On the bright side, the NFL didn’t disappoint on Sunday.
The early slate featured eight games with a projected total under 43 points. Half of them hit the over, the Jets-Giants had to go to OT, and two other matches exceeded their Vegas prediction. But, of course, the reality of the game kept our excitement in check.
We saw five backup QBs take the field on Sunday after injuries to their team’s starters. Plus, we’ve got four squads on bye at the season’s halfway mark. So, let’s dive into the usage trends from last week and see who we can pull off the waiver wire to fill some gaps for Week 9.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
Injury Round-Up
- Vikings
- Kirk Cousins (Achilles)
- Falcons
- Drake London (groin)
- Patriots
- DeVante Parker (head)
- Kendrick Bourne (knee)
- Giants
- Tyrod Taylor (ribs)
- Steelers
- Kenny Pickett (ribs)
- Commanders
- Curtis Samuel (toe)
Waiver Claims
The List
- Trey McBride
- Sam Howell
- Derek Carr
- Taysom Hill
- Will Levis
QB
Sam Howell, Commanders
One sack? Against the Eagles’ defense? Well, I’m sold.
Sam Howell’s PROE actually on Sunday (+17.0%) increased when compared to Weeks 1-7 (+8.0%), and he held his ground despite facing pressure on 32.7% of his dropbacks. His average time to throw was at a season-low (2.4 seconds), while his receivers won downfield in contest-catch situations.
Despite the loss, Washington’s 40.5 yards per drive were the most allowed by the Eagles all season. And with Washington continuing to be a pass-first offense, Howell should be a top streaming option for Week 9.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 38%
You can also target Howell in the Pick'em streets on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
Derek Carr, Saints
Every offense to face the Bears has come away with at least one passing touchdown. Passers like Jordan Love and Russell Wilson dropped three TDs on Chicago. And after watching Rashid Shaheed catch two bombs on Sunday, Derek Carr would be the top streaming option.
But then there’s the Taysom Hill of it all.
Over the last three weeks, Carr has 24 red-zone attempts, which have netted the Saints two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Hill has 12 touches for three trips into the paint. Hill’s 63.6% snap rate to Carr’s 80.0% keeps Carr out of the high-end tier of guys you can grab off the wire. But the Saints are still running the second-most plays per game (70.0), and, like Carr said, Shaheed will be down there somewhere.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 25%
Will Levis, Titans
Want to know an easy way for a QB to get into a waiver column? Throw four touchdowns.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) celebrates on the field after defeating the Atlanta Falcons at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.
Will Levis put up four scores against a formidable Falcons’ defense and now has a short turnaround before facing the Steelers, who are expected to be without Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh was already 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, and Levis was tenth in EPA per dropback despite facing pressure at the 13th-highest rate on Sunday.
His lack of down-to-down efficiency (35.5% success rate) is a concern. However, Levis did have six designed runs to keep the offense moving. Regardless, if you’re scrambling to replace a starter for Week 9, Levis has a viable floor, given the matchup.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 18%
RB
Emari Demercado, Cardinals
On the one hand, Emari Demercado has the role we want for fantasy purposes. Demercado has 38 touches over the last two weeks. No other RB on the team has more than five. And he’s earned every one of them.
The rookie rusher has faced stacked boxes at the 11th-highest rate (42.4%) and still sits in the Top 12 with his 51.5% rushing success rate. Plus, Demercardo’s six targets are more than the other Cardinals’ RBs combined. So we can’t dismiss his opportunity.
But let’s take a look at his situation.
While Demercado’s flourished, Arizona has taken a step back. They’re still running the seventh-most plays per game (67.0) but averaging the third-fewest yards per drive. Even worse, their drives aren’t putting Demercado in the best spot to score, as they’ve run the seventh-fewest red-zone plays.
Kyler Murray won’t make his debut in Week 10, and Cleveland’s only given up two rushing TDs on the season. But, with his involvement in the passing game, Demercado has low-end RB2 upside for Week 9.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%
Devin Singletary, Texans
Honestly, I thought Devin Singletary’s Week 6 usage was a fluke. Houston was missing Tank Dell and making offensive line adjustments. So, Singletary going from a single touch in Week 5 to 15 looked like an experiment. Something they’d fix over their bye week. And they did by making him a steady feature alongside Dameon Pierce:
- Rushing Share: 48.0% (Week 6), 45.5% (Week 8)
- Target Share: 8.3%, 8.3%
- Red-zone Rushing Share: 20.0%, 33.3%
Unfortunately, an injury to Pierce or a script favoring a pass-catching RB are the only enablers to Singletary becoming a reliable fantasy starter. Fortunately, we might have one in Week 9. The Buccaneers have ceded 22 targets to RBs over their last three games. Admittedly, most went to Alvin Kamara (14), but if the Texans can’t get their downfield passing game off the ground, C.J. Stroud could turn to Singletary as an option under duress.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
Let’s start the Zach Charbonnet discourse with some context.
Kenneth Walker started Week 8 with two DNPs before logging a full practice on Friday. So, it’d be fair to say Charbonnet’s bump in usage was due to Walker’s early-week absences. But it was still notable:
- Rushing Share: 19.2% (Weeks 1-6), 31.3% (Week 8)
- Route Rate: 27.1%, 57.9%
- Short-Yardage: 17.4%, 100.0%
- Inside 10-yard line: 14.3%, 100.0%
Sep 24, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26) rushes against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Walker still led the backfield in touches (9 to 7), but he posted a season-low forced missed tackle rate (0.0%) and had his second-lowest rushing success rate. Seattle has another tough matchup against Baltimore in Week 9.
