The baseball schedule is on the light side on Thursday, with only six games to choose from. Two of those games will come as a doubleheader, which further limits our betting opportunities. The lines for Game 2 of the doubleheader will be impacted by what happens in Game 1, so we really just have five games to look at.
Still, that doesn’t mean we take the day off. There are still values to be had; we just might have to think a bit more creatively than usual.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for Thursday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Thursday, April 4
New York Mets ML vs. Detroit Tigers (-135; BetMGM)
I tried to bet the Mets on Tuesday and Wednesday, but Mother Nature has not cooperated. That sets up a double-header for Thursday, with the first game taking place at 12:10 p.m. ET. That contest will feature the pitching matchup that was originally scheduled for Tuesday: Adrian Houser vs. Casey Mize.
Mize was once considered a big-time pitching prospect, but injuries have sidelined him for nearly two full years. He might be able to recapture some of his upside, but it’s far from a guarantee. The major projection systems have him pegged for an ERA between 4.61 and 4.85, which is around the same mark as Houser for the Mets (4.45 to 4.66).
The difference here is the offenses. The Mets haven’t looked the part to start the year, but they’re due for some positive regression. They were an above-average offense against right-handers in 2023, ranking 11th in wRC+, but they’ve gone just 3-17 with runners in scoring position through their first four games. They have nearly the same exact lineup as last year, so there’s no reason to expect them to continue to struggle.
The Tigers are due for some regression in the opposite direction. Each of their first three wins was by just one run, and two of their four wins have come in extra innings. They’ve also exceeded expectations with runners in scoring position.
Add it all up, and this looks like a great spot to back the Mets to pick up their first win.
Chicago White Sox-Kansas City Royals Under 8.5 runs (-120; PointsBet)
The big development here is the weather, which features winds blowing in at approximately 13 miles per hour. That’s had an impact on the total, driving it from 8.5 to 8.0 across most of the industry. That said, there are still a few juiced 8.5s out there, and I recommend grabbing one while you can.
Not only are the conditions favorable, but these teams have struggled offensively to start the year. The Royals are roughly league average in wRC+, but they’ve been worse against right-handers than left-handers. The White Sox are merely 27th in wRC+ overall.
Both teams also boast respectable starting pitchers. Seth Lugo pitched to a 3.57 ERA as a starter in 2023, and he tallied six scoreless innings in his first outing of 2024. Mike Soroka hasn’t had the same level of recent success, but he did pitch to a 2.68 ERA across 29 starts in 2019. Let's hope he can catch lightning in a bottle for one outing.
More MLB Bets for Thursday, April 4
Pirates at Nationals: Yes Run First Inning (-120) – The “YRFI” seems promising for the Pirates-Nats game on Thursday. It features the highest total of the day at 9.0 runs, and both starting pitchers have struggled in first innings historically. Josiah Gray has a career first-inning ERA of 5.50, while Martin Perez is at 4.43.
Guardians-Twins Under 7.5 runs (-115) – This is a sneaky-good pitching matchup between Pablo Lopez and Tanner Bibee, and this total has actually reached 7.0 at DraftKings. Lopez is one of the most undervalued starters in all of baseball, while Bibee had a 2.98 ERA and 3.52 FIP as a rookie in 2023. Neither of these offenses is particularly potent either, especially with Royce Lewis on the shelf.
Lance Lynn Under 5.5 strikeouts (-125) – Lynn was once an elite strikeout pitcher, but those days are in the past. He still gets his fair share of punchouts, but only because batters do massive damage on basically every ball in play. Lynn lasted just four innings in his first start, and while the Marlins are a solid matchup, I wouldn’t expect more than five innings on Thursday. That’s going to make it tough for him to get six strikeouts.
