Week 7 Waiver Wire Report. Michael Mayer is Breaking Out.
On the bright side, Week 6 gave us another chance to learn more about these teams.
The Vikings showed us what life after Justin Jefferson looked like (dark and painful). And Cleveland reminded the league how much of a problem they can give opposing offenses.
But injuries became the larger story as the day progressed.
We knew the Giants, Colts, and Browns would have their backup QBs playing on Sunday. However, Tyson Bagent (Bears), Brian Hoyer (Raiders), and Malik Willis (Titans) getting on the field wasn’t part of anyone’s plan. But with our thoughts about each offense shifting, let’s dig into the best pickups for Week 7 to churn our rosters and keep up with the ever-changing NFL landscape.
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Injury Round-Up
- 49ers
- Christian McCaffrey (oblique)
- Deebo Samuel (shoulder)
- Colts
- Alec Pierce (shoulder)
- Dolphins
- Chris Brooks (ankle)
- Lions
- David Montgomery (ribs)
- Rams
- Kyren Williams (ankle)
- Ronnie Rivers (knee)
Waiver Claims
The List
- Jordan Mason
- Elijah Mitchell
- Zach Evans
- Josh Downs
- Michael Mayer
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell, QB – Commanders
Through six weeks, Washington’s passing attack ranks in the Top 5 in Dropback Over Expectation (+5%). As a result, Sam Howell has top-10 marks in attempts and yards per game. But, of course, his penchant for looking downfield has him taking 5.7 (no, not a typo) sacks per game.
However, he’s been a fantasy QB1 for three consecutive weeks and now faces the Giants. New York’s defense is bottom-5 in passing success rate and dropback EPA and ranks 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Howell is a viable option if you’re looking to replace Joe Burrow this weekend.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%
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Baker Mayfield, QB – Buccaneers
It didn’t show up in the stats on Sunday, but Baker Mayfield has been effective down in Tampa. He sits at 10th in EPA per dropback, ahead of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, with a CPOE of +2.5% (14th). Mayfield’s using play-action at the third-highest rate amongst all starters and throwing about half (49.2%) of his passes to the perimeter. In short, OC Dave Canales is playing to Mayfield’s strengths.
Oct 15, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
In Week 7, Mayfield and the Bucs will host the Falcons, who have given up at least one passing score in every game this season.
With only three takeaways on the season, Mayfield can serve as a deep-league spot starter in Week 7.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%
Running Backs
Jordan Mason, RB – 49ers
San Francisco already hinted at Jordan Mason’s place on the RB totem pole last week.
Even during the first half against the Cowboys, while the game was still (mildly) competitive, Mason handled 20.0% of the team’s carries with over a quarter of the RB totes in short-yardage situations. And then, when things got out of hand, Mason was the first ball carrier to earn a touch with a 42.9% snap rate.
When CMC left Week 6, Mason took over the backfield again, but Elijah Mitchell was also active. Regardless, Mason hoarded 66.7% of the carries with 54.2% of the snaps. However, despite the team missing Deebo Samuel and Mason running a route on 56.3% of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks, the second-year RB didn’t earn a target.
But be sure to stash Elijah Mitchell to see how the workload shakes out if McCaffrey misses any time.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%
Zach Evans, RB – Rams
Kyren Williams’ ankle injury will have him sidelined for at least Week 7. And Ronnie Rivers injured his knee and didn’t return to the game. Accordingly, Zach Evans becomes an interesting stash moving forward.
There's not much to take from Evans' usage in Week 6. His touches didn't come until the fourth quarter while the Rams were comfortably ahead. Accordingly, he saw stacked boxes on 75.0% of his carries resulting in less than efficient results (-0.28 EPA per rush, 25.0% rushing success rate). And on just 14 snaps, we can't draw any conclusions on Williams' potential role in the Rams' passing game (7.7% route rate). But if Kyren's workload is any indication, Evans will get all he can handle as long as he can be efficient with his touches.
