What Could Have Been. How Every Other Team Could Have Made the Super Bowl.

Planet Earth has been non-stop previewing Chiefs-49ers over the past week and a half for good reason: The NFL’s top two teams earned their way to the Super Bowl and accordingly have 60 minutes to obtain immortality in the eyes of football faithful.

Fantasy Life certainly has you covered with that goal. From best bets, to utilization, and even a breakdown of “the other guys” involved. There are limitless angles for fans, bettors, and fantasy diehards alike to get their fix ahead of Sunday.

Of course, there are also 30 other teams sitting at home still wondering what the hell happened. Some were close to playing this week, others … not so much.

What follows is a breakdown of exactly how every other team *could* have punched their ticket to Super Bowl XVIII. Surely fans will treat this light-hearted exercise with rationality and clear eyes and not get too worked up; teams are ranked by who seemingly had the most realistic chance of actually making this happen.

What if one or two plays went differently

• Baltimore Ravens
• Detroit Lions
• Green Bay Packers
• Buffalo Bills

And we’re seriously talking about only one or two plays.

Ravens WR Zay Flowers was inches away from breaking the plane of the end zone before Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed made a brilliant play to force the fumble. It also would have been a lot cooler if Lamar Jackson hadn’t thrown this ill-advised interception into triple coverage to cap off a 12-play, 74-yard drive in the fourth quarter.

While the mainstream media spent days ridiculing Lions head coach Dan Campbell for his fourth-down decision-making, the narrative could have been quite a bit different had Josh Reynolds simply caught the well-thrown original fourth-and-two attempt (or even a separate second-half third-and-long target). There was also this borderline drop by Jameson Williams on what could have been a go-ahead fourth-quarter TD. Oh, and Campbell did actually mess up late by calling a timeout with 1:00 remaining and thus forfeiting the chance to get the football back.

All in all, this was particularly rough. Sorry, Lions fans.

And then we have the Bills and Packers, who certainly shot themselves in the foot (looking at you, Stefon Diggs and Jordan Love), but also had to deal with reasonable missed fourth-quarter field goals during their respective three-point losses.

The weather wasn’t perfect in either game; just realize both Packers K Anders Carlson (41) and Bills K Tyler Bass (44) missed field goals in a range (40-49 yards) that was converted 79.6% of the time during the 2023 regular season.

Can Elon Musk invent anti-choke medicine for January already

• Dallas Cowboys
• Miami Dolphins

The NFL’s top-two scoring offenses picked the worst time to have a bad day last January.

While Dak Prescott and company would eventually rack up 510 total yards and 32 points, two crucial first-half interceptions resulted in a red-zone possession that quickly turned into a TD as well as a straight-up pick-six. The latter mistake was Prescott’s only interception returned for a score on the season after having a league-high three such turnovers in 2022; it was a true gut punch and served as an early dagger for Cowboys faithful.

And then there’s the Dolphins, who scored a season-low seven points during their freezing Wild Card loss at Arrowhead. Consider: The only time that head coach Mike McDaniel was held to fewer points as a major coach was literally his first game as the 49ers’ run game coordinator … back in 2017.

Tua Tagovailoa posted single-game lows across nearly every meaningful efficiency metric before redeeming himself posting the worst score of any QB in the Pro Bowl’s Precision Passing event.

Defense wins championships

• Philadelphia Eagles
• Los Angeles Rams
• Houston Texans

And none of the Eagles (29th in EPA allowed per play), Rams (20th), nor Texans (14th) exactly had a good one.

Note that the latter team’s above-average rank had a lot to do with playing the NFL’s single-easiest passing schedule that featured a remarkable run of six consecutive backup QBs before getting flamed by Lamar Jackson and company in the Divisional Round.

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the ball during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, these three offenses also didn’t exactly show up when it mattered most down the stretch (or the entire month of December if we’re just talking about the Eagles). Could you name a single player on the Rams' defense not named Aaron Donald if I offered to give you $10 right now?

Ultimately, the Eagles found out that losing five defensive starters to free agency isn’t ideal, while the Rams and Texans simply weren’t complete enough squads to make it during a season where they admittedly overachieved vs. expectation to begin with.

Offense wins championships

• Cleveland Browns
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield both had their moments down the stretch.

Also yes, we’re still talking about two QBs who still had plenty of flaws.

Flacco’s 309-yard, three-TD effort against the Jets was truly remarkable, but the offense’s pass-happy approach and big counting numbers helped hide the fact that he was one of just seven QBs to post a turnover-worthy play rate of at least four percent last season. Losing their original starting QB Deshaun Watson and the team’s top three offensive tackles in Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin, and Dawand Jones to season-ending knee injuries also didn’t help.

