Honest question: how mad are you this week if you live in the London area?
The NFL has hosted three games at Wembley Stadium and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium featuring the following QBs:
- Josh Allen (cool, good start)
- Lamar Jackson (now we’re cookin’)
- Trevor Lawrence (solid, no notes)
- Ryan Tannehill (wait, what)
- Desmond Ridder (lol)
Don’t get me wrong, most of these guys are good, if not high-end, signal-callers by most measures. But, objectively, only two of those passers pilot top-12 offenses. Meanwhile, Germany gets not one but two top-10 squads.
Without question, Dolphins-Chiefs is the matchup of the week—but it also has season-long implications. We could look back on this Week 9 bout as the point where we knew Miami was for real. Or, the rest of the AFC will resign itself to another season with Patrick Mahomes as the QB to beat in January.
Miami Dolphins Week 9 Outlook
On the Miami side, the explosiveness of the passing isn’t much of a surprise anymore. Tua Tagovailoa has completed the most downfield passes this season, averaging two per game. But his intermediate efficiency has been especially devastating to defenses.
On throws between 10 and 20 air yards, his 69.1% success rate sits atop the league. And he has two of the best WRs in the league to keep the offense moving.
Oct 22, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs with the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Over the last month, it’s like it’s 2022 again. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both in the top 12 in YPRR. On the season, Hill’s absurd 4.26 YPRR sits over a full yard ahead of the next receiver (Brandon Aiyuk – 3.23). And because of injuries, it’s taken his dynamic sidekick half the season to (literally) get back up to speed. But we should’ve seen this coming.
After missing Week 3, Waddle’s return to the lineup was a modest outing of five targets with 16.0% of the air yards. The anemic air yard share should’ve been our first clue. Since then, it’s grown each week to 44.1% against the Patriots last week.
Even accounting for the Eagles game where Waddle missed time due to a back injury, the third-year receiver ranks third in TPRR (32.5%) right behind Ja’Marr Chase and has three fewer targets than A.J. Brown. His resurgence eliminates any fantasy consideration for the ancillary options (Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson). However, against the Chiefs’ defense, Waddle complementing Hill in production will be one of their keys to success.
But in all the rage about the Dolphins’ passing game, their running game hasn’t gotten the same praise. Specifically, Raheem Mostert’s ability to be an effective rusher at 31 years old is especially commendable.
The former 49er has turned back the clock as he ranks in the top 5 in adjusted yards after contact per attempt, rushing success rate, and forced missed tackle rate. He’s found the end zone in six of eight games, and last week was the first game he didn’t earn a look from Tua. And, if you’ve got Mostert on your roster, I’d be somewhat concerned about his output in Week 9.
For starters, Javonte Williams is the first and only RB to score more than 14.0 PPR points against Kansas City. The other 13 rushers with five or more carries against the Chiefs’ defensive front have averaged 7.7 PPG. So Mostert needs volume to keep his fantasy hopes alive. And even that might be a problem.
Jeff Wilson’s snaps have ramped up since his return from IR and mixed in for early-down and short-yardage carries. Salvon Ahmed has matched Mostert in red-zone touches, and both Ahmed and Wilson bogarted all of the RB targets this past week.
The Miami RB situation is like the Patriots’ backfield frustration between Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Wilson isn’t back to his full workload to be an RB2, and Ahmed isn’t someone fantasy managers should roster. But both are taking away juuuuust enough from Mostert to lower his ceiling. Those six receptions for 30 yards from those two (9 PPR points!) would’ve catapulted Mostert from RB21 to RB9 last week.
But with Ahmed’s snaps on the decline, let’s hope it indicates the trio will reduce to a tandem in Week 9. Otherwise, we’re banking on touchdowns in what would’ve been a game environment to target for Mostert.
Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 Outlook
And on the other side of the ball, I feel like this needs to be said, but no, I’m not worried about the Chiefs’ offense.
A loss like the one to Denver happens every year. We, the football-consuming public, wring our hands and get concerned. And afterward, Kansas City marches through the AFC West and hosts another title game. Not saying this year will have the same result, but they do have a 6-2 record. Let’s breathe a little.
But if I could gripe for a second, I’d complain about the passing game a bit. No, I’m not taking a shot at Mahomes. His 7.1% scramble rate is a career-high, but he’s still top-5 in passing success rate, and the offense averages the fourth-most yards per drive.
I’d just like him, or Andy Reid, to give us some clarity on who will lead the WRs.
Fantasy managers expect it to be Rashee Rice. The rookie receiver from SMU has accrued the most fantasy points over the last four weeks (51.1). The next closest WR has 22.3. But you’d never know it by looking at Rice’s peripherals:
- Air Yard Share: 9.6% (3rd)
- Route rate: 49.7% (3rd)
- TPRR: 22.7% (2nd)
In the words of Killmonger, is this your king?
But it’s not like we can trust Skyy Moore, who did his best Kadarius Toney impersonation with a brutal drop against Denver. And while Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the crew in air yards, his 9.8% TPRR suggests he’s getting in more cardio work than actual work.
Sep 24, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) catches a pass against the Chicago Bears during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Rice’s red-zone target share (four fewer than Travis Kelce) should be enough to keep us interested. And if the Dolphins’ offense forces a shootout, they’ll need as much help as they can get from Rice to keep up.
But maybe all the extra help they need is in their backfield. Jalen Ramsey’s return was as advertised, and any miscommunication between Mahomes and his receivers will likely net a similar result.
I mean, it’s happened before.
So, turning to the RBs as a larger part of the passing game isn’t a wild thought. And the Dolphins have been susceptible to rushers with pass-catching skills throughout the season. Austin Ekeler tacked on 8.7 PPR points to go with his 117 rushing yards and a score back in Week 1. James Cook took his single target for almost half the field (48 yards) a month ago. Luckily, Kansas City has a back with similar speed and ability to create after the catch.
No, I’m not talking about Jerick McKinnon (who did not practice Wednesday and was limited on Thursday). It’s Isiah Pacheco. He ranks 12th in YPRR out of all RBs with 50 or more carries. And he’s averaging 9.1 YAC per reception.
The seventh-rounder from the ’22 class has already secured the RB1 position for the Chiefs. Over the last month, Pacheco has hoarded 80.3% of the backfield carries with more targets (15) than McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined.
The two backups have combined for one touch in the green zone compared to Pacheco’s six.
So, if the downfield attack continues to struggle, Mahomes may look to his RB1 to keep the Chiefs moving on Sunday.
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