I never know what to expect when approaching divisional games.
There’s an “I know what you know” aspect to these matchups that’s tough to quantify. Like, in Week 1 of last season, Justin Jefferson stomped on the Packers with both feet to the tune of 184 yards and two scores. But the Packers adjusted, prompting Jaire Alexander to griddy on JJettas in their rematch.
But the only shots of Jefferson we’ll see will be of him on the sideline. And there’s no Aaron Rodgers on the other side to boost Green Bay’s offense. The 43-point total puts a damper on fantasy expectations. But with the way the Vikings looked on Monday night, we could get a classic shootout at Lambeau Field.
The Vikings Still In The Playoff Mix
On the Minnesota side, let’s give Kirk Cousins some credit. For pocket passers without much mobility, it’d be understandable if their efficiency cratered without their top option. But in the two weeks without the WR2 in PPR PPG, the veteran QB has been just fine:
- Fantasy Rank: 13th
- Adjusted Completion Percentage: 4th
- EPA per dropback: 10th
- Passing success rate: 16th
On a team that’s been pass-heavy in over half their games this season, I’ll take it. Cousins’s willingness to keep firing downfield has been the catalyst for Jordan Addison’s breakout while keeping T.J. Hockenson managers happy (third-highest target share amongst all TEs without Jefferson). But the Vikings' running game still has some problems.
Like, for example, scoring touchdowns. No Minnesota rusher has found the end zone on the ground. However, Alexander Mattison sits at RB21 on the season, so it’s not all bad. Well, until you look at his peripherals.
I’m not calling for folks to roster Cam Akers (yet), but he’s doing just enough to take away from Mattison. When, clearly, he needs all the volume he can get. Through the first half on Monday night, Akers took on 40.0% of the RB carries, matched Mattison in efficiency, and tacked on an extra explosive play. The former Rams RB was also the one on the field earning touches on the Vikings’ final drive to salt away the game.
Mattison has broken fewer tackles on a per-carry basis than Dalvin Cook and is a less efficient receiver than Miles Sanders. And Akers is now biting into his workload. Green Bay has been allowing the fifth-most points to RBs this season, so this may be a bounce-back spot for Mattison. If not, you might see Akers in the waiver column for Week 9. Actually, you might see another Vikings WR, too, if his workload keeps progressing.
No, I’m not talking about K.J. Osborn. He’s already on over 50.0% of rosters. But his teammate Brandon Powell has my eye.
Oct 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Brandon Powell (4) runs the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The 28-year-old WR got on my radar in Week 5 as he earned five targets (the most of any WR) in the two drives after Jefferson went down. But he’s an old, part-time special teams player who (likely) got on the team because he played under Kevin O’Connell in Los Angeles. Plus, the team had already declared Osborn as their X receiver, giving Osborn more fantasy relevance. And yet, Powell’s been a factor worth considering on fantasy rosters:
- Target Share (Weeks 6 and 7): 15.8% (Powell), 14.5% (Osborn)
- TPRR: 15.8%, 14.5%
- Third/Fourth Down: 22.2%, 22.2%
- Red Zone: 25.0%, 0.0%
Granted, Powell has played 68.5% of his snaps from the slot. But Powell has earned looks from Cousins at a similar rate in high-leverage situations and has been the more efficient receiver. And with receivers like Darnell Mooney (6-53-1) and Mack Hollins (3-52-0) getting the best of the Packers’ interior coverage, Powell has sneaky upside with Jefferson still out.
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Love Not Lost, But Still Searching
For the Packers, HC Matt LaFleur needs to turn a few more dials to get Jordan Love back on track. And on the bright side, we’re starting to see some adjustments:
- Play-Action Rate: 25.2% (Weeks 1-3), 28.4% (Weeks 4-7, Week 6 bye)
- Air Yards per Target: 10.6, 8.2
- Dropbacks over Expectation: +1%, -3%
But the results haven’t been there. Even while they were winning or keeping games close earlier in the season, Love’s CPOE sat at -8.1% (34th out of 36 qualifiers). And if the Packers wanted to live in this “downfield, explosive passing attack” world, his lagging accuracy (in hindsight) screamed regression. So, with at least one interception in four straight games, we’re left wondering what to do with the Packers’ passing game.
Christian Watson getting in a practice to start the week is a good sign. Since his return, he’s second in targets and first in air yard share. Romeo Doubs can still claim the WR1 title. However, if we’re expecting LaFleur to take more off Love’s plate, it gives Watson the edge moving forward.
Of the two, Watson has the higher slot rate (22.1%) with an equal number of looks in the intermediate areas of the field. Plus, after three games back, Watson’s 8.4 YAC per reception dwarfs Doubs’s paltry 2.6. If the goal is to put Love in more advantageous situations, players like Watson, along with Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, give the offense a chance to become more efficient against their divisional rival.
Speaking of Jones, let’s start here with the veteran RB.
Pain. Literally and figuratively.
Fantasy managers have likely found replacements for Jones (or are waving the white flag on the ’23 season). But Love and the Packers don’t have the same option. Just using Week 1 as a proxy, Jones was a key part of the offense with Watson still out.
- Most Play Action Targets: Jones
- Highest YAC per reception: Jones
- Most Explosive Plays: Jones (Tied with Reed)
- Highest Rushing Efficiency: Jones
- Most First Downs: Jones
The first two metrics are the most critical to the Packers’ hopes of reshaping their offense. They couldn’t use A.J. Dillon as a one-for-one replacement in Jones’s absence. Over the three-game stretch, Quadzilla ran 47 routes, earned two targets, and gained eight yards. His 0.17 yards per route run ranked 69th out of 72 qualifying rushers. Even with Watson and Reed running downfield, Love could use an efficient option closer to the line of scrimmage if he’s under duress.
And with Brian Flores dialing up plays, Love will likely see a Minnesota defender or two in his face on Sunday.
Oct 22, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) prepares to pass in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota has the highest blitz rate at 56.4%. The next closest defensive unit blitzes at 41.8%. And Jones has the third-worst adjusted completion percentage when facing pressure. But offenses have found a way around the pressure.
The Eagles and Chiefs used their offensive lines to create running lanes for Isiah Pacheco (16-55-1) and D’Andre Swift (28-175-1). But the Packers rank 29th in run block win rate. However, Kyle Shanahan’s approach may give LaFleur some ideas.
The 49ers weaponized Christian McCaffrey’s receiving skills as CMC dropped a 3-51-1 stat line through the air on Monday night. So, assuming Jones suits up on Sunday, expect him to work more into the passing game to keep the offense moving and help get Love into a rhythm.