Meanwhile, Mayfield’s prolific playoff performances against two (rather terrible) pass defenses didn’t fully make up for a season that wasn’t always smooth sailing. Drops didn’t help, but Mayfield’s -0.2% completion percentage over expected ranked 23rd among 45 qualified QBs, around guys like Will Levis (-0.4%) and Sam Howell (-0.4%).

Did both Flacco and Mayfield have some fun highs and prove they absolutely have enough in the tank to be a starter or high-end backup in 2024? 100% – but ultimately they couldn’t quite hold up their end of the bargain enough when it mattered most despite being equipped with two of the league’s top-seven scoring defenses.

If only God turned off injuries for QBs

• Los Angeles Chargers
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Minnesota Vikings
• Arizona Cardinals
• Chicago Bears
• New York Jets
• New York Giants

Obviously, not all of these teams were created equal as contenders. Only the Chargers, Bengals, Vikings, and Jets qualify as having more than a puncher’s chance at making a legit playoff run even with the benefit of a fully healthy signal-caller.

That said: Injuries suck, man. Each of Justin Herbert (broken finger), Joe Burrow (wrist), Kirk Cousins (Achilles), Aaron Rodgers (Achilles), and Daniel Jones (ACL) ended the season on injured reserve, while both Kyler Murray (knee, 9 missed games) and to a lesser extent Justin Fields (thumb, 4) never quite had a full opportunity to make a playoff run despite experiencing some legit highs along the way.

Fans of, you know, football should be particularly excited about watching a fully healthy Murray unleashed on the NFL again in 2024. I don’t blame anyone for not paying too much attention to the Cardinals down the stretch of last season, but this group was good down the stretch and could be a contender to make a leap with some improved weaponry alongside a somewhat decent defense.

What if the schedule gods had lined up a string of backup QBs

• New Orleans Saints
• Indianapolis Colts
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Seattle Seahawks
• Denver Broncos

None of these teams were exactly great in 2023, but they did have enough highs along the way to wind up only missing the playoffs by a hair.

Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) stands in the pocket against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

• The Saints won four of their final five games and finished the season with the NFC’s third-best point differential (+75). However, they wound up being eliminated in Week 18 when the Packers took down the Bears to snatch the final Wild Card seed.
• The Colts were a brutal drop away from potentially taking the Texans’ playoff spot in a win-and-get-in Week 18 matchup.
• Trevor Lawrence overthrew an open Calvin Ridley late in the Jaguars’ eventual Week 18 loss to the Titans, ending the team’s opportunity to win the AFC South.
• The 9-8 Seahawks were feisty for much of 2023, boasting wins over playoff teams like the Lions, Browns, and Eagles in addition to narrow one-score losses to the Cowboys and Rams. Sadly, they joined the Saints as teams who were forced to watch their playoff hopes evaporate due to Jordan Love and company getting the job done against the Bears in Week 18.
• Russell Wilson led the Broncos to five consecutive wins over the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns in the year 2023. That happened. Unfortunately, Russ was benched allegedly due to his refusal to change his contract after a Week 15 loss to the Lions, ending any hopes of the Sean Payton-Russ experience having a happy ending (pause).

Needed Andrew Luck to come out of retirement

• New England Patriots
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Tennessee Titans
• Atlanta Falcons
• Las Vegas Raiders

Each of the Patriots (No. 6), Raiders (No. 8), Steelers (No. 9), and Falcons (No. 10) boasted top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play last season, while the Titans at least ranked 16th in scoring and have earned the benefit of the doubt as a “tough” football team under former head coach Mike Vrabel.

The problem, of course, was the QBs involved:

• Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe ranked 33rd and 34th among … 34 qualified QBs in PFF passing grade this season.
• Kenny Pickett was a healthy scratch down the stretch and has become best known as a meme surrounding other QBs somehow equalling his career achievements in a remarkably shorter amount of time.
• Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis combined to throw for just 12 TDs and both ranked outside 24th or worst in EPA per dropback and PFF pass grade on the season.
• Desmond Ridder ranked 32nd in EPA per dropback and joined Mac Jones as the league’s only QBs with a turnover-worthy play rate north of five percent. Some of the interceptions were truly horrific.
• Aidan O’Connell and company will always have that 63-21 victory; just realize the Raiders joined the Panthers and Patriots as the only teams that failed to score more than 21 points in at least four games. Imagine what this group would have looked like without Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. 

Divine intervention

• Carolina Panthers
• Washington Commanders

The NFL’s only two teams to boast bottom-10 scoring offenses and defenses without suffering a major injury under center. These teams were largely expected to be horrible entering the season and were somehow worse. Basically, the living embodiment of that “Our expectations for you were low but HOLY F*CK” meme.