Week 5 Waiver Wire Report. Michael Wilson Is Worth An Add.
It’s Week 5, and the start of the bye-week gauntlet begins. But the break is something of a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, fantasy managers will be without high-end options like Justin Herbert, DK Metcalf, and Kenneth Walker. On the flip side, it gives other guys some time to heal.
Austin Ekeler hasn’t played since Week 1, and Mike Evans left Sunday’s contest with an injury. Regardless, we need production. And after four games, we know a bit more about these offenses. Let’s dive into the waiver wire and see who’s worth picking up on Tuesday.
Injury Round-Up
- Buccaneers
- Mike Evans (hamstring)
- Bengals
- Tee Higgins (ribs)
- Broncos
- Javonte Williams (hip)
- Raiders
- Davante Adams (shoulder)
Waiver Claims
The List
- Romeo Doubs
- C.J. Stroud
- Jameson Williams
- Sam Howell
- Tyler Boyd
QB
C.J. Stroud, Texans
The Texans’ rookie now ranks inside the Top 10 for passing success rate and EPA per dropback. C.J. Stroud has eclipsed 300 yards in half of his starts, thrown at least one TD in three of four, and (critical for fantasy purposes) uses his legs.
Since Week 1, he’s had a designed rushing rate above 5.0%. The results have been QB1-worthy (QB12 on the season), and Stroud should be a popular streaming option against the Falcons this week (22nd in EPA per dropback allowed).
Sam Howell, Commanders
Sam Howell is an “all or nothing” option. In favorable situations, he has the seventh-best adjusted completion percentage. But watch out if a defense forces him to speed up his process. He’s thrown the most interceptions under pressure and has taken the most sacks of any QB.
Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
That said, he’s playing the Bears this weekend. They’re 25th in pressure rate and have just two QB takedowns through four weeks. At a +1% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE), Howell could sling it enough to reward fantasy managers in Week 5.
RB
Just in Case: Jaylen Warren, Steelers
Warren hit a season-high snap rate in Week 4 as the Steelers trailed the Texans. He maintained his usual share of the backfield carries (32.0%), but his target share also found a new maximum of 22.2%. Kenny Pickett’s injury may necessitate a stronger lean on the short-passing game by Mitch Trubisky. Regardless, his receiving work should make him a flex-worthy add if still available.
Just in Case Part 2: Cam Akers, Vikings
After moving to Minnesota, Cam Akers saw his first bit of action in Week 4. To be clear, it wasn’t a huge role:
- Rushing share: 21.7%
- Route rate: 33.3%
- High-value touches: 0
However, Akers and Alexander Mattison were the only RBs to earn a touch. Also, Akers had a higher success rate, generated more first downs per tote, and was the more efficient receiver. Coincidentally, Mattison’s efficiency picked up with Akers on the squad. Regardless, given his familiarity with the offensive system and dual-threat ability, let’s get ahead of any shift in Akers’ role.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos
Denver’s rookie rusher got the touchdown and had his highlight reel posted on social media. Naturally, fantasy managers will look for Jaleel McLaughlin, but I have concerns. Despite getting the score, it’s not like the Youngstown State product ran away with the job ([weak] pun intended):
- Rushing share (after Javonte Williams’ injury): 44.4% (McLaughlin) to 44.4% (Perine)
- Total snaps: 8 to 15
- Targets: 2 to 1
Sep 17, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin (38) runs for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Washington Commanders at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Samaje Perine is still a factor. Luckily, McLaughlin was the more efficient of the two.
However, the Jets (Denver’s Week 5 opponent) have given up just one positive rushing EPA performance this season (Isiah Pacheco on Sunday night). And Pacheco has the only rushing TD against New York. With Williams’ injury not as severe as it sounded during the game, McLaughlin becomes an RB to roster but not break the bank for.
If you don’t think you can get McLaughlin, put in a bid for Perine.
You can also wager on these two backs in Pick'em contests on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 when you sign up with code LIFE below!
WR
Romeo Doubs, Packers
Of all the Packers’ receivers, I had the most doubts about Romeo Doubs coming into the 2023 season. In ’22, Doubs functioned as the team’s X-receiver, running most of his routes from the outside. He still does. And with Jordan Love coming into the season as a first-time starter, high-percentage throws made more sense to ease him into the system.
