Week 6 is the wrong week for this matchup.
Can we reschedule it?
I mean, don’t get me wrong. The Cardinals’ offense is still feisty. Despite losing to Cincinnati on Sunday, they were still league average in yards per play (5.2), matching the Chiefs' productivity on a per-play basis. But James Conner is out indefinitely. Plus, one of Arizona’s starting CBs left in Week 5 with a concussion.
Meanwhile, the Rams got a boost with Cooper Kupp’s return. And it’s not like he came back, was on a snap count, and turned in a modest stat line after missing a month of action. Matthew Stafford targeted Kupp six times…on the first of their eight drives. The only thing the triple-crown winner didn’t do in his ’23 debut was score a touchdown.
Regardless, at full strength, the playcallers on both sides have made each offense effective for both real and fantasy purposes. However, after Week 5, the Cardinals’ margin for error may be a bit thinner.
Cardinals Week 6 Outlook
But let’s start with the good parts of the Josh Dobbs experience.
Even after Sunday, the former Pittsburgh backup sits at 0.03 EPA per dropback. Here’s a quick list of notable passers he’s ahead of in the ranks:
- Dak Prescott (0.02)
- Kirk Cousins (0.0)
- Lamar Jackson (-0.06)
Heading into Week 5, he had a higher adjusted completion percentage (75.8%) than Justin Herbert (75.5%). And now, he’s generated more yards off of downfield throws (228) than Brock Purdy (214). But even better, Dobbs’s target tree is condensed enough that we have a sense of where the targets will go.
- Marquise Brown: 27.8% (target share), 26.1% (TPRR)
- Zach Ertz: 22.5%, 24.3%
No other pass-catcher has more than 20 looks from Dobbs. And Brown and Ertz hog all of the green-zone targets, too. Together, they account for 75.0% of the attempts. With the Rams ranked 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, Ertz continues to have starting potential in PPR leagues. However, a potential change in the backfield to rookie Emari Demarcado (who earned a 10.0% target share on Sunday) may lower Ertz’s volume in Week 6.
But let’s dig into the Cardinals’ backfield for a minute.
Demarcado took over for Conner and had the type of usage typically reserved for bell-cow RBs.
As a result, the rookie became a popular add on the waiver wire. But I have concerns.
Keaontay Ingram missed Week 5 with a neck injury after logging two limited practices heading into the weekend. Corey Clement was active on Sunday but only played on special teams. So, he’s not a factor. But looking at Ingram’s usage in games without Conner, Ingram is someone worth stashing.
- Rushing Share: 30.0%
- Green-zone touch rate: 27.3%
- Route Rate: 20.9%
- Target Rate: 5.4%
Ingram earned a touch in every facet of Arizona’s offense. Plus, he was the only rusher to get a touch in two-minute situations. Of course, this was an offense that featured Kyler Murray. And Eno Benjamin was still on the team.
With Ingram managing an injury, Demarcado will likely take on the lead role in the backfield. But Ingram will take away some work. Clement can steal a touch or two. Plus, Arizona has Damien Williams and Tony Jones lurking in the background. So, at best, Demarcado finds himself as the leader of a committee. And if the Cardinals’ offense struggles against LA’s defense, it’ll lower the freshman’s production even further.
Rams Week 6 Outlook
For the Rams, it was just good to see Kupp back out on the field. And for fantasy managers worried about Kupp co-existing with Puka Nacua, Los Angeles’s tight race with the Eagles on Sunday gave us some insight.
- Target share: 35.3% (Kupp), 32.4% (Nacua)
- Target share in obvious passing situations: 37.5%, 37.5%
- Air yard share: 40.8%, 37.5%
- TPRR: 30.0%, 26.8%
- Red-zone targets (inside the 10-yard line): 50.0%, 50.0%
HC Sean McVay didn’t just slot Nacua into the “Kupp role.” And, given how seamless Kupp’s return looked, it’s fair to say McVay had planned on the two working together. But the Cardinals’ defense doesn’t pose a similar threat as the Eagles. Plus, their offense isn’t as dynamic. In a less competitive matchup, it’s fair to think the touches may shift to one of the WRs. But against a secondary ranking in the bottom 6 for both pass rush and run stop win rate, both can be top-12 options in Week 6.
And there’s really no question about who controls the backfield.
Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs the ball in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Since the team jettisoned Cam Akers to Minnesota, Kyren Williams has the type of workload fantasy managers think Demarcado will get. After a month of starts, it’s hard to find an RB with better usage:
- Team Rush Share: (amongst all RBs – min. 20 carries) 4th
- Route Rate: 1st
- Team Target Share: 4th
Christian McCaffrey has Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell (when healthy) to let him rest. Derrick Henry has been battling with Tyjae Spears. Zack Moss, who’s ahead of Williams in team rush share at 73.6%, now has to deal with Jonathan Taylor’s return. All of the RB1s with elite usage have someone to take some of the load.
Kyren has Ronnie Rivers.
Rivers has touched the ball only 13 times this season. Craig Reynolds has seen the ball more often. So, with Williams’s projected role, we should expect top-12 results. And, given recent history, it’s a fair bar to set.
The Cardinals rank in the bottom 5 for run-stop win rate and rushing success rate. They’ve allowed two 100-yard rushers (Tony Pollard – Week 3, McCaffrey – Week 4) and at least one explosive play from an RB in three of five games. And pass-catching ball-carriers have a solid floor in PPR leagues.
Joe Mixon had the lowest output against Arizona with 13.4 PPR points on Sunday. Saquon Barkley accrued 27.2 points back in Week 2, and he only generated 63 yards on the ground. Williams’s death grip on the totes already puts him in rarified air when it comes to volume.
But with a role in the Rams’ passing game, an aerial attack that’s only gotten more potent with Kupp’s return, expect Williams in the top-10 discussion from here on out.
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