheco. But the Rutgers product has shown enough to keep the primary role, as his angry running style has made him one of the more efficient runners in the league. He ranks in the top 10 for broken tackle and success rate to go with his 8.4% target share. The Vikings’ defensive front has largely kept opposing RBs in check. But let’s look at who they’ve played.
- Week 1: Rachaad White, 17-39-0
- Week 2: D’Andre Swift, 28-175-1
- Week 3: Joshua Kelley, 11-12-0 (lol)
- Week 4: Miles Sanders (groin injury), 13-19-0
Obviously, Swift’s performance stands out. However, there are some similarities between the Eagles’ RB and Pacheco. They stack up when looking at adjusted yards after contact per attempt (4.12 to 4.16). Plus, the Chiefs’ offensive line can generate a similar amount of push to open up lanes (2.2 yards per contact to 1.9). And at RB19 in our ranks, he has the opportunity to exceed that rank in Week 5.
But Kelce could carry the crew on his own.
Keenan Allen (20-215-0) destroyed the Vikings’ interior coverage, with 106 of his yards coming from the slot. Besides Rice, Kelce has the highest target rate on inside routes, and he already has two scores from this alignment. Between Kelce and Isiah Pacheco, after D’Andre Swift trounced Minnesota for 175 yards on the ground, Mahomes may have another pedestrian statline.
But let’s see if the Vikings’ offense can answer back.
Vikings Week 5 Outlook
Let’s see if you can guess which receiver archetype has the best chance of succeeding against Kansas City’s secondary:
- Christian Kirk, 14-110-0
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, 9-71-1
- DJ Moore, 6-41-1
Luckily, Justin Jefferson has the most targets from the slot while maintaining a 30.7% target share. Last year’s WR1 still has a hold on the title, and the Chiefs will have their hands full, keeping Jefferson in check. But starting JJettas in fantasy isn’t a question fantasy managers have.
Start Alexander Mattison? That’s a question worth asking.
At RB21 in PPR leagues, fantasy managers should fire him up for Week 5. But his future as the Vikings' primary rusher may be uncertain. In Cam Akers’s first game with Minnesota, he took on 21.7% of the carries and ran a route on 28.5% of Kirk Cousins’s dropbacks. Ty Chandler never hit those marks. And Akers was more efficient than Mattison in his limited role.
Only David Montgomery has scored on the ground against the Chiefs. And since that Week 1 bout, Kansas City has allowed just seven rushing first downs. If Mattison continues to struggle, Akers might see more work. But in what projects to be a high-scoring affair (52.5-point total), Mattison should be in our lineups for one more week.
And don’t forget about T.J. Hockenson. Well, it’s hard to ignore the TE1 in fantasy right now. But, to be fair, being a top TE isn’t a high bar. And Hockenson has struggled to clear it at times.
Hockenson has failed to clear 50 yards in half of his games this season. In PPR leagues, nearly a quarter of his fantasy production has come from his two TDs, and both came in Week 3.
Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) makes a catch against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy managers will take his target share (fifth-most among TEs), and he’s right behind Mark Andrews in air yards. So, with enough looks from Cousins, Hockenson should be back in the TE1 ranks for Week 5. And against the Chiefs, the game environment sets up for a solid day from the former Detroit Lion.
Since DT Chris Jones’s return, Kansas City’s defense is in the top 12 in sack rate with an above-average pressure rate (35.8%). And while Cousins has been able to maneuver in the pocket if under duress, he’s typically looking to two guys: Jefferson and Hockenson. The Vikings’ TE is the only other pass-catcher with double-digit targets when Kirk has to make a play. And the results have worked in their (and our) favor.
Like Jefferson, starting Hockenson isn’t much of a question. He’s the TE3 in our ranks and has the target share and game environment to produce a strong fantasy outing.
However, with this data, fantasy managers should feel more confident about his upside after a dud this past Sunday.
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