We knew Week 7 was going to be tough. The byes already put us in a bind, and whether it was the Rams’ backfield or waiting to see if DK Metcalf would take the field, Sunday was going to be a long day. But the top scorers out of the early games made things even weirder:
- D’Onta Foreman: 33.0 FPTS (64% rostered)
- Gus Edwards: 21.4 (65.0%)
- Josh Downs: 23.5 (36%)
At least we get most of our stars back this week. Plus, we only have a few injuries to track throughout the week. Regardless, let’s dive into the usage trends after Sunday and see who’s worth picking up at the start of Week 8.
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Injury Round-Up
- Browns
- Deshaun Watson (head)
- Jerome Ford (ankle)
- Chargers
- Gerald Everett (quad)
- Packers
- Christian Watson (knee)
- Luke Musgrave (ankle)
Waiver Claims
The List
- Darrell Henderson
- Josh Downs
- Emari Demercado
- Kendrick Bourne
- Dalton Kincaid
Running Back
Darrell Henderson, Rams
After a week of analysts and beat reporters attempting to decipher Sean McVay’s press conferences, we got our answer.
Zach “Next Man Up” Evans didn’t play a snap. Meanwhile, Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman hoarded all of the touches. And both are still available on the waiver wire. But if we’re looking for the RB with repeatable opportunities conducive to fantasy production, look no further than Henderson.
- Rushing Share: 60.0%, (Freeman) 40.0%
- Touches Inside the 10-yard Line: 100.0%, 0.0%
- Route Rate: 40.6%, 25.0%
- Target Share: 15.4%, 0.0%
Henderson even got all of the two-minute work. With work in nearly every phase of the offense, it was like he never left LA. The Rams have tough matchups before they enter their bye (at DAL, at GB), but Henderson’s volume should make him a priority add for Week 8.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 33%
Pierre Strong, Browns
Beat reporters saw Jerome Ford wearing a walking boot after he exited Sunday’s game in the fourth quarter. Kareem Hunt was still on hand to take some of the work, even scoring the touchdown to give the Browns the lead.
But Hunt came into the game with a thigh injury. And his split with Pierre Strong, sans Ford, hints at Strong having some contingent value should Ford miss time.
- (After Ford’s injury) Snap Rate: 66.7%
- Rushing Share: 71.4%
- Route Rate: 46.2%
Oct 22, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Pierre Strong Jr. (20) runs the ball while Indianapolis Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) defends in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Admittedly, this sample size comes from 12 minutes of play. But it’s not like any other Cleveland rusher registered a snap. And the Browns have a -11.3% PROE across the two games with P.J. Walker under center (Watson was “not sure” if he’d be available next week). If the backfield condenses due to Ford’s injury, with Hunt still managing an injury of his own, Strong earning more work becomes a more significant possibility ahead of Week 8.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 4%
Emari Demercado, Cardinals
OK, so maybe I was just a week behind.
Week 6 was a disaster after seeing Emari Demarcado earn just three touches after finding the box shortly after James Conner went down the week prior. Arizona split the workload across three of their RBs, with Demarcado the odd man out. But things shifted in his favor on Sunday:
- Snap Share: 45.2% (Week 6), 77.8% (Week 7)
- Rushing Share: 20.0%, 92.9%
- Target Share: 2.6%, 15.2%
With the increased workload, Demarcado ranked in the Top 12 in rushing success rate with more adjusted yards after contact per attempt than Jonathan Taylor. But it’s worth pointing out there is some systemic risk to targeting Demarcado.
The Cardinals’ offense has fallen into the bottom 10 in yards per drive over their last four games. Kyler Murray could return soon, but we’re yet to get a credible timeline. Regardless, Demarcado taking over most of the backfield work should keep him in the low-end RB2 conversation.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
Joshua Kelley, Chargers
If a tree falls in the woods and no one’s there, does it make a sound? Yes.
When no one starts Joshua Kelley, will he ultimately score fantasy points? Also, yes.
I’m not recommending Kelley based on his long run. It was great, but he had more carries than what made the highlight reel. And for Austin Ekeler managers, that should have us all on alert.
Ekeler briefly stayed on the sideline, nursing yet another ankle injury. As a result, Kelley’s snap rate jumped to 37.7%, and the Chargers’ backup ran 11 routes. LA’s RB1 finished the game, but stashing Kelley should become a larger priority, with Ekeler still not at 100%.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 1%
Stash: Chris Rodriguez, Commanders
In Week 6, Chris Rodriguez matched Antonio Gibson in touches at four apiece. But three of Rodriguez’s carries came in the second half against Atlanta while the Commanders were up by two scores. And it makes sense Ron Rivera would want to mix Rodriguez into the rotation in a ‘safe’ environment.
Rodriguez did it again on Sunday, and the rookie took the lead in multiple series while their match against the Giants was still competitive.
However, he’s yet to play more than 15.0% of the snaps in a single game. Plus, Rodriguez isn’t part of the passing game. He’s run two routes over the last two weeks.
He’s been the most efficient runner out of the three Washington RBs while seeing a similar stacked box rate as Brian Robinson (27.3% to 38.9%). If we’re starting to see Gibson get phased out of the offense, let’s get ahead of the game and stash Rodriguez now.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 1%
Wide Receiver
Josh Downs, Colts
Another week, another positive day at the office for Josh Downs.
I know what you’re thinking. It was a free play. Kudos and light golf claps for taking advantage of a defense’s hesitation. Half of Downs’ PPR point total came from that one play.
OK, let’s play that game. You know, the game where we take away big plays to justify why we shouldn’t overreact to big performances. If Downs didn’t catch the pass and didn’t have a TD on Sunday:
- His air yard total would drop from 97 to 78, and he’d STILL lead the team in air yard share
- He’d tie Michael Pittman instead of having more targets than him
- Downs would be second in total yards on the team (66) but still have more than Davante Adams (57), Keenan Allen (55), and D.J. Moore (54)
We now have two weeks of Gardner Minshew being the primary QB and Downs retaining his WR2 role on the team. Let’s get his roster rate up as he continues to shine in a productive offense.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 38%
Kendrick Bourne, Patriots
It’s easy to disregard the Patriots’ offense as Mac Jones has continued to flounder. But Kendrick Bourne’s consistent opportunity (five or more targets in all but one game) should have some appeal to managers looking for a short-term fill-in at WR.
Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) and center David Andrews (60) celebrate after a touchdown during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Through seven weeks, Bourne’s 17.7% target share and 24.0% air yard share sit in the Top 20 amongst all WRs. He operated as a deep threat for the first month of the season (13.9 air yards per target), adding volatility to his output. However, his role has expanded as he’s earned more targets.
Without JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bourne leads the New England WRs in slot targets while also matching DeVante Parker in routes downfield. A strong win against Buffalo could be a one-week blip, but with matchups against MIA (where he got nine targets in their previous game) and WAS on the way, Bourne should be a viable WR3 over the next few weeks.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%
Jalin Hyatt, Giants
Jalin Hyatt only earned five looks from Daniel Jones, but having nine targets after two games with Tyrod Taylor is probably just a coincidence, right?
Let’s hope so.
Potential QB controversy aside, the rookie WR has led the team in air-yard share over the last two weeks. Part of Hyatt’s ascension is the stylistic difference between his passers. Since becoming the starter, Taylor has chucked the ball downfield on 16.9% of his attempts.
Jones? 6.1%.
So, there is some risk Hyatt’s 15.5% target share over the last two games (tied for third with Saquon Barkley) will drop once Jones is healthy. However, Hyatt has run more intermediate in-breaking routes on the perimeter, which would provide him with more stable opportunities once the QB change happens.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Dalton Kincaid will likely be the popular TE add for the week. In a down day for the Bills’ offense, the rookie TE worked behind Stefon Diggs as the second pass-catcher in most opportunity metrics. And, with Kincaid’s draft capital and offseason hype, Sunday was all the confirmation bias folks needed to get back on the hype train.
Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) makes a catch during the second half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
But I have thoughts. We’ve seen a game like this before.
Kincaid gave us a 6-43-0 stat line back in Week 2, and we all assumed he was overtaking Dawson Knox, only for Kincaid to earn two targets the following week. The commonality between Weeks 2 and 7? Josh Allen being under pressure.
- Time to Pressure Under 2.5 seconds (3 games): 15.8% (Target Share), 20.0% (TPRR)
- Time to Pressure Over 2.5 seconds (3 games): 9.7%, 12.5%
On the bright side, Allen is looking for Kincaid in the right scenarios. He’s generated the third-most first downs on the team and kept the offense moving. However, he hasn’t separated from Knox.
Even in Week 7, Knox played two more snaps with just seven fewer routes than Kindcaid. They even had similar air yards (37 to 31). There’s no guarantee Kincaid will continue to earn significant looks from Allen moving forward. But as frustrating as TE has been this season (thanks, Michael Mayer), targeting a TE attached to a (typically) productive offense has inherent upside.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
Taysom Hill, Saints
Foster Moreau’s back-breaking end-zone drop aside, Taysom Hill continues to be the TE to roster for New Orleans. Over the last two weeks, he has more touches than Chris Olave. But Hill’s production hasn’t come solely as a receiver:
- Target Share: 13.1%
- Rushing Share: 16.1%
Hill and Alvin Kamara were the only two skill-position players with touches from inside the 10-yard line in Weeks 6 and 7. As a result, Hill has posted top-6 results as a TE in back-to-back weeks. With three opponents on tap who are average to below-average in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs (IND, CHI, MIN), Hill is a worthy addition for Week 8.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%