Williams’ workload (team rushing share and target share) ranks Top 10 amongst all RBs. The Rams' rusher had the same number of targets as Christian McCaffrey (22), with more rushing attempts per game (16.4) than top-12 RBs like Tony Pollard (14.2) and Bijan Robinson (14.0). The Rams are fifth in EPA per drive with the 12th-most snaps in their opponent's red zone. Evans becomes a priority add based on potential workload, but we'll need to monitor if LA adds anyone else to the backfield ahead of Week 7.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 8%
Kareem Hunt, RB – Browns
Kareem Hunt’s usage has steadily increased since returning to the Browns in Week 3.
- Week 3: 16.1% (rushing share), 13.5% (route rate), 0 (red-zone touches)
- Week 4: 20.8%, 16.3%, 0
- Week 6: 36.4%, 32.4%, 4
Just pick a metric, and Hunt has outperformed Jerome Ford on a weekly basis.
EPA per rush? Better in all three games.
Rushing success rate? Clean sweep for Hunt.
Oct 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt (27) celebrates after scoring during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Ford has a higher adjusted yards after contact per carry in one of their three games together. Otherwise, Hunt has been the more effective player, which showed in Sunday’s win. And against the Colts, who’ve given up at least one rushing score in the past three games, Hunt slides into RB3 territory for Week 7.
Craig Reynolds, RB - Lions
Craig Reynolds deserves a mention, but I’d be conservative with your FAAB dollars here because we’ve been here before.
David Montgomery missed Week 3 after getting knocked out midway through the Lions’ bout with the Seahawks. Reynolds soaked up 16% of the snaps in relief, with Jahmyr Gibbs getting the workload we wanted for the rookie after Detroit drafted him. Regardless, with Montgomery set to miss the following week, we added Reynolds and the Lions decided to split the backfield even further.
Gibbs is yet to practice due to his hamstring injury, and Bam Knight had to go on IR with a shoulder issue. But Devine Ozigbo immediately forced a two-way committee, with Reynolds holding a 63.6% share of the carries (and two targets).
The Lions travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens’ defense that has allowed just one 100-yard rushing day and a single score on the ground to opposing RBs. Even with most of Montgomery’s short-yardage/goal-line role available, Reynolds will be tough to trust in Week 7.
Salvon Ahmed, RB – Dolphins
Miami ultimately made Jeff Wilson inactive for Sunday, and Chris Brooks (third-stringer played special teams) had to take a cart to the locker room. If the Dolphins continue to be cautious with Wilson, Ahmed will slide into the RB2 role, which has been conducive to fantasy scoring so far this season.
While Ahmed doesn’t have the same explosive qualities as the rest of his backfield competition, he has been an efficient runner. Ahmed’s 0.26 EPA per rush sits ahead of Raheem Mostert’s (0.18, albeit on six times as many carries), and the fourth-year rusher’s 1.05 YPRR aligns with the rest of the crew (Mostert 1.24, Achane 1.18). If you have the bench space, Ahmed is worth adding as the Dolphins try to keep their primary assets healthy on their march to the playoffs.
Wide Receivers
Curtis Samuel, WR – Commanders
I’m still pining for one of Terry McLaurin or Jahan Dotson to take command of the Commanders’ passing attack. But Curtis Samuel has forced a troublesome committee.
- Target Share Rank: 3rd (Week 4), 1st (Week 5), 2nd (Week 6)
- Air Yard Share: 5th, 2nd, 2nd
- TPRR: 3rd, 1st, 2nd
- Red-zone target share: 3rd, 2nd, 2nd
Samuel and McLaurin were the only pass-catchers to earn a look from Sam Howell in obvious passing situations. Meanwhile, Dotson mostly got a cardio workout with an 89.7% route rate. With Samuel playing in the coveted slot role, his week-to-week viability in fantasy has a brighter outlook than his teammates.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 10%
Jameson Williams, WR – Lions
I don’t understand how Jameson Williams fits into the offense. Well, at least for fantasy purposes and projecting his role moving forward, I’m befuddled. Let’s focus on the positives between his Week 5 debut and Sunday.
- TPRR: 20.0% (Week 5), 33.3% (Week 6)
- Air yard share: 1.8%, 24.6%
Williams got Jared Goff to look his way more often and ran more downfield. Good! But there’s more to the story:
- Total Snaps: 28, 16
- Target Share: 11.1%, 7.3%
- Route rate: 50.0%, 18.8%
He was on the field less, with even fewer targets than the prior week. Part of the reason could be the Lions’ defense kept the Buccaneers in check. Tampa could only muster two FGs on the day. But Jared Goff still attempted 44 passes, and ancillary players like Craig Reynolds (2 targets), Brock Wright (1), and Kalif Raymond (3) all got in the mix.
Maybe a more competitive matchup against Baltimore is the catalyst needed to get Williams involved more, but for now, it’s hard to project his usage for Week 7.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%
Josh Downs, WR – Colts
Another week, another game with strong usage for Josh Downs. Downs had the second-highest target share for the Colts’ pass-catchers (16.3%) and was the primary WR on the field with Michael Pittman in obvious passing situations (92.3% route rate on third and fourth downs). Plus, he out-targeted Pittman in the red zone (four to two).
There are systemic concerns with Gardner Minshew under center (and Downs’ air yards per target declined with the QB switch), but the rookie WR may see more short-area targets in Week 7 as the Colts play host to the Browns’ pass rush.
Jauan Jennings, WR – 49ers
After Deebo Samuel left the game, Kyle Shanahan split Samuel’s role between two players. Jauan Jennings got the “Deebo Samuel WR” part of the deal, earning 20.0% of the team’s targets over the final three-quarters of the game. He primarily operated from the slot (75.0% route rate from the interior) but had the second-highest TPRR on the squad (25.0%) behind Brandon Aiyuk (36.0%).
Aug 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings (15) before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
If Samuel sits, Jennings has WR2 potential, as interior receivers have performed well against the Vikings’ secondary:
- Keenan Allen: 18-215-0
- Adam Thielen: 8-121-1
- Josh Palmer: 7-66-1
- Chris Godwin: 6-51-0
Ray-Ray McCloud also deserves a mention here. McCloud got the “Deebo Samuel Wide Back (or whatever term he came up with)” part of the deal. He only earned two targets, but both were behind the LOS (-1.5 air yards per look) with two rushing attempts. McCloud would be the “manufactured touch” option, which could pay off if you’re in a pinch. Regardless, Jennings should be the preferred option in traditional leagues for Week 7.
Tight Ends
Michael Mayer, TE – Raiders
In a game where Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels were on opposite sides of the field, Jimmy Garoppolo left in an ambulance, and Brian Hoyer played meaningful snaps, things were bound to look weird when it’s all over.
But Michael Mayer earning more targets than Davante Adams wasn’t on my bingo card.
The rookie TE’s 27.3% TPRR was the highest on the squad against the Patriots. Plus, it was Mayer’s first game with a 100.0% route participation from inside the 10-yard line.
Vegas has struggled to find a third option in the passing game, with Hunter Renfrow and Austin Hooper underperforming. Meanwhile, Mayer’s routes, air yards, and targets have steadily increased since Week 3. He hit a league-high 3.41 YPRR for the position in Week 6 and has a favorable matchup against the Bears, which should buoy some of his fantasy value regardless of who has to start under center for the Raiders.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%
Taysom Hill, TE – Saints
The Saints QB/TE/RB played a season-high 46 snaps on Sunday and had the second-most looks from Derek Carr. Taysom Hill ranked third in TPRR (24.2%) behind Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, but he ran more routes in obvious passing situations than Kamara (10 to 7) and played more red-zone snaps than Olave (15 to 14).
The Saints play on TNF and have surrendered viable fantasy performances to other TEs (Jonnu Smith 6-95-0, Kylen Gransen 4-67-0, Travis Kelce 9-26-1). And with Hill’s role around the goalline, he could pop up for a solid game in Week 7.
