We’re approaching the halfway point of the NFL regular season, and we’re starting to get just a smidge of clarity in the standings. However, this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features two teams who have been tough to peg this season.

The Bills were expected to be serious title threats, but they’ve lost two of their past three games and sit at just 4-3 for the year. The Buccaneers were expected to be doormats, but they’re 3-3 and have been competitive in most of their contests.

Who has the edge in this contest? Let’s dive into some of the best bets for Thursday Night Football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

  • Spread: Bills -9.0 (-110; BetMGM)
  • Total: 43.0
  • Moneylines: Buccaneers +350/Bills -450

The Bills have hit a rough patch recently. They’ve dropped games against the Jaguars in London and the Patriots in recent weeks, and they also failed to cover the spread vs. the Giants. Overall, it’s just the fourth time in Josh Allen’s career that he’s failed to cover in three straight games.

While the Bills’ recent form obviously isn’t ideal, their performances are somewhat excusable. The game against the Jaguars in London put them at a major travel disadvantage. They had to play a team that had spent the previous week overseas, so their bodies were much more adjusted. The game against the Giants the following week was also tough from a travel perspective, with teams historically struggling to adjust back to the States without the benefit of a bye week.

Last week’s matchup vs. the Patriots was the worst loss of the bunch, but the Patriots are a team the sharps have been high on for most of the season. They’re much better than their current record indicates, suffering close losses against the Eagles and Dolphins to start the year. If one of those games went their way, public perception of the Patriots would’ve been a lot different heading into last week.

The Bills still stand out as a very good football team. They’re third in EPA/play offensively, and they’re just outside the top 10 in terms of EPA/play on defense. The only other teams that rank in the top 11 on both sides of the ball are the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, and Cowboys, which is pretty elite company.

Allen is having another fantastic year at quarterback, ranking second at the position in EPA + CPOE composite. He’s also fourth at the position in Pro Football Focus grade. He still struggles with interceptions from time to time—his seven picks are tied for third-most in football—but he makes up for it with his ability to generate big plays.

Josh Allen

Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

On the other side, Baker Mayfield has come crashing back to reality after an outstanding start to the year. Through his first four games, he was the No. 5 quarterback in terms of EPA + CPOE composite. Over the past three weeks, he’s dipped to No. 29. Unsurprisingly, the Bucs have not won either of their past two contests, suffering home defeats to the Lions and Falcons while managing just 19 total points.

The loss to the Falcons was particularly concerning. Not only did the Bucs have home field advantage, but they also had a sizable rest advantage coming off a bye. The Falcons’ secondary has also been exploitable this season, yet Mayfield still managed just 5.95 adjusted yards per attempt.

Mayfield’s track record suggests his first four games were likely just an aberration. If he’s truly a bottom-five quarterback, the Bucs do not have the supporting talent to make up the difference.

Thursday Night Football Best Bet: Bills -8.5 (-110, FanDuel)

The sharps haven’t really taken a stand on this game, but the public has been all over the Bills. Buffalo has received 85% of the dollars on just 83% of the bets, causing this number to move from Bills -7.5 to Bills -8.5 across the industry.

It’s always scary to back such a public team—particularly during an island game—and the public took an absolute beating in Week 7. Teams getting at least 55% of the bet tickets went just 2-7 against the spread and posted the worst ROI of the 2023 season.

However, public teams have actually done pretty well this season on the whole. Teams getting at least 55% of the tickets are 46-34-3 overall, and teams getting at least 65% of the bets are 20-14-2.

I still don’t think you want to make a habit of grabbing public teams, but doing it every once in a while probably isn’t a death sentence.

The Bills were listed as 10-point favorites when this line was first released, so their recent performances have created a smidge of value in their favor. The team should also be focused after getting upset by the Patriots: they’re 13-10-2 ATS after a loss with Allen at quarterback.

Unless Mayfield can revert to his early-season form—which stands out as a major outlier when compared to his overall body of work—I don’t see how this game stays competitive.

You can tail the Bills -8.5 on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of $5 or more. Sign up below to claim your offer!

Thursday Night Football Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Josh Allen Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Allen has been a bit more reluctant to tuck it and run this season than in years past. He averaged 7.1 attempts per game over his first five seasons, resulting in an average of 40.1 yards per game. This season, he’s down to just 4.1 attempts per game, and his rushing average has dipped to 21.1 yards.

Diving into his utilization, his designed rush rate has dipped from 18% in 2022 to just 7% this season, while his scramble rate has remained pretty much the same (8% vs. 7%).

However, Allen did have a season-high seven totes in his last game, but he averaged a subpar 2.4 yards per attempt. Allen’s YPC for his career is 5.6, so he should see some progression in that department moving forward.

