The NBA is entering the home stretch, with most teams looking at around 25 games remaining on their schedule. It’s the time to make that final push for a guaranteed playoff spot, home-court advantage, or to punch a ticket to the play-in tournament.

Friday features nine games to choose from, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market. Let’s dive into a few of my favorite plays for tonight’s slate:

Chicago Bulls (+4.0) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-108; DraftKings)

The Bucks have seemingly turned things around after the All-Star break, winning four straight games while looking significantly better on the defensive end. They’ve held three straight opponents to less than 100 points after allowing 118.8 points per game during the first half of the year.

That said, Milwaukee hasn’t exactly been challenged of late. Their past three wins have come against the 76ers and Hornets (twice), so it’s not that surprising that the Bucks have looked better. Philly is merely 24th in offensive efficiency over their past 10 games, while Charlotte ranks dead last.

The Bucks will face a stiffer test vs. the Bulls, who have been basically a league-average team over their past 10 games. They’re 15th in Net Rating over that time frame, resulting in a 5-5 record.

This also stands out as an excellent situational spot for the Bulls. They’re coming off an off day, while the Bucks will be on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. Milwaukee is also just 10-13 ATS as a road favorite, while Chicago is 8-4-1 as home dogs. I’ll grab the four points with the Bulls in this matchup.

You can tail the Bulls at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets when you sign up for a new account below:


Sacramento Kings (+6.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves (-108; DraftKings)

The Kings are a team I have been down on for most of the year. Their offense isn’t nearly as potent as last year – when they led the league in offensive efficiency – and they remain a subpar defensive squad. The result is a Net Rating of +0.3, giving them an expected record of 29-29. They’ve actually gone 33-25, so they seem due for some negative regression.

Still, I like the idea of grabbing the points with the Kings on Friday. The Timberwolves stand out as a good matchup for them. Minnesota has been the best defensive team in the league this season, allowing just 107.7 points per 100 possessions, but Sacramento can score the ball against anyone. Conversely, the Timberwolves are merely 17th in offensive efficiency.

If the Kings can score the ball like they typically do, I don’t think Minnesota can score enough to run away from them. They’ve already won once in Minnesota earlier this season, and they should be fully focused coming off back-to-back losses. They’re now a full game behind the Pelicans for the final guaranteed playoff spot, so they can’t afford a three-game losing streak.


Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors Over 237 (-110; Caesars)

Here come the Warriors. Golden State has won 10 of their past 12 games, with the lone losses coming against the Nuggets and Clippers. Those are two of the favorites to win the championship, so they’re playing as well as anyone at the moment. They’re third in Net Rating over their past 15 games, outscoring opponents by an average of +8.8 points per 100 possessions.

The team has made the decision to move Klay Thompson into a reserve role, and that has worked out perfectly for both parties. Thompson has increased his field goal percentage from 41.5% to 46.1% while coming off the bench, and he’s increased his 3-point percentage from 38.6% to 44.1%. With Chris Paul also rejoining the rotation recently, the Warriors appear poised to make a run up the standings.

You could look to back them on the spread vs. the Raptors, but I’d rather play the over. Toronto has been a major defensive liability this season, and things have only gotten worse since acquiring Kelly Olynyk. They’re allowing 117.0 points per 100 possessions in seven games with Olynyk, and they’ve gone over 237 points in four of their past five games.

You can tail the over at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!


Cody Martin Over 4.5 assists (+130; DraftKings)

Things have gotten pretty desperate for the Hornets. They’re still playing without LaMelo Ball, while the team traded away Terry RozierGordon Hayward, and P.J. Washington before the deadline. That leaves them with an extremely young core moving and virtually no natural playmakers.

Tre Mann has taken over as the team’s starting point guard, and he’s fared well in that role. However, Martin has also been asked to pick up the slack as a distributor. He’s averaged 4.8 assists over his past 10 games, and he’s handed out at least five dimes in three straight contests. That includes seven assists two games ago vs. the Bucks, despite playing just 22.2 minutes and the team scoring just 85 points.

The offense should look significantly better Friday vs. the 76ers. Philly has been a disaster defensively since losing Joel Embiid, and they’re 23rd in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. The 76ers are still heavy favorite, but Charlotte should at least be able to put some points on the scoreboard.

There are two ways to play Martin’s assist prop on Friday: You can grab the over on 3.5 at around -165, or you can shoot for the +130 payout on 4.5. The former is obviously a bit safer, but given the matchup, I’ll go for the bigger upside.


Deni Avdija Over 13.5 points (-120; BetMGM)

Avdija returned to the Wizards’ lineup on Thursday following a three-game absence, and the Wizards wasted no time throwing him to the wolves. He played a staggering 43.3 minutes in the overtime loss, with no one else on the squad logging more than 37.3. There’s always a chance that the Wizards could limit Avdija on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s fully expected to be in the lineup.

As long as Avdija is 100%, he should be able to get to 14 points vs. the Clippers. It’s a tough matchup, but Avdija has been scoring the ball at an excellent level of late. He racked up 15 points in his return on Thursday, and he averaged 20.8 points over his final eight games before getting injured. The Wizards are massive underdogs vs. the Clippers, but I think Avdija will hold up his end of the bargain.

You can tail Avdija at BetMGM, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place just a $5 bet!