If Walker has another light practice week, we could see more Charbonnet against the Ravens.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 10%
Jeff Wilson Jr., Dolphins
After playing just seven snaps in Week 7, Jeff Wilson took another step forward on Sunday. His snap share only climbed to 24.7%, but he had the second-most touches of the Dolphins RBs (7). Plus, Wilson played in two-minute situations and was the most efficient receiver. And most importantly, his increased workload came at the expense of Salvon Ahmed’s, whose snap rate dropped from 37.5% to 26.0%.
Don’t worry. The production will come. Miami’s offense still averaged the most yards per drive of any team in Week 8. All we need is more time on the field for Wilson, and we’re already starting to see it happen.
But remember, the Dolphins have a Week 10 bye, and De’Von Achane should be eligible to come off IR by Week 11. We may only get a single usable week out of Wilson, so don’t get too aggressive on the wire.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 2%
WR
JUST IN CASE: Tank Dell, Texans
Tank Dell earning a 16.7% target share with fewer targets than Noah Brown wasn’t on my bingo card. But I’m not worried (yet). Carolina brought enough heat to force C.J. Stroud to get rid of the ball at the fastest rate on Sunday (2.52 sec average TTT).
As a result, Brown (50.0% slot rate) had a higher TPRR and air yard share. We just watched the Bills use their downfield WR2 to their advantage (12-87-1) against the Bucs. I’m expecting the same approach for Dell in Week 9.
JUST IN CASE PART II: Jahan Dotson, Commanders
Curtis Samuel’s toe injury brought Jahan Dotson back into the fold. His target share soared to 19.6% with a season-high ten targets. And we already knew Howell would look for Dotson downfield, giving Dotson top-12 upside on explosive plays. New England just let Miami’s speedy WRs shoot right by them for 233 combined yards. If Samuel has to miss any more time, Dotson should be back on our rosters.
Khalil Shakir, Bills
Of course, Dalton Kincaid’s ascension deserved most of our focus. But a byproduct of playing without Dawson Knox was the Bills’ personnel decisions. Buffalo ran 75.0% of their plays with three WRs on the field. Accordingly, Khalil Shakir’s usage jumped:
- Route rate: 71.7% (season-high)
- Target share: 15.4% (season-high)
- Air yard share: 22.6% (season-high)
Shakir ran the most red-zone routes of the ancillary options (e.g., Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield), and he got looks downfield, making him a worthy add for Week 9.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 4%
Quentin Johnston, Chargers
Stop me if you’ve heard this story before. The Chargers were dealing with an injury to one of their WRs and turned to rookie Quentin Johnston to step up.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. He failed. Couldn’t come through. But we saw growth on Sunday night.
Oct 29, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Blake Lynch (53) and safety Jaylinn Hawkins (37) attempt to tackle Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
Earning 25.5% of the team’s air yards isn’t that notable. LA billed Johnston as an intermediate threat, so this makes sense. But his 1.85 YPRR was greater than Keenan Allen’s (1.73). The freshman also generated the second-most first downs.
After (much-deserved) criticism, Johnston’s showing us (and, more importantly, Justin Herbert) that he can help the offense. He’s a speculative add for Week 9 with a tough matchup against the Jets on deck.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 10%
Demario Douglas, Patriots
Demario ‘Pop’ Douglas was second on the Patriots in air yards in Week 7 with one fewer target than Kendrick Bourne. And through three quarters on Sunday, he led the team in attempts thrown his way. Bourne’s now done for the season with a torn ACL, and DeVante Parker’s Week 9 status is up in the air after leaving the game with a concussion. Douglas slides into the WR1 role for the Patriots against the Commanders, who’ve given up the third-most adjusted fantasy points to WRs.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%
TE
Trey McBride, Cardinals
It made sense that Zach Ertz’s departure would lead to more work for Trey McBride. But I didn’t expect this:
- Target Share: 38.9%, 1st (amongst all TEs in Week 8)
- Air Yard Share: 40.8%, 1st
- TPRR: 38.9%, 1st
- YPRR: 2.64, 4th
Ertz’s highest target share in a single game was 33.3%. He hit marks of 30.0% air yards but never over 40.0%. McBride went above and beyond. Josh Dobbs has the reins for at least another week, but if we get McBride with Murray, you’ll be glad you picked him up beforehand.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 35%
Taysom Hill, Saints
Juwan Johnson being back in the lineup was a concern for Taysom Hill coming into Week 8. And Hill’s route rate did drop to 38.7% after averaging a 61.3% rate over the previous three games.
But Hill and Alvin Kamara were the only Saints’ skill-position players with double-digit touches. Johnson did play the most snaps when New Orleans got in the red zone (10) and earned a target but whiffed on the attempt. Meanwhile, Hill ran in two scores.
Hill’s combination as a receiver and rusher brings him weekly upside, regardless of route participation. He’s seen at least two red-zone touches per week since Week 5. And with the Saints running 70.6 plays per game (second-most in the league), Hill should remain in the top-12 discussion each week.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%
Logan Thomas, Commanders
I already mentioned Dotson benefitting from Samuel’s injury, but Logan Thomas also got a slight boost. The veteran TE’s overall usage stayed relatively similar (no change in target or air yard share), but he was the only other pass-catcher to earn a red-zone target. Subsequently, he converted the opportunity into a TD. Thomas has finished as a TE1 in three of five weeks while the Commanders’ passing game was at full strength. If the target tree gets condensed, Thomas has potential in Week 9.