With all the hype around Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave, Green Bay’s passing game didn’t need to focus on the perimeter. They already had Christian Watson. But Watson returned in Week 4 for TNF, and Doubs’ role didn’t shrink. In fact, it expanded:
- Routes per dropback (Weeks 1-3 to Week 4): 78.3% to 87.8%
- Target share: 21.1% to 38.2%
- Air yard share: 23.5% to 40.8%
- Targets per route run: 0.24 to 0.36
Remember that Watson was on a snap count, and Musgrave got knocked out midway through the game. Regardless, Love is first in air yards per attempt and sixth in deep-passing rate. He’s not your typical first-time starter. It gives Doubs (and Reed; more on him in a minute) more week-to-week stability than anticipated, making him the add of the week.
Quentin Johnston, Chargers
After Mike Williams' injury, we asked for a role change for Quentin Johnston, and the team delivered. Johnston’s route participation more than doubled (28.4% to 71.0%), and he moved from fifth on the team in targets to third.
Hopefully, Johnston will gain more of Herbert’s trust over their bye. In obvious passing situations, the rookie WR fell behind Donald Parham and the primary receivers. And he split routes with the TEs once the Chargers got into scoring position. It’ll be a slow burn rostering Johnston, but his usage trends are pointing in the right direction.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Michael Wilson scored two touchdowns on Sunday in yet another surprisingly competitive game for the Cardinals. Wilson had earned some offseason hype, so it’s good to see positive early-season returns. He’s my top WR add for the week, but I’ll add some context to his Week 4 performance.
Oct 1, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson (14) catches a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
- His 17.1% target share was the highest it’s been all season
- Wilson’s air yard share has fluctuated every game (36.6%, 18.3%, 33.6%, 19.0%)
- He was still third in targets on Sunday (behind Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz)
- Wilson was even third in red-zone targets (behind Ertz and Zach Pascal)
I’m not saying this to say Wilson is bad or lucky (well, catching two TDs on two red-zone targets is fortunate). It’s more to highlight his opportunity and what to expect. And, in the end, you should expect the production of a rookie WR attached to a (frisky!) Josh-Dobbs-led offense. Against the Bengals in Week 5, who’ve allowed the fifth-most explosive plays, Wilson could give us a repeat performance.
Jameson Williams, Lions
Jameson Williams gets to join the Lions a week early after a change in league policy. And Detroit could use the help. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are top-5 options at their respective positions. However, it’ll be tough for Jared Goff to continue relying on Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond every week to keep the offense moving.
On third and fourth down, the journeyman WRs account for 10 of Goff’s 36 attempts. And together, they’ve generated a third of the team’s first downs in those situations. But most were when they needed a few yards to convert. Goff’s only looked their way twice (out of 23 throws) in long down and distance scenarios. It’s been the Sun God and LaPorta.
Theoretically, Williams’ speed and efficiency would give the Lions depth and a more explosive nature than they’ve had through the first four weeks. And it’s not like Jahmyr Gibbs is making any headway as a receiver. So stash Williams with favorable matchups ahead (CAR, BAL, and LV over the next month) to see how he fits into the Lions' passing attack.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals
Tee Higgins missed the second half of Sunday’s game and could potentially miss Week 5. As a result, Tyler Boyd earned more targets than Ja’Marr Chase as the Bengals tried to mount a comeback. The Cincinnati slot man’s workload should expand over the next few weeks, lending itself to more fantasy production. However, the passing game is in complete disarray.
Joe Burrow has surpassed 250 yards in a game just once and only thrown for two scores. Depending on Higgins’ timeline, Boyd’s worth an add. But we need a healthy Burrow to warrant putting any non-Chase WR in our starting lineup.
Jayden Reed, Packers
Watson’s return put Reed’s fantasy prospects in doubt. Of course, adding a player that commands targets to your offense will reduce everyone’s workload. But it’s not like the Packers’ rookie disappeared.
- Routes per dropback (Weeks 1-3 to Week 4): 68.9% to 70.7%
- Target share: 21.1% to 14.7%
- Air yard share: 24.8% to 27.0%
- Targets per route run: 0.27 to 0.17
Most importantly, Reed still ran the most slot routes on the team, and Jordan Love still trusted Reed not just on high-percentage looks but downfield, too. The first-year receiver’s air yards actually increased compared to his three-week average. At worst, Reed becomes a matchup-based starter as the Packers’ offense continues to find itself with Love under center. Either way, I’d keep him on my bench through the bye weeks.