We have Allen projected for closer to 26 yards on Thursday, giving him a nice cushion over the FanDuel line of 21.5. With the team losing two of their past three games, don’t be surprised if they let Allen off the leash a bit in Week 8.

Rachaad White Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

While the Fantasy Life projections are pretty bullish on White, they’re far from the only opinion. Matthew Freedman has White projected for just 46.9 yards, while other projection systems are even more bearish.

White is someone I’ve never understood the hype on. It’s not like he hasn’t had opportunities; he just hasn’t been very effective. He’s averaging 3.5 yards per attempt for his career and 3.2 yards per attempt this season. He doesn’t get a ton of help from his offensive line, but White has averaged just 1.2 yards after contact per attempt. That’s the second-worst mark for all running backs with more than 30 carries, besting only Jaylen Warren.

Overall, White has eclipsed 39 rushing yards in just two of his six contests, and those have come in double-digit wins. The Bucs are large underdogs in this matchup, so it could be a very negative game script.

Mike Evans Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115; DraftKings)

Death. Taxes. Evans getting 1,000 receiving yards every year. Those are three of life’s great certainties.

It was unclear what Evans’s production would look like with Mayfield under center, but he’s survived through the first six weeks. His production has decreased slightly with Mayfield struggling over the past two games, but he still managed six catches for 82 yards last week vs. the Falcons.

Mike Evans

Sep 17, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) runs with the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

For the year, Evans has operated as the team’s clear No. 1 wide receiver. He’s been targeted on 27% of his routes run, compared to just 24% for Chris Godwin. He also has a massive edge on Godwin in air yards share (38% vs. 25%), even though Evans was limited to just a 37% snap share in Week 4.

Overall, Evans has gotten to at least 60 receiving yards in four of his five full contests this season.

Add in the fact that the Buccaneers could be forced to throw the ball a bunch, and over 56.5 receiving yards seems very doable. We currently have Evans projected for closer to 76.5 yards, and while that’s a mean projection and not a median, playing the over on anything less than 60 seems +EV.

You can tail Evans on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of $5 or more. Sign up below to claim your offer!

Buccaneers at Bills Touchdown Prop

I’m not a touchdown prop guy. I know, I’m real fun at parties. My buddies are all sweating out degenerate stuff like a Noah Gray touchdown during the Super Bowl, while I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.

Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is more willing to live a little. He’s highlighted Josh Allen as a worthy anytime touchdown-scorer play for the Buccaneers at Bills:

"Going back to last season, Josh Allen has now scored a rushing TD in 11 of his last 26 games played… a 42% hit rate. Despite the solid production as a rusher by Allen, we can still target him for an anytime TD in this game on BetMGM at +180 (35% implied probability).

The Buccaneers do have a solid rush defense – that has allowed zero rushing TDs to opposing RBs this year – but they have had their issues with rushing QBs.

Desmond Ridder exploited them last week for a 6-38-TD line as a rusher and, overall, they have allowed three rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks in 2023.

Despite rushing less in 2023, Allen has good goal line and red zone usage as a rusher. He’s taken a 23% carry share when inside the red zone this year for Buffalo and has the third most red zone rushing attempts (11) among QBs this season.

At this price, and with Buffalo sitting with a solid 25.5 implied team total, Allen makes sense as a TD target for Thursday Night."

You can tail Allen's anytime TD on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!

Same-Game Parlay

Same Game Parlays are about telling a story. Is this the week where the Bills reassert their claim to being one of the league's best teams? Will Baker Mayfield bounce back? There are ways to tell yourself a story, correlate your parlay, and ultimately—profit. For more on Same Game Parlay strategy, read this comprehensive breakdown.

For this week’s same-game parlay, I’m going to build my bet around a Bills blowout. You can certainly start that with Bills -8.5, but I’m going to go a little larger. They already have three wins by at least 28 points this season, and if they do cover the 8.5 points, I think they could turn it into a laugher.

The natural next step is to take the under on the Bucs’ point total. If the Bills are going to cover an alternate spread, it makes sense that the Buccaneers don’t score much. Under 14.5 points feels like a solid number.

I’m also going to add in the over on Allen’s rushing prop and Evans's receiving prop since I think they correlate well with a Bills blowout, and I’ll add an anytime touchdown for Allen as well. Even though his rushing production is down for the season, he still has a rushing score in four of his past five games.

Add it all up, and it looks something like this:

Bet slip

I think that offers nice upside without becoming too unrealistic. That said, you could certainly take the Bills on the regular spread or increase the Bucs’ team total if you’re looking to play things a bit safer.

You can tail the SGP on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!

Thursday Night Football betting breakdown