Week 6 Waiver Wire Report. Target Bears RBs.

I know we say this every year, but this season is different.

And after five weeks, it feels like it, right?

Injuries have caused seismic shifts across the league and our rosters each week. Honestly, I’m surprised folks still have any FAAB money.

From Puka Nacua to De’Von Achane, we’ve been fighting for top-12 options instead of churning our bench. And we still have teams on bye to go with health issues.

To help, I combed through Sunday’s usage trends to find the top waiver claims for Week 6.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

Injury Round-Up

• Bears
  • Khalil Herbert (ankle)
  • Roschon Johnson (head)
• Colts
  • Anthony Richardson (shoulder)
• Cardinals
  • James Conner (knee)
• Giants
  • Daniel Jones (neck)
• Texans
  • Tank Dell (head)
• Vikings
  • Justin Jefferson (hamstring)

Waiver Claims

The List

1. Roschon Johnson
2. Josh Downs
3. Jeff Wilson
4. Justice Hill
5. Emari Demarcado

Sam Howell, QB - Commanders

Let’s start here.

Luckily, sacks don’t count against us in fantasy football. But a combination of stalled drives and a weak secondary (allowed multi-TD performances in three of five games) leads to what we saw on Thursday night.

The Commanders have run the third-most drives (18) when trailing by two scores or more, and we can see a direct correlation in Sam Howell’s passing rate.

His 67 attempts in negative game scripts are behind only Daniel Jones, but Jones can’t boast the same pass-catching corps as Washington. It’s why Howell (1,349) currently has more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes (1,287).

And since he gets to face Atlanta this week (26th in pressure rate, 32nd in sack rate), if you started him this week as a fill-in, he’s worth considering again for Week 6.

Gardner Minshew, QB - Colts

The Colts are bracing for Anthony Richardson to miss more time after landing on his throwing shoulder, but, again, Gardner Minshew showed why he’s one of the best backups in the league. 

Indianapolis averaged 13.1 net yards per attempt in the second half on Sunday after hitting a 6.9 clip over the first two quarters and Minshew converted 66.7% of his throws in obvious passing situations with a CPOE of 11.9%. The only problem is he didn’t need to showcase his arm talent much.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew (10) draws back to pass as Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (98) moves in Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The Colts’ running game ranked fifth in EPA per rush, with Zack Moss hitting a career-high on the ground (165 yards). As a result, Minshew’s PROE tanked to -17.6%.

But with a divisional rematch against the Jaguars on tap, the same team that hung 31 points on them in Week 1, expect Minshew to drop back more often in Week 6.

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Roschon Johnson, RB - Bears

Two key pieces of information with this recommendation to consider:

1. Khalil Herbert’s injury and timeline to return are unknown, but placing him on IR is on the table.
2. Roschon Johnson is in the concussion protocol, but has extra time to clear as the team played in TNF.

Through four weeks, Johnson was keeping it interesting. Herbert took more of the snaps (57.0%), but the rookie was the more efficient runner. Roschon’s 0.07 EPA per rush ranked ahead of Christian McCaffrey’s (0.06). 

Chicago was using Johnson just enough to let us know they believed in his talent.

Getting aggressive to add Johnson is the right move.

It’s a tiny sample within a smaller set, but Chicago’s third in EPA per play over the last two weeks. Granted, they’ve played flawed teams, but the Vikings fit into the same bucket.

Given Johnson’s potential workload as the starter, get him on your roster now and follow the status of his health throughout the week.

Final note: D’Onta Foreman becomes the obvious option if Johnson doesn’t clear the protocol in time.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%

Justice Hill, RB - Ravens

We’re seeing Baltimore’s backfield coalesce around Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. However, it’s Hill with the role best suited for our purposes.

Remember, the pair divvied up the backfield immediately after J.K. Dobbins’ injury, but then Hill missed W3 with a foot injury. Meanwhile, the Ravens brought up Melvin Gordon against the Colts and Browns. Even Kenyan Drake got in the mix.

Sunday was the first time Hill and Edwards were healthy, and no other RB saw the field. Gordon remained inactive and, while Drake was available, didn’t get any action. But Hill did.

The vet saw over a third of the carries and, critically, had a 10.5% target share. Edwards didn’t even get a look. And with the Ravens’ WRs dropping multiple chances to win the game, Lamar Jackson will need more options moving forward, giving Hill mid-range RB3 value in PPR leagues.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 18%

Jeff Wilson, RB - Dolphins

We know De'Von Achane will miss some time, but it's unclear how long the speedster's absence will be. However, the silver lining (for Miami Dolphins' fans, not fantasy managers) is that there's still another player with some juice that can replace Achane.

Out of all rushers with 100 or more carries, Jeff Wilson ranked 8th in explosive play rate. He generated big plays at a higher rate than Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. Plus, HC Mike McDaniel didn't limit Wilson's usage to the ground game alone.

Jan 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (23) runs the ball as New York Jets safety Jordan Whitehead (3) pressures during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

While he ran fewer routes than Raheem Mostert (38.4% route rate to 46.8%), Wilson's 16.1% TPRR dominated the Dolphin's backfield. And with similar efficiency through the air, Wilson generated more fantasy points per snap than Mostert (0.4 to 0.3) in games with Tua Tagovailoa under center.

The only question is his health. Achane's injury speeds up the Dolphins' timeline of easing him back into action and Salvon Ahmed may take some of the work in Week 6, but expect Wilson to resume his opportunity share alongside Mostert sooner rather than later.

Emari Demarcado, RB - Cardinals

James Conner’s knee injury left the Cardinals’ backfield open for competition. So, Emari Demarcado took the job. 

All of it.

No other RB had a carry in the second half. Arizona’s rookie rusher got all eight totes. Demardco was the only rusher to run a route (and got two targets).

Keontay Ingram missed his second straight game due to a neck injury, and Corey Clement is a known commodity.

It makes sense the Cardinals (now 1-4) would want to get a better look at Demarcado should Conner miss time and against the Rams this week, who’ve allowed 100 rushing yards in three of five games, Demarcardo should be the top add for Week 6.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%

Chuba Hubbard, RB - Panthers

Looking at Hubbard’s stat totals won’t give you the complete picture.

I mean, sure, Chuba Hubbard had more touches than Miles Sanders after the two in Week 4. Hubbard was more efficient with his carries (55.6% success rate to Sanders’ 42.9%) and got more targets on a per-route basis.

All in all, Sunday was yet another reason to keep giving Hubbard the ball.

But while it was a one-score game, Sanders was the guy. The former Eagles’ RB had a 71.4% snap share with four times as many carries to start the match. Hubbard didn’t get most of his looks until the fourth quarter.

The Panthers rank bottom 10 in multiple team efficiency metrics from EPA per drive to number of plays in their opponent’s green zone. So unless there’s a larger shift in the work to Hubbard, there’s no need to be aggressive on the wire for the Panthers’ backup RB.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%

Eric Gray, RB - Giants

When Saquon Barkley missed Week 4, Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell split the carries, with Breida leading the backfield in touches.

The Giants’ star RB had to sit again on Sunday, but the rushing rotation wasn’t the same as the week before:

• Rushing share: 57.1% (Eric Gray), 42.9% (Breida)
• Red-zone touches: 1, 2
• Routes per team dropback: 34.9% - 1 target, 55.8% - 1 target

The box score indicates a tight race between the two RBs. However, while the game was still competitive in the first half, Gray had twice the carries. It took the score getting out of hand for Breida to earn more work. 

Barkley was a limited participant in practice throughout the week, so a W6 return may be possible. So, at worst, we know who to stash should Barkley miss more time.

Josh Downs, WR - Colts

I talked about Josh Downs ahead of Week 4, but I’m not pointing this out as a victory lap.

His role was different with Alec Pierce earning downfield shots against the Ravens. But by most metrics, Downs has solidified himself as the team’s WR2 after Sunday:

• Target share: 19.9% (Weeks 1-4), 25.0% (Week 5)
• Targets per route run: 20.8%, 26.1%
• Air yard share: 17.0%, 31.8%
• Air yards per target: 6.33, 9.0

The air yards per target part is what caught my eye. I saw Downs as a short-area option that required volume to make a real impact in fantasy. But both Richardson and Minshew looked at him in the intermediate parts of the field.

Plus, Downs’ target share equaled Michael Pittman’s in obvious passing situations. With the QB change, production might go down, but we can’t ignore the role of Downs in this passing attack.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR - Giants

On paper, this Wan’Dale Robinson recommendation looks like the “lite” version of suggesting Downs after Week 3.

Does he earn targets? Sure. He’s only played three games and has the same number of targets as Skyy Moore (17).

Is he getting a good cardio workout? Yep. He’s at a 50.0% route rate, ahead of teammate Parris Campbell. Not bad for a guy coming off an ACL tear from last November.

Are his targets downfield allowing him to gain more yards? Yeah, so, about that.

Robinson’s averaging 3.0 air yards per target. It could be because teams are pressuring Daniel Jones within 2.35 seconds of the snap. Plus, it certainly doesn’t help that Jones’ fastest average time to throw is 2.7 seconds. Regardless, Robinson has become a primary weapon for the Giants with his 30.2% TPRR.

But with Jones’ neck injury, Robinson becomes a “hope for volume” play in PPR leagues without much of a ceiling unless the offense can produce more scoring drives.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 8%

K.J. Osborn, WR - Vikings

Justin Jefferson's injury drops the ceiling for the Vikings' passing game, but we can find some value in the remaining receivers given the offense's +4% PROE through five weeks.

Enter K.J. Osborn.

Coming into Week 5, Osborn had a 94.1% route rate. Even better, he ran 64.3% of his routes from the slot. You'd think he'd be the type of player who'd frequently connect with Kirk Cousins, however, Osborn's struggled for targets with JJettas in the lineup.

Osborn was the cardio king with a 10.7% TPRR (ranking 76th out of 77 WRs), but with Jefferson out, it jumped to 18.2% and his target share climbed to 19.0%.

Brandon Powell led the WRs in air-yard share (39.1%) and targets (5) as the Vikings tried to make a comeback. So both are solid adds. And against Chicago in Week 6, both should be considered in starting lineups